UMass Minutemen: 2011 JMUSB CAA Football Preview #8

Big East not the only one abandoning all geographic good sense

UMass’ announced defection to the FBS’ MAC in 2012 is one of the major storylines in the conference and will have both good and bad ramifications for the 2011 Dukes and their CAA brethren. 

The Good

UMass should be extremely strong this year, but they are ineligible for both the CAA title and the FCS Playoffs now that they’ve announced their move to the FBS.  They are playing an oddly “nationally” televised game against Holy Cross on the Thursday before most of college football kicks off to start the season which should be a big blowout and another chance to showcase the CAA (plus a great chance to starting getting used to all the weeknight games they’ll play in the cash-grubbing MAC).  They’ll also be taking on rival UNH at Gillette Stadium again in the Colonial Clash which has the makings of a great tradition (if it continues after the UMass defection).

The Bad

UMass is going to be damn good and could really muck up the CAA race.  If the Minutemen finish in the top three or four of the conference, an extra playoff berth for any conference teams ranked behind them could be extremely hard to come by, potentially hurting not only that specific team, but the CAA as a whole.  Unfortunately, there’s just no way around this.

The other thing that scares the crap out of us is that UMass hosts the Dukes in the final game of the season.  With no playoffs on tap, this will be not only senior night, but the super bowl of sorts for the Minutemen.  The Dukes would be best served if UMass is struggling and cashing out by this point, but with all the talent they have on hand, this seems unlikely.

The Outlook

UMass returns 15 starters (6 off, 9 def) plus two new FBS transfers on offense.  Pluse they return star linebacker and team leader Tyler Holmes to head that veteran defense.  On offense, they return the best of all the Northeastern transfers from last year in RB Jonathan Hernandez, who has been near impossible to stop at both schools.  Needless to say, an influx of talent in the freshman class after the FBS announcement could be a blessing or a curse, depending on how many of them are redshirted.  If most are held back for next year, could be an awful thin bench in the event of injuries.  To take the rampant, uninformed speculation even further, we’d have to guess interest in the program on-campus and among alums would spike a bit this year in anticipation of “bigger” things to come (yes, we’re mocking the MAC and hoping against hope JMU doesn’t make a similar low-budget move anytime soon).  We fully expect the Minutemen to be a 7-9 win team challenging for the top of the standings, if not the official recognition as conference champs and we can only hope the Dukes finish at least one line above them in the final table so as to not further complicate any playoff decisions.