Game Preview: The Dukes Take on Delaware
The JMU Dukes welcome their old pals the Delaware Blue Hens to Harrisonburg this weekend. It’s the Blue Hens first trip to Bridge forth since its been expanded. And it’s a crucial game for both teams. After dropping a tough one to Villanova last Saturday a win would get the Dukes back to .500 in CAA play. Delaware has yet to play a league game thus far, but would obviously love to start off CAA play on the right foot.
The Facts
Match-up: unranked JMU Dukes (2-2, 0-1 CAA) vs #25 Delaware Blue Hens (2-1, 0-0 CAA)
Kick-off: 4:00 PM Saturday, September 27 in Bridgeforth Stadium
Weather: Sunny with a high of 77
Broadcast: Madizone, CAA.tv, and Comcast Sportsnet
How They Got Here
You know the story for the Dukes. They suffered a blowout loss to an FBS program, came from behind to defeat a Patriot League team on the road, overcame a slow start to win against an NEC program, and then let one get away against Nova. Delaware also got crushed by an FBS foe, falling 62-0 to Pitt, cruised past a lesser FCS program in Delaware State, and then came back to defeat Colgate, a Patriot League team. In short, both teams have had similar starts to the 2014 season. I suppose we could attempt to argue that JMU looked better in its crushing defeat at the hands of an FBS opponent, but that would be like, well, attempting to argue that JMU looked better in its crushing defeat at the hands of an FBS opponent. When you get to that point, it’s really just best to let it go.
490.3
That’s JMU’s average yards a game on offense. It’s a 20% improvement over last year. While it’s still early, indications are that the Dukes’ new up-tempo offense will quite effective. Vad Lee is still trying to take full command of it, but he’s looked more comfortable each week. Despite being forced to deal with a rash of injuries to the running backs, the Dukes are averaging 245.8 yards a game and 5.3 yards a carry on the ground. Both numbers are tops in the CAA. The offense is still rounding into form, but it’s clicking pretty well already.
265
That’s the average number or yards rushing Delaware has been surrendering each game. Hmm. That presents an opportunity for the Dukes, no?
489.5
This is the elephant in the room. It’s the average number of yards a game the JMU defense is giving up. If you can somehow put a positive spin on it, you’re a better man than me. It’s the reason Everett Withers got more involved with the D this week and has promised to make whatever changes are necessary. He started by moving WR Marquis Woodward to defensive back. It’s a high risk, high reward sort of move. And exactly the sort of thing coaches do, when their is nowhere to go but up.
Enough With the Numbers
We could continue to thrill and amaze you with type numbers all day, but what do they mean? Basically they just confirm what most of us know. JMU has been able to move the ball on offense. And despite the fact that the Dukes have faced a number of injuries to the running backs, they’ve still put up some very impressive rushing numbers. And Khalid Abdullah, arguably JMU’s most dangerous running back is due to return on Saturday. The Delaware rush defense has been rather suspect. We expect the Dukes to run the ball well. Delaware pass defense is actually pretty good, but if the Dukes run effectively, it should open up the passing attack for Vad Lee and his stable of pass catching weapons.
Now defensively, it’s a different story. JMU has struggled to tackle. JMU has struggled to stop teams from running the ball, and passing the ball, and scoring. You get the point. Delaware has a talented QB in Trent Hurley. Given the opportunity, he could do some damage against JMU. The defense doesn’t need to be lights out, but it absolutely needs to improve.
How Delaware Can Win
By getting to Vad Lee and limiting the big plays. Delaware is not a great defensive team. They’re not giving up nearly 500 yards a game bad, but they’re not going to pitch any shutouts either. If Abdullah gets going and Lee spreads the ball around to his receivers like he did last week, JMU could put up a lot of points.
In the loss to Nova, JMU showed that it has a number of big play threats. The Dukes had 8 plays go for 20 yards or greater. The best way to eliminate those big plays for Delaware is to get to Vad Lee early and often. Given time, he could have a pretty big day. The Blue Hens pass defense might only give up 132 yards a game (2nd best in the CAA), but whether that’s indicative of a great scheme or just a by product of having a weak rush D that teams exploit, remains to be seen.
On offense, the blue print for beating JMU is there. See what the defense gives you and take advantage. It’s sad, but true. Trent Hurley is a decent QB with some weapons. He’s no John Robertson, but he’s good enough to exploit mistakes. If the Dukes continue to make mistakes like missing tackles and making incorrect reads, Hurley has to capitalize for UD to win.
How JMU Can Win
By maintaining a balanced attack. Lee put up big “counting” stats last week, throwing for a record number of yards. But he still didn’t have an extremely efficient day. Like most QBs, a strong running game is his best friend. JMU shouldn’t be throwing the ball 40+ times a game. Establishing the run will open things up for Lee and lead to long drives that keep the D resting on the sideline. After spending the first few games locked in on Sean Tapley, Lee has discovered his other receivers. Last week he completed passes to 8 different guys. If he continues to mis it up like that, it will keep the defense guessing and lead to big plays. The talent is there and the scheme works. Now it’s just about limiting mistakes and not becoming one dimensional.
On defense the Dukes need to suck less. And tackle. Tackle better please. That’s all I care to say about that.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Firestone Walker Double Jack is our Beer of the Week. It’s chosen for no other reason that the fact that I drank one while writing this. And I liked it. So hopefully you will too. Todd and I both probably fall into the hop head category and love hop bombs. This is a bitter brew, but by today’s standards it’s definitely not over the top and is pretty drinkable. Since it’s an imperial IPA, it’s a big beer (9.5% ABV), but it’s suitable for sharing at tailgate or having yourself if you’re stuck at home watching the game on tv.
Official JMUSB Prediction
Cancel your pity party after last week’s loss. JMU is going to be just fine, starting with a confidence building win at home over Delaware. Abdullah paces the running game, Lee throws for far fewer yards but completes a higher percentage, and the D takes a small step forward. Dukes 35 – Blue Chickens 24.
