JMU at Georgia Southern: Official 2024 JMUSB Game #7 Preview

The Basics

Matchup: JMU (5-1, 1-1 Sun Belt) at Georgia Southern (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt)

Kickoff: 4 p.m. EDT, Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, GA

Weather: 75 and Partly Sunny. Reasonably comfortable – It’s October, but it’s also Georgia.

Broadcast: ESPN+

Day Job Numbers: JMU -10, ML -350; O/U 58.5

Just like the Monroe game, the Dukes are a popular betting target on the heels of a well-watched blowout win. And just like the Monroe game, this market seems a bit priced out. Laying double digits with JMU in a road conference game is classic square betting behavior. If you’re swallowing the points here, there’s a decent chance you’re going to get blown up.

How We Got Here

After a humbling loss at UL Monroe, the Dukes quickly put the first defeat of the season in the rearview mirror and bludgeoned Coastal Carolina for a third straight year in front of a raucous crowd on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football.

James Madison delivered yet another excellent show on national television and got the bad taste out of its mouth all in one go. Not bad for a short week!

Three Things to Know About Georgia Southern

Game of the Year? –  Todd texted me early Thursday morning: “The size of this game kind of snuck up on me. Massive.”

Todd is absolutely correct – not just about the significance of this game, but about how its importance is kind of hiding in plain side.

Georgia Southern is the lone undefeated team remaining in SBC-East play, and an Eagles win on Saturday would give them strong command of the standings. They would have a head-to-head win over both Marshall and JMU. The Dukes would be a two-loss team. App State, the preseason favorite in the East, is 0-3 and still working through bigger issues beyond football.

On the other hand, a JMU win would bring everyone in the East down to its post-Monroe level. It would officially put the Dukes back in the driver’s seat for the Sun Belt title game, with key games against Marshall and at Old Dominion still to come in November.

It’s not hyperbole to say that the winner of this weekend’s game in Statesboro is probably going to win the East. The stakes are large, indeed.

More Opponent Quarterback Drama – If you didn’t catch Georgia Southern’s massive comeback win against Marshall last weekend, it was a doozy. The Eagles trailed by 20 in the final 10 minutes of the game when starting quarterback JC French suffered a head injury that forced him out of the game.

Enter Dexter Williams II, who promptly led a 21-point comeback that stunned the Thundering Herd and kept Georgia Southern alone in first place. In less than one quarter of action, Williams went 10-for-14 passing for 135 yards. He finished with a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown, and an excellent QBR of 93.1.

Reports out of Statesboro are that French is cleared to play this weekend and will be restored to his starting position. But you can bet that JMU is watching tape on both guys, just in case. Don’t be surprised if Williams – a former Indiana quarterback, mind you – makes an appearance.

Passing Game Success – Clay Helton is known for a reasonably effective version of the Air Raid offense, which he (ironically) brought to Georgia Southern in 2022.

Georgia Southern has consistently had one of the better passing offenses in the Sun Belt ever since, checking in at fourth in the conference in passing yards per game this year. The wide receiver pool is deep, and there are a lot of guys involved.

Derwin Burgess is the top guy statistically with 329 yards and two touchdowns this season, averaging about 13 yards per catch. JMU fans might remember him from 2022, since he had seven catches for 84 yards and a score in the last Statesboro game.

But it’s far from a one-man show. Seven different guys have at least 10 catches this year, including a tight end and multiple running backs. Five of them have scored at least once. Like a lot of air raids, Southern has a lot of pieces that can be effective in the flow of the offense, and JMU’s defense can’t succeed by simply taking one of two of them away. This weekend will be a major test for the young JMU defense.

So, yeah, Georgia Southern’s passing game is quite good, and it’s the primary reason it’s in a strong position in the Sun Belt entering Week 8.

Yet for all the good the passing game brings, there’s a whole lot of bad on several other parts of the team. The offensive line is pretty average in pass protection, which isn’t quite what you want from a unit that passes this much. On defense, Georgia Southern is susceptible to getting absolutely dominated on the ground, opening up a very basic formula for complementary football to gash the Eagles on defense while keeping their offense off the field. Speaking of which…

How JMU Can Win

Run the damn ball. Georgia Southern is allowing opponents 5.73 yards per rush. According to my very fancy and expensive football calculator, that is bad.

Southern can slice up the JMU defense with its passing attack, and it will surely have quick passes and other countermeasures available for potential JMU pressure packages. But all of that is ameliorated if JMU dominates time of possession and runs the ball down Southern’s throat.

When Georgia Southern does possess the ball, the bend-don’t-break philosophy is going to be important. The typical 7-points-or-less approach is probably not in the cards this weekend, as Georgia Southern’s offense is just too capable. But when the field shortens up, it’ll be important to force the Eagles into field goals instead of touchdowns. The winning team will likely be the one that scores seven, not three.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

SweetWater’s Tropical High Hazy IPA. A return trip to Statesboro seems like a good time to make a break for your SweetWater of preference. No shame from this guy if you want to just keep it simple and grab a six-pack of 420.

Personally, I’ll be up in the northeast this weekend for yet another wedding in the middle of football season, so it seems like a good opportunity to break out SweetWater’s New England IPA from a local Costco or Total Wine. It’s a strong choice that’s a bit overshadowed by their more popular pale ales.

Official JMUSB Prediction

JMU 32, Georgia Southern 24.

In my opinion, this is the biggest defensive test remaining in the regular season. The Air Raid will stretch JMU’s defensive principles in ways that most other Sun Belt teams will not. If JMU has health concerns along the offensive line, it may struggle early to attack the Eagles where they are most susceptible.

In the end, I think JMU’s talent in specific areas of the field will be the difference in this game. Georgia Southern will score points on offense, and JMU will be locked in another competitive road game. But Southern’s inability to stop the run, and Madison’s individual talent in the defensive backfield, will ultimately be key factors in the outcome of this game.