{"id":3874,"date":"2012-05-01T23:56:49","date_gmt":"2012-05-02T03:56:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=3874"},"modified":"2012-05-02T00:01:45","modified_gmt":"2012-05-02T04:01:45","slug":"potential-odu-move-puts-caa-on-the-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=3874","title":{"rendered":"Potential ODU Move Puts CAA on the Brink"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>According to Lenn Robbins of the NY Post, today was supposed to be the day that VCU and GMU headed to the Atlantic 10. It’s after 10:00 PM as I type this and I think it’s safe to say that prediction is going to be proven false. Of course today could end up being a pretty important day in the CAA’s history anyway thanks to the news that \u00a0ODU could be on its way to Conference USA<\/a>. Robbins’ May 1 deadline might have been off, that doesn’t mean VCU and GMU still won’t end up in the A10 eventually. Butler apparently is on its way<\/a>, which will bring the league to 14 teams. Adding VCU and GMU would bring it to 16 and solidify the A10 as the cream of the mid-major crop. If Charlotte jumps ship for C-USA, that A10 would have to add a third school. You can bet it won’t be JMU because the A10 doesn’t play football and JMU basketball, well, you know.<\/p>\n

It’s All In How You Look At It<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are a million ways to look at these latest developments. When you get down to it though, it basically comes down to either believing the sky is falling or refusing to believe anything at all until official announcements are made. With most things JMU related, I try to take the long view and stay away from the doomsday preppers. It’s pretty hard to do that after the ODU news though. This could be bad for JMU. Really bad. VCU and Mason leaving for the A10 would definitely hurt CAA hoops. As much as I love college basketball, I’ve always believed that football was driving the ship for JMU athletics. I guess I’ve been resolved to the notion that sooner or later, JMU would make a move for football and leave the CAA behind anyway. And for whatever reason, I guess I also let myself believe in this myth that ODU and JMU had some sort of alliance and would be looking to move up together. Clearly, that isn’t the case. And it probably was foolish to ever believe it was.<\/p>\n

The Positive Spin<\/strong><\/p>\n

If ODU bolts, they’ll be ineligible to get the CAA’s FCS playoffs autobid. That’s the best I can do folks.
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\nLooking Out for Number One<\/strong><\/p>\n

Whether these are all baseless rumors or not, the CAA is in trouble. Maybe VCU and Mason really weren’t going to jump ship. The rumors that they might apparently set the wheels in motion for ODU though. And now that ODU seems have one foot out the back door, things could spiral out of control. Why stick around to see how things shake out if your VCU or GMU? Head to safer waters where there is no threat of football tearing your conference apart. Every AD in the CAA has got to be on red alert. It’s like a giant game of liar’s poker. Everyone says things are fine and they’re committed to the CAA. Do you really believe that enough to run the risk of being caught holding the bag if more schools hit the road? I certainly wouldn’t if I was an AD. I’d be working hard to find a new home for my school ASAP.<\/p>\n

Did Jeff Bourne Kick This Snowball Down the Hill?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Poke around the internet for long enough and you’ll find folks speculating on practically any subject you can imagine. You’re probably not going to find any evidence linking JMU to a potential FBS conference though. That doesn’t mean an invite isn’t possible, or even on the way. It’s just not encouraging. And the unfortunate irony here for JMU fans is that Jeff Bourne might have set this whole thing in motion. JMU invested tens of millions of dollars building the finest FCS football stadium in the land. Doing so led to plenty of talk about how the Dukes were looking to move on up in the world of college football. Then last year Jeff Bourne makes it unofficially official by flat out saying that he fully expects JMU to move to the FBS within 18-24 months. Is it possible that those comments and the massive investment in facilities kicked other CAA schools’ contingency planning into over-drive? It would make a lot of sense for non-football schools, like say VCU and GMU, to begin working the phones to find a new dance partner after that. And that could make other schools, like say ODU, nervous and prompt them to make a move. And here we are.<\/p>\n

It’s the Market Stupid<\/strong><\/p>\n

With all due respect to ODU’s football program and the tremendous success they had last year, their potential move to FBS has nothing to do with wins and losses. It’s the market. Hampton-Roads might not be New York City, but it’s a large area with a sizable population and no other major college or professional franchise. It’s a better media market that the Shenandoah Valley. And that is why ODU is attracting FBS interest after only one year in the FCS. Either that or their AD is just outperforming Jeff Bourne. Or perhaps worst of all, maybe Bourne is doing a great job and aggressively pursuing opportunities with every FBS conference in the land and there is just zippy interest. Pick your poison. All 3 scenarios suck.<\/p>\n

What’s Next?<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is a chance that all of these rumors are baseless and nobody is leaving the CAA. I hope that’s the case. The CAA is a great league. I’ve always felt that it was better to play football rivals like William & Mary, Richmond, and lately ODU, than to chart a course for a lower tier FBS league. If a couple schools leave and set off a chain reaction though, it could mean that JMU gets trapped in a league of scraps. Or it could mean that the league implodes completely. JMU needs to get aggressive and beg, borrow, and steal its way into a FBS league. The MAC has never been high on many fans’ lists, but it might be the most attractive option right now. And if FBS leagues are slamming doors, then JMU needs to lead the CAA charge to poach other FCS leagues. Swap App State for ODU and convince at least one of VCU or GMU to stay, and the CAA will be no worse for the wear. If ODU, VCU, and GMU head for the exits though, JMU needs to jump before they get caught holding the bag.<\/p>\n

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