JMU at App State: Official JMUSB Game Preview #11
The Basics
Matchup: JMU at App State
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET, Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC
Weather: Low 40s and Partly Sunny
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -7 , ML -275; O/U 59.5
App State has been up and down this year, and the defense has frequently been lousy. That said, I can’t recommend laying a full touchdown on the road in the hottest and most impactful rivalry game in the Sun Belt East.
How We Got Here
Week 12 was when JMU found itself back in the mix at the top of the Sun Belt.
Count me among those who have called for a more tempered and grounded approach to what is possible in this first season of the Bob Chesney era. At the risk of repeating myself, there is nothing more normal in college football than dropping a couple of sloppy road games after turning over several dozen players and the entire coaching staff.
Yet this JMU team has persevered through those growing pains, and through a little luck, found itself back in position to potentially make its first Sun Belt title game. Last week’s win at Old Dominion, coupled with Georgia Southern’s loss to Troy, leaves the Dukes in a much more realistic position to potentially win the division.
More on this later, but the stakes of this week are very clear. Once again, App State looms as the biggest game of the season.
Three Things to Know About App State
It’s Thriller Time – The history of JMU vs. App State is drama, drama, drama.
Last year, App State won a walkoff in overtime, 26-23, after College GameDay was live from the Quad.
The previous year, App State went up 28-3 but blew a massive lead, Falcons-style, as JMU roared back in the second half to win, 32-28.
Back in FCS-land, App State knocked JMU from the 2007 playoffs, 28-27. The following year, JMU avenged the loss at Bridgeforth with an epic come-from-behind win, 35-32. They won’t even let you into the JMU Oldhead club if you haven’t memorized the highlights from that game.
The point here? When App State and JMU play, expect a barnburner. This year’s 4-5 record means nothing to us.
Judging Appy – There’s been a great deal of brainpower this year devoted to solving whether or not the Mountaineers are good. Since the Liberty game was cancelled in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, App State is 2-3 with home wins over Georgia State and ODU and road losses to Marshall, Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina.
Frankly, there’s a lot of teams in this conference that would beat last-place Georgia State at home and lose to first-place Louisiana and first-place Marshall at their respective stadiums. That doesn’t actually tell us much about where App State lives in the Sun Belt pantheon of greatness. Your mileage may vary.
Frankly, the only thing we can be really sure about is…
The Defense Stinks – Yeah. There’s no sugar-coating it. This is not a vintage App State team, and the main culprit is the defense.
App State ranks sub-100 in Team EPA allowed per play, and the defense is allowing scores on about 94% of red zone trips, which is one of the ten worst marks in FBS.
To my eye, they’re really missing the anchor that Tyrek Funderburk gave them in the defensive backfield last year, and Nate Johnson hasn’t been quite as good at linebacker, among other issues.
While it’s fair to wonder how much the hurricane has complicated this season, allowing 66 points to Clemson and 48 points to South Alabama back in September were probably early warning signs that App State was going to struggle to get off the field this year.
How JMU Can Win
Execute on offense, build an early lead, and let the JMU defense do what it does.
App State has allowed an average of 34 points per game since Sun Belt play started. JMU can take advantage of bad fits and sloppy assignment play to jump in front and force the Mountaineers to play another game from behind.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Officially, I’m recommending Long Leaf IPA this week for a return trip to the high country. For anyone who’s making the trip down to Boone, stop by Appalachian Mountain Brewery to get this excellent 7% American IPA that aims to equal the piney goodness of the local flora.
In the spirit of supporting the Carolinas, I also want to mention a collaboration between AMB and several other North Carolina breweries – Hello From the Holler. It’s a Pale Ale brewed specifically for hurricane relief, with 100% of proceeds going to Helene recovery.
If you’re traveling for the game, grab one and let us know how it is.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 39, App State 30. Alonza continues to look healthy and effective, and the offense cashes in on multiple drives against a suspect defense.
Joey Aguilar and this offense are going to bring it for 60 minutes, and I don’t expect anything short of a close, competitive game. But in the end, I liked a lot of what I saw in Norfolk last week, and I think that continues this weekend in Boone.
Sportsbook Say What?
I was explaining to my wife this week that JMU is in a great position in the Sun Belt East, relative to a month ago. She asked what we still needed to win the conference.
“Well,” I said, “We need to win a big rivalry game on the road at App State this weekend.”
She nodded.
“Then, we need to come home and beat Marshall, who’s currently in first place in the division.”
She looked confused. “That actually sounds pretty hard, though.”
I continued.
“If we do both of those things, and Georgia Southern loses this weekend or next weekend, then we’ll get to play in the championship game – probably against Louisiana, and likely on the road.”
“Wait,” she said. “We have to do all that, just to get the chance to play a third game? That we still have to win? And it’s a road game?”
When you line it up like that, there’s clearly still a lot that can go wrong between now and the first weekend of December. Yet we all felt the seismic nature of Troy’s season-changing win over Georgia Southern last week; from an objective point of view, JMU is clearly in a better position than it was just a few days ago.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the college football futures market, where JMU is suddenly the de facto favorite to win the East and challenge Louisiana for the title.
Those odds are even more interesting when you consider that Louisiana is now likely without starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge for the remainder of the pre-bowl season.
The odds movement is a huge clue that JMU is back to being live to win this thing. Coastal Carolina is an outright favorite to beat Georgia Southern this weekend, and there’s very clearly something wrong in Statesboro right now.
Still, let’s not put the cart before the horse. None of this matters without a win in Boone.
So let’s get down there and find a win, yeah?
Missing the write-up.
Go Dukes! Best Marshall