{"id":12096,"date":"2026-07-27T16:47:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T20:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12096"},"modified":"2026-07-27T16:49:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T20:49:52","slug":"5-key-questions-ahead-of-the-2026-jmu-football-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=12096","title":{"rendered":"5 Key Questions Ahead of the 2026 JMU Football Season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With the World Cup officially over, and college football only a handful of Saturdays away, I\u2019ve moved into full prep season for this fall. I spent a full morning last week studying quarterback moves in the Transfer Portal<\/a>. Side note: Did you know that Arizona State has a new starting QB who came over from Kentucky named Cutter? And that a few hundred miles north, Utah State has a quarterback named McCae Hillstead who committed to USU out of high school, transferred to BYU for two years, and is now back at Utah State? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, I am very in the weeds with my team modeling and Phil Steele magazine these days. A lot of that is for ye olde day job, where I\u2019m churning out preseason college football content with aplomb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Annual Editor\u2019s Note: Chase writes about <\/em>college football odds<\/em><\/a> for BetMGM, which acquired HERO Sports in 2020.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this year, with my twin toddlers finally inching toward the end of the pooping and screaming phase, I have more time to do the kind of rigorous JMU summer work that I\u2019ve done in previous years. Given the transitional nature of the 2026 Dukes, I thought a series of quick-hitting thoughts might allow me to cover the most ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, welcome into the 2026 JMUSB summer series, where I\u2019ll offer several rounds of thoughts and observations on JMU football, the Sun Belt, and college football, with a new season around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is 9-3 the Official Standard for JMU in an FBS Restart?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How does one write about a restart when the restart is this <\/em>big? JMU football is piloting through its third seismic change in five seasons, and setting parameters for a season such as this feels tricky. When in doubt, I look for a little historical context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dukes made their FBS debut in 2022, finishing 8-3 in a frenzied year that included the miraculous App State comeback and a weird Georgia State game that everyone has forgotten. The losses were at Louisville with no quarterback, a road game at Georgia Southern, and a fluky, weird home game against Marshall that included a late-in-the-week injury to the quarterback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, with Curt Cignetti out and Bob Chesney in, JMU went 9-3 in a season marked by major roster reconstruction.The losses were at App State, a road game at Georgia Southern, and a weird, 2OT home game against Marshall that included a late-in-the-game injury to the quarterback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You get the idea. Time is a flat circle, something something something. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Year 1 of Billy Napier\u2019s return to the Sun Belt, there\u2019s a lot of figurin\u2019 out and roster development to work through. I\u2019ve been bullish on some aspects of the team, like the quality of the coaching staff; I\u2019ve been bearish on other aspects, which I will touch on shortly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we\u2019re setting expectations on a totally blank slate, with very little to go on, then I guess I\u2019ll draw the line around 8.5 wins. If JMU wins eight or nine games in 2026, that would be in line with the historical performance of JMU in a transitional year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Not coincidentally, it\u2019s exactly where sportsbooks have drawn the line for JMU, too. The win total for the 2026 Dukes is 8.5 with slight juice to the over.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Old Dominion Ready to Seize the Throne?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a lot of noise this summer about that team over there in Norfolk. Old Dominion has been building its way toward the top of the Sun Belt East, and a lot of people think this could be the year ODU breaks through. The Monarchs won 10 games last season and have been picked near the top of the Sun Belt in a lot of key places this year. They\u2019re second in the East in the Sun Belt Preseason Coaches Poll<\/a>, second in Phil Steele\u2019s mag, second in the Sun Belt football odds<\/a> table\u2026 you get the idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somewhere around this point, JMU fans can laugh the laugh of the righteous and reference a 4-0 FBS record against ODU, punctuated by last year\u2019s obscene second-half beatdown. And hey, it\u2019s that mid-summer period where everything from previous seasons is hard to recall on demand, so let me jog your memory:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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