{"id":12091,"date":"2025-10-27T22:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T02:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12091"},"modified":"2025-10-28T09:37:01","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T13:37:01","slug":"jmu-at-texas-state-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12091","title":{"rendered":"JMU at Texas State Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>The Basics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Matchup:<\/em> JMU (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) at Texas State (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kickoff:<\/em> 8 p.m. ET <strong>ON A TUESDAY<\/strong>, UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Weather:<\/em> 76 and Sunny. Finally some redemption for those of us that have made some very cold trips to Texas for JMU Football over the years!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Broadcast:<\/em> ESPN2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Day Job Numbers:<\/em> JMU -7, ML -275; O\/U 55.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This opened JMU -6.5 at most books, including my home base at BetMGM. The fact that it quickly popped up to a key number suggests there is buy-in on the Dukes from more than just the guy at the end of the bar.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"JMU Football | Bob Chesney Weekly Press Conference - Oct. 23, 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OQ8R7FXslA4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Quirky Appetizer vs. Godless Abomination<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s get the obvious thing out of the way. College football on a Tuesday night is extraordinarily weird.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s a certain give-and-take flow to these weeks in the fall, where fans can work through the week and get rewarded with college football on Saturday. A Tuesday game messes up that relationship.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even weirder is a Tuesday game that naturally becomes the teams\u2019 only contest in a 20-day period. That\u2019s just downright bizarre.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve all collectively grown used to weird MAC and Conference USA teams playing in these early-week monstrosities. I suppose that\u2019s because bad football is better than no football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This game between Texas State and JMU is so unusual because it\u2019s <em>not<\/em> bad football. One stat of many: both teams rank among the top 50 FBS teams in yards per play.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dukes are even receiving votes in the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/ap-top-25-college-football-poll\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Week 10 AP Poll<\/a> now. No team mentioned anywhere in an AP Poll (RV or otherwise) has played on a regular-season Tuesday night in more than two years. Amusingly, the last such game was in October 2023, when Liberty was near the top of the RV section and played a great-for-a-Tuesday roadie at Western Kentucky. (That same week, JMU had cracked the AP Poll at No. 25.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I guess what I\u2019m trying to say is that your mileage might vary on these Tuesday games. I think I\u2019ve decided I prefer to watch directional schools from Michigan play in any time period that takes place between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the bright side, watching your team play on a Tuesday is probably the closest an adult can ever come to recreating that childlike feeling of your parents letting you stay up until midnight for New Year\u2019s Eve. There\u2019s a real sense of getting something that\u2019s strange, forbidden, unique \u2013 and it might not come around again for a while. So there is that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just make sure you have a good excuse for why you\u2019re hungover at work on Wednesday morning.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Four Things To Know About Texas State<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ironic Repeat Offender <\/em>\u2013 Texas State is the first Sun Belt West team that JMU has drawn more than once in its cross-divisional matchups. The Bobcats came to Harrisonburg in JMU\u2019s first FBS season, in 2022. (Those who frequent home games will remember this as a particularly unpleasant game impacted by the outskirts of Hurricane Ian.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, this is likely a one-and-done trip to San Marcos for JMU, since the Bobcats will be departing the Sun Belt for the new Pac-12. So the fact that JMU squeezed two games in against Texas State in its first four years is pretty amusing, to say the least.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Win or lose, make sure you wave goodbye on the way out of town.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Snakebitten<\/em> \u2013 The records at the top of the post confirm that this game is first-place JMU playing against last-place Texas State. The Bobcats are 0-3 in the Sun Belt Standings and haven\u2019t beaten an FBS team since the first week of September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I frame it up like that, it sounds like JMU should roll. But this Texas State game presents one of the most dangerous challenges of the season \u2013 And no, I\u2019m not being sarcastic or practicing my coachspeak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s put aside any JMU-specific challenges for a moment. Texas State has been utterly unlucky for about a month, losing three straight Sun Belt games in excruciating fashion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During Texas State\u2019s Oct. 4 conference opener, Arkansas State scored a touchdown with seven seconds left in regulation and won, 31-30. A week later, first-place Troy beat the Bobcats in overtime. In Week 8, the Bobcats went to Marshall and lost, 40-37, in double overtime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is an offensively gifted team, coached by an offensively brilliant coach, that has been on the unlucky side of every conference game it\u2019s played so far. The best team in the conference is coming to town, which gives this Texas State team a glorious opportunity for absolution.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can all but guarantee you that JMU will get Texas State\u2019s best punch this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Action Jackson<\/em> \u2013 Brad Jackson is the new quarterback operating head coach GJ Kinne\u2019s Run &amp; Gun offense this year, and it\u2019s been a productive season for the freshman from San Antonio. He set a career-high with 444 passing yards against Marshall in Week 8; on the ground, he has accounted for eight touchdowns in his last six games.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jackson is one of only two Sun Belt quarterbacks with a Total QBR that ranks among the top 25 scores in FBS. And bonus points for you if you can guess the other one!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(No, not him. It\u2019s Cameran Brown at Georgia State.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Yes, I\u2019m sure. I checked it twice.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(I know what you\u2019re probably wondering, so I\u2019ll just tell you: Alonza Barnett\u2019s QBR of 65.9 currently ranks outside the top 50 in FBS, behind ODU\u2019s Colton Joseph and Marshall\u2019s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Look, don\u2019t get mad at me. I\u2019m just telling you what the stat is.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think the image people have when they think of Kinne and Texas State\u2019s offense is a 2010s-esque Big 12 Air Raid. But this is closer to a true spread with more balance in the run game \u2013 Jackson only attempts about 26 passes per game \u2013 and Kinne is maximizing that multidimensionality with Jackson\u2019s dual-theat skill set.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s have one more offensive stat while we\u2019re on the subject of the run game. Texas State ranks 70th in offensive success rate for run plays, but 34th when you aggregate all its run plays and look at EPA per rush. That means Texas State is popping a ton of big plays on the ground, which sets up their explosive pass potential and skews their per-down advanced analytics.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>On the Road Again<\/em> \u2013 There\u2019s nothing particularly difficult or special about San Marcos. It\u2019s a road destination in the 2025 Sun Belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some people are asking: Wouldn\u2019t it be good if JMU football could leave the confines of the Friendly City and play a complete, 60-minute game of football without bad penalties, unforced errors, high-leverage mistakes, and missed opportunities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resharing a stat I tweeted a few weeks ago here: Since the start of the 2024 season, JMU has had <em>one<\/em> halftime lead in road games against G5 opponents. One. (It was against Charlotte.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When you have to play from behind that much, you eventually get burnt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And look, I know it\u2019s not easy to win on the road in conference games. But if JMU wants to host a conference championship game, or flirt with other hypothetical games beyond that, this is the kind of difficult game JMU has to go win.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JMU needs to execute, play up to its level of talent, and win the game.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How JMU Can Win<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Avoid the slow starts that have plagued JMU on the road, and avoid a negative game script against GJ Kinne\u2019s potent offense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The formula for avoiding these problems is not secret or complicated. JMU can and should run the ball. First down, second down, third down, fourth down.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this post, I\u2019ve highlighted some of what makes Texas State such a dangerous opponent. And while all that is true, the Bobcats are yet another team on JMU\u2019s schedule with a lousy run defense \u2013 119th in EPA\/rush allowed. They are truly bad at defending first down and can be gashed to set up 2nd &amp; short.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JMU should be able to run the ball all day and connect on play action to keep the defense honest. Make Texas State bring its safeties down into the box, then allow Alonza to show off his arm against 1-on-1 coverage.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>JMUSB Beer of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treehouse by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roughhousebrewing.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Roughhouse Brewing<\/a>. This is for the road warriors who made the midweek trip to San Marcos \u2013 stop by a local brewery in the hill country and enjoy this rustic IPA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personally, I\u2019d opt for their Sordid Nature \u2013 an 8.8% ABV dark saison that would be the official pick if we were just a little closer to December. As it stands now, Treehouse is a great IPA choice for a late October conference tilt down in Texas.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Official JMUSB Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas State 25, JMU 20<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beating the tar out of ODU in the second half was truly wonderful. But as I&#8217;ve alluded to, JMU just hasn\u2019t played well on the road during the Chesney era, and this is a 1,000-mile Tuesday road trip against a dangerous, desperate team. Unlike Georgia State and Liberty, Texas State has a real offense that knows how to pass the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, I hope I\u2019m wrong. But my gut says that JMU won\u2019t complete a full sweep through the Sun Belt this year, and I\u2019ve been highlighting this game to friends and family as the most dangerous of the remaining opponents.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll predict that JMU falls behind early, then plays a good second half that ultimately falls short of a full comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Not Talking About It\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/7aV1L2Wc7AAczRIX2hKJrT?utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<iframe src=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fjmusportsblog.com%2F%3Fp%3D12091&amp;layout=standard&amp;show_faces=true&amp;width=450&amp;action=like&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;height=80\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"border:none; overflow:hidden; width:450px; height:80px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\"><\/iframe>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Basics Matchup: JMU (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) at Texas State (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt) Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET ON A TUESDAY, UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas Weather: 76 and Sunny. Finally some redemption for those of us that have made some very cold trips to Texas for JMU Football over the years! Broadcast: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[469,467,456,471],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12063,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12063","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":0},"title":"JMU Football Season Preview: Weber State, The Burden of Favoritism, and the Two Games That Will Define the 2025 Season","date":"August 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Welcome to Week 1 of the 2025 college football season! James Madison football opens up Year 4 of its spectacular FBS era on Saturday.\u00a0 The Week 1 punching bag of the moment is former FCS playoff foil Weber State \u2013 more on the Wildcats in a minute or two. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Football&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/k6bpZciBftI\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":11821,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=11821","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":1},"title":"Texas State @ JMU: Official JMUSB Game #4 Preview","date":"September 30, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Basics Matchup: Texas State Bobcats (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt) at JMU Dukes (3-0, 1-0 Sun Belt) Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EST. Saturday, October 1, 2022, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown Weather: Wet. Also an odd combination of humid and cold with high only around 53. Take note there is no bad weather,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;News&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/SBCBFS.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12085,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12085","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":2},"title":"After Opening Month of Wins, The 2025 JMU Football Season Narrows On Its Biggest Game","date":"October 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I think it\u2019s time for a little football season reset. As the calendar flips to October, JMU Football is 3-1 and looking to build on a 1-0 start in conference play. The first stepping stone on that path is this Saturday, when southern Dukes from all over will gather in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Football&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/KTsW0_mbs54\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3785,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=3785","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":3},"title":"JMU Football Facing Potential Loss of One Guaranteed Win a Year","date":"April 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"With all of the scandals that have rocked college football recently, I've still never heard of a school being penalized by taking away future wins. If the reports are true and Georgia State is indeed headed to the Sun Belt however, then that is exactly what could happen to JMU.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Football&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/georgia-state-football-620x515.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12038,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12038","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":4},"title":"JMU at App State: Official JMUSB Game Preview #11","date":"November 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Basics Matchup: JMU at App State Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET, Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC Weather: Low 40s and Partly Sunny Broadcast: ESPN+ Day Job Numbers: JMU -7 , ML -275; O\/U 59.5 App State has been up and down this year, and the defense has frequently been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Football&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12035,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12035","url_meta":{"origin":12091,"position":5},"title":"JMU at Old Dominion: Official JMUSB Game Preview #10","date":"November 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Basics Matchup: JMU (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Old Dominion (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, VA Weather: 65 and Sunny. What a day for football, with 15 days to go before December! Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU Day Job Numbers: JMU -2.5,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Football&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12091"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12091"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12091\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12094,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12091\/revisions\/12094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}