{"id":12031,"date":"2024-11-08T13:30:35","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T18:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12031"},"modified":"2024-11-08T13:31:16","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T18:31:16","slug":"georgia-state-at-jmu-official-jmusb-game-9-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12031","title":{"rendered":"Georgia State at JMU: Official JMUSB Game #9 Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Basics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matchup: Georgia State (2-6, 0-4 Sun Belt) at JMU (6-2, 2-2 Sun Belt)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather: 55 and Partly Sunny. Excellent weather, considering it\u2019s Week 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broadcast: ESPN+<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O\/U 54.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dukes have covered only one game since September and are a bit of a mystery coming out of the second bye. I would not consider taking a side in this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total is a little more interesting. Thanks to a boom-or-bust offense and a consistently high-performing defense, JMU has now covered four straight unders. If I\u2019m betting anything in this game, it\u2019d be Under 54.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Georgia State, ODU, App State, Marshall. The all-important stretch run begins on Saturday. <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How We Got Here<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

October was the month where reality caught back up with JMU Football. After Harrisonburg maybe got a little high on its own supply in the closing weeks of September, the October results reminded us that 2024 is a rebuilding campaign for JMU\u2019s storied football program. Ups and downs were probably always inevitable this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There’s the good: JMU bludgeoned Coastal Carolina in a nationally televised game. It reached conventional bowl eligibility for the first-ever time as an FBS program. And for those familiar with the dark art that is marketing, there was plenty of earned media<\/em> \u2013 a fancy way of saying that JMU was quite publicly visible in traditional and social media sources, even after dropping from the ranks of the undefeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, there’s the not-so-good: JMU lost both of its road games in October. The second loss came in Statesboro, which handed control of the division to Georgia Southern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it\u2019s still technically<\/em> possible that JMU could edge out the Eagles in a complex, three-way tiebreaker scenario, it\u2019s pretty unlikely following Old Dominion\u2019s Week 10 loss to App State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia Southern is the likely winner of the Sun Belt East. And following some bye week reflections, I\u2019ll go a step further than that \u2013 Southern is probably the correct representative for the division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even still, the JMU football community still has plenty of valuable things to focus on. Beyond just the week-to-week focus of winning games, JMU can still earn valuable rivalry wins over Old Dominion and App State. It can still win 10 games this season. It could still earn an excellent bowl matchup against a worthy end-of-season competitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So for anyone that needs that gentlest of reminders, just remember \u2013 there\u2019s a lot left to play for beyond a possible conference title. The stretch run begins on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four Things to Know About Georgia State<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Making the Best of an Impossible Situation <\/em>\u2013 Georgia State was dealt a bad hand this season. The Panthers are already a traditional bottom-feeder, and that status quo was underscored when former Georgia State coach Shawn Elliott left the program after the spring game<\/em> to take a position as the tight ends coach at South Carolina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That kind of fire drill rarely ends with anything other than total chaos. GSU brought in Georgia run game coordinator Dell McGee, who has done about as good a job with a challenging situation as anyone could ask for. The Panthers have been competitive in virtually every game they\u2019ve played.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everything Is On the Table <\/em>\u2013 In betting terms, Georgia State is what we call a high-variance team. In Week 2, the Panthers needed a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter to survive FCS Chattanooga. Then, days later, they beat Vanderbilt. The Commodores subsequently turned around and beat Alabama in Week 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transitional property of wins is not something I make a habit of referencing in routine analysis, but it does speak to the abnormally high volume of outcomes that Georgia State seems to play toward. These days, the Panthers are consistently playing up to their opponents; three of their last four games have finished as one-score games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tech-to-State Pipeline <\/em>\u2013 Christian Veilleux won the quarterback job in camp, but the GSU coaching staff made the move to former Georgia Tech quarterback Zach Gibson in the second half of the Old Dominion game. They\u2019ve stuck with Gibson in the weeks since, and that\u2019s who JMU should expect to see on Saturday. For Gibson, the move across town has paid off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaky Run Defense\u2026 Again <\/em>\u2013 Before the bye, JMU drew Southern Miss in its second cross-divisional draw, and the Dukes ran the ball right at the Golden Eagles\u2019 dreadful run defense to the tune of about five yards per carry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia State has a run defense bad enough to rival Southern Miss, ranking 130th<\/sup> in FBS in EPA allowed per opponent rush attempt. They play three down linemen in base at the line of scrimmage, forfeiting size up front for versatility and speed on the back end. Expect another heavy dose of the run as JMU looks to reignite its ground game against a smaller team at the start of its stretch run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How JMU Can Win<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dominate the clock while playing smart, mistake-free football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia State is another team that clearly operates at a talent deficit relative to JMU. They have clear vulnerabilities that can be exploited. This should be a great matchup for old-school, smashmouth football. Dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides, and use the run game to set up Alonza for play action deep shots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMUSB Beer of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turbo Reaper by 3 Floyds Brewing Company. This is a 7% American IPA that I recently had on draft at a Capital Ale House in Midlothian, and I enjoyed it enough to put it in my notes for BotW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3 Floyds is an Indiana brewery, so the Virginia market saturation isn\u2019t as high as some of the more local breweries you might know, but it\u2019s still available at Wegmans and all over Northern Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Official JMUSB Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

JMU 29, Georgia State 13. A refreshed offensive line posts a strong game north of five yards per carry, and JMU handles business ahead of next week\u2019s rivalry game in Norfolk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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