You Cannot Spell NCAA Without CAA
The VCU Rams defeat of the Kansas Jayhawks might have shocked the world, but it just proved what many of us have been screaming all season, the CAA is a damn good baskeball league. There isn’t much we can say on the topic that hasn’t been said already, but here are 5 quick thoughts on VCU’s run to the Final Four.
1. JMU Beat a Final Four Team This Season
The Dukes defeated VCU in Richmond about a month ago, so yes, they beat a Final Four team. It shows that when at their best this season, JMU could definitely run with the big boys. Of course that might make the inconsistency and the losses to W&M and Georgia State even more frustrating. Still, this is the first time JMU can ever say that it beat a Final Four team, so let’s be proud of it.
2. Jay Bilas, Hubert Davis, et al Can Shove It
I’ve heard a lot of people say that the fact that VCU won games in the tournament doesn’t mean that it deserved to get a bid. I guess you could logically say that the there is no correlation between the two and VCU still hasn’t validated its selection. I wouldn’t, but you could. I still say Bilas, Davis, and everyone else who ranted against VCU’s selection can get bent. Watch the league before you attempt to comment on it fellas.
Prior to today’s win, I also heard other people try to discredit VCU’s run. Their argument was that USC was bad, Georgetown didn’t count because they were beat up, and FSU isn’t anything special basketball-wise. So essentially they were saying that VCU’s run isn’t extraordinary because they were better than the teams they beat. And these same people claim VCU didn’t deserve a bid. Does not compute.
3. The CAA Just Got a Whole Lot Better
Readers of this blog know that the CAA is a great league. It’s about to get much better though. The level of play in the league improved since GMU’s Final Four run in 2006. Now that VCU proved that it’s possible for another CAA team to do it, it’s going to give every team in the league the chance to improve recruiting and out of conference scheduling. In addition to giving the league greater credibility, VCU’s run brings financial rewards to the CAA. Each team gets a cut of the millions VCU has earned. With a few more strong showings in March by CAA teams, the league could see an uptick in tv revenue. All this money will help close the gap with the power programs. VCU made its run after spending $2.3 million on hoops this season. The Kansas team they beat spent $10.9 million. That’s a huge difference. Calipari probably spends more that $2.3 million paying folks to take his recruits’ SATs.
4. This Is Awesome for Mason Haters
VCU’s run isn’t over and you’d have to be crazy at this point to assume the Rams can’t win this whole damn thing. Even if it ends here though it at least means that Mason isn’t the only CAA team to make a Final Four. That’s like a gift from heaven for Mason haters (guilty as charged) who are sick of hearing Mason fans crow about the 2006 team. Maybe by the time JMU makes a Final Four it will be a cliche.
5. Congrats to all VCU Players, Coaches, and Fans
I wish it was JMU, but I’m thrilled for everyone associated with VCU and the rest of the CAA. Good luck. Now go win 2 more!
I’m not going to get bent on guys giving their opinion. Bilas is as good as it gets. He’s logical and makes sense, and he does watch CAA basketball and all the other mid-majors. His points were very good about VCU during selection Sunday. There’s no reason to “get bent” on him. No one saw this happening, and I don’t expect every talking head to be correct all the time.
Completely disagree. Bilas, Davis and the rest of those guys are entitled to their opinion, but they were woefully ignorant on selection Sunday. Bilas claimed that nobody even had VCU in mock-brackets and that simply wasn’t true. Sports Illustrated and Jerry Palm both did and those are just the first 2 I thought of off the top of my head. Hubert Davis said, and I quote, “I haven’t looked at their their numbers. I haven’t looked at their RPI numbers, strength of schedule numbers.” and then claimed VCU didn’t deserve a bid. Digger Phelps then went on to say that VCU and mid-majors were gaming the system with their scheduling and “I really think it hurts the major conferences.” That’s just foolish.
I don’t expect any of the talking heads to be right every time or even most of the time. In my opinion they went overboard with their criticism of VCU though simply because they weren’t a big name program. They made the argument VCU vs Tech. I think there were legit arguments for both schools, but Bilas acted like VCU had no business being there, despite the fact that they had a better RPI (like it or not, the committee says they use it), a better record away from home, and the same record against the top 100. Ranting and raving like he did, instead of simply stating his argument for Tech and moving on, goes beyond simply being wrong and instead made it a little something more. Just my opinion though.
Well this NCAA tourney has made it clear that it is impossible to predict. Can you blame the talking heads on espn and such? Look at every sport really, 6 seeds winning the super bowl on a regular basis, non 1 seeds winning the ncaa tourney, ext, talking heads dont predict much better then us on the couch.
I did not think VCU deserved to get in, but wow what a run. I think their run is impressive period, but think getting usc then a worthless gtown (I did not pick them to win in any bracket) and fsu (who NIT bound VT beat twice) helped them out a bit. I think Mason’s run was better considering who they beat a few years ago.
Hats off to them though, good luck vs Butler. What a coaching match up that will be. I love watching the vcu offense, which I think is very close to what uconn runs, with double screens on the perimeter then either a 3 pt shot or a drive to the lane.
Its much easier to look back at these selections and say they deserved or didn’t based on their performance in the Tourney so I think we have to all take the predictions with a grain of salt. Even as much of a fan of CAA that I am, and while I think VCU is a good program, I think that they probably didn’t really deserve the spot based on their finish. However given the fact that JMU beat them I think probably has influenced this opinion. In general though, it doesn’t surprise me that in the recent years that quote-unquote mid majors are doing well. The typically have more experience teams because the players, while good, are not NBA-level talent and trying to leave after 1 or 2 years for the pros. The 2006 GMU team was a good example, as is VCU, ODU, and GMU this year. Butler and others are good examples too. The Big East was good, but many of their teams have blue-chips and higher turnover so when it comes to chemistry and post-season experience they are maybe not as good in the crunch as the mid-majors with Seniors and Juniors leading the way. Just my casual observation though.
I’m not saying VCU was a tourney lock or that anyone could have seen this coming. I simply think that no matter how you look at it, the “last four in/last four out” debate is going to result in questionable schools getting into the tournament. If they had bulletproof resumes they wouldn’t have been on the bubble. VCU was one of those teams. The way the talking heads went on and on about them not being deserving was over the top in my opinion. Better to just recognize that there is legitimate debate about the last few bids every year and move on. Ranting and raving about it like they did was unnecessary, especially when some of them clearly didn’t have substantial facts to base their opinions on.
I would say this is why people were piling on VCU – the numbers and such didnt say they could do much of anything:
While I was sitting in the Prudential Center watching Kentucky-North Carolina, I e-mailed Ken Pomeroy, Mr. Tempo-Free, to ask if he had a snapshot of his adjusted efficiency rankings from just before the tournament began. I wanted to see where VCU actually stood, and the spreadsheet Pomeroy sent back was amazing — well, as much as a spreadsheet can be. I’ve long been of the belief that there’s such a thing as a “Final Four Statistical Profile,” mainly because no Final Four team in the previous seven years kenpom.com has been charting stats has finished outside the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and — more importantly — outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency. And yet, let’s present the pre-tournament profile of VCU:
• The Rams ranked 84th in overall efficiency according to kenpom’s Pythagorean formula. The five teams just ahead of them, in ascending order, were Iowa (11-20 record), College of Charleston (NIT), Missouri State (NIT), Marshall (CIT) and Indiana (12-20).
• The Rams’ offense was OK, at 59th overall, but their defense was atrocious, ranking 143rd, allowing an adjusted 1.008 PPP. The five teams just ahead of them in the ADE standings were Mississippi (NIT), Oregon State (11-20), Fresno State (14-17), Northern Colorado (a No. 15 seed) and Northwestern (NIT). And yet … VCU went out and shut down Kansas in a more forceful fashion than anyone but Texas did all season.
How does this happen? You’d like to say you saw the Rams coming, but there were no statistical indicators for this Final Four run. They’re playing out of their minds. Clearly, the formula of “NIT Efficiency Profile + Hyperswag = Overnight Juggernaut” needs to be considered for future pre-tournament evaluations.
http://tourney.si.com/2011/03/28/final-four-first-look-the-unbelievables/?eref=sihp – Luke is rather good with numbers and a good read IMO
That’s really cool Matt. Thanks for posting it. I think you and I actually have more common ground than it might appear. I do not think anyone could have seen this coming and do not blame anyone for not predicting it. It’s a definite outlier. I’m not even saying that I would have been outraged if VCU didn’t get a bid. I just was bothered by the way many people ranted about VCU’s bid on selection Sunday, instead of just accepting that there were probably 5 or 6 teams that also had borderline resumes on both sides of the bubble.
I thought VA Tech was going to get a bid. I don’t think VCU was the only team that they could have been selected over so it upset me when that’s what the argument came down to for some people. Like you, I was also not impressed by a Georgetown team that stumbled to the finish line. It bothered me that the Hoyas’ bid was never questioned and VCU’s was so hotly contested. I judged that to be a due to a big conference bias by the talking heads. Admittedly, I am probably hyper-sensitive to perceived mid-major subs, so maybe I was reading too much into things though.
In any case, I appreciate your comments and thanks for taking the time to make a clear argument based on facts. The fact that Bilas, Davis, etc did not, was what got me upset in the first place.
I had the exact same opinion Bilas and Davis had. Digger sucks, so i won’t even recognize him. He is Mr. Big Conference. I was following all of the bubble talk and looking at all the options before the selection. VCU appeared in very few “mock brackets”. The main reason was because of how they finished. Remember, they almost lost the first round of the CAA. It’s hard to make the NCAA when you finish 4th in your mid-major conference, the 3rd place team doesn’t get in, and you lose 5 of your last 8. Their points were valid. VCU’s run is incredible, though. So, I don’t fault either.
OK. I’m clearly struggling to make my point here, but I’m going to try one last time. I think VCU’s run was unpredictable. I understand that there were legit arguments to be made for leaving them out in favor of another team. My problem was the arrogance with which Bilas, Davis and the talking heads expresssed themselves on Selection Sunday. It would have been more professional to state their case using facts, instead of relying on cheap shots and cliches. However, when Bilas said things like “I’m not saying I don’t care how these kids feel, but I don’t care how these kids feel. … We talk about the eye test, this one fails the laugh test.”, which he actually said, it ceased to be a rational argument in my mind and instead became an emotional rant and a grab for attention. That was my problem. Not that Bilas or anyone else thought VCU didn’t deserve a bid, but the fact that he seemed unable to make his case professionally.
I shouldn’t have stooped so low as to say Bilas or the other guys should get bent however. VCU’s run somewhat seems more special to me as a mid-major fan because they were so beaten up by the talking heads. There are better ways to express that, and I should have tried harder to do so.
Teams like VT should just win more games and stop crying, I was not too mad at other teams not getting in but more mad at the bad losses we had.
To win in ncaa bball you need to be 1) good 2) consistent and 3) lucky
VT has never ever been number 2
VCU is right now – kansas/duke and the likes have not been the past week
I agree with the formula for NCAA success Matt.
And since as a mid-major fan, I see bias even when it’s not there, I’ll share this little theory with you. I think VT has suffered in recent years because its perceived to be a football school. VCU discussion aside, I think if a more traditional hoops power had the exact same resume as the Hokies, they would have been in no problem. They wouldn’t have been on the bubble to begin with.
Again, as a mid-major fan I’m sort of conditioned to perceive somethings as slights, even when they’re not. That’s my theory with the Hokies though.
Rob, I totally agree with your second to last post. I’m guessing that they weren’t prepared for VCU to be picked, so they didn’t do their homework and went with what was on top of their mind. Next time, they’ll be prepared, I hope. Bilas is normally really good. Davis and Digger are just along for the ride. I don’t see them watching game tape and breaking it down.
This sums it all up for VCU the best: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/03/28/vcu.improbable.run/index.html?eref=sihp
Yeah, no matter how you look it, VCU has had a pretty amazing and unexpected run. In January and February, I thought they were the best team in the CAA. Then they went down the tubes, before playing great again in the conference tourney. I never saw this run coming though.
Anyway, I love it when folks chime in on the blog to express their opinions, especially when they disagree with me and remind me to examine my own assumptions. When it’s guys like Matt and Tedward, who are close to me in real life, it’s even more fun. Thanks guys!
I’m about as big a math nerd as you can get, so I appreciate the stats, but I think it pretty much boils down to this. VCU caught a break by getting a spot, they got railed by ESPN, and they got p*ssed. Shaka said f ESPN, and has basically told them they HAVE to play twice as hard on D on every possession, which they have, and they’ve outworked and dominated more talented teams. Yes they have made shots, especially 3s, but that’s what confidence can do. Hoops is a sport where effort on D & the boards can make all the difference in the world, and they are riding the adrenaline rush and using the ESPN chip on their shoulder to kick everybody’s *ss. I hope they don’t run out of gas or lose their shooting touch, which they might, but if they play the next 2 like the last 5, they will win it all.