{"id":11996,"date":"2024-10-04T11:15:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T15:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=11996"},"modified":"2024-10-04T11:38:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T15:38:02","slug":"jmu-at-ul-monroe-official-2024-jmusb-game-5-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=11996","title":{"rendered":"JMU at UL Monroe: Official 2024 JMUSB Game #5 Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yes, it is I: NotRob and NotTodd. After torturing my keyboard for years in service of the Dukes, I shamelessly offered my pen in the JMUSB preview department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like writing about sports. I love writing about the Dukes. I\u2019ve said this before in other settings, but I actually give Todd & Rob a lot of credit for that. If you time-traveled back to Harrison Hall, somewhere around 2011, you\u2019d have found me frantically reading JMUSB between WRTC classes and Breeze<\/em> assignments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a restless decade with JMU bylines in HERO Sports, the DNR, the RTD, and several other places, I settled down with a day job at BetMGM. Sure, I don\u2019t get to write about the Dukes too much, but I do<\/em> get health insurance. Life is about tradeoffs, I guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, I mention that because I\u2019ll probably have one or two bonus insights to share from the perspective of someone who works with odds for a living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other than that, JMUSB has always had a wonderful, no-nonsense preview formula, so there\u2019s no need to fix what ain\u2019t broken. Here\u2019s my perspective on Week 6: JMU at UL Monroe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Basics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matchup: JMU (4-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at UL Monroe (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT, Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather: Sunny, 80<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU after JMU\u2019s demolition job in Chapel Hill<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O\/U 48.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This number opened at JMU -14.5 and was quickly bet down to JMU -16.5 by the end of Monday. The area between 14 and 17 is generally considered to be dead numbers, so it\u2019s no surprise that the tremendous betting appetite around the Dukes is smashing this from one key number to the next. If you start to see JMU -17 or lower before kickoff, it\u2019s a big sign that pros really<\/em> like the boys in purple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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JMU QB Alonza Barnett III has accounted for 13 TDs in two weeks.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How We Got Here<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think the best way to think about September is to imagine it as a two-act play of non-conference games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charlotte and Gardner-Webb made up the first half. The coaching staff had dozens of new players to see and understand. They staged tryouts. Some stuff worked. Others didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Week 3 \u2013 the bye week \u2013 was the intermission. During that time off, the coaching staff tweaked some character roles, changed the set design, and emphasized how great the second act might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second half \u2013 North Carolina and Ball State \u2013 delivered a thunderous conclusion on a grand stage. The Chesney staff was extremely prepared for the UNC game, then followed it up with a meticulous, business-like destruction of a bad Ball State team. It\u2019s hard to argue with 133 points of offense in two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMU now enters non-conference play in Week 6 as the betting favorite to win the Sun Belt. That\u2019s the value a splashy September can bring, since the Dukes were looking up at App State, Texas State, and Louisiana prior to the start of this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three Things to Know About UL-Monroe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Rise<\/em> \u2013 UL Monroe has three winning seasons in its history as an FBS program. Two of them came in the 20th<\/sup> century, prior to moving to I-AA (now FCS) in the 1980s. Historically, Funroe is not actually all that fun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New head coach Bryant Vincent might put a real dent in that. An SBC-East draw vs. JMU and at Marshall could be tough sledding, and the Warhawks also have to go to Auburn in November. Still, a 3-1 start with wins against Troy and UAB is a pretty nice start for a new coach at a program which is historically a dead end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not the walkover that many JMU fans (including me) thought it might be in the summer. Don\u2019t be surprised if the Warhawks make their first bowl game since 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Step Up On Defense <\/em>\u2013 It feels a bit weird to say this, but I am expecting UL Monroe\u2019s defense to challenge JMU more than its recent opponents have. Yes, I am including UNC in that assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I find Parker Fleming\u2019s College Football Insiders<\/a> to be a helpful tool in scouting the general neighborhood for opponents. There are 134 teams currently in FBS, and Ball State ranks 134th<\/sup> in defensive EPA\/play. UNC ranks in the middle of the pack, but by Mack Brown\u2019s own admission, he did a poor job scouting and preparing the team for JMU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monroe ranks in the same neighborhood as UNC and will have the benefit of watching a month of tendencies on film. In two games against other G5 programs like Troy and UAB, it has allowed 15 total points. I think JMU\u2019s offense is clearly better than Troy and UAB, but probably not eight full touchdowns better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of the scheme, personnel, and game circumstances, I think Monroe\u2019s defense will be JMU\u2019s toughest offensive challenge to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An Opportunistic Offense <\/em>\u2013 The Monroe offense is\u2026 well, let’s call it a work in progress. Effective quarterback play is a big problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of total yardage, Monroe had barely 100 yards against Texas and was outgained by Troy in a close win. The Warhawks beat UAB last month, 32-6, yet somehow had only 37 more yards of total offense. That\u2019s kind of incredible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monroe pulls this off because it relies on a field position game driven by its defense. In a brave new world of analytics and fourth down risk, the Warhawks will drives short fields, then run Max Larson out to kick field goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That will create an interesting contrast with JMU, since the Dukes arguably have the better field goal kicker in Noe Ruelas but are far more aggressive in fourth down situations. The Dukes may elect to play more conservatively and take the points in a muggy road game; alternatively, Monroe may feel like it may need to be more aggressive on fourth down to keep up with JMU\u2019s offense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How JMU Can Win<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a rare game where I think special teams may take center stage. Monroe\u2019s modus operandi is winning via field position, but that\u2019s difficult to do against a JMU team with elite punting and kicking talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMU can pin Monroe\u2019s one-dimensional offense against its own end zone, then win with short fields of its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think this is also a game where composure and consistency will be incredibly important. One week ago, JMU played a magnificent offensive game, supported by a dreadful opposing defense. Two weeks ago, it played a magical game against an ACC opponent where virtually every single high-leverage play went JMU\u2019s way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a natural letdown spot where the offense will almost certainly experience some regression. Alonza Barnett has been incredible<\/em> over the last two weeks; he\u2019s also a sophomore with five career starts, and one of them was 13 months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If JMU turns the ball over, or has a string of several empty possessions in a row, it\u2019ll be important for the team to keep the faith through that eventual, inevitable hardship. I have a lot of faith in the leadership of this coaching staff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMUSB Beer of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Urban South\u2019s Paradise Park. I will be the first to admit the OG JMUSB boys can run circles around me in the craft beer department, especially when we get into the nichier spaces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caveats aside, I\u2019m hunting for Louisiana beer this week, where I\u2019m partial to Urban South\u2019s Coop\u2019d Up Farmhouse Ale. But if that proves hard to find, Paradise Park is more widely available and is a 4.5% ABV for all seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019ll be handy for Dukes of all locations \u2013 whether you\u2019re on the back porch in good ol\u2019 VA or<\/em> sweating through a Louisiana tailgate that might still touch 90 during the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Official JMUSB Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMU 26, UL Monroe 13<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It might be an unpopular opinion right now, but I don\u2019t think JMU will score 60+ points in every remaining game this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going on the road to play an unfamiliar conference opponent, several hundred miles away and in a different time zone, is traditionally a difficult thing to do. I watched Bryant Vincent\u2019s media availability this week, and he made several overtures to pack the stands. The coaching staff understands the program-building opportunity that is in front of them this week with JMU in town. I expect the Dukes will get their best punch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A night game in Louisiana is probably going to deliver frustrating moments for JMU fans. I do think this game will be competitive. Ultimately, I think the potential for big plays on offense is a major separator between these two teams. Barring a 2018-esque avalanche of turnovers, JMU should escape its first conference trip to Louisiana with a win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Manically Tracking The Many Public Enemies of Harrisonburg In Week 6<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Syracuse at UNLV (Friday, FS1, 9 p.m. ET)<\/em> \u2013 UNLV is currently ranked and undefeated, so they\u2019re certainly relevant to the CFP discussion. However, sportsbooks aren\u2019t taking them too seriously as a playoff threat, for whatever that\u2019s worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless, a third game against a P4 opponent is something we should carefully watch, as I don\u2019t think the Orange are getting a ton of respect here. They\u2019re clearly capable of winning this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navy at Air Force (Saturday, CBS, 12 p.m. ET)<\/em> \u2013 If you haven\u2019t watched Navy yet, give them a screen on an open weekend where you\u2019re not tied down. They\u2019re really good this year, with a quarterback who actually throws the ball! Like, throws it well! Blake Horvath currently leads all FBS quarterbacks in Total QBR, and Navy gets a home game against Notre Dame. The Middies should be taken very seriously as a CFP threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, Air Force is very bad this year, so I wouldn\u2019t hold your breath on this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utah State at Boise State (Saturday, FS2, 7 p.m. ET) <\/em>\u2013 Boise State is the big favorite to make the CFP right now, at least according to odds markets. I\u2019m skeptical they\u2019re going to get through a pretty good Mountain West without at least one conference loss, but I don\u2019t think dreadful Utah State will be the one to deliver the potential knockout punch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is another one where you can safely assume Boise will live to fight another day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida International at Liberty (Tuesday, CBS Sports Net, 7 p.m.)<\/em> \u2013 Because our neighbors to the south play in a Mickey Mouse conference desperate for fresh meat and TV exposure, they\u2019ll play 100% of their October contests on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Technically, this is a Week 7 game, but since it\u2019s also only 96 hours away, let\u2019s include it here anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liberty fans love to defend their Charmin-soft strength of schedule, but even they seemed to know the potential damage of losing the App State roadie from their 2024 lineup of opponents. I remain skeptical the all-important poll voters will put Liberty ahead of other qualifying G5 teams in the polls without total and absolute carnage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s especially true this year \u2013 not just because of the lingering effects of last year\u2019s Fiesta Bowl blowout, but also because this Liberty team just hasn\u2019t been dominant like last year. The Flames have started game slowly and lethargically, even against bad teams. Given the game script against Mike Houston\u2019s boys a couple weeks ago, it seems pretty unlikely that Liberty would have come back at all if ECU\u2019s future NFL corner hadn\u2019t torn his ACL a couple days earlier in practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So that\u2019s<\/em> what I\u2019m looking for on Tuesday, moreso than the result. FIU lost to Monmouth a couple weeks ago, so this is yet another instance where a JMU-friendly upset looks pretty unlikely. Still, with Liberty sitting idle for about 17 days, and a tendency for sluggishness, the first half of this game could be pretty interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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