JMU vs William & Mary in Round 1

March is here and it’s finally tournament time. Our 6th seeded JMU Dukes will play the 11th seed William & Mary Tribe in the late game Friday night. It’s a game that JMU should win, but it’s definitely not an easy match-up. William & Mary already proved they can defeat the Dukes when they upset JMU in the ‘Burg last month. And while the Tribe has never won the tournament or been to the Big Dance, they’ve had a couple decent runs in recent CAA tournaments, reaching the finals in 2 of the last 3 years. The Dukes on the other hand, last went dancing all the way back in 1994 and haven’t made a CAA tournament final since 1997.

Fun With Stats

The Dukes own an edge on the glass, grabbing 31.8% of all available rebounds on the offensive end, compared with only 25.2% for the Tribe. They also are better at getting to the free throw line, with a 3.1% advantage in free throw rate. The fact that JMU grabs more offensive boards than W&M means that they get more second chances and easy buckets. The higher free throw rate means that JMU get more chances to score from the line. The end result is that the numbers show us that JMU is a more efficient offensive basketball team, scoring 1.07 points per possession compared to only 1.01 for William & Mary. Translation, JMU has an easier time scoring than William & Mary. We knew this, but it’s nice that the numbers prove it.

What William & Mary Wants to Do

Shoot threes and hit the glass hard. That was the formula the Tribe used to beat the Dukes last month. They outrebounded JMU and then took advantage of some shaky perimeter defense to shoot lights out from long range. It’s not magic. It’s pretty much the book on beating JMU. It’s exactly what I expect Tony Shaver to have his team do.

What JMU Wants to Do

Extend the defense and pound it in the paint offensively. Poor perimeter defense has been the Dukes’ achilles heel all season. It absolutely killed them in the loss to William & Mary. JMU couldn’t cover the guys beyond the three point line which resulted in the Tribe hitting 50% from long range. When the Tribe wasn’t bombing away from 3 point land, they were taking advantage of bad help D and late slides to create back door layups and easy buckets. JMU needs to extend the defensive pressure to prevent the Tribe shooters from spotting up for open jumpers. Then on offensive they’ll need to get shots in the paint. Denzel only got 10 shots the last time these teams faced off. We’ve said the same thing all season. Feed the big man. Assuming they can rebound better than they did last time against the Tribe, getting shots in the paint should lead to some easy put backs and at the same time open it up for Julius and Humpty to hit jumpers.

Prediction

If not for a furious rally in the end of the first game between these two teams, the Tribe would have swept the season series with JMU. I think Coach Brady uses that to his advantage this week and gets the team to focus. Coming off the big win at VCU last week, the Dukes should also be riding a wave of confidence. JMU is a better team than William & Mary and I think they finally play like it on Friday. JMU 77 – W&M 69.