JMUSB Men’s CAA Tournament Preview

In all the years we’ve been doing this, it’s pretty clear that this year’s CAA tournament ushers in the biggest anxiety for us as Dukes fans. There have been (plenty of) years where the JMU’s men’s team was just awful and our biggest hope was to win a game on Pillow-Fight Friday and just to make it to Saturday. And then there was 2013 when the third-seeded Dukes managed to win the dang thing after we thought they had a shot, but the reason we felt that was their were only seven teams in a horrendous field that year thanks to defections (ODU, GMU) and kids that can’t read good (Towson – who was maybe the conference’s best team that year, and UNCW). Plus although we loved that collection of kids (Rayshawn, Devon Moore, AJ Davis, freshman trio of Curry/Nation/Cooke, etc.), that was a team that never really put it all together in the regular season so we didn’t know what to expect. And maybe more than that, thanks to a middling record and the CAA’s absolute bottoming out that year, the champ was inevitably headed for a 16 seed and zippy shot of the dream upset in the big dance.  Which brings us to this year. It’s been a crazy year in the league and I think all of us who follow the league closely agree on two things. First, that ANY of the top six teams (Hofstra, UNCW, Towson, JMU, W&M, Northeastern) cutting down the nets next Monday night would not be a huge surprise. And second, that any one of those six would probably avoid a DOA-16 seed and be a dangerous opponent for anyone in the country come round one in three weeks. Needless to say, this should lead to a crazy entertaining long weekend at the Royal Ghetto Arena in Charm City.

The Basics

JMU is seeded fourth and will play the only other remaining Virginia school still stuck in the CAA in their rival William & Mary Tribe in the second round Saturday at 2:30 p.m. in Baltimore. The Dukes and pantless Griffins split their regular season meetings though if you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic it’s worth noting JMU blew an 18-point lead in their loss in Williamsburg. Basically, the Dukes should compete well. The matchup is particularly intriguing because it pits the Dukes’ CAA-best defense against the potent offensive efficiency of the Nerds. The winner will advance to most likely face top-seeded Hofstra (the Pride take on the winner of the 8/9 game between Elon and Drexel which will almost certainly be Elon).

The Road to a Championship

There really isn’t an easy road in the conference as every team except Drexel and Delaware has been competitive this season so there’s not much use wishing we’d drawn Towson instead of W&M for example. But yes, the Dukes could very easily trip up right out of the gate. However, if JMU can get by the first one, we actually like drawing Hofstra instead of the 2 seed UNCW. Hofstra is really solid and the duo of Green and Gustys is a handful, but UNCW has looked like the biggest matchup nightmare this season for the Dukes (JMU was basically non-competitive in both games agains the Seahawks) and JMU will avoid them till the finals, when maybe/hopefully they will have been upset by someone else like homesteading Towson. In any case, it’s probably W&M, then Hofstra, then UNCW. Damned tough road, but the Dukes are very capable this year.

The Question

Will Shakir Brown be healthy enough to contribute? JMU beat W&M without him last weekend, but they could really use him if they want to play all the way to Monday night.

Why Each Team Can Win

Hofstra has Juan’ya Green and Gustys and they won the regular season. UNCW has the most athletic starting five in the conference and they should be motivated before their new coach goes to the gallows thanks to his alleged role in Louisville’s hooker-gate. Towson might be the shakiest of the top six, but the tourney (thankfully for the last time) is in their backyard and if they get a win Saturday, their crowds will build Sunday and Monday. The Dukes have the league’s best depth, best defense (always important for winning in a tourney format), and the type of senior point guard in Ron Curry that tends to take over an event like this. W&M is well-coached as always by Tony Shaver and can shoot their way past anyone on a given night. Northeastern has struggled with consistency but they appear to be getting arguably the conference’s most talented player in Quincy Ford back from injury just in time which would make a title less surprising than their seed implies.

Charleston and Elon have both shown flashes all year and while four wins in four days may be too tall a task in this field, they have a chance to put scares into UNCW and Hofstra in the second round for sure and are capable of beating anyone.

Delaware and Drexel cannot win the tourney. They are awful. Bruiser Flint HAS to be fired on Saturday, right?!

Fan Pro Tip

The arena is so so ghetto, but there’s a way to make it fun and meet up with lots of other CAA dorks throughout the action. Behind one basket is the corporate yuk-fest and you don’t need to go there. But behind the other basket is a pretty cool little fan-zone where you can still watch the game from floor-level while also enjoying very B’more-esque tall boys of cheap domestic swill. Thank us later.