Crunch Time: JMU v. Villanova Preview
Now things get interesting! The Dukes visit #23 Villanova this week with all of their goals still achievable, the QB controversy solved (unfortunately by injury), sports betting sites making them a one point favorite, and coming off what has to be their most confidence-building performance of the season in last week’s thrashing of Maine.
Just to lay out the playoff scenario again for the Dukes: 7-4 will VERY likely NOT get anyone in this year so the Dukes absolutely need at least this game or the ODU game to clinch a bid. Two wins VERY likely wins the CAA, the Automatic Qualifier, and a Jeff-Bourne proof seed in the playoffs. Villanova is currently 6-3 with JMU and a trip to fading rival Delaware remaining. This is simply an enormous games for both programs.
The Basics
Villanova may have been even more inconsistent than the Dukes to this point in the season. Like the Dukes, the Wildcats lost at Richmond. Unlike the Dukes, they are coming off their worst performance of the year after giving up a whopping 49 points at home to Towson last week. However, it’s impossible to overlook that this same team went to Norfolk and laid their pimp hand down on Old Dominion just three weeks ago in a 38-14 beatdown of the Monarchs.
Villanova is usually very well-coached by Andy Talley and company and plays a somewhat odd 3-3-5 defense that has often given JMU a hard time in the past. With Birdsong injured, it’s likely the Cats will be ready to stack the box against our zone-read and it will be interesting to see if MM/JD do anything at all to throw them off.
On offense, Nova has a big-time target in Norman White at WR. He missed all of last season with an injury, but was a CAA-killer in his freshman year and is back at full strength now. Interestingly, he’s an extra-tough cover this year because Villanova has quietly transformed themselves into a juggernaut rushing team led by rFr. QB John Robertson and hard-nosed RB Kevin Monangai. We actually like this matchup as almost no one has been able to run the ball consistently against the Dukes D this year although the threat of White over the top is scary given our somewhat inconsistent play against the pass.
Also Monitoring the Situation – Villanova has had its own controversy regarding their decision to stay in FCS or move up to FBS the last few years. As many of you know, this is the battle for the House Cup in my home as my wife is a Villanova alum. The truth is she, like a ton of alums, doesn’t really give a turd about football so long as Jay Wright and the boys are getting it done (more on that later). They’ve never been close to developing a strong following or filling there decrepit old stadium on the Main Line. Back when the Big East was a real conference just a short 18 months ago, Villanova sat on their choir robes, “monitoring the situation” so long in making a decision on their invite to join the BigEast in football that then-BE members WVU and Pitt led a conference-wide revolt to rescind the invitation and Nova was left out. Just like JMU, there are alums and supporters with wildly divergent opinions on the subject. One thing that may be increasingly clear when the ball is tossed next week though is that at least in part due to the Big East’s changing nature and Villanova’s awkward place in the conference, Jay Wright and the boys may not be getting it done much longer. If they run him out of town Philly style, or he leaves when the lack of football revenue means he can find a better option elsewhere, you can bet there will be as much hand-wringing in Nova Nation as there is in the ‘Burg.
Beer of the Week
This week’s selection is reflective of the change in the weather as you can finally justify breaking out the stouts again! We’ll go with TenFidy from Oskar Blues in Colorado. The Dale’s Pale Ale guys also the best canned stout around (non-Guinness category of course).
Coverage
Unfortunately, this one is internet-only, available at this time only through Nova Nation All Access. This is a CBS site which is not our favorite, but if you’re willing to pay the $9.99, it’s very easy to cancel your subscription right after the game (we’ve done it a few times already). Thanks to Nova’s heavy usage for their “somewhat” more prominent hoops product, our experience has been that they do a decent job where places like UMass and URI that have similar CBS-owned products have been terrible lately.
One other score to keep an eye on this weekend is the Lehigh/Colgate game. All teams with at-large hopes are REALLY rooting for Lehigh, who comes in a 3-point favorite and as the only undefeated team in FCS, would likely get in to the playoffs either way while Colgate would be stealing a bid by making the Patriot a two-bid conference.
Prediction
Dukes got it cranked up last week and this week we think they’ll start to prove they’re serious about mounting a run! Dawgs 24, Cats 16.
Umm you accidentally said “this game OR the VILLANOVA game” and this just proves to me how much you hate women…
Haha, thanks Sean, fify
Another great article, Todd. The Blog continues to deliver and keeps this alum well informed down here in the dirty, dirty. Keep it up, guys!
Way to sneak a “Monitoring the Situation” in there. I also like this match-up. Nova’s rushing attack has been great all season, but the Dukes run D has been pretty solid. I’m feeling good about this one.
“and it will be interesting to see if MM/JD do anything at all to throw them off.”
I’m going to go with NOPE.
Mike! Awesome to hear from you and thanks for the good vibes! Hope you and Sheehan are holding it down for the Dukes down south. We’ll pick you up on the way to the semis in Statesboro, we hope!
JT is AWFUL!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t care that the GInger Giant is hurt I want anyone but JT at QB. JMU cannot win with him at QB.
C’mon! Have a little pride guys! Guess we are taking the week off since we finally put a complete game together last week. Keep it up you are on the verge of getting another 40 weeks or so off after next week!
ODU is already licking their chops.
Make my prediction now
ODU 56
JMU 14
two safeties in one game….you gotta be kidding me. Just throw the freaking ball up for grabs like you always do JT.
I bet the high powered JMU OFF will make that ODU DEF look pretty dang good. And I’m sorry but I question if a team that gives up 2 safeties in a game should be thinking about playoffs. More like Pretender than Contender today. This Mickey/JT ball is killing me! Wonder what I should do with the mail I received today about the process for ordering playoff tickets?
Put it in the delete folder.
I am so tired of the JT love affair by MM….I swear JT has been a thorn in the JMU offense for about 10 years so far.
“and it will be interesting to see if MM/JD do anything at all to throw them off.
I’m going to go with NOPE.”
Correct. I was thinking the exact same thing before the game, in the second half (adjustments…maybe), and still thinking about it afterwards.
Once again we get out coached. Our offense is awful. We have LEGIT ATHLETES AT EVERY SKILL POSITION! There is ABSOLUTELY NO excuse for our offense to be playing so poorly. I’d hate to start the FIRE Mickey Matthews vibes but maybe it’s time. Or maybe it’s not because I don’t know if JMU is an attractive enough opportunity to bring in anyone better. Either way we need to find a new OC with a creative mind…yesterday. Ole Mickey can stick to coaching D and recruiting.
My prediction for next week (which is going to f’n kill me because it will be my first time back in 4 years):
ODU 42
JMU 27 (27 points only because ODU’s defense is soft)
It’s going to be a track meet. Heinke is going to pick our defense apart. If we can pressure him and hurt him a little bit…we have a slim chance of getting the W.
With that being said….I’m still going to tailgate like a BOSS and cheer my ass off during the game. Hopefully my prediction is wrong and my wife can actually enjoy our weekend in Harrisonburg and 4 hour drive back to the 757.
Go Dukes!!
You hit the nail on the head Easy 04.
JMU needs to can the pistol formation, along with OC-Jeff Durden and JT. Think of them as a package deal and they can go do their thing at Bridgewater or something where that crappy, gimmicky offense might work.
Didn’t we get Durden from VMI years ago??…..has VMI ever really been anything offensively?
Any thoughts on Thorpe sticking with the team next year but playing some sort of RB/WR type position? I wonder if he’d be open to that or if he’d just quit/transfer.
I would like to see Thorpe go….he cannot play QB and we have RBs and WRs. I think he is an example of a bad apple that can ruin the bunch….he should go so we can use the scholarship. He has already had 5 years.
Villanova’s coach even said it….the defense does not have to worry about Thorpe throwing over 5 yards
JMU flat out shit the bed today and I hope they have to sit it all the home on the bus back to the ‘burg. They should be riding a yellow bus the way they played.
Villanova offense vs. JMU defense today
http://thechive.com/2012/10/04/the-deadliest-legs-in-the-history-of-man-video/
Shady P is right… Villanova’s coach flat out said “hey, we watched the film, and Thorpe just doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 or 15 yards down the field. So we just moved the entire defense up and crowded the box and guess what! we won.”
And why is Thorpe’s 6th year of eligibility a good thing?
“Villanova’s coach flat out said “hey, we watched the film, and Thorpe just doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 or 15 yards down the field. So we just moved the entire defense up and crowded the box and guess what! we won.”
I’ve been saying all season that is the way to beat us. Andy Talley must be a fan of jmusportsblog.