{"id":8547,"date":"2016-05-15T19:54:08","date_gmt":"2016-05-15T23:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8547"},"modified":"2016-05-15T19:55:17","modified_gmt":"2016-05-15T23:55:17","slug":"guest-post-ncaa-softball-bracketology","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8547","title":{"rendered":"Guest Post: NCAA Softball Bracketology"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nq9CABtmB18\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<em>Brian Hansen is our go-to guy when it comes to all things JMU and NCAA softball. Here&#8217;s his quick look at how the NCAA tournament might shakeout prior to the field being announced this evening.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>So the softball Dukes cruised through the CAA Championship and I\u2019m not sure the tournament could have gone any better for JMU. Most importantly, the Dukes went 3-0 in the tournament and avoided adding a loss to its resume. Second, the results of the tournament also broke Madison\u2019s way since they didn\u2019t end up having to play Elon, preventing them from adding another 100+ RPI game to its resume. The only thing that could have gone better is if JMU got to play Charleston twice instead of Towson since Charleston is slightly higher in the RPI than Towson, but the margins there may not be of value.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The selection show is set for this evening at 10 p.m. and will air on ESPNU and before I take my guess at how I think the selection is going to go, here is a quick breakdown of how the tournament works. The committee will select 64 teams with 32 teams receiving automatic bids and 32 at-large bids. The top 16 teams will be ranked by the committee and will host regionals. Each regional is a 4 team, double-elimination, mini tournament. The 16 teams that win the regionals advance to Super Regionals which is a best-of-three series with the winner of the #1 regional drawing the winner of the #16 regional and so forth until you get to the eight-nine matchup.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Eight teams will advance from Super Regionals to the Women\u2019s College World Series and eventually those eight teams will whittle down to two teams who will play a best-of-three series in the championship round.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The 16 Regional hosts<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So I\u2019m not going to try to predict how all 16 regionals are going to end up. Instead, I\u2019m going to start by just predicting who will be the top 16 teams that will end up hosting regionals. The key line to keep in mind here, is that the top eight seeds, if they win their regionals, will be guaranteed to host their Super Regional. JMU is, unless some true shenanigans take place, going to host a regional. The truly interesting point is whether or not they\u2019ll be at eight or higher. I think the Dukes will get there with the top 16 seeds looking like this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#1 \u2013 Florida<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#2 \u2013 Michigan<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#3 \u2013 Oklahoma<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#4 \u2013 Auburn<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#5 \u2013 Oregon<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#6 \u2013 Alabama<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#7 \u2013 James Madison<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#8 \u2013 Florida State<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#9 \u2013 Washington<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#10 \u2013 Tennessee<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#11 \u2013 LSU<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#12 \u2013 UL Lafayette<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#13 \u2013 Baylor<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#14 \u2013 UCLA<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#15 \u2013 Missouri<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#16 \u2013 Kentucky<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>So who\u2019s coming to Harrisonburg \u2026<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key here is to look at that 16 line and whether or not Kentucky edges out Fresno State and a couple other teams to get that last hosting spot. This is because if Kentucky doesn\u2019t get a hosting spot, they\u2019ll be in strong consideration to be one of the teams to travel to Harrisonburg for a regional. If the Wildcats do get hosting duties, they\u2019d be, in my opinion, the best team not to host. They are an all-around good team with a deep pitching staff, that is going to give somebody hell if they don\u2019t end up hosting. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The selection committee is also charged with trying to limit the number of teams it has to fly to its region. The travel radius for busing to a site instead of flying is about 400 miles, so it\u2019s best to start there. Based on how I have the bracket falling, there is really only one team that would be a two-seed and that fits inside that travel radius and that\u2019s South Carolina. Kentucky is just outside that travel radius at 415 miles, but JMU bused to Lexington 2 years ago, so I guess that radius can be stretched. Now, if South Carolina ends up busing to a different site that is in JMU\u2019s radius, then all bets are off and any team on the two seed could end up in Harrisonburg because they\u2019d all be flying and there is no discernable difference to the NCAA between flying in, say, Texas A&amp;M and Notre Dame. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The three seed has a few more options in the same travel radius, but the one that makes the most sense to me is North Carolina. JMU didn\u2019t play them this year (unlike two other options) after having the doubleheader rained out and they fit in perfectly in the travel radius.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The four seed is a crap shoot with Longwood, USC Upstate, Princeton and maybe St. Joseph\u2019s (if they win the Atlantic Championship game today, all fitting inside the radius. My guess is it\u2019ll be Longwood, but I also would have said that last year when Fordham came to JMU. My thought is the Harrisonburg Regional will look like this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">#7 James Madison<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Carolina<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">North Carolina<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Longwood<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other possibilities at two include Kentucky if they slide to a two seed. Georgia would really be stretching the travel radius. Ohio State, Virginia Tech already played JMU, but could also end up as the three seed along with Louisville if they get in and the committee doesn\u2019t mind stretching the radius some more. The four seed makes the most sense if it is Longwood, but some of the previously mentioned alternatives exist along with Miami (OH), Fordham and Army depending on who wins the Patriot and Atlantic 10.<\/span><\/p>\n<iframe src=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fjmusportsblog.com%2F%3Fp%3D8547&amp;layout=standard&amp;show_faces=true&amp;width=450&amp;action=like&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;height=80\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"border:none; overflow:hidden; width:450px; height:80px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\"><\/iframe>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brian Hansen is our go-to guy when it comes to all things JMU and NCAA softball. Here&#8217;s his quick look at how the NCAA tournament might shakeout prior to the field being announced this evening.\u00a0 So the softball Dukes cruised through the CAA Championship and I\u2019m not sure the tournament could have gone any better [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8530,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8530","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":0},"title":"Guest Post: CAA Softball Tourney Preview","date":"May 10, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Brian Hansen is back with another guest post about JMU's juggernaut of a softball program. The ladies finished the regular season 43-4. Here Brian breaks down phase 1 of the postseason, the CAA tourney.\u00a0 At the start of this season, I wrote about how I thought this could be a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"softball walk off","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/7687840_G.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7695,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=7695","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":1},"title":"Guest Post: CAA Softball Awards and Tourney Preview","date":"May 5, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"We here at JMUSB are fully on the JMU softball bandwagon. Obviously, there are people out there who know way more about the sport than we do. One of those people is @BHansen40, who thankfully reached out to us and offered to do a guest post. Hope you all enjoy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"Megan-Wood-988x556","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Megan-Wood-988x556.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8545,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8545","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":2},"title":"JMU Softball Won the CAA Championship, Because Of Course It Did","date":"May 13, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Just because something is expected, doesn't mean it's any less important or awesome. The heavily favored JMU Dukes softball team took down Towson 8-0 to capture the 2016 CAA Championship. Jailyn Ford was once again lights out from the circle. The senior surrendered only one hit and racked up 11\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8354,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8354","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":3},"title":"Guest Post: JMU Softball Preview","date":"February 10, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Head coach Mickey Dean has quietly built JMU softball into a bit of a juggernaut. We're far from experts on college softball, but thankfully Brian Hansen is. He put together this outstanding preview and offered to let us run it. We hope you enjoy it.\u00a0 As hard as it is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"Softball Celebration","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/3753794_G.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8496,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=8496","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":4},"title":"Around the Horn With JMU Spring Sports","date":"April 24, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The school year is winding down and most Spring sports have hit their stretch run. Here's a couple quick links to catch you up before you blink and it's all over. The softball team can't be stopped. Well, except by the Rocky Mount Fire that is. Mickey Dean and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7711,"url":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/?p=7711","url_meta":{"origin":8547,"position":5},"title":"Guest Post: Harrisonburg Regional Preview","date":"May 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a guest post by NCAA softball expert @BHansen40. In it he breaks down JMU's opponents in the opening round of the NCAA Softball College World Series. The postseason is coming to Harrisonburg this week as the NCAA selection committee rewarded JMU with an NCAA regional, despite coming up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;JMU Sports&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"Veterans Memorial Park","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/jmusportsblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/CE6vwStUMAAKy31-1024x768.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8547"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8547"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8547\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8549,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8547\/revisions\/8549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jmusportsblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}