JMU Awarded 5 Seed for 2015 FCS Playoffs
The JMU Dukes are going dancing. We all knew JMU had done enough to earn a bid to the 2015 FCS playoffs. We just didn’t know who’d they’d face first. The FCS Playoff selection committee made it official this morning and granted the Dukes the 5th seed. With the seed, the Dukes earned a bye next week and the right to host a home game next week. They’ll face the winner of the match-up between the CAA’s own New Hampshire Wildcats and Colgate from the Patriot League. Here are a few quick thoughts on the bracket.
Heck of a Draw
We like this draw. JMU entered this weekend with an outside shot at a seed, pending a win over Villanova and a couple of other breaks. The Dukes got both the win and the breaks they needed. They used an opportunistic performance from the defense to defeat Nova, then were fortunate to have 5 teams ranked above them lose. The combination cleared the path to a seed. And the Dukes didn’t get just any seed, they got a great draw. UNH and Colgate both had fine seasons and are definitely not pushovers, but several of the other seeded teams face far more intimidating opponents in round 2. If JMU is fortunate to win its opener, having McNeese State as the other seed in it’s bracket ain’t bad. The McNeese defense has been stellar, but they didn’t exactly play a murderers row.
Always Be Closing
The committee clearly penalized teams who couldn’t close out the regular season. It seemed to be a case of not who you lost to, but when you lost, that ultimately bit some teams. Fellow CAA teams William & Mary and Richmond both must be kicking themselves. Had either one won out the past two weekends, they might have taken the 5th seed (or snuck into the top 4). Richmond lost to Nova last weekend and things were all set up for the Tribe. Defeat the arch rival Ticks and a seed was theirs. Instead, they coughed up an L and now need to win next weekend for the right to play a rematch against Richmond. Likewise, late losses by Coastal Carolina and South Dakota state proved costly.
Strong Showing for the CAA But…
Getting four teams in the playoffs is a great accomplishment for the CAA. Doing it in a year when its arguably two best players (Vad Lee and John Robertson) go down with season ending injuries is even better. There are plenty of bubble teams unhappy right now, but the CAA’s Towson has a legit gripe. The Tigers won five of their last 6 ball games and managed to finish 7-4. Yet, they’ll be sitting at home watching as a 6-5 Western Illinois squad gets to play Dayton in round 1. Ultimately, the Tigers’ loss to lowly Elon cost them. Had they won that, they would have finished 8-3 and been a lock. So 4 teams from the CAA is terrific, but it could have been even better.
The committee did us a huge favor with our draw. Richmond beat us at home and won our conference, but somehow we got seeded higher than them. My mini-conspiracy theory: The committee wants us to advance as far as possible because after Gameday, they saw just how passionate our fans can be. Therefore, they gave us a relatively easy path because they know our fans will travel and support the team week after week (meaning we’ll fill stadiums and watch on TV and everything that goes into supporting a deep playoff run). Maybe the committee really thinks we’re better than Richmond, but I also think that we made a name for ourselves on a national level, and the committee wants to tap into that enthusiasm.
In the final FCS Coaches Poll we were ranked #6, which is higher than Richmond and William and Mary. So, the committee took into account more than just head to head. So, unless all of the FCS coaches are a part of the conspiracy…
Go Dukes!
STATS FCS Top 25 and SRS also have JMU ranked above Richmond and William and Mary.
Playoff tickets are so cheap, there’s no reason to not set a new BFS attedance record. No Thanksgiving break to blame this year.
Home playoff game 2 years in a row… thats gotta be some kind of record or something.
Yeah, I don’t think the selection was based on anything other than the committee believing JMU’s total body of work was better than UR’s or W&M’s. JMU had no bad losses and closed with 2 straight wins. Same can’t be said for the Spiders and Ticks.
Still, if you’re some of the other higher-ranked teams who went unseeded, I don’t blame you for scratching your head. There were some real shockers in the draw. Sam Houston State could be very pissed off, and who could blame them? Betcha KC Keeler’s got that “nobody believes in us” mojo working. Chattanooga felt some rough justice too.
But Coastal just out-stupided themselves against Liberty. Great year overall but no way does a coach who calls that play late in the game get a seed.
I have no problem with how the CAA was seeded. Let the Griffins kick themselves, an outright title was theirs to lose. And when was the last time we could say that we were lucky in the draw? I almost miss being able to bitch about this. However, I think we’re a pretty flawed team and everything broke as well as possible for us. I can definitely see semifinals but it will take a big effort to deal with Jacksonville State, who feel that they underachieved last year.
Finally, look at all five MVF teams on the other side of the bracket. Nobody in that conference is thrilled, especially since they believe there could have been a Bison-Redbirds rematch in Frisco.
All 3 major polls have JMU ranked between 6-8, so a 5 is not that far of a stretch. Based on the polls, I could see people complaining about Richmond being a seed (STATS = #12, Coaches = 11, SRS = 19). W&M are where they probably should be (STATS = 13, Coaches = 13, SRS = 10). Complaining about New Hampshire getting in…maybe justified.
So, was JMU luck to get a 5? Probably, but there was no doubt they would get a seed based on all of the polls. Luckily the pollsters don’t read all of the “sky is falling” comments from JMU fans on these blogs.
Bottom line. Dukes are in with a bye and playing at home. Time to prove the committee right.
Go Dukes!!!
It’s a total body of work analysis; but somewhere in there somebody factors into the trajectory of teams on a streak. I wouldn’t call two wins in a row a ‘streak,’ but relatively speaking… I mean, look around. Richmond and WM were both 1-1 coming into selection Sunday. A whole lot of teams lost the final week who had been seated ahead of us. Yes, many were up against FBS opponents, but still. I’m pretty sure that is a factor they weigh when they do the seeding. Anyway, could be completely wrong, but I think it’s a reasonable hypothesis. At any rate; glad to get the 5 seed. GO DUKES!
Sorry; forgot that I had just read that yesterday… need more coffee.
A new season begins now with the playoffs. We need to show up and be loud and proud. GO DUKES!!!!
JMU not deserving of the 5th seed, but regardless UNH will beat the Dukes in Harrisonburg — one and done, again.
The only thing I would change is to spread out the conference teams a little better. I don’t care if all 4 CAA teams advance to the end or none do. Just make it so they don’t eliminate each other so soon. It would be a more honest look at how strong the conferences are.
Xerk, best case is 2 CAA teams in the semis and a possible all-CAA title game. I’m OK with that possibility.
downsouth– keep rootin, man.
Great placement in the brackets! Go DUUUUUKKKKKEEEES!
On another matter, what has happened to Gage Steele …. Haven’t seen him play much recently … & no placement on the ‘All – CAA’ lists.