Dec 17 / Chase

Boca Raton Bowl Preview: JMU vs. Western Kentucky

Welcome to bowl season! The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, and at least one of the teams will look pretty familiar. An in-state Indiana affair will pit the former core of JMU football against No. 7 Notre Dame.

As far as brands go, it’s a clash of old-school classic vs. new-age bravado. Some of you are old enough to remember Catholics vs. Convicts; welcome to Catholics vs. Cigs. Notre Dame is a 7.5-point favorite, but I kind of like Indiana to win the game. It feels like Indiana’s defense is well-positioned to stop what the Irish want to do on offense.

Two days before the CFP, the current iteration of James Madison football will play an appetizer game with far lower stakes. As Rob and Todd outlined in their pod preview this week, the expansion of the playoff has further underlined the exhibition status of lower bowl games.

That said… there’s still value in this game! Bowl season offers a chance to get meaningful bonus practices with a young team with a lot of growth ahead of it. These are real reps for remaining players against a quality opponent.

I’m always a little skeptical about overreading the value of a bowl win, but it probably wouldn’t hurt to score a win over a team that just played in the Conference USA championship game. So let’s go bowling, eh?

The Basics

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET, FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, FL

Weather: High 70s and Cloudy

Broadcast: ESPN

Day Job Numbers: JMU -7, ML -275; O/U 51.5

Western Kentucky has some real challenges on the defensive side of the ball, as I’ll talk about later on. But I’m still a little surprised to see JMU giving this much away to WKU, considering the quarterback matchup.

The best bet might be the over – I think both teams will have some success on offense.

JMU can build on a positive transitional season with a win against C-USA runner-up Western Kentucky.

How We Got Here

JMU’s 8-4 season carries a lot of room for interpretation. Apologists would say that a clear winning record after such a dramatic offseason marred by catastrophic turnover is a win no matter what. (I tend to be in this camp.)

Critics would point to several circumstances that really water down the impact of that eight-win mark. For instance: JMU’s three FBS opponents from the month of September all eventually fired their coaches. In conference play, the Dukes finished with a middling 4-4 Sun Belt record – the first non-winning conference record since 2013. That season ended with Mickey Matthews’ dismissal.

Regardless of where you might fall on the season evaluation, I think we’d all agree that a 9-4 record with a bowl win over Western Kentucky would be a refreshing pallet cleanser before we all move on to conference play for hoops.

As a bonus, a win against WKU would be the first win of the season against a team that finished with a winning record. For critics, that result could go a long way toward reframing this season as more than a litany of easy wins against bad opponents.  

So, Like, Who’s Actually Playing In This Game for JMU?

Bowl season is typically code for opt-outs and transfer portal announcements, but JMU is actually pretty clean on this front. The Dukes are losing starting left tackle Jesse Ramil to Mississippi State. Redshirt freshman Darold DeNgohe, who rotated in as very effective interior DL, is headed to the Big Ten.

Both players flash a lot of potential at their respective positions, which is why they’re transferring up to power conferences.

The bigger impact here is team health. Several players were sidelined down the stretch run for this team, and – as you’ve likely heard – starting quarterback Alonza Barnett was injured at the very end of the Marshall game. He won’t play on Wednesday.

That means the JMU offense will be manned by junior quarterback Billy Atkins, who last saw real action in the infamous 2022 Marshall game. After Todd Centeio suffered a freak injury at the very end of the week, Atkins was pressed into service with no real experience and virtually no practice with the ones during the week. The end result was, understandably, a memorably disastrous offensive performance.

But let’s be fair to Atkins here – that was a situation where virtually no one would succeed, and he’s had the chance to sit and learn for two and a half full seasons since that game. I’m excited for him to get this new opportunity to prove himself.

Three Things to Know About Western Kentucky

Holy Transfer Portal, Batman! If you think JMU has personnel issues for Wednesday’s games, might I invite you into the crossroads outside of Bowling Green, where literal dozens of WKU players have put their name forward into the transfer portal.

Last I saw, there are somewhere around 25 players on the 2024 roster who may not be available for this game. That includes the entire starting defensive line and starting linebacker Darius Thomas. But fans shouldn’t assume that WKU won’t have those players available just because they’re in the portal. In fact, Chesney even told the media that he’s entirely ignoring WKU’s transfer portal status.

“[We should] assume that everyone is playing. To assume anything less would be ridiculous.”

Advantage Under Center – Starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp is one of the many WKU names in the portal, but he has made clear that he’s going to be playing in the bowl game. He’s likely just put his name in the portal to see what kind of offers are out there for a competent sophomore that scored 30 total touchdowns this year. It’s pretty smart on his part.

The fact that Veltkamp is playing gives WKU a pretty clear experience advantage at the quarterback position. In fact, Western Kentucky’s entire starting offense from Week 14 may be available and playing in this game, which means this game will likely orbit around an explosive WKU offense against a stingy JMU defense.

Gorging on the Ground Game – As many JMU voices have already homed in on in recent days, Western Kentucky’s run defense has a pretty pathetic reputation. The Hilltoppers allow 225 rushing yards per game, which is one of the 10 worst marks in FBS.

In Jacksonville State’s dominating C-USA championship performance, the Gamecocks gashed WKU for 386 yards on the ground, good for about seven yards per carry.

Amusingly, this will be the fourth opponent JMU has faced this year that has a bottom-10 rush defense, alongside Georgia State, Charlotte, and Southern Miss. The Dukes averaged 180 rush yards against those opponents, which is actually a bit underwhelming when you consider the per-game aggregate for those defenses is closer to 220.

How JMU Can Win

Commit to running the ball and controlling the clock.

If WKU’s offense really does show up whole, the Hilltoppers are probably going to score some points. JMU can limit the damage and keep its defense in good position by stringing together domineering drives that suck up time and finish in the end zone.

Official JMUSB Prediction

JMU 32, WKU 27. Even with its defensive issues, I absolutely think Western Kentucky could steal this game because of its advantage in the passing game. But conventional wisdom says that a strong ground game is a quarterback’s best friend, and I think Atkins will be handing off a lot in this game.

I’ll take a healthy dose of George Pettaway and Jobi Malary to pace the game and keep the ball out of Veltkamp’s hands just enough for a win.

Boca Helping Hands

Whether you’re heading to Boca Raton or watching from home, please consider a donation to Boca Helping Hands. The fundraiser, which was organized by Rob, is in line with JMUSB’s longstanding tradition of generosity in the communities where JMU plays key away games.

Whether you can give $1 or $100, there is no amount of charity that is too small or insignificant. Let’s continue to spread the spirit of giving that makes the James Madison community so unique!

One Comment

leave a comment
  1. CJ / Dec 17 2024

    IU’s nab of Curt Cignetti has to be the best college FB grab in the past decade (if not longer), especially when you consider price and how dramatically he turned the program around. If had Cignetti and that returning roster this season we’d be a lock on the Sun Belt title and perhaps in the playoffs.

    That being said, I think Chesney is about the best we could do at this point. Overall, 8-4 is pretty damn good for a first year FBS coach with a team that lost a huge chunk of talent. And a win over UNC is a huge deal any season if you ask me. I’d say the biggest deficiency I notice with Chesney is his lack of ability to make adjustments and counter opponents’ schemes. I credit that historic comeback win against App St in 2022 largely to Cignetti’s ability to recognize and adjust to schemes…that was a flash of coaching genius. But Chesney seems to have potential and talent of his own so I’m optimistic we’re in good shape for next year.

    Sorry to end on a negative note but if Atkins is our starter I’m afraid its game over. Atkins is a FCS-level QB, and a mediocre one at that. Did we ever get a good reason why Dylan Morris isn’t playing, or why we saw so little of him this season?

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: