Official JMUSB Season Preview
Can’t wait to see this guy again!
As our thirteen long-time readers know, we’re big on weekly “game previews” but have never been too into actual prognostication. We almost always find a reason to believe and a way to pick the Dukes even against our better judgment on a week-to-week basis. But we’ve always tried to be somewhat more realistic on the broader season previews. So with that in mind, here goes.
What the Experts are saying?
We all know the truth about FCS which is basically that even those very few folks and sites that cover this level of football seriously or for actual money couldn’t tell you a damned thing about anyone outside of North Dakota St. and maybe Montana on a year-over-year basis, especially now that [Cr]App. St. and real GSU have moved on (and we’ve got D2 teams like Abilene Christian stopping by for a cup of coffee on their way to blowing by JMU on the FBS highway). So the fact JMU is picked no higher than 7th in the CAA by anyone who covers FCS and as low as 9th by quite a few spots means nothing other than that your eyes weren’t lying when they told you JMU football had slipped to the land of the truly mediocre the last few years under Mickey. It certainly doesn’t mean anything in our opinion about the way JMU will ultimately finish.
How the Schedule Sets Up?
If, and that’s a big IF, JMU can split the first two games, on the road at both Maryland and Lehigh, and if they can make it through the first five games no worse than 3-2, we’d say the schedule actually sets up alright after that all things considered. On the good side, there’s a well-placed mid-season bye in mid-October, toughish Towson and Delaware have to come to BFS, and there’s a four-game stretch to close the season, beginning with W&M (who’s picked above the Dukes almost everywhere but as usual has less than zero at QB1) for Homecoming and ending with Elon at home, that while not easy (trips to SB and JMU East a.k.a. the cute little UR “stadium”) certainly presents a great opportunity to make up ground if needed. The bad part is Maryland may just come too early under our new system to be all that hopeful, Lehigh and Charlotte are both actually kind of tricky roadies and will both be unknown as it’s Lehigh’s opener and who knows how much better UNCC will be with additional schollies this year. The UGLY part is we don’t get Rhode Island this year, but that’s fairly balanced out by avoiding UNH.
Offense
The entire question is whether the team is actually up to speed on the new system. There’s a ton of returning talent on this side and what we all think may be a significant upgrade at QB1 (and at least a wash at RB1 though we’ll always miss DQS and depth may be an issue in the backfield). The system itself is going to be an even bigger upgrade but will the kinks be ironed out in time for a tough early season-schedule?
Defense
Coach Withers has maintained throughout camp that he thinks the front seven will be a real strength. We hope he’s right and we tend to trust his judgment way more than our own, but it’s gonna be awful tough to replace a player like Stephon Robertson, especially if Gage Steele isn’t fully healthy (on that note, not to sound all Mickeyish about it, but NO NEED at all to rush him back for Maryland if it’s a question). In the back is where you’ll find what may be the Dukes’ best player at safety in Senior Dean Marlowe, but it’s the corners that have to improve for JMU to have a big year. We still think there’s talent here (including Taylor Reynolds), they just need to grow up and hopefully be coached up in a hurry.
Special Teams
Wait, there’s a third phase? Can’t we pretend there’s no kicking game and just be happy? No? Well shit. This is where things could get ugly for the Dukes from the summer preview. As always, JMU will have no shortage of high-octane players returning kicks but it’s the other half of the kicking game that looks frightening. Long-time stalwart Cameron Starke graduated and despite an injury-plagued senior year that had some calling for change, those same folks may be dearly wishing he was still here given the atrocities we’ve seen committed in this phase throughout camp. We’re missing extra points. Badly. If necessary, can we please bring in every player on both Dukes’ soccer squads and see if we can find a miracle?
Official JMUSB Season Prediction
9-3 (but shading more on the 8-4 side than the 10-2 side). 3-2 through the first five, then a big roll through the middle of the season and then some awful, unexpected loss (please not the Ticks!). The real keys are the Lehigh game in Week 2 and then managing no worse than a split in the @ ‘Nova, home for UD double in Weeks 4 & 5.
Playoffs?
In a freshly expanded 24-team FCS field, it’s completely inexcusable for JMU to ever miss the postseason in this CAA-Hoops-style-watered-down version of the subdivision. And we think they’ll sneak in to start the Withers era. Doubt we’ll get a home game though.
I hope the Dukes are competitive all season. It is always tough starting with a new coach. I would not be in a hurry to move to FBS though. I will be there for every home game.
One of the quirks of college football that happens time and time again is that a new high-energy coach will show up on campus and suddently a mediocre team will instantly be a contender for a least the first year or two. I don’t know why that happens, but it does.
PS- I don’t mind critisizing individual players because I paid my dues and took it on the chin at times myself. Do not mention “talent” and “Taylor Reynolds” in the same sentance. Last season, he couldn’t cover my grandma. I know he was only a kid, but still….. he’s gotta get a lot better this year. I’ll be rooting for him to make the jump.
Maybe it is the Purple colored glasses but I find the notion that there are 6-8 teams in the CAA with more talent ridiculous. Baffling really.
Hell, I played soccer for 4 years in high school and the ten years before that. Football coaches wanted me as their kicker but due to good judgement on my part, I sat and watched the shit show that is my high school football team from the marching band.
But… If I must… For the Dukes.
2004 Duke, that’s a bit harsh don’t you think?
I think Taylor Reynolds definitely has the talent but I do think his confidence was definitely up in the air last year. We must remember that he was a highly touted Dual-Threat Quarterback just now learning the CB position.
He did play a bit of Safety in High School but, being a HS Safety where he was probably the best athlete on the field at all times is much different than being placed on an island with a player just as fast,quick and tall as you on the other side.
In addition, I think Jimmy Moreland is going to make a big splash as the nickel whether that’s going to be on CB blitzes or DEF swaps. I was at the spring game and this dude can ball.
I find it hard to judge any DB in the Mickey system. Hard to play good defense when your coaches are having you play 12 yards off.
JMUPinoy-
No, it’s not too harsh. Everyone sees you score TD’s, but they also see you screw up. Then you get to read about your screw ups in the newspaper and on the internet for at least a week. It’s part of playing D1 football.
I watched him get absolutely torched time and time again last season. We actually made a drinking game out of it.
I’ll be the first one to defend the kid, though, by saying he was only a freshman. On the flipside, listening to the sportsmedia jock him was rediculous if you actually watched him play. He was very clearly just a freshman, and played like one. I’m almost positive he will be better this year, and continue to get better going forward…. but he better step it up.
M@ made a good point too- it is kind of hard to cover playing 12 yards off the ball. I think the problem I had with Reynolds last year is that he was playing 12 yards off the ball and managed to somehow still find a way to get burned deep on a semi-regular basis.
Not only under the old defensive scheme did the CBs play 12 yards off……they played 12 off to start with and then rapidly retreated to give a huge cushion at the snap of the ball. All the other team had to do was play pitch and catch with 5-7 yard passes all day long. 2004Duke hit the nail on the head, that even with that scheme Taylor would get sucked in on any play-action and get beat over the top. He needed the off-season to get coached up and his confidence back b/c it was shot last year.