{"id":7591,"date":"2015-03-04T06:44:05","date_gmt":"2015-03-04T11:44:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=7591"},"modified":"2015-03-04T06:44:05","modified_gmt":"2015-03-04T11:44:05","slug":"guest-post-is-jmu-proving-bill-simmons-ewing-theory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=7591","title":{"rendered":"Guest Post: Is JMU Proving Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"nba_g_pat_ewing_580\"<\/a>Our buddy Zac (@ZPriceIsRight<\/a>) contributed some fun guest posts during football season, so we recently asked him if he’d like to submit something about hoops. Thankfully he agreed. Here’s his take on the Andre Nation-less Dukes and Bill Simmon’s famous “Ewing Theory.”<\/em><\/p>\n

For those of you who don’t read Bill Simmons, the Ewing Theory was a theory he pushed on his “The Sports Guy” column.\u00a0 More accurately, it was put forth by his friend Dave Cirilli, back in the early 90s.\u00a0 But it wasn’t put into print until Simmons ran this article in 2009<\/a>.<\/div>\n
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To prevent you from having to read two articles (although it’s a great one), the Ewing Theory came about when Cirilli noticed that Ewing’s teams would have better results when he went out with an injury \u00a0He noticed it both at Georgetown and with the Knicks.<\/div>\n
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Check the article for other classic Ewing Theory candidates, (my favorite is the 2000 Mariners), but the question I’m asking here is: are the 2014-15 Dukes a Ewing Theory candidate?<\/div>\n
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Now, before we delve into this, I should clear the air about my personal feelings towards Nation.\u00a0 I loved him, and was entirely in his corner.\u00a0 I followed him on twitter through the good and the bad, but always delighted in whatever nonsense he was tweeting.\u00a0 I hated hearing about his multiple suspensions, but usually sided with coach on the action he took.\u00a0 I was heartbroken when he left the team.\u00a0 Especially because of his strangely out of character mature(ish) response to it all.\u00a0 The fact he still shows up to support “his team” breaks my heart.\u00a0 But we all have to deal with the consequences of our actions in life, and so I hope he learns that lesson.<\/div>\n
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Having said that, I’m clearly not someone with a bone to pick with Andre.\u00a0 But I still can’t help but to look at what this team has become without him and think… wow, we really are a case of addition by subtraction.<\/div>\n

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Really, it was already there at the beginning of the season for us to see.\u00a0 The Dukes went 4-1 (with a loss to #9 UVA) winning 4 in a row when Nation was on a 5 game suspension at the beginning of the season.\u00a0 We lost the first game he came back, to #16 Ohio State. Okay, that was probably expected.\u00a0 But, looking at the games until Nation got dismissed from the team, the Dukes went 5-7 with him on the roster.<\/div>\n
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Without Nation, the Dukes finished the season 10-4 for an overall record of 14-5 without him.\u00a0 Now, you could argue that we didn’t beat anyone noteworthy without him (and really, you could argue that for the whole team on the year – we beat the teams we should have and lost the games we should have), but I’d like to look at the stretch of basketball with him.<\/div>\n
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WITH NATION:<\/div>\n
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First 3 Games:<\/div>\n
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Dukes 56 –\u00a0Ohio State<\/b> 73\u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n
Campbell 61 – Dukes<\/b> 63<\/b><\/div>\n
Richmond 46 – Dukes 51<\/b><\/div>\n
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Okay, looking good so far.\u00a0 Dukes were obviously outmatched against the Buckeyes, but won a close game against Campbell (who finished 10th in the Big South), and what looks now like an upset against the SPATTERS (suck it, Spatters), who is currently 5th in the A10, and swept VCU on the season.\u00a0 Conclusion: Dukes would destroy the Rams.<\/div>\n
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Next 3 Games:<\/div>\n
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Dukes 58 –\u00a0ECU 70<\/b><\/div>\n
Dukes<\/b>\u00a072<\/b> –\u00a0Ball State 52<\/div>\n
High Point<\/b> 80<\/b> – Dukes 71<\/div>\n
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Okay, two losses here.\u00a0 I would argue the ECU loss is the worst of the two.\u00a0 ECU is currently 7th in the AAC, with a 13-16 record.\u00a0 They have one game left. We probably should have taken care of this game.\u00a0 High Point is 22-8 and finished 1st in the Big South.\u00a0 They’re looking pretty strong.<\/div>\n
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Next 3 Games:<\/div>\n
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Norfolk State<\/b> 74<\/b> – Dukes 71 OT<\/div>\n
Valpo<\/b> 79<\/b> – Dukes 52<\/div>\n
Towson 52 – Dukes<\/b> 61<\/b><\/div>\n
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That Norfolk State loss hurts.\u00a0 Sure, they’re 2nd in the Mid-Eastern with a 18-12 record, but it’s a game we gotta win at home.\u00a0 Valpo is 1st in the Horizon with a 25-5 overall.\u00a0 They’re a good squad, and according to Rob’s recap I just read we shot like shit in that game.<\/div>\n
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Final 3 Games:<\/div>\n
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CoC 50 – Dukes 61<\/b><\/div>\n
Northeastern<\/b> 65<\/b> – Dukes 59<\/div>\n
Nerds<\/b> 81<\/b> – Dukes 73<\/div>\n
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That 2nd half versus Northeastern killed us.\u00a0 We were up 30-21 at the half, and that was a game against an “upper half” team that we could have stolen at home.\u00a0 The Nerds, well, you know.\u00a0 They kind of have our number this year and I hate them.\u00a0 But hey, it’s the nerds so they will definitely choke in the Tourney and not make the tourney.<\/div>\n
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So during that time, I count two or three games (NE at home, Norfolk State, arguably ECU) we could have won if we had been firing at all cylinders.\u00a0 Did Coach Brady see that as well?\u00a0 I don’t know.<\/div>\n
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Sure, throughout this season we are almost perfect at beating the teams we should and losing to the teams we should, but the record shows we’re a better team without Nation.<\/div>\n
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One last thought on the Ewing Theory – it doesn’t have a requirement for winning it all, just doing better without the perceived “star” player.\u00a0 So, I’m not arguing we’ll make a run through the CAA Tourney.\u00a0 I just honestly think we’re a better team without Nation.<\/div>\n
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As always, would love to hear what you have to say in the comments.\u00a0 Thanks to Rob and Todd for allowing me to share my thoughts with y’all!<\/div>\n