JMU at UL Monroe: Official 2024 JMUSB Game #5 Preview

Yes, it is I: NotRob and NotTodd. After torturing my keyboard for years in service of the Dukes, I shamelessly offered my pen in the JMUSB preview department.

I like writing about sports. I love writing about the Dukes. I’ve said this before in other settings, but I actually give Todd & Rob a lot of credit for that. If you time-traveled back to Harrison Hall, somewhere around 2011, you’d have found me frantically reading JMUSB between WRTC classes and Breeze assignments.

After a restless decade with JMU bylines in HERO Sports, the DNR, the RTD, and several other places, I settled down with a day job at BetMGM. Sure, I don’t get to write about the Dukes too much, but I do get health insurance. Life is about tradeoffs, I guess.

Anyway, I mention that because I’ll probably have one or two bonus insights to share from the perspective of someone who works with odds for a living.

Other than that, JMUSB has always had a wonderful, no-nonsense preview formula, so there’s no need to fix what ain’t broken. Here’s my perspective on Week 6: JMU at UL Monroe.

The Basics

Matchup: JMU (4-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at UL Monroe (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt)

Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT, Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA

Weather: Sunny, 80

Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU after JMU’s demolition job in Chapel Hill

Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O/U 48.5

This number opened at JMU -14.5 and was quickly bet down to JMU -16.5 by the end of Monday. The area between 14 and 17 is generally considered to be dead numbers, so it’s no surprise that the tremendous betting appetite around the Dukes is smashing this from one key number to the next. If you start to see JMU -17 or lower before kickoff, it’s a big sign that pros really like the boys in purple.

How We Got Here

I think the best way to think about September is to imagine it as a two-act play of non-conference games.

Charlotte and Gardner-Webb made up the first half. The coaching staff had dozens of new players to see and understand. They staged tryouts. Some stuff worked. Others didn’t.

Week 3 – the bye week – was the intermission. During that time off, the coaching staff tweaked some character roles, changed the set design, and emphasized how great the second act might be.

The second half – North Carolina and Ball State – delivered a thunderous conclusion on a grand stage. The Chesney staff was extremely prepared for the UNC game, then followed it up with a meticulous, business-like destruction of a bad Ball State team. It’s hard to argue with 133 points of offense in two weeks.

JMU now enters non-conference play in Week 6 as the betting favorite to win the Sun Belt. That’s the value a splashy September can bring, since the Dukes were looking up at App State, Texas State, and Louisiana prior to the start of this season.

Three Things to Know About UL-Monroe

On the Rise – UL Monroe has three winning seasons in its history as an FBS program. Two of them came in the 20^th century, prior to moving to I-AA (now FCS) in the 1980s. Historically, Funroe is not actually all that fun.

New head coach Bryant Vincent might put a real dent in that. An SBC-East draw vs. JMU and at Marshall could be tough sledding, and the Warhawks also have to go to Auburn in November. Still, a 3-1 start with wins against Troy and UAB is a pretty nice start for a new coach at a program which is historically a dead end.

This is not the walkover that many JMU fans (including me) thought it might be in the summer. Don’t be surprised if the Warhawks make their first bowl game since 2012.

A Step Up On Defense – It feels a bit weird to say this, but I am expecting UL Monroe’s defense to challenge JMU more than its recent opponents have. Yes, I am including UNC in that assessment.

I find Parker Fleming’s College Football Insiders to be a helpful tool in scouting the general neighborhood for opponents. There are 134 teams currently in FBS, and Ball State ranks 134^th in defensive EPA/play. UNC ranks in the middle of the pack, but by Mack Brown’s own admission, he did a poor job scouting and preparing the team for JMU.

Monroe ranks in the same neighborhood as UNC and will have the benefit of watching a month of tendencies on film. In two games against other G5 programs like Troy and UAB, it has allowed 15 total points. I think JMU’s offense is clearly better than Troy and UAB, but probably not eight full touchdowns better.

Because of the scheme, personnel, and game circumstances, I think Monroe’s defense will be JMU’s toughest offensive challenge to date.

An Opportunistic Offense – The Monroe offense is… well, let’s call it a work in progress. Effective quarterback play is a big problem.

In terms of total yardage, Monroe had barely 100 yards against Texas and was outgained by Troy in a close win. The Warhawks beat UAB last month, 32-6, yet somehow had only 37 more yards of total offense. That’s kind of incredible.

Monroe pulls this off because it relies on a field position game driven by its defense. In a brave new world of analytics and fourth down risk, the Warhawks will drives short fields, then run Max Larson out to kick field goals.

That will create an interesting contrast with JMU, since the Dukes arguably have the better field goal kicker in Noe Ruelas but are far more aggressive in fourth down situations. The Dukes may elect to play more conservatively and take the points in a muggy road game; alternatively, Monroe may feel like it may need to be more aggressive on fourth down to keep up with JMU’s offense.

How JMU Can Win

This is a rare game where I think special teams may take center stage. Monroe’s modus operandi is winning via field position, but that’s difficult to do against a JMU team with elite punting and kicking talent.

JMU can pin Monroe’s one-dimensional offense against its own end zone, then win with short fields of its own.

I think this is also a game where composure and consistency will be incredibly important. One week ago, JMU played a magnificent offensive game, supported by a dreadful opposing defense. Two weeks ago, it played a magical game against an ACC opponent where virtually every single high-leverage play went JMU’s way.

This is a natural letdown spot where the offense will almost certainly experience some regression. Alonza Barnett has been incredible over the last two weeks; he’s also a sophomore with five career starts, and one of them was 13 months ago.

If JMU turns the ball over, or has a string of several empty possessions in a row, it’ll be important for the team to keep the faith through that eventual, inevitable hardship. I have a lot of faith in the leadership of this coaching staff.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

Urban South’s Paradise Park. I will be the first to admit the OG JMUSB boys can run circles around me in the craft beer department, especially when we get into the nichier spaces.

Caveats aside, I’m hunting for Louisiana beer this week, where I’m partial to Urban South’s Coop’d Up Farmhouse Ale. But if that proves hard to find, Paradise Park is more widely available and is a 4.5% ABV for all seasons.

That’ll be handy for Dukes of all locations – whether you’re on the back porch in good ol’ VA or sweating through a Louisiana tailgate that might still touch 90 during the day.

Official JMUSB Prediction

JMU 26, UL Monroe 13

It might be an unpopular opinion right now, but I don’t think JMU will score 60+ points in every remaining game this season.

Going on the road to play an unfamiliar conference opponent, several hundred miles away and in a different time zone, is traditionally a difficult thing to do. I watched Bryant Vincent’s media availability this week, and he made several overtures to pack the stands. The coaching staff understands the program-building opportunity that is in front of them this week with JMU in town. I expect the Dukes will get their best punch.

A night game in Louisiana is probably going to deliver frustrating moments for JMU fans. I do think this game will be competitive. Ultimately, I think the potential for big plays on offense is a major separator between these two teams. Barring a 2018-esque avalanche of turnovers, JMU should escape its first conference trip to Louisiana with a win.

College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Manically Tracking The Many Public Enemies of Harrisonburg In Week 6

Syracuse at UNLV (Friday, FS1, 9 p.m. ET) – UNLV is currently ranked and undefeated, so they’re certainly relevant to the CFP discussion. However, sportsbooks aren’t taking them too seriously as a playoff threat, for whatever that’s worth.

Regardless, a third game against a P4 opponent is something we should carefully watch, as I don’t think the Orange are getting a ton of respect here. They’re clearly capable of winning this game.

Navy at Air Force (Saturday, CBS, 12 p.m. ET) – If you haven’t watched Navy yet, give them a screen on an open weekend where you’re not tied down. They’re really good this year, with a quarterback who actually throws the ball! Like, throws it well! Blake Horvath currently leads all FBS quarterbacks in Total QBR, and Navy gets a home game against Notre Dame. The Middies should be taken very seriously as a CFP threat.

Unfortunately, Air Force is very bad this year, so I wouldn’t hold your breath on this one.

Utah State at Boise State (Saturday, FS2, 7 p.m. ET) – Boise State is the big favorite to make the CFP right now, at least according to odds markets. I’m skeptical they’re going to get through a pretty good Mountain West without at least one conference loss, but I don’t think dreadful Utah State will be the one to deliver the potential knockout punch.

This is another one where you can safely assume Boise will live to fight another day.

Florida International at Liberty (Tuesday, CBS Sports Net, 7 p.m.) – Because our neighbors to the south play in a Mickey Mouse conference desperate for fresh meat and TV exposure, they’ll play 100% of their October contests on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Technically, this is a Week 7 game, but since it’s also only 96 hours away, let’s include it here anyway.

Liberty fans love to defend their Charmin-soft strength of schedule, but even they seemed to know the potential damage of losing the App State roadie from their 2024 lineup of opponents. I remain skeptical the all-important poll voters will put Liberty ahead of other qualifying G5 teams in the polls without total and absolute carnage.

That’s especially true this year – not just because of the lingering effects of last year’s Fiesta Bowl blowout, but also because this Liberty team just hasn’t been dominant like last year. The Flames have started game slowly and lethargically, even against bad teams. Given the game script against Mike Houston’s boys a couple weeks ago, it seems pretty unlikely that Liberty would have come back at all if ECU’s future NFL corner hadn’t torn his ACL a couple days earlier in practice.

So that’s what I’m looking for on Tuesday, moreso than the result. FIU lost to Monmouth a couple weeks ago, so this is yet another instance where a JMU-friendly upset looks pretty unlikely. Still, with Liberty sitting idle for about 17 days, and a tendency for sluggishness, the first half of this game could be pretty interesting.