JMUSB Game Preview #7: JMU vs. William & Mary

Coach Houston and the Dukes will make the trip to the lesser ‘burg this weekend for a game against our old friends the William & Mary Tribe. It will be the 40th meeting between the two programs. JMU leads the series (obviously), with 22 wins. William & Mary has gotten off to a rough start in CAA play (stop us if you’ve heard this one before), but will look to pull off the upset in front of a sold out crowd of wild and raucous erudite fans. Let’s dive right in.

The Basics

Match-up: #1 JMU Dukes 6-0 (3-0) vs. William & Mary Tribe 2-4 (0-3)
Kick-off: 3:300 PM on Saturday, October 21 at Zable Stadium in Williamsburg, VA
Weather: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s
Broadcast: WHSV in the Valley and streaming here

How We Got Here

JMU defeated Villanova by the score of 30-8 in front of the Dukes’ second largest home crowd ever last Saturday. It was the 18th straight win for JMU, which is the programs longest streak ever and the longest active streak in Division 1 football. Bryan Schor was a very efficient 20 for 28 with 271 yards and 2 TDs. The defense was the real story however. JMU had the Wildcats on their heels all afternoon and completely locked the damn gates. And of course the game was preceded by ESPN’s College Gameday on the Quad. Over 14,000 rabid JMU fans showed up to make it a day for the ages. William & Mary couldn’t get 14,000 people to show up to anything unless it involved cosplay and free points on the GRE.

William & Mary on the other hand, enters the game with zero game winning streak. The Tribe was shut out by Delaware 17-0. The game featured true freshman Shon Mitchell getting his first start at QB. He performed relatively well against a strong Blue Hen defense, completing 18 for 36 for 101 yards and 2 INTs. He did enough to keep the starting job. He’ll lead the home team on Saturday and attempt to add a spark to an offense that has been somewhat moribund all season.

What W&M Is Good At

School stuff, mostly. But the defense is also solid. With an 0-3 record in CAA play and only 2 wins overall, you might assume that the team is weak overall. That’s not the case. The Tribe has talent on defense and the unit has easily been good enough to position the team for a few wins. They’ve only given up 17.7 points per game and have the second best pass D in the CAA (behind JMU).

So What’s the Problem?

Unfortunately for W&M, the offense has yet to find its rhythm. It’s not fair to pin the struggles on a single player, but we can say that the QB play hasn’t been up to the level Tribe fans would like it to be. W&M QBs have only completed 54% of their passes for 139 yards a game. It’s tough to win with numbers like that, unless you have a dominant running game. They don’t. The Tribe running game is solid, but thus far, hasn’t been good enough to overcome the lack of a passing game.

Sounds Like An Easy W for JMU

Not necessarily. First of all, this is somewhat of a rivalry game. And the teams almost always play each other tough. It’s William & Mary’s homecoming, and they’ll be amped up and ready to try to shock the world. Second of all, QB Shon Mitchell will be making only his second start, but he might be exactly what the Tribe is looking for. He’s not your typical cerebral and moderately athletic W&M QB who studies the game and is coached up by Jimmye Laycock. Yes, he is smart (duh, it’s W&M), but he’s also talented. Crazy talented. He broke all sorts of passing records at Oscar Smith High School in the 757 and has the tools to do the same at the college level.

How the Tribe Can Win

Up the intensity, control the clock, and play mistake free football. This isn’t a trap game per se, because JMU has too much respect for W&M to overlook them. But the Dukes have the proverbial target on their backs and W&M will probably be pumped up beyond belief. They need to use that to their advantage and dictate the pace. With their struggling passing game, the Tribe is going to need to run the ball and bleed the clock to win. If it’s a high scoring, back and forth affair, the JMU D will eventually force Mitchell to make some mistakes. We think the young QB has a lot of big games in his future, but the plan is probably for him to be more of a game manager this weekend. Expect lots of short and safe passes in an attempt to build his confidence and avoid turnovers.

How JMU Can Win

Get after Mitchell and make a few big plays. If you think we’re talking about Mitchell a lot, it’s because he’s one of the keys to this game. If he gets hot, he could ride a wave of confidence and lead W&M to a big upset. If he gets rattled though, it’s going to be a very long day for the Tribe. We all saw what the JMU defense did to a couple of inexperienced Nova QBs last weekend. That’s the blueprint. Pressure the QB, knock him down a few times, and then pounce on the mistakes.

Schor will have his full complement of weapons in the passing game. We expect to see him mix it up and take a few shots down field. And it wouldn’t shock us to see the coaches find a way to get the ball to Trai Sharp and Marcus Marshall in space. A couple big plays and an early lead, and the D should be good enough to close things out for win number 19 in a row.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

If you’re not going to have a brew from our friends at Pale Fire Brewing, we’d recommend Sumo in a Sidecar by Evil Twin Brewing. Actually, just have both. It’s the weekend. Sumo in a Sidecar is an IPA, because of course it is. But it’s got a slight twist. It has apricot added. Sounds weird, but it’s delicious. The apricot just rounds things out, more than making it fruity. Not quite a New England IPA juice bomb, but not a piney West Coast IPA either. It’s tasty.

Official JMUSB Prediction

William & Mary is no pushover. Yes, they’re 0-3 in CAA play and fans might scoff at losses to Stony Brook and Elon, but those teams are actually quite good. And so is the Tribe defense. But we don’t think the offense is good enough. This Saturday we think Schor uses all his receiving weapons, the running game makes fans breathe a sigh of relief, and the defense does what the defense does. JMU 31 – William & Mary 10.