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JMU Basketball plays at Drexel tonight. The Dukes currently sit at 6-17 overall and 2-8 in league, with just 8 games remaining before the CAA tourney. They’re last in the CAA. This is coming on the heels of a season in which they went 10-23 and finished 8th in the league. On paper at least, things are looking pretty bleak. But are they getting better or worse?<\/p>\n
We don’t want to debate whether or not Matt Brady, whose JMU team won 20 games in his final year, deserved to be let go. And we don’t want to have an argument about whether Head Coach Lou Rowe was the right guy for the job. What we’d like to figure out, is if folks think there’s light at the end of this tunnel, or if this is a train headed for a crash. So try to forget all of the Brady and Rowe stuff and just think about the team right now. Do you think it’s trending up or trending down?<\/p>\n
Based on the records, the most reasonable response is probably to shrug your shoulders and say it doesn’t matter. The bottom of the CAA is the bottom of the CAA. Unfortunately, it seems like most fans have just sort of checked out and probably won’t return until the Dukes see rise in the standings. We’ve stuck around though. And surviving the Dillard and Keener years, we’ve developed a thick skin when it comes to JMU hoops. Things could always be worse.<\/p>\n
Positive Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n There are a few reasons to believe JMU is getting better. And the primary one is that the overall talent level of the roster has been upgraded. We don’t want to name names or disparage any past Dukes, but from our perspective there are guys who started or got major minutes over the last 3-4 years, who probably wouldn’t see the court for this team. Rowe has recruited a number of freshmen and transfers who are more athletic and gifted than many recent players. Stucky Mosley and Matt Lewis have deservedly gotten the majority of the hype, but Phillips, Banks, Wilson and others are have a lot of upside.<\/p>\n And despite the poor record, the Dukes do some things well. They’ve been the best at taking care of the basketball in league play, with a turnover percentage of just 13.5%. For a young team that has virtually no experience playing as a unit, that’s a positive sign. And despite the fact that they’ve let opponents shoot well, they’ve blocked a lot of shots and forced a lot of turnovers.<\/p>\n They’ve also played team’s tough and have been in virtually every game. They’ve suffered some heartbreaking close losses and aren’t getting blown out of the gym. If you just tuned in for a single game, it’s almost unquestionable that you’d think the Dukes were on the brink of turning the corner.<\/p>\n Negative Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n That talk above about JMU playing team’s close? Well they’re still losing. As they saying goes, “you are what your record says you are.” If that’s your belief, then we’ve got nothing for you. They’re going to end up in the play-in round of the CAA tourney and are guaranteed to finish with a losing record. Again.<\/p>\n The Dukes don’t shoot well either. They can get to the basket and score using their athleticism, but the team struggles to create easy shots. In today’s game, that’s a tough thing to overcome. Other mid majors have shown that sometimes the quickest path to success is to develop a drive and kick offense featuring a few reliable long range shooters. JMU hasn’t been able to do that. They’ve got an effective field goal percentage of 47.9% (286th in the nation). They’re not very good from long range and well, they’re not outstanding shooters from anywhere on the court. Watching the games, our eyes tell us that the poor shooting is more a result of bad shot selection than poor technique. The fact that JMU is pretty good from the FT line backs up the notion that the technique isn’t the problem. Maybe the offense will improve as these guys get more experience. Or maybe there’s a problem with the offensive philosophy in general.<\/p>\n Now What?<\/strong><\/p>\n The record is bad. We get that. And some of the underlying metrics don’t paint a pretty picture. The offense looks lost at times and things have fallen apart late in games. But, Matt Lewis has earned CAA Rookie of the Week three times. Stucky Mosley is averaging 19 points a game. Develle Phillips gives the Dukes a post presence and can rebound the basketball. Darius Banks has had several big double-doubles and shown flashes of greatness. So Rowe can recruit. But the late game execution is concerning, which points back to both inexperience and coaching. We still think that the talent upgrade is reason enough to think the Dukes are are pointed in the right direction. We won’t argue that they’ve taken a weird step back route to get here, but we think things will get better. Maybe we’re crazy or drunk on Purple Kool Aid though. We’ll see.<\/p>\n