The Basics
Matchup: Old Dominion Monarchs (4-3, 3-1 Sun Belt) at #25 JMU Dukes (7-0, 4-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 58, cloudy
Broadcast: ESPNU
Boys in the Desert: JMU -20.5, O/U 49
How We Got Here
ODU is so weird. And maybe…..good? You tell me what to make of this schedule:
36-17 loss at Virginia Tech, 38-31 home win over Louisiana, 27-24 home loss to Wake Forest, 10-9 homecoming win over something called Commerce, 41-35 loss at Marshall, 17-13 win at Southern Miss, 28-21 home win over App St.
Seriously, what the hell is that? If you can find a pattern you’re smarter than we are. The losses to Tech and Wake were better than they looked. The wins over Commerce and USM were so much worse than they looked. The offensive explosion at a Marshall team that JMU struggled to score against. And now a win over another inconsistent but dangerous (or not?) App team. Like, if they win the Wake game but lose the Commerce game (when TAMU-Commerce went for two and the win in the last minute) does it change our perception? Probably not. Just a strange, strange team who probably had their biggest win last week.
The Dukes dominated Marshall defensively in a weird Thursday night field position game to run their record to 7-0. That’s even more impressive considering JMU has clearly been playing it’s best ball the last three games and seems to be getting better as the season moves along.
How ODU Can Win
Normally we’d say find their running game on offense and make JMU one-dimensional on the other side. But really maybe the answer is “keep hitting big plays.” ODU has made plenty of big plays when they’ve been at their best this year and JMU was, at least prior to the last two games, often susceptible to giving up some headscratchers. No matter who is QB1 for the Monarchs when they have the ball, they simply cannot leave themselves in obvious passing situations. Nobody has really run on JMU, but so often a combination of field position and game situation has also led teams to abandon the effort too early. ODU, which has the most sacks allowed by any team in the country vs. the Dukes defense is a recipe for disaster (and covering a big number :)). But if ODU can find just enough in the running game (not even massive plays necessarily) to stay ahead of the chains and keep the DLine from simply teeing off on their statutesque QB’s, they might be able to pull JMU out of position with some of their creativity on offense (think misdirection, shovel passes, play-action, and even single-wing concepts at times).
Similarly, on defense ODU needs to focus on stopping the run and force JMU to be one-dimensional. The one aspect of the 2023 vintage for JMU that hasn’t fully joined the “complete team” concept that has grown through seven games has surprisingly been the Dukes rushing attack. Whether teams are simply keying on that or they’ve caught up scheme-wise to JMU’s quick-hitting running game, it’s been a mild disappointment given the talent and experience on the OLine and in the RB room. But JMU has never truly been forced to abandon the run – particularly given its fast starts and early leads – and that’s left room for explosiveness in the passing game. The Monarchs have to force JMU to throw – something they could be capable of with the SBC’s leading tackler Jason Henderson at LB – and hope they can make opportunistic plays.
How JMU Can Win
Do the job. That’s it. But this is Homecoming. It’s JMU Halloween. The Dukes are ranked again. The game’s on national tv again. Football commentators and attention-seeking politicians alike are using JMU to take shots at the easy target that is the NCAA. There’s concern about the postseason, next season, NIL, and playoff access. But those are all jobs for people who don’t wear helmets to worry about this week. It’s the jobs of student orgs and the Alumni Association to worry about Homecoming. Students’ (and the HPD) have the job of worrying about Halloween. The Media can worry about rankings. SID’s and the production team can worry about tv. Adminstrators can deal with the NCAA. And the Duke Club and Montpelier Collective can worry about NIL and next season.
The ONLY JOB for Homecoming for the fellas with JMU on the helmet is to WIN the football game. Last year the hype and distractions and fans showing their backsides yelling about postseason led directly to a three-game losing streak that started with a disappointing upset loss to Georgia Southern. This year’s team just needs to do it’s job. On paper this matchup heavily favors the Dukes in almost every meaningful way. The pass rush could be legendary (think playoffs against Soft Houston ’16 or SELA ’21) against the sieve that is ODU’s line. After losing star wideout Ali Jennings to VT’s NIL this year, the Monarchs don’t have a receiver with even 350 yards to date and it’s unclear if they can challenge JMU’s one “developing” area on defense. But for Dukes fans old enough to know better, the only other time ODU came to Bridgeforth, Taylor Heinicke lit JMU up in the second half and handed us one of the more painful losses of the past 25 years. If the team simply maintains its focus on the game and saves worries about all the other stuff for afterwards, there’s no reason to think the Dukes can’t dominate the way they did last year in Norfolk.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Founder’s All Day IPA. The obvious choice for a tailgate day this lengthy. It’s not cold enough yet for stouts and, despite our preferences, we aren’t choosing a Commonwealth Brewing offering against a 757 team. So make the easy, safe choice and go with the best combo of taste and low ABV found anywhere.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 38, ODU 17 – We’re nervous about the classic “trap game” here and the Monarchs “may” be making progress (is App good?), but the matchup seems too favorable to pick much different from last year’s game.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU Dukes (6-0, 3-0 Sun Belt) at Marshall Thundering Herd (4-2, 1-1 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT, Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, West Virginia
Weather: Low 50’s, cloudy
Broadcast: ESPN (the main one!)
Boys in the Desert: JMU -3, O/U 52
How We Got Here
Marshall was humbled this past Saturday night in Atlanta by an underrated Georgia St. team 41-24. Looking at the stats, you wouldn’t have guessed the Herd lost by 17. And looking at Marshall’s season, it’s a mystery as well. They survived an FCS scare against Albany in Week One. Then whipped ECU in Greenville in Week 2 in a game that looked good at the time but looks bad now (ECU is really bad). Then they hosted and beat VT in a game that seemed underwhelming but looks better now (VT has improved). They hung on against another Jekyll-and-Hyde team in ODU in Week 4 to get to 4-0 and all things seemed rosy. A 48-41 home losst to NC State still seemed respectable (though it’s unclear if NC State’s offense exists outside of this game) but last week’s debacle at Turner Field now has them 4-2 and has a “passionate” fan base yelling at clouds and unsure how to feel headed into what looked a couple weeks ago like a marquee Sun Belt matchup.
JMU played it’s most complete game of the season. Coming off the bye, the Dukes put a good old-fashioned ass-whoopin’ on Georgia Southern in the ‘burg last week. JMU has undoubtedly played it’s best two games the last two times out, but we’re hesitant to say they’re fully “trending up” until we watch on Thursday.
How Marshall Can Win
Get JMU out of position and play more disciplined football than they have all year. Marshall has athletes all over the place capable of giving the Dukes fits, none more so than all-world RB Rasheen Ali. After missing most of last year, he’s back to his usual jaw-dropping ways and is such a focal point that defenses have broken down keying on him and let others loose at times this year. Ali has 4 100-yard games including a whopping 174-yard effort against the Hokies. Even the “big” defenses like NC State that the Herd have played have been susceptible to big plays when over-keying on Ali though and QB Cam Fancher (a very good athlete himself) has found ways to make big plays when teams get out of position. They’ll need to do the same against a young JMU secondary this week.
Defensively though there’s just no way to sugar-coat the fact the Herd have been “inconsistent,” some might even say downright undisciplined and at times you wonder if they’ve been coached at all. Harsh? Probably. But they’ve got to be better against this JMU team. FBS opponents have scored 31, 24, 41, 48, and 41 points against them so far. And those first two were absolutely hideous offensive teams in ECU and VT. The last three games, ODU, NC State (neither of whom would say offense is their calling card), and Georgia State have undressed the Herd with big plays and missed assignments. Again, on film play-to-play it doesn’t look Marshall is overmatched, but when they mess up, they go big. They simply have to play more consistently against a Dukes offense that’s finding it’s stride.
How JMU Can Win
Stay on script, run the ball, and stay disciplined on D. As mentioned above, the Herd have the athletes and playmakers to go toe-to-toe with anyone and JMU needs to avoid letting this turn into a herky-jerky shootout. Offensively, the Dukes need to build on last week’s promising performance in the run game as Marshall has been pushed around a bit to the tune of nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. If JMU can do that, they’ll control the clock and limit the chances for things to go haywire. And they’ll set up play-action where the Herd’s biggest weakness – falling asleep and being undisciplined – will show up and give up home runs.
On the other side, the Dukes need to do what they do and play sound. Marshall runs a ton of traditional RPO/misdirection stuff so individual defenders have to stay home and do their job both on the edge and in the backend. With a player like Ali drawing so much attention, it’s easy to be fooled and the Herd have hit big plays against everyone they’ve played when defenders get suckered. JMU needs to keep up the massive progress we’ve seen the last couple games in just doing their job. If they can do that, eventually Jamree, Carp, and the boys will get in the backfield and wreck shit.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
The Peddlar’s Silt Sucker IPA – if you’re making the trip to the Jewel City like we are you don’t want to miss The Peddlar – some of the best beers in the Mountain State just down the road from the Stadium in the commercial heart of Huntington. We’re usually suspicious of “hazy” and “fruity” from the real small-distribution spots cause sometimes that’s covering up the junk that leads to a headache but that’s not the case with these fellas. Wonder if the Huntington bars stay open later than usual for a weeknight when there’s a game in town?
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 31, Marshall 20 – Cool. Dark. Perfect.
The Basics
Matchup: Georgia Southern Eagles (4-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ JMU Dukes (5-0, 2-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: Noon EDT. Saturday, October 14, 2023, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 65, chance of showers all day though looks better for the second half. It’s gonna be fine and it’s always sunny in D-Lot so get your butts out there and go hard.
Broadcast: ESPN2
Boys in the Desert: JMU -6, O/U 59.5 (opened at Dukes by 3.5)
How We Got Here
Both teams are coming off their bye weeks and should be fresh after outstanding starts to the season. The Eagles only loss was at Wisconsin in a game where they arguable played better than the 35-14 final indicates. Their lone SBC game was two weeks ago with a 38-28 win at home over Coastal.
How Georgia Southern Can Win
Carbon copy of last year’s game in Statesboro. A big play or turnover or three from defense and specials and just throw and throw and throw all over JMU’s to-date questionable back end. Essentially just outscore the Dukes in a shootout. No doubt that JMU’s commitment to stopping the run (a commitment that works btw) has also led to lots of doom and gloom from Dukes fans about the secondary. And no team is better prepared to take advantage of that from a matchup standpoint than this Southern team that averages 475 yards of offense by air-raiding it out with a solid QB and a bevy of receiving targets.
Defensively however, the Eagles will likely need to outperform the 140 yards/game they’ve been giving up on the ground if they want to maximize their offense’s opportunities. Especially on a potentially soggy day in the Valley they can’t just have to stop JMU from grinding drives and killing clock (not something the Dukes have done a lot of this year yet but still worth noting).
How JMU Can Win
Finish them. Get home to Brin. Be more consistent on offense.
First things first. Last year JMU jumped all over the Eagles early and had multiple chances to put them away before mistakes by the Dukes allowed the game to turn and then Georgia Southern got rolling offensively in the second half. If that sounds familiar, that’s because that’s exactly what JMU did against Utah St., Virginia, and to a lesser extent South Alabama, before the bye. If the Dukes start fast as they often have this year, they need to be ruthless in finishing the Eagles off.
Defensively we know the drill at this point. Eagles QB Davis Brin looks a whole lot like last year’s QB Kyle Van Trease. Given time he’ll kill you with his accuracy, his weapons, and the play design Georgia Southern is so clever about. But pressure changed everything we they went to Wisconsin, he got drilled a bunch, and ultimately threw a whole slew of picks. Kromah, Kamara, Carpenter, Green, and Tucker after a week of rest have to be looking forward to this one!
On offense JMU just needs to show more consistency. Yes it could be a shootout and they might need to be great. But even if it’s not quite as crazy as last year, the Dukes can’t afford a three- or four-possession stretch of 3 and outs. JMU has shown it can be explosive the last couple games; now the Dukes need to show they won’t disappear for an entire quarter or two and not abandon their running game.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Hardywood Great Return IPA – pains us to credit the folks with a themed beer for another state school, but this one just tastes good. And the fish motif seems apropos for a swimmingly good tailgate.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 37, Georgia Southern 17 – Lock. The. Damned. Gates!
The Basics
Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt) JMU Dukes (4-0, 1-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: Noon EDT. Saturday, September 30, 2023, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 65, morning showers then cloudy
Broadcast: ESPNU
Boys in the Desert: JMU -3, O/U 51.5
How We Got Here
South Alabama has had a roller-coaster start to the season. Got blown out by Tulane in the most anticipated G5 matchup of Week 1. Turned around a couple weeks later and looked dominant in a beatdown of Oklahoma St. in Stillwater. Then went home last week, fell asleep, and got upset by Central Michigan. In other words, hard to know what to make of this edition of the Jags just yet.
Dukes also fell asleep but prevented South Al’s full capitualtion out at Utah St. last week to escape this three-game road trip to start the season relatively unscathed.
How South Al Can Win
Feed their star WR Caullin Lacy over and over and over. And do enough in the run game with La’Damian Webb to keep the Dukes honest while feeding Lacy all those times. The Dukes haven’t shown the ability to even cope with a true star WR1 yet this season, particularly when they’re moved around and hunting matchups with DB’s not named Logan or Coles. This week is no different and as much as Head Coach Kane Womack loves to be all old-school “establish the run” guy, this week he probably needs to chuck it to Lacy and challenge the Dukes to stop it.
How JMU Can Win
Keep developing the offense’s explosiveness but not turn the ball over. Last week we saw an offense starting to click. We all worried about whether the offense could approach what we’ve seen in recent years early on this season. But after seeing 500 plus yards and huge plays all over last week, maybe we all forgot a bit that McCloud was starting for the first time in a couple years and essentially the entire receiving core was brand new. With a few game under their belt together, we saw all the potential for this group last week even though it was overshadowed in the moment by the turnovers. What could this offense do now with say, one turnover instead of four?!
Defensively, just cover Lacy and otherwise keep doing what you do up front.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Solace Thunder Buddy. Another IPA in a purple can? Why yes thank you.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 27, South Alabama 23 – Should be a dandy!
The Basics
Matchup: JMU Dukes (3-0, 1-0 Sun Belt) at Utah St. Aggies (1-2, 0-1 Pac12 ;))
Kickoff: 8 p.m. EDT. Saturday, September 23, 2023, Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah
Weather: 55 and dropping. Logan is in northern Utah, nearly to Wyoming and Idaho, and late September is deep fall. 6 p.m. local kickoff looks like perfect football weather.
Broadcast: Mountain West Network (free stream from what we can tell availalbe directly through the link on JMU’s schedule page; also there’s an app on Roku and AppleTV (which is unhelpful for LG Tv’s but you should be able to cast it from your iPhone)
Boys in the Desert: JMU -6.5, O/U 52.5
How We Got Here
The Dukes survived an absolute battle down in the deep south, hanging on for an important 16-14 dub at Troy last week. The Dukes have managed to get out of the first two legs of this rare and difficult three-game road trip.
The Aggies have had an odd schedule that is very hard to take much away from, destroying a bad FCS team – their neighbors just up the road Idaho St. – in Week 2, bookended by losses to two stronger teams. USU hung tough with Iowa in week 1 but sort of self-destructed with FIVE personal fouls and a few turnovers in an otherwise respectable 24-14 loss. Last week they got run out of Colorado Springs on a rail by an underrated Air Force squad who buried them 32-7 by halftime even if the final score put some lipstick on that pig.
How Utah St. Can Win
Ride the passing-game hope generated by true freshman QB (and alleged Aggie savior) McCae Hillstead to outscore a potentially tired Dukes team on a long trip at altitude. Like Virginia’s Colandrea, Hillstead is a true freshman that has generated all kinds of hype after entering last week’s game at Air Force and throwing three touchdowns, albeit in a mostly meaningless second half after trailing huge early. Unlike Colandrea, who was relatively unheralded, Hillstead has been the great hope for hardcore Aggie fans since the day he commmitted after becoming something of a Utah high school legend at Skyridge HS. (Speaking of Utah high school ball, wonder if the in-house streaming broadcast will talk as much about prep ball as the Weber St. team did a couple years ago – “Copper Canyon!” iykyk) But much of the passing game flows through Senior WR Terrell Vaughan, and JMU has to find a way to slow him down after struggling to contain top targets the last two weeks.
Otherwise it’s hard to know much about what Utah St. really wants to do offensively as they’ve been forced to throw in two games when trailing big and racked up a gazillion rushing yards against their survivalist friends from Pocatello. Good luck to them if they want to run on the Dukes this week though.
Defensively, they need to avoid allowing JMU a fast start and hope the Dukes stay conservative like they did last week.
How JMU Can Win
Focus. Utah St. is good, not great. Playing a Mountain West school is both fun and unusual. But with two emotional wins in the rearview and a huge matchup finally back at Bridgeforth next week against South Alabama, the number one item on JMU’s board this week has to be focusing on what’s required to win this game in the moment. A faster start offensively would go a long way to making that possible. JMU doesn’t need to go crazy or anything, but if the Dukes can distance themselves by two scores at any point, thus allowing them to run the ball on offense and turn the monstrous DLine loose on the freshman…..that’s likely a tasty recipe. Focus also extends to taking care of the football and avoiding hideous penalties, both of which JMU did a solid job of last week at Troy.
Defensively, JMU needs to keep steadily improving. Last week was better than UVA. On the surface Troy still racked up passing yards. But looking closer it’s hard not to notice a considerable amount of those yards were on perfectly timed back-shoulder throws and the like between a veteran QB and a couple solid receivers. Put simply, if JMU is going to be the best rushing defense in the country, that particular brand of passing play is going to be availalbe to those teams capable of hitting it. But that ain’t most teams and it remains to be seen whether another new young QB can do it this week.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Avery Brewing’s The Reverend Belgian Quad – As with most middle-aged (it’s eerie how quickly I’m wondering about when I won’t even be able use that descriptor anymoe!) beer geeks, we’ve finally found our way to all things Belgium. And while we appreciate the efforts of American brewers to replicate the classics, most of them aren’t even on the same figurative continent as, say, a St. Bernardus 12. But Avery, aptly located in the new capital of college football (Boulder), has one of the best versions we’ve found. And an 8 p.m. kickoff on a rainy fall evening in the Commonwealth where we hope another random streaming network holds up for all four quarters is the perfect time to break out this monster.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 30, Utah St. 20 – Offense makes progress even if this is closer than we’d prefer.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU Dukes (2-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Troy Trojans (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT. Saturday, September 16, 2023, Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
Weather: Partly Cloudy, low 80’s
Broadcast: NFL Network (pretty cool)
Boys in the Desert: Troy -2.5
How We Got Here
Dukes had a slightly disappointing showing in a 38-3 opener against FCS Bucknell before a massive post-weather-delay comeback to win an insanely emotional game over the Wahoos last weekend. Troy also was underwhelming (at least defensively) in their FCS opener where they downed Stephen F. Austin 48-30 (was 31-20 at the half before Troy pulled away). Then they played a very solid half at Top 15 Kansas St. before imploding/wearing down after the break and letting things get a bit out of hand 42-13 on the road.
How Troy Can Win
Extend whatever drought the JMU offense goes through and use that to outscore the Dukes. JMU has had extended periods where the offense has stalled a bit in both of the first two weeks even though they’ve scored 36 and 38 points so far. Troy’s defense is better than either unit JMU has seen so far. While it seems unlikely they’ll keep the Dukes in check for 60 minutes, if they can force two plus quarters of “meh” from JMU’s offense, that could set them up to score enough.
Troy has a superback in Kimani Vidal. He can grind out yards (like last week against a legit KSt. team) and he’s explosive with a national-best four carries over 40 yards thus far. The Dukes lead the country in rushing yards per play though and this matchup of strength-on-strength should be a dream to watch.
Troy also has a talented WR in Chris Lewis, capabale of hitting the highlight reel anytime the ball heads his way. But if JMU can hold Vidal to even normal-ish rushing numbers, can QB Gunnar Watson find Lewis and co. in obvious passing situations when Kromah and Green have green lights in the pass rush?
On defense, Troy cannot afford any of the second-half lapses they had in the Little Apple last week. UVA seemed well-prepped for much of what JMU likes to do, but when things got tight late, they missed opportunities to close the Dukes out. The Trojans will need to be better.
How JMU Can Win
Cash in opportunities with points. The last two weeks, JMU managed to find enough possessions to eventually get the offense rolling after slowish stints in the first half of both games. This week they’re playing a team with equal talent that likes to run the ball, control the clock, and isn’t afraid to play low-scoring junkfests. The Dukes simply cannot afford to miss chances when TD’s are availalbe. As was much discussed, JMU overthrew sure TD connections against Bucknell early and then last week a combination of drops, a timid 4th down decision, and another overthrow saw them miss the chance to really bury the Cavs before they got their own momentum late in the opening half.
Barring turnovers, JMU’s defense should keep them in this one throughout against a rush-first squad. But Troy seems unlikely to blow this on their own and the Dukes need to pay off their chances when presented.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Swover Creek Farm Brewery Jalapeno Cream Ale – It’s the first real Fall Saturday weather-wise in the Valley so far this year and the Dukes have a night game. So head out in the afternoon to gorgeous Swover Creek (it’s an Edinburg address but it’s more Mt. Jackson) for some incredible pizza (get the Mexican with the homemade Chorizo) and try something weird (non-gourd category of course). Use the JMU mug on the wall if they’ll let ya!
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 34, Troy 24 – Just a really good game between two solid and proud programs. But the JMU pass defense and tackling finally tighten up and compliment the front six, forcing a late back-breaking turnouver from the home team.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU Dukes (1-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Virginia Cavaliers (0-1, 0-0 ACC)
Kickoff: Noon EDT. Saturday, September 9, 2023, Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Weather: Isolated thunderstorms, high 85. Looking promising that storms will hold off till after the game but going to be moist and humid regardless.
Broadcast: ESPNU
Boys in the Desert: JMU -7 (damn right you read that correctly!)
How We Got Here
First, the narrow view:
The Dukes beat FCS Bucknell 38-3 despite a massive struggle offensively through nearly 3 quarters. JMU fans, including us, have said all that needs to be said about the QB issue this week, but after a promising few drives from Jordan McCloud, the hope is he’s ready for a return to the bigger stages he played on at Arizona and USF. JMU received the same single vote in the AP poll this week that it did in the preseason as they begin the toughest stretch of their season (@UVA, @Troy, @Utah St., South Alabama).
Virginia was forced to start off their season in Nashville against Tennessee for an allegedly “neutral site” game. As expected, it did not go well with the Hoos getting boatraced 49-13 but it’s hard to draw conclusions based only on an actual road game against one of the nation’s best teams.
But this game requires a much broader view of how we got here that’s significantly more important than anything on the field from Week 1:
For the Dukes, it’s been four decades of hoping for this game to take place. Funny story, but Gary Clark once returned two kicks for TD’s in a Dukes win in the early 80’s and the Hoos have ducked scheduling this new-blood from just over Afton mountain ever since. Virginia has had no problem playing (and sometimes even losing to) old-south rivals from Williamsburg or Richmond over the years, but heaven forbid they allow these new-money usurpers in purple near the veranda. That said, if you had told us ten years ago this game was taking place, we would’ve been at our absolute worst and most obnoxious headed into this game (think WVU at FedEx). But for two reasons, we’re not even considering that approach this week. First, and least important, the Dukes are favored in the game and we’ve become accustomed to winning football over the last decade while UVA has wandered the wilderness of the bottom-half of a watered down ACC all that time. Although this matchup will certainly bring out more casual fans from both teams than usual, the real ones in both purple and orange know this isn’t your old-school FBS/FCS matchup we would’ve thought not all that long ago.
But most important of all, this is Virginia’s first home game since the murders of three players last November. This weekend, the UVA community will be celebrating the lives of Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry. We encourage Dukes fans to read AD Jeff Bourne’s important message from this week. While we’ll be running our mouths with some good-natured trash-talking Friday night and Saturday morning, it certainly won’t have any venom in it like, say, NDSU in Frisco. And we’d venture to guess the trash-talking will be between friends and family members you’re attending with as much as any random strangers in different color shirts. We’ll scream ourselves hoarse during the game for sure, and probably even use a few choice words at times, and should the Dukes prevail, there’s no doubt we’ll celebrate robustly downtown well into the evening. But it will be with a heavy heart and great empathy for those same friends and family members who are a part of the Hoos community.
How Virginia Can Win
Muck It Up. With questions at QB, other important players injured or just returning from injury, and an offensive line that struggled in Week 1, a shootout with the Dukes is likely not the way to a fun afternoon for the “home” team. Starter and Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett injured his non-throwing shoulder and has been listed as day-to-day. If he plays, does he hold up and can the Cavs run their full offense if his running is limited? If not, it’ll be true freshman Tony Colandrea forced into action against a Dukes defense that showed almost nothing on film last week and seems likely to be substantially more versatile this week. A couple TE’s were nicked up last week in Tennessee as well so it’ll be interesting to see how aggressive UVA is willing to be at least as long as this game’s close.
Defensively, UVA held their own a bit better, at least through the first half against the Volunteers. And they could get reinforcements this week in DE Chico Bennett, Jr. and S Antonio Clary who have been practicing this week after being held out of Game 1. But Tennessee also missed some huge opportunities by turning the ball over and outright dropping a sure touchdown after the Cavs were beat deep.
If UVA is to pull the upset, it sure feels like a messy grind of a game (and the weather could help here too if it turns ugly) in the 17-16 or 20-13 range is their best bet. Use the emotion of the day and the fear of an awful September (they have Maryland and NC State next before a soft landing at last with BC) to hang in this game no matter what. Even with JMU’s own concerns at QB, a track meet against the Dukes O-Line and skill players feels like a recipe for disaster.
How JMU Can Win
Make the plays that are available in the passing game. It would also be great to see JMU continue the Special Teams sharpness (especially if there is wet weather) we saw in Week 1 and we’re confident the Defense will come to play even if they give up a couple big plays. But the most important thing for the Dukes is to make the basic plays through the air offensively. If McCloud can take what’s available and keep the UVA defense honest – even if there aren’t flashy plays downfield – than the running game will eventually find its groove with JMU’s talented and veteran groups on the OLine and in the backfield. When McCloud came in the game last week, it was just as important when he made the simple throw to Horton, thus backing a couple defenders out of the box, as it was when he hit the highlight reel to Brown later on. Avoiding huge mistakes and being able to patiently await them from this UVA team that’s still finding its way would be just fine.
Defensively, we saw JMU challenge Bucknell at the line and dare them to throw. To the Bison’s credit, they hit a few plays in the first half against this setup, but at some point that broke down and we don’t expect anything different this week. While it’s obvious the Cavaliers have considerably more talent than Bucknell, the gameplan against a limited QB or a true freshman is likely the same. Throw your firepower at stopping the run (look for bigger impacts this week from James Carpenter and Tyrique Tucker inside and Chukweneke/Reid at the Rover spot) and force passing situations whenever possible. UVA likely won’t avoid Chauncey Logan’s side like last week so we’re excited for a possible huge play at some point from the sophomore corner.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Commonwealth Brewing’s Papi Chulo. Seems fitting to have the one of Virginia’s best breweries be so aptly named for this one and taste so good all in a purple can! You could also scrap the beer and make it a mimosa morning. Certainly fits the vibe “on grounds” and honestly, this matchup is truly worth celebrating!
Official JMUSB Prediction
Dukes 31, Cavaliers 17 – This one is back and forth for a good while, but JMU finds a few more big plays and the Cavs offense can’t keep pace over four quarters.
The Basics
Matchup: Bucknell Bison (0-0, 0-0 Patriot League (FCS)) at JMU Dukes (0-0, 0-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 6 p.m. EDT. Saturday, September 2, 2023, Bridgeforth Stadium, The ‘burg
Weather: Sunny, low 80s
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: Good luck finding a shop that’ll take this one but the line’s gotta be a lot. And whatever it is, it isn’t enough.
How We Got Here
The Dukes had a dream start to their 1-A tenure last season, finishing atop the Sun Belt East at 8-3, spending a glorious week in the Top 25, and adding some new games to the list of legends with the comeback in Boone and the blowout of Coastal to win the East. But where last year we all entered the season thinking the MTSU game was a tossup and having no idea what to expect, fans are back to believing that a repeat of last season’s record is expected.
Bucknell struggled mightily in a Patriot League that has seen one program (Holy Cross) invest mightily in football and distance themselves from its conference mates by a wide margin over the last few years since the League finally changed its scholarship rules to allow for a more even playing field with the rest of FCS. But the Bison did finish strong last year winning their last two games. They enter 2024 with a veteran group and much higher hopes.
How Bucknell Can Win
Produce a bunch of Dukes turnovers at the perfect times. Bucknell is an extremely veteran team on both lines. The D-Line has multiple 6th year players who have seen a lot, including plenty of FBS matchups, so they won’t be scared by the atmosphere the way other FCS teams sometimes were. DE Tyler Alston will need to get in the Dukes backfield and screw things up because the skill-player disadvantage will be significant. On offense, they need to grind out just enough yards to hang onto possession behind their best players Tackle Ethan Pitzel and Guard Casey Stephenson. 3 and outs will absolutely crush them because while they may be able to anticipate the Dukes starting slowly with a new QB1, that won’t last for 60 minutes. Beyond that, they’d need to swap uniforms with the smellier Bizens up even further north to keep it close.
How JMU Can Win
Don’t beat themselves and don’t freak out. The Dukes are the better team and should roll. While nervous fans like us have long memories (don’t say Bloomsburg) of nervy opening buy-games at BFS, the squad has really handled business in these situations throughout the post-Mickey era. But with a young QB in Alonza Barnett III making his first start after a real camp competition, a veteran O-Line that hasn’t necessarily been pushed to earn their spots in camp this year, and a massive return to big expectations after coming into the season with relatively lower pressure last season, they need to just settle in and play within themselves. The rest should take care of itself. Defensively, anything more than 10 points from the Bison would be a disappointment as this team struggled to score against their peers last year. Given the talent and experience JMU has on that side, it would be a surprise if Bucknell is able to manage much beyond a big play or two that can be expected in Week One.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Daycation IPA, Highland Brewing, Asheville, NC – Basically Asheville’s version’s of All-Day. Crisp with low ABV perfect for a long sunny tailgate on Labor Day weekend from one of North Carolina’s OG breweries.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 48, Bucknell 10 – enjoy this one cause things heat up in a hurry this month
The Basics
Matchup: #23 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-1, 6-1 Sun Belt) at JMU Dukes (7-3, 5-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: Noon EST. Saturday, November 26, 2022, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: Partly Sunny. High 56.
Broadcast: ESPNU (National U Doubleheader treatment for the SBC)
Boys in the Desert: JMU -14, O/U 54 (this is wild to us but might as well roll with it!)
How We Got Here
The Dukes fumbled 17 billion times last week, but otherwise looked a hell of a lot healthier than they’ve been since early October in another 20-point comeback to end Georgia State’s bowl hopes and set up this Sun Belt East Title Game. Plus we have to think they’ll be primed to send out a decorated and meaningful senior class (Percy, Kyle Davis, KT, Ukwu, Ravenel, Kidd, Painter, etc.). JMU is 7-3 in their first full season in FBS and a win Saturday would mean they win the Sun Belt East. No matter what the rules or technicalities say, everyone would know (but mainly Coastal would know) who the real champs are and who really belongs in the Sun Belt Title game with Troy next week. And what better way to wind up this magical first-FBS season than having Brideforth welcome a ranked team for the first time ever!
Coastal had an unexpected bye week for the worst reason imaginable as their scheduled trip to Charlottesville to take on the Cavaliers was cancelled. Prior to that they survived their game without QB1 Grayson McCall with a 26-23 win over Southern Miss. Not unlike the Dukes, Coastal has been a study in how a winning program culture can sometimes carry you even when the matchups don’t seem in your favor. They’ve survived all year and won close game after close game even though it seems they don’t quite have the talent or the edge they did during the last two seasons. After all of that they stand at 9-1, ranked 23rd, and with an outside shot at a New Year’s Six bowl depending on results in the AAC.
How Coastal Can Win
Hang in the game long enough defensively to allow their insanely creative offense to confuse JMU’s young and transitioning defense. The Chants’ defense has been…meh. They give up 27 points a game and have only held one team under 21 all season. They give up 400 yards per game. But they have been opportunistic with almost as many sacks and turnovers forced as JMU. In other words, they aren’t good but they’re often complimentary to Head Coach Jamey Chadwell’s extremely creative offense. Is it option? Is it spread? Is it pistol? It’s sort of all of them and it averages 32 points and nearly 430 yards per game. With JMU playing more and more youth on defense right now, we’ve seen the Dukes give up some long broken plays the last few weeks and Coastal seems capable of finding a few of those too.
How JMU Can Win
Don’t beat themselves. Step 1 of this is “don’t fumble every other play.” But Step 2 requires the Dukes to handle the emotions of this week. It’s essentially JMU’s bowl game, we all know the real stakes, it’s a ranked team at BFS, it’s a blackout game with fancy unis, it’s an important Senior Day, and it’s unusual for JMU in that it’s a finite last game. In other words, chances are the Dukes will come out sky-high. Early on they need to use that emotion to do their individual jobs and not try to do too much. If there’s adversity (like last week), they also need to not let the emotion and the ending of this season overwhelm them into frustration.
But beyond that, JMU with a healthy Centeio is simply better than Coastal without Grayson McCall. With the exception of Reggie Brown, the Dukes’ offense is relatively healthy and has certainly looked as dangerous again the last two weeks as it did during the heady early season. Chadwell wasn’t playing games when he noted in this week’s presser that JMU’s O-Line is the best they’ve seen all year. And if JMU’s defense can stick to their assignments and stay home against misdirection, we’ve seen what the Dukes are capable of against teams that struggle in the passing game and have to stay on the ground against Ukwu, Edwards, Carp, and co.
Historical Footnote
JMUSB Beer of the Week
We had another beer here, but if you don’t know why we’re now going with Atrevida Beer Co’s Christopher Street Pale Ale, you really should read this story about a helper/hero that would make even Fred Rogers smile. Plus, who doesn’t love a hoppy Pale (instead of an IPA, think Blue Mountain’s Full Nelson)?
Official JMUSB Prediction
Beach chickens. Basically the Delaware of the Sun Belt. Already crowing about “winning” and “clinching” the Sun Belt East when the real ones will know the truth come late afternoon Saturday.
JMU 38, Coastal 13
The Basics
Matchup: Georgia State Panthers (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) at JMU Dukes (6-3, 4-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. EST. Saturday, November 19, 2022, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: Sunny. High 42. Season has changed; plan accordingly.
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -9.5, O/U 53
How We Got Here
Even with injuries continuing to cause problems, the Dukes looked considerably closer to their high-flying selves in Norfolk last week with the healthy return of huge contributors like Tackle Nick Kidwell, Linebacker Jailyn Walker, and QB1 looking like normal (tbd after the ankle last week though).
Georgia State on the other hand is the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team the Dukes have seen all year. Take a look at their progression through the schedule and tell us what to make of it:
35-14 L @ South Carolina (expected), 35-28 L vs. UNC (strong showing), 42-41 L vs. Charlotte (WTF?!), 41-24 L vs. Coastal (maybe about right but now they’re 0-4), 31-14 W @ Army (proud showing), 41-33 W vs. Georgia Southern (definitely not mailing it in yet), 42-17 L @ App (bad performance against an overrated team), 31-17 W vs. ODU (happy times for Homecoming as injuries start to mount for the Monarchs), 42-14 W @ Southern Miss (hell yes, the traditional late-season-push is on from the Panthers and almost back to .500), 31-28 L vs. UL Monroe (WTH? at home?!)
As you can tell, there is simply no consistent narrative that makes the Panthers’ campaign make any sense. But they’ve got two games left and need two wins to get back to .500 and become bowl eligible. Is that motivation enough to play well on a cold day in the Valley?
How Georgia State Can Win
Play one of their good games and ride a balanced offense to win a high-scoring affair. Georgia St. has strong athletes on defense, but let’s be realistic – the only teams they’ve held below 24 points in 9 games so far are run-ONLY teams Army and Southern Miss who each still managed 14 points and offensively-limited ODU who got to 17. They generously gave up 40 plus to App, Coastal, and Charlotte (seriously, Charlotte). The Panthers average 30 points a game. They also give up 30 points a game. They simply have to keep scoring and hope the Dukes make the kind of mistakes that cost them the Ga. Southern game.
QB Darren Grainger is the best true dual-threat QB that JMU has seen yet. He’s coming off a game where he threw for 349 and rushed for 81 on a substantial 17 carries. Receiver Jamari Thrash has been a standout all year and RB Marcus Carroll is solid all-around. That offense better come to play these last couple weeks as Georgia State heads north to the mountains in both weeks to JMU and Marshall, two teams that play a bit of defense.
How JMU Can Win
Be smart (maybe even cautious?) on offense and swallow up any will to win on defense. If JMU can play the kind of defense we’ve come to expect this week – largely shutting down the run game and making a few plays on the back end – this could be a rude awakening for the Panthers. It’s going to be a chilly 40-ish degrees (Dukes fans know the difference between 40 in NoVa or RVA and 40 in the ‘Burg) and the Dukes should be charged back up after righting the ship last week.
Offensively, JMU just needs to be crisp and relatively mistake-free. Georgia State’s track record is clear that competent teams will get to the 30’s and if the Dukes can avoid turnovers, feed the backfield trio and take what’s there, there’s zero reason to think they won’t do the same. If Centeio is limited at all after appearing to sprain an ankle last week, that will be even more reason to lean on the running backs and the short passing game (could we see more WR screens to Thornton and Ravenel again?).
Historical Footnote
This will be JMU’s second time playing (and hosting) Georgia St. The Panthers spent one season in 2012 in the CAA before bolting for the Sun Belt. The Dukes won that game 28-21 at Bridgeforth in one of the bash-your-head-in Mickey-iest games ever. Michael Birdsong was making his first collegiate start, and his only one that season, after Justin Thorpe had been injured the previous week at Bridgeforth East. Birdsong was predictably bad in that offense that day and the Dukes hammered it with the only offensive sparkplug of the late-era Mickey days, Dae’Quan Scott who went for 130 on 25 carries. We remember being at the game and before it was even over discussing how it was going to be one of the most forgettable games we would ever have been at and that thought has aged well (or aged poorly depending on your perspective). Here’s to starting fresh with a Georgia St. team that could end up being more of a rival than we realize over the next decade in both football and hoops.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Skipping Rock Roasted Pecan Brown English Brown Ale – You may not realize it, but Staunton’s Skipping Rock has bought out Pale Fire and that makes our old friends in the ‘burg worth re-visiting these days. Not only do they finally have tv’s now where you can actually watch the game, but they also kept the better beers but have started brewing in a way that won’t leave your gut a mess the next morning. Oh yeah, and Skipping Rock has been turning out a solid lineup for a while. This time of year is perfect for this almost smoky brown ale. Plus, they’re doing things up and down the Valley as they’re opening another small satellite tasting room under the Pale Fire name in Basye just outside the entrance to Bryce Resort – think the original Devil’s Backbone circa 2011 before all the AB/InBev nonsense.
Official JMUSB Prediction
ATL kids headed north on a cold, windy day with the sweet smell of butchered poultry flying up and down 81 for Thanksgiving next week. What could go wrong? Everything!
JMU 38, Georgia St. 17
