Ball St. @ JMU: Official JMUSB Game #4 Preview

Quick Note from JMUSB HQ

Sorry to inform you but we’re back baby, and we’re going to have a very special surprise poster doing these most weeks starting with next week’s Sun Belt opener at ULM. But just to get us back in the swing, us old guys are doing the first one this season for fun. Maybe nobody reads these, but the three of us enjoy the writing exercise and how it makes us really think about the upcoming game and where we are at a given moment in JMU’s meteoric rise. And occassionally, we might get to publish something that makes us swell with purple pride like this bit last year.

The Basics

Matchup: Ball State Cardinals (1-2, 0-1 MAC) at JMU Dukes (3-0, 0-0 Sun Belt)

Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium, The Valley

Weather: Partly Cloudy, humid, 77

Broadcast: ESPN+

Boys in the Desert: JMU -20, O/U 56.5, ML -1200

How We Got Here

A 13-6 nailbiter against FCS Gardner-Webb that the Dukes trailed 3-0 at the half followed by hanging 70 on UNC is truly an insane swing. Ball St. is 1-2, beating a good local-ish FCS team in Missouri St. in their opener before losing to Miami (FL) in their P4 game and narrowly dropping their MAC opener on the road at Central Michigan last week.

How Ball St. Can Win

Slow the Dukes down enough early to put doubt back in the home team. The last two games have been the most divergent from each other from any two we’ve ever seen from JMU. We’re bullish on the Dukes but the way for Ball St. to make this a game is to take the crowd out like in the opener and make enough plays to not let JMU back in it. The Cardinals are legitmately capable offensively – scoring 42 in their opener, moving the ball decently despite getting crushed by Miami in Week 2, and then dropping a shootout 37-34 on the road last week at CMU. In other words, they’re averaging more than 25 points per game despite getting shutout.

On the other hand, the defense is “limited” in terms of athleticism and has given up 34 to FCS Missouri St., 62 to the Canes, and 37 last week. In other words, while they need to emulate Gardner-Webb’s taking out of the crowd, if the Cards are gonna win it sure seems like they’ll need to do it by outscoring the Dukes rather than a slopfest the Bulldogs turned that Week 2 game into.

How JMU Can Win

Start fast and hit a few big plays. It’s really that simple. Sure, we’d love to see progress defensively after a hard-to-interpret performance in Chapel Hill last week. But Ball St. has show almost zero ability to slow anyone down and if the Dukes can hit a couple of what are rapidly becoming their signature big plays early, this should get as ugly as that trip to Coral Gables.

Notes and Updates

Felt like the Dukes had played the Cards before, and sure enough, the FCS Dukes lost back in 1997 in Muncie, Indiana. Couldn’t figure out if our pal Greg Maddox was QB1 that day though.

Ayo Adeyi not listed on the two-deep. He warmed up and then went to the locker room visibly frustrated last week so hopefully he can heal up soon. Still no Tyshawn Wyatt. On the positive side, Taji Hudson listed as a starter this week after playing a bit last week and getting a target – that should boost the offensive firepower!

JMUSB Beer of the Week

Mythos. Your boy got to travel and try a few crazy beers in France and Greece this summer, but the one you can both a) find stateside and b) makes for a great early tailgate beer is one of the Greek OG’s – Mythos. Go to Total Wine in that weird part of the international aisle and find this Miller Lite but more flavor staple.

Official JMUSB Prediction

JMU 45, Ball St. 17

After adjusting to the new team, new staff, and new schemes, our bet is the Dukes are a lot closer to the team we saw last at UNC than the team that sputtered in the home opener. All the breaks won’t go quite as insanley in their favor as last week, but JMU is going to shred the Cards defense and run away with this one. The hype will begin building again heading to Monroe for the SBC opener.

Playoffs?! Darn Right We’re Talking Playoffs

Coaches and Players can choose to avoid this topic. Us fans, we’re gonna have fun it with until we can’t. Until the Dukes are eliminated through losses, we’re noting a few games we’d urge fans to keep an eye on. The BIG one this week is late night out west on the blue turf. JMU fans should root for the following (or at least note the result in games between two competitors for the G5 slot).

Wazzu over Boise St. (FS1 10 p.m.) – Wazzu and Oregon St. are NOT eligible for the CFP except as at-larges, which is extremely unlikely unless Wazzu goes undefeated (which would be extremely cool and not effect the G5 slot) so we’re rooting for the Cougs.

App St. over Liberty (3:30 p.m. ESPN+) – Undefeated Dukes would be ahead of undefeated Flames, but it would be better for everyone else in the G5 to end the Liberty farce right now and avoid the need to go undefeated (JMU still might have to be perfect in a down SBC, but a one-loss MWC champ would have a case).

Fresno St. at UNLV (3:30 p.m. FS1) – Not really sure who to root for here but worth keeping an eye on. Fresno has a good loss to Michigan but is probably the better team long-term so either result works.