JMU at Louisville Preview

The Basics

Matchup: JMU Dukes (1-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Louisville Cardinals (1-0, 0-0 ACC)

Kickoff: 7 p.m., L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky

Weather: Mostly cloudy, 79, slight chance of storms (weather delay not out of the question)

Broadcast: ESPN2

Boys in the Desert: JMU +13.5

How We Got Here

Both teams manhandled FCS foes in Week 1. But from a broader perspective, both programs have transformed quite a bit from the 2022 matchup in seemingly positive directions on each side. That 2022 JMU team was the surprise FBS newcomer – plucky, some young talent, but largely still an elite FCS team without a great deal of depth. This was most notable as an injured Todd Centeio basically couldn’t throw that night but was still required to be out there for the offense to operate with any kind of efficiency. This Dukes team is now a full-fledged FBS team on nearly every front for the first time and an evolving G6 power. Louisville was still coached by Scott Satterfield and was still the same mid ACC team they had been for years. While hoops may always be first in the hearts of Cards fans (you’re welcome for Terrance Edwards by the way), under Jeff Brohm, UL and its administration have made an obvious commitment to level up. In case you haven’t noticed, the ACC has essentially become divided into an “committed to being like the P2” teams and “still stuck in Greensboro” teams. Along with Clemson, Florida St., Miami, and SMU, the Cards are clearly in the first group while, notably, the teams JMU has knocked off the last two years are still wondering where the Raycom/Jefferson Pilot guys went.

Three Things to Know About Louisville

This is the best team JMU has played in years – As noted above, UL has chosen to build a program that is super-league ready should that second seismic shift happen at the end of the decade. And make no mistake, while “Louisville” isn’t a “helmet” team with the tradition of even some current conference mates, this team is a large step above the UVA and UNC teams the Dukes have knocked off lately. Those teams had elite talent in spots (i.e. Omarrion Hampton), but they were atrociously coached and generally not serious about winning. This team is built with a modern NIL/General Manager structure, real financial backing, and is developing a legitimate identity of its own under native son Brohm.

QB is the Big Name, but RB is the real star – USC transfer Miller Moss is the headline name for UL this year, but RB Isaac Brown is the real reason the Cards are considered contenders in the ACC and playoff race this year. The brothers Brohm (head coach and OC) are former QB’s and they love to sling it, but they’re also smart enough to realize what a talent they have in Brown. More to come on this, but one of the keys to this game for them seems to be trying to bully the Dukes with the running game.

Sun Belt Stars – Yes, that’s former South Alabama receiver and returner Caullin Lacy all over the field for Louisville. Lacy almost singlehandedly kept South Al in the game with the Dukes in 2023. That game was an almost signature exhibit in the long line of JMU’s former staff’s “turtling” games where conservatism with a lead almost bit them, but Lacy was the star. He seems likely to play a huge role again a few years later, but at least we know Ches and co. likely won’t take their foot off the gas no matter the game situation. And on defense, one of their best players is D-Lineman Clev Lubin, who just arrived from Coastal. Unlike Lacy, Lubin didn’t do a darned thing against JMU last year as the Dukes continued to beat the Chants like a rented mule the same way they have since joining the SBC.

How JMU Can Win

Shootout! Of course we could be horribly wrong (and the weather could factor in), but a slightly less insane version of last year’s game in Chapel Hill seems like the most legitimate road to a dub here. Almost all of the Cards’ questions are on their defense, and in particular in the back end. And JMU’s offense seems as capable and explosive as any ACC team. On the other side, Louisville seems likely to get a few no matter how well the Dukes play on D as their skill guys are exceptional. But we’ll take Barnett in a heartbeat over Moss if things get sloppy given Moss’ tendency to throw it to anyone wearing a helmet on either side.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

It’s Kentucky – you know what’s coming. With a special shoutout to our friend Chris, this is clearly a week that calls for the best beer of all: bourbon! So many options to choose from in this part of the world and we’re not looking to start an argument with any of our bourbon-crazed friends, so we’ll go with something that’s still in the realm of attainability in basically anything from Old Fitzgerald. The standard 7 year will do you right during the game, but should the Dukes pull this off, something from their decanter series (the 11 is ridiculous even if the 17 is out of reach) would be quite the way to celebrate.

Official JMUSB Prediction

Honestly, the hardest one to figure in quite some time. Can’t remember a game since at least the 2016 trip to Fargo (and maybe SMU the year before) where we think the Dukes have both a legitimate chance to win and legitimate chance to get blown out.

Louisville folks suggest they’ve really struggled with running QB’s which could lead us to believe we could see slightly more Sluka. But given the Cards offensive prowess, it just seems tough to see the JMU staff thinking they can do the “shrink the game, try to win a close one” strategy. Plus we know Chesney, Canan, and co’s track record in these “big” games at both Holy Cross and JMU. They’ve been scheming for months on this one and this isn’t the week to leave those things uncalled. Our guess is this is a wild one. And our next guess is most things the Dukes have come up with work! But we also don’t see the Cards contributing to their own demise in the way the uncoached Mack Brown team did last year. In other words, this one’s gonna be nuts. Give us an absolute shootout with a late turnover (maybe a Gobaira tip leading to a Barksdale INT) proving the difference!

JMU 37, Louisville 35