2016 JMU Football Season Preview

It’s time. We know you’ve all been patiently waiting for the hard hitting and deadly serious analysis you’ve come to expect from us here at JMUSB. It would be unfair, perhaps even cruel, to deprive you of our knowledge and wisdom any longer. So without further ado, here’s the Official JMUSB JMU Football Season Preview. This preview is absolutely guaranteed to be the most thoroughly researched and carefully constructed piece of analysis you find anywhere on Earth lots of words.

The Big Story

Mike Houston is in his first season as Head Coach of JMU. He took over from Everett Withers, who left the program to take the job at Texas State. Much of the fanbase has taken great pleasure in bashing Withers now that he’s gone, we’re not going to do that. He was the shot in the arm the program needed and he created some much needed excitement in his brief time in the ‘Burg. What he failed to do however was, well, prove he could actually coach football all that well. Despite coming to JMU with plenty of experience coaching on the defensive side of the ball, his defenses always had the same weaknesses. Those weaknesses were primarily players understanding scheme & assignments, tackling, stopping the run, stopping the pass, and preventing teams from scoring at will.

All kidding aside, Withers really did do a lot to get JMU on the right track after a spell of mediocrity. Now with Mike Houston though, JMU might have found a coach who can take the momentum Withers created and translate it to more success on the field.

Houston climbed the ranks from high school, to D2, to the Citadel. And he won lots of football games along the way. Winning at the Citadel, a place with more disadvantages that advantages, is not easy. Houston did that and now he’s at a school with more resources and advantages than practically all its peers. Houston is poised to lead JMU back to being a perennial championship contender. And he happens to have assembled a pretty impressive group of assistants to help him do it.

The Big Issues

In no particular order, the big issues surrounding JMU football heading into the 2016 season are probably the QB battle, the defense, and the transition to a new coaching staff.

Bryan Schor filled in admirably at QB after Vad Lee was lost for the season last year. He was solid, yet not spectacular. Keep in mind though, that he’s only played four games and even Vad Lee didn’t light the world on fire in his first four JMU starts. Houston brought in Connor Mitch, a transfer from University of South Carolina, to compete with Schor for the job. Reports are that both guys have progressed nicely during camp, but neither of them has seized the job. JMU doesn’t really need anyone to match Vad’s output from last year. But the Dukes need someone to earn the job and play the position at a higher level than Schor did last season. It could be Bryan or it could be his competition.

The defense is another huge question mark. Last year’s defense wasn’t good. At all. We’re talking giving up nearly 29 points and over 400 yards a game. Vad Lee and the quick strike offense managed to mask that somewhat by scoring points in bunches. We don’t need to belabor the point here, but it’s going to be a long season if the defense doesn’t play much better this year.

We’re pretty excited about Coach Houston and his assistants. We’re confident that they will eventually have the Dukes in the hunt for championships. There might be some growing pains though. Houston’s teams at the Citadel played some great defense, and then used the option on offense. He’s decided to abandon the option and play a more fast paced spread system that better utilizes JMU’s talents. There are plenty of weapons at his disposal and he’s got a great group of assistants, but sometimes these things take a while to gain traction.

Reasons for Optimism

Vad Lee was sick, but he’s not the only reason JMU’s offense put up such gaudy numbers last season. The offense had some serious weapons, and most of them are back this year. Khalid Abdullah and Cardon Johnson gives JMU arguably its best RB tandem since the days of Raymond Hines and Maurice Fenner. And the receiver position is stacked with playmakers such as Brandon Ravenel, Rashard Davis, and Domo Taylor. If the big guys can handle the line of scrimmage, this offense will hum.

On the other side of the ball, we’re optimistic that things will be better. Primarily because it’s hard to conceive them possibly being worse. Last year’s struggles on defense weren’t due to a lack of talent. The players just never seemed to grasp the scheme. Gaps were missed and guys were routinely caught out of position. With a little more discipline, we think things should improve.

That League Tho

You’ll find no shortage of JMU fans going on and on about why they think JMU needs to take the first train out of CAA town. Let’s push that issue to the side for now and face two facts though. One, the Dukes playing in the league in 2016. And two, the league looks to be very good in 2016. The Ticks are awful and terrible so many ways, but unfortunately they will probably be pretty good at winning football games this year. William & Mary is primed to make a playoff run and Towson is hoping to ride a transfer QB and talented running back to the postseason. Years of following this league have taught us to expect UNH to be in the mix. And we haven’t even discussed Nova in legendary coach Talley’s final year. The “SEC of the FCS” no longer applies, but the CAA is shaping up to be a dogfight.

What It All Means

The Dukes should be good. There’s plenty of talent to get the job done, both on the roster and amongst the coaching staff. The top half of the CAA is loaded though and JMU has a handful of really tough road games at the likes of UNH, Richmond, and Nova. Catch some breaks and address all the ifs (if they get strong QB play, if the D improves, if the coaching transition is smooth) and JMU will be poised to make a run. Of course the inverse is also true as well.

JMUSB Prediction

In Houston we trust. We love what Withers did to reenergize the program. We sincerely believe that Houston has more coaching acumen and the ability to generate more success on the field though. Vad Lee leaves some big shoes to fill, but whoever wins the QB job has a couple of beasts to rush the ball and a plethora of threats catching the ball. The offense probably won’t match last year’s fireworks, but it should be good enough. And it’s hard to imagine the new coaches not helping the defense improve. But the league is tough and the schedule does JMU no favors. We’re guessing 7-4 and sneaking into the playoffs this year, before Houston’s JMU dynasty really gets going in 2017.