Guest Post: Is JMU Proving Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory?
Our buddy Zac (@ZPriceIsRight) contributed some fun guest posts during football season, so we recently asked him if he’d like to submit something about hoops. Thankfully he agreed. Here’s his take on the Andre Nation-less Dukes and Bill Simmon’s famous “Ewing Theory.”
For those of you who don’t read Bill Simmons, the Ewing Theory was a theory he pushed on his “The Sports Guy” column. More accurately, it was put forth by his friend Dave Cirilli, back in the early 90s. But it wasn’t put into print until Simmons ran this article in 2009.
To prevent you from having to read two articles (although it’s a great one), the Ewing Theory came about when Cirilli noticed that Ewing’s teams would have better results when he went out with an injury He noticed it both at Georgetown and with the Knicks.
Check the article for other classic Ewing Theory candidates, (my favorite is the 2000 Mariners), but the question I’m asking here is: are the 2014-15 Dukes a Ewing Theory candidate?
Now, before we delve into this, I should clear the air about my personal feelings towards Nation. I loved him, and was entirely in his corner. I followed him on twitter through the good and the bad, but always delighted in whatever nonsense he was tweeting. I hated hearing about his multiple suspensions, but usually sided with coach on the action he took. I was heartbroken when he left the team. Especially because of his strangely out of character mature(ish) response to it all. The fact he still shows up to support “his team” breaks my heart. But we all have to deal with the consequences of our actions in life, and so I hope he learns that lesson.
Having said that, I’m clearly not someone with a bone to pick with Andre. But I still can’t help but to look at what this team has become without him and think… wow, we really are a case of addition by subtraction.
Really, it was already there at the beginning of the season for us to see. The Dukes went 4-1 (with a loss to #9 UVA) winning 4 in a row when Nation was on a 5 game suspension at the beginning of the season. We lost the first game he came back, to #16 Ohio State. Okay, that was probably expected. But, looking at the games until Nation got dismissed from the team, the Dukes went 5-7 with him on the roster.
Without Nation, the Dukes finished the season 10-4 for an overall record of 14-5 without him. Now, you could argue that we didn’t beat anyone noteworthy without him (and really, you could argue that for the whole team on the year – we beat the teams we should have and lost the games we should have), but I’d like to look at the stretch of basketball with him.
WITH NATION:
First 3 Games:
Dukes 56 – Ohio State 73
Campbell 61 – Dukes 63
Richmond 46 – Dukes 51
Okay, looking good so far. Dukes were obviously outmatched against the Buckeyes, but won a close game against Campbell (who finished 10th in the Big South), and what looks now like an upset against the SPATTERS (suck it, Spatters), who is currently 5th in the A10, and swept VCU on the season. Conclusion: Dukes would destroy the Rams.
Next 3 Games:
Dukes 58 – ECU 70
Dukes 72 – Ball State 52
High Point 80 – Dukes 71
Okay, two losses here. I would argue the ECU loss is the worst of the two. ECU is currently 7th in the AAC, with a 13-16 record. They have one game left. We probably should have taken care of this game. High Point is 22-8 and finished 1st in the Big South. They’re looking pretty strong.
Next 3 Games:
Norfolk State 74 – Dukes 71 OT
Valpo 79 – Dukes 52
Towson 52 – Dukes 61
That Norfolk State loss hurts. Sure, they’re 2nd in the Mid-Eastern with a 18-12 record, but it’s a game we gotta win at home. Valpo is 1st in the Horizon with a 25-5 overall. They’re a good squad, and according to Rob’s recap I just read we shot like shit in that game.
Final 3 Games:
CoC 50 – Dukes 61
Northeastern 65 – Dukes 59
Nerds 81 – Dukes 73
That 2nd half versus Northeastern killed us. We were up 30-21 at the half, and that was a game against an “upper half” team that we could have stolen at home. The Nerds, well, you know. They kind of have our number this year and I hate them. But hey, it’s the nerds so they will definitely choke in the Tourney and not make the tourney.
So during that time, I count two or three games (NE at home, Norfolk State, arguably ECU) we could have won if we had been firing at all cylinders. Did Coach Brady see that as well? I don’t know.
Sure, throughout this season we are almost perfect at beating the teams we should and losing to the teams we should, but the record shows we’re a better team without Nation.
One last thought on the Ewing Theory – it doesn’t have a requirement for winning it all, just doing better without the perceived “star” player. So, I’m not arguing we’ll make a run through the CAA Tourney. I just honestly think we’re a better team without Nation.
As always, would love to hear what you have to say in the comments. Thanks to Rob and Todd for allowing me to share my thoughts with y’all!
I agree completely that we’re better without Nation. He has a lot of talent, but with him in the mix we just don’t play as well as a team. If we had pulled off even 1 win against the top 3 (like that NE game) I would would be much less apathetic towards this team…and not lost to RPI #223 ECU…
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