2013 JMUSB Men’s CAA Tourney Preview (Warning: Contains Hope!)

Here at JMUSB we’re more excited about the Dukes chances headed into this weekend’s CAA Tourney than any time in the last decade.  By a country mile.  Of course, every eligible team (except Hofstra, but “go Flying Dutchmen!” – we’d love to see you in the second round) likely shares that excitement.

The Soul-Crushing Possibility

Let’s just address the thing that would be the Dukesiest, Bradiest, Dillardest, Keenerest, Bournest outcome this weekend.  Something that we’ve seen over and over (and over) the last twenty years.  JMU could easily be one and done by losing to William & Mary.  Likely missing countless free throws, letting Thornton take over again, having bigs get into foul trouble with lazy, disrespectful defense on Rusthoven (Beasthoven), and being outcoached down the stretch.  Honestly, if you’re W&M or Delaware and you avoided the NU/GMU/Drex bloodbath side of the bracket, you’re dancing you’re little jig the same way we are right now and writing very similar things.  If you’re wondering, go check out Gheorghe the Blog (WM supporters usually but also have a cool tribute to UD senior badass Elena DellaDonne) or gohens.net and see exactly what we mean.

Even our homer-heavy prediction contest only has 8 folks picking the Dukes, with plenty going with NU or UD and even a WM from the aforementioned Gheorghe The Blog folks.  We’ve all just been conditioned to whimpering exits from Richmond and the setup this year could portend even deeper despair.  But that setup!  Oh, that setup!

The Road is Short and Smooth

Seriously, everything, and we mean everything, has fallen into place for the Dukes to make a serious run at this bid.  First, a quick refresher on why only seven teams are playing this weekend.  VCU smartly left the conferecne they would have otherwise made a mockery of.  ODU and fake GSU are on their way out and thus ineligible under CAA rules (which we can only hope JMU will be violating soon).  And finally, UNCW and Towson are on postseason probation due to the same APR issues that are keeping UConn out of the Big East tourney.  The important note here is that Towson, with likely CAA POY Jerelle Benimon, and GSU, with likely CAA ROY RJ Hunter, really played JMU better than anyone this year.

On the other hand, JMU swept BOTH W&M and likely semis opponent Delaware this year.  They split with Drexel (though Drexel has been getting better and healthier lately) and played top seed Northeastern tough in Boston in their only matchup.  The Dukes were swept by Mason, but the Patriots have a really tough draw in Drexel (one of the only teams with the manpower to clamp down on GMCC’s all-everything Sherrod Wright).  In general, every team in this thing has a matchup or two that scares the crap out of them just based on personnel.  For the Dukes, those teams are Drexel and Mason, but by the time JMU takes the floor Saturday night, one of them will already be on the bus home.  Good times.

Another quick note on Delaware.  While they carry the highest RPI/BPI rankings and have a tough threesome of Saddler, Threatt, and Hagins, the Dukes are actually their hideous matchup.  Goins has been able to pile up fouls on Hagins inside while Moore’s toughness and quickness matchup well with Saddler.  While JMU really needs Devon Moore on the floor, they’re surprisingly one of the deeper teams in the CAA this year and sloppy games with high foul counts have often played in their favor.

What The Dukes Have to Do

Honestly, JMU’s toughest opponent this weekend is itself.  The Dukes have shown they are capable of beating all the potential opponents (well not really Mason, but again we don’t like their odds or mediocre coaching as sweet as it would be to have an old-school southern bias, all VA final).  The keys are really to break the frustratingly habitual slow starts, defend without stupid fouls (especially Devon Moore who HAS to be on the floor), and occasionally slow down and run the offense through Rayshawn Goins when the game is tight.  Oh yeah, and there is no bigger question in the entire conference than which AJ Davis shows up.  If it’s anything like the AJ who singlehandedly beat the pantless Griffins from W&M last weekend, we love the Dukes’ chances.

Beer of the Weekse

We’re breaking out our football tradition for the tourney.  With this being a budget tourney in a budget building, and of course with the hopes of needing “champagne” to celebrate on Monday, we seriously considered going with the ole’ Lady in the Moon High Life, but we’re just too old to even fake it.  Plus it’s gonna take something big to break the curse of the Lefthander, so we’re going with Firestone Walker Double Jack Imperial IPA.  You’ll be hard pressed to find another huge (9.5%) double that both hides it’s ABV and is widely available year-round.

Official JMUSB Prediction

Just so we have an entry in our bracket:

Game 1 – Drexel over GMU

Game 2 – Delaware over Hofstra

Game 3 – JMU over WM

Game 4 – Northeastern over Drexel

Game 5 – JMU over Delaware

Game 6 – JMU 61, Northeastern 60 with Andre Nation playing the Kent Culuko role!  Devon Moore wins Tourney MVP.  See you in Dayton!