Study Shows FCS Schools Struggle in Transition to FBS
As reported by Black Mountain News, a recent NCAA study highlights the struggles many FCS teams have had after transitioning to FBS. The study tracked 19 schools that made the move up between 1978 and 2010. The main takeaway from it seems to be that it’s harder to win in FBS. Well, duh. Of course it’s more difficult to win when playing at a higher level.
Below are a couple of the key findings of the study, along with my thoughts on each.
- Football teams’ average winning percentage fell almost 11 points, from 55.7 to 44.8 after the move up. – Not surprising and definitely not encouraging.
- The percentage of winning seasons dropped from 64.4 to 37.2 – So the majority of the time these schools were on the good side of .500 in FCS, but then things pretty much flipped around after a jump? Not good.
- 6 of the 19 schools tracked, actually had a higher overall winning percentage and a higher percentage of winning seasons after making the jump – So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Yes, and the odds actually aren’t insurmountable.
- Almost 90% of all NCAA Championships are won by teams from automatic qualifying conferences – I suppose I would find this more interesting (or even relevant) if an FCS team was trying to choose between moving up to join a AQ conference or a non-AQ conference. It’s hard to beat LSU, Bama, etc. Thanks for sharing people who did the study.
- FCS schools in the top quartile sponsor an average of 23.6 teams, while bottom quartile FBS teams only sponsor an average of 16.8. – JMU already sponsors the minimum of teams for a DI program, and would probably need to add a women’s team to account for the increased number of football scholarships related to a move up.
- Student fees were increased by an average of $1.2 million dollars after making the move to FBS. – This might sound worse than it actually is. For JMU that would be around 70 bucks a student. JMU’s fees are already on the high end though.
What Does It All Mean for JMU?
It depends on your perspective. I’ve tried to avoid writing about or discussing conference realignment much, because I find it sort of a fruitless exercise. I understand and appreciate why some fans are so passionate about it, but I find it extremely frustrating when some of their arguments seem to favor emotion over logic. A lot of people will see what they want to see in this anyway. Some folks will take it as proof JMU should sit tight, while others probably think JMU has what it takes to be like the 6 programs who bucked the general trend.
While I personally think JMU should and will make a move eventually, this study reinforces my belief that it’s a much riskier decision than many fans believe it is. And screaming and calling for people’s heads, isn’t going to make things go any faster. A move up to FBS is going to cost money and history shows us that it could very well lead to some tough times on the field. JMU has a number of attributes that could help it beat the odds and actually succeed in FBS, if the right fit is found. Maybe I’m naive, but I honestly believe the administration is carefully trying to find that fit and not just sitting on their asses watching other schools go.
Again, I think JMU will eventually make the move to FBS. It probably won’t happen immediately, but I’m not pressing the panic button just yet. As fans, we might all sleep a little easier if we accept that the powers that be have more information about realignment than we do, and trust that they’re trying to do what is best for JMU. Assuming incompetence isn’t going to ease your pain.
So if you want to freak out, make up a bunch of rumors to keep the conversation going, and call for Jeff Bourne’s head, have at it. I’m not going to stop you. Life is too short for me to get all worked up about something that is 100% beyond my control though. I’d prefer to let others do their jobs, while I enjoy this upcoming football season. A move to FBS is a big decision that comes with a lot of risk. But something tells me that with an uptick in enthusiasm and support for the program, it will seem a whole lot less risky to the administration. They didn’t build new Bridgeforth because fans bitched about old Bridgeforth and stayed away in droves. They built it because people packed the tiny old stadium and made it seem like a no-brainer to expand.
This is a really, really good and thought-provoking post. Bravo.
We should just keep playing the Rhode Island’s of the world and then we’ll always win.
You’ll never get anything worthwhile in life while being scared.
Thanks 2004 Duke.
Bob, that sort of comment is exactly why I find realignment talk frustrating. I’m certainly not scared of a move up and don’t think I wrote anything to imply that I am. I just think it’s important for JMU to prepare appropriately and find the right conference. Playing URI might not excite some folks, but then again finishing below .500 to a bunch of lower tiered directional universities in FBS probably won’t either. I’d rather JMU make a good decision in a year or two, than rush to make a move. That’s all.
Great post. Just seems like we’ve lost out on the best available welcoming FBS conferences to other FCS schools that took the plunge as early adopters. While it may take some time to get comfortable with the idea and find the right fit, it looks like the decision has been made for us. And that’s the troubling trend of JMU’s athletics-oriented decision making (Bourne’s botched bid, Brady’s twisting in wind this Spring, MM’s coaching shakeups, etc). ODU’s quick rise, domination, and jump really impressed me and makes me wonder why we can’t also “aim high”. On a positive note, this blog friggin rocks – Best source of JMU sports analysis ever!
I agree with DukeSky, why shouldn’t we “aim high” and try to do it right so we can put a competitive product on the field and be competitive. I hate to say it, but I bet ODU will do it right. As to Rob’s point, as frustratingly slow as it’s been I think we are preparing appropriately and searching for the right conference… 2 to 4 years ago people were saying “lets wait and be sure we make the right move at the right time and not jump to FBS too soon” I think the time is now and it’s only going to get harder if we keep waiting.
A++ read. Now if only the rest of the people on the boards saw it this way…
It’s better to be a big fish in a small pond than a small fish in a big pond. JMU gets fans to games because we win games (sometimes) not because we are playing “North East Texas State” in D-1.
Obviously if we are going to suck it would be better to suck at the FBS level.
I think this is one of the main concerns giving the decision-makers pause. Absolutely, without a doubt, playing football at the FCS level would be more expensive. What we don’t know for sure is something I expect the bean-counters have gamed: what happens to the athletic department’s cashflow if the team suffers through several 4-7 or 3-8 seasons at the FCS level? The first year, the attendance hit might not be too bad, but in the second year? The third? It’s possible to think that with Mickey’s recruiting, our history, new BFS, and other factors we shouldn’t see two bad seasons in a row in FCS, but in a move to FBS some of these positive factors are reduced. With increased competition and the need to revise how the team recruits, it’s possible to see several years of poor records before we hopefully get our bearings and start winning again. But the increased FBS costs will still be there, leaving a reduced financial margin for error.
None of that is to say we shouldn’t move, just to say that it’s not a no-brainer kind of decision.
I think I need to talk about the elephant in the room. I think we all KNOW this, but maybe don’t want to ADMIT it. There is only SO much football talent. Period. The larger, established programs that have the ability to hire the Nick Saben’s etc will ALWAYS have talent and draw such talent. Sure, things can go one way or the other in a season and maybe Bama has a “down” year win 2 losses total and doesn’t make the NCG, but still, it will rebound the next year. However if EVERY school wants to go up to the “top” level, then of course you are going to have some amount of problems with lack of talent (or depth in many cases) at the lower end of the top tier and some schools will just never have a chance. ODU, App State, and others will NEVER have a chance. EVER. EVER. EVER. I remember when Marshall, U Buffalo and a few others recently have made the transition and they SUCK. College football is so different than the NFL where there are only 32 teams, the talent is all top notch even on the “worst” team, and regardless if you are a Shitzburgh Steelers fan or Cowgirl fan, you know that even with your long history of “winning” and Superbowls, it doesn’t make it a lock to get to the playoffs or SB because every year is so different (read – every team has a shot at least in beginning of season, whereas collage FB its pretty much going to be a team in the Top 10 pre-season poll no matter what).
College football is also much different than even college basketball. At least, as evident with JMU’s team this year, you don’t have to be a “top ranked” blue chip type team like Kentucky, UNC, Kansas etc or others that have a history of winning programs, to have a shot of making a run in the NCAA tourney if you can somehow pull out a conference tourney title. Sure eventually the cream rises to the top (i.e. Indiana) and there are fewer 2006 GMU and 2011 VCU runs to the final four by mid-majors than there are the likes of the power teams, but I just feel that at least there is a more of a “shot” of something in post-season in college basketball for more teams than there is for football just because the of the nature of the sports we are talking.
What I am getting at is, and its not that I have the perfect answer for JMU’s decision on where to go or what to do, that we really do need to think about us as fans what we really want. Do we want to try to compete or play at a level that will require us to draw the talent and other resources from the university to support that we will never get and then just get beat up and have losing seasons just to say we play at the top level? Or do we want to try to continue to try to draw the talent we have over the past years to continue to keep our niche and try to work towards more championships and winning seasons at the level we are at now? Sure maybe some of the programs we considered to be top FCS are leaving, but there are still some left and as they say, you still have to prove it on the field – no paper championships.
JMU administration got the cart before the horse. The stadium addition ignited the idea of moving to FBS. They are not ready for FBS. Unfortunately, they will never have a TV market. JMU is good but has not earned a reputation of dominating FCS like Boise and Marshall. (And by the way Appalachian has dominated but will not be a FBS factor due to no TV market, travel, and the entry of UNCC to FBS.)
Coach Mickey has done a creditable job at JMU but did not sustain the 2004 championship momentum and should have moved up as a head coach by now. The killer instinct to win has probably passed him by no matter how hard he works. It may take JMU 5 or 10 more years of building a dominant program, endowment and new coaching staff to be a premiere FBS candidate. As league reorganization settles down, more and more fans are realizing their are losers and winners after changing leagues. WVU appears already to be a loser. Rutgers and Md. are suspects in everybody’s mind. Fans can’t even tell you the teams in Conf USA or Sunbelt.
JMU fans were having a ball in the CAA after 2004 and the playoff system was the spice. The new stadium has confused and frustrated the fans. Win the FCS championship and retool for FBS.
JMU to the ACC …
If not that then, to the AAC ….
If not that, then CUSA ….
The CAA has gotten too “Bush League” … JMU is better then that! JMU HAS then DC Metro TV market … join the big time, get the big bucks! Remember, its all about the money! Can you you imagine “Game Day” coming to H’Burg as JMU faces ‘Bama?! Yes, it can happen.