Guest Post: Harrisonburg Regional Preview
This is a guest post by NCAA softball expert @BHansen40. In it he breaks down JMU’s opponents in the opening round of the NCAA Softball College World Series.
The postseason is coming to Harrisonburg this week as the NCAA selection committee rewarded JMU with an NCAA regional, despite coming up short in the Colonial Athletic Association. Ironically, the three teams making the trip to the ‘Burg, North Carolina State, Fordham and Binghamton, are familiar with each having played one another in the NC State Invitational in Raleigh earlier this season.
I have seen mentions on twitter and message boards of JMU receiving a favorable regional. Statistically that might be true if you were to base it off the RPIs of all the teams, but mostly I feel like that decision is being made by the fact that there is no SEC team in Harrisonburg and only one team from a Power Five conference. However, I’m sure Coach Dean has been telling his team the same thing I will say now: Nothing is easy when you get into the NCAA Tournament and if you come with anything less than your best effort, you will not be moving on to the Super Regionals.
So, while JMU is going to be the favorite this weekend, their margin for error will be thin. Fortunately, many of the Dukes have two postseasons worth of experience to fall back on and will undoubtedly come ready to play. Now let’s take a look at this weekend’s opposition:
Binghamton
First off let me say that when you get into the NCAA Tournament it is not an accident. Everyone is facing nothing but good teams at this point, so don’t be shocked to see the regional’s fourth seed, Binghamton, give the other three teams a run for their money. I was there in 2009 when fourth-seed James Madison had regional host Tennessee on the ropes heading into the late innings. I also saw Ohio play Kentucky tight in last year’s NCAA regional, falling by a 2-0 score to the regional host.
The point is, just because Binghamton has an RPI over 100, don’t expect JMU to win in a walk over. The Bearcats have challenged themselves with a difficult schedule, taking on the likes of Michigan, Arizona State, Longwood and NC State. They also went onto Long Island and won at Stony Brook twice on the final day of the America East tournament to take the crown. This is the same Stony Brook team that notched wins over JMU and Hofstra in the regular season.
Binghamton will bring a powerful lineup into Harrisonburg, hitting .302/.395/.478 as a team. Lisa Cadogan leads the way with a .434 batting average, 10 home runs and 52 RBIs. She is joined by five other regulars that hit over .300 and the team socked 43 home runs, 58 doubles and eight triples in 43 games this year. They are vulnerable in the circle as all three of their primary pitchers boast ERAs north of 3.90. Sarah Miller has thrown the most innings and would be my guess to get the start against the Dukes. She is 11-7 with a 5.29 ERA and a 76-72 strike out to walk ratio.
JMU clears holds the advantage in the circle which is where this game will likely be won. If Jailyn Ford and/or Megan Good bring their normal dominance, that should allow the Dukes’ lineup to go to work on the Bearcats’ staff and push JMU into the winner’s bracket on Saturday.
NC State
Emily Weiman. I don’t want to be rude to the rest of the Wolfpack roster, but really its chances of advancing rest on the strong right shoulder of Weiman. She has thrown 256 of the teams 357 1/3 innings this season. She is 28-15 with a 2.41 ERA and 294 strikeouts and two seasons ago, she beat the Dukes twice to send them home in the Knoxville Regional. Her name is all over the NC State record book as well as the NCAA record book. Should JMU square off with NC State, it will be imperative for them to get to the right-hander early and force her to throw as many pitches as possible.
She is backed up by a very good lineup as well. Renada Davis hit .382 with 27 extra-base hits and 39 RBIs while Tyler Ross added 14 home runs and a .316 batting average. Defensively, the Wolfpack is solid with a .964 fielding percentage and teams only stole 29 bases against them all year. They are unlikely to give opponents anything for free, so teams are going to have to get to Weiman on their own to beat them.
Fordham
The Rams come into Harrisonburg riding an 11-game winning streak including racing through the Atlantic 10 tournament with four straight wins to earn their way to the postseason. At 36-18, they are a talented team capable of winning this regional. Fordham bats .312/.386/.472 as a team bringing plenty of power at the plate. They get players on base with four players posting on-base percentage over .400. Kayla Lombardo leads the way with a .434 OBP adding 18 extra-base hits and 25 walks to prove a very difficult out at the plate.
In the circle, Rachel Gillen and Michele Daubman will likely both see action. Gillen is the team’s “ace” with a 2.28 ERA and 23 wins. She has 236 strikeouts against 59 walks and opponents hits .223 against her.
As for predictions, I expect Coach Dean will stick with the same lineup he has all season. No reason to change a formula that works. I expect he will go with Good in the Dukes’ first game against Binghamton and then go with Ford against the Fordham, NC State winner in game two. I would not be surprised, however, if he decided to throw Ford in game one because of her postseason experience. That’s what’s nice about have two of the best pitchers in the nation; there really isn’t a wrong answer.
The winner of this weekend’s regional gets the privilege of squaring off with the winner of the Eugene regional. I’m going to be uncreative and pick the chalk and have JMU flying out to Oregon to face the Ducks in the Supers.
