The Basics
Matchup: JMU (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) at Texas State (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET ON A TUESDAY, UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas
Weather: 76 and Sunny. Finally some redemption for those of us that have made some very cold trips to Texas for JMU Football over the years!
Broadcast: ESPN2
Day Job Numbers: JMU -7, ML -275; O/U 55.5
This opened JMU -6.5 at most books, including my home base at BetMGM. The fact that it quickly popped up to a key number suggests there is buy-in on the Dukes from more than just the guy at the end of the bar.
Quirky Appetizer vs. Godless Abomination
Let’s get the obvious thing out of the way. College football on a Tuesday night is extraordinarily weird.
There’s a certain give-and-take flow to these weeks in the fall, where fans can work through the week and get rewarded with college football on Saturday. A Tuesday game messes up that relationship.
Even weirder is a Tuesday game that naturally becomes the teams’ only contest in a 20-day period. That’s just downright bizarre.
We’ve all collectively grown used to weird MAC and Conference USA teams playing in these early-week monstrosities. I suppose that’s because bad football is better than no football.
This game between Texas State and JMU is so unusual because it’s not bad football. One stat of many: both teams rank among the top 50 FBS teams in yards per play.
The Dukes are even receiving votes in the Week 10 AP Poll now. No team mentioned anywhere in an AP Poll (RV or otherwise) has played on a regular-season Tuesday night in more than two years. Amusingly, the last such game was in October 2023, when Liberty was near the top of the RV section and played a great-for-a-Tuesday roadie at Western Kentucky. (That same week, JMU had cracked the AP Poll at No. 25.)
I guess what I’m trying to say is that your mileage might vary on these Tuesday games. I think I’ve decided I prefer to watch directional schools from Michigan play in any time period that takes place between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football.
On the bright side, watching your team play on a Tuesday is probably the closest an adult can ever come to recreating that childlike feeling of your parents letting you stay up until midnight for New Year’s Eve. There’s a real sense of getting something that’s strange, forbidden, unique – and it might not come around again for a while. So there is that.
Just make sure you have a good excuse for why you’re hungover at work on Wednesday morning.
Four Things To Know About Texas State
Ironic Repeat Offender – Texas State is the first Sun Belt West team that JMU has drawn more than once in its cross-divisional matchups. The Bobcats came to Harrisonburg in JMU’s first FBS season, in 2022. (Those who frequent home games will remember this as a particularly unpleasant game impacted by the outskirts of Hurricane Ian.)
Of course, this is likely a one-and-done trip to San Marcos for JMU, since the Bobcats will be departing the Sun Belt for the new Pac-12. So the fact that JMU squeezed two games in against Texas State in its first four years is pretty amusing, to say the least.
Win or lose, make sure you wave goodbye on the way out of town.
Snakebitten – The records at the top of the post confirm that this game is first-place JMU playing against last-place Texas State. The Bobcats are 0-3 in the Sun Belt Standings and haven’t beaten an FBS team since the first week of September.
When I frame it up like that, it sounds like JMU should roll. But this Texas State game presents one of the most dangerous challenges of the season – And no, I’m not being sarcastic or practicing my coachspeak.
Let’s put aside any JMU-specific challenges for a moment. Texas State has been utterly unlucky for about a month, losing three straight Sun Belt games in excruciating fashion.
During Texas State’s Oct. 4 conference opener, Arkansas State scored a touchdown with seven seconds left in regulation and won, 31-30. A week later, first-place Troy beat the Bobcats in overtime. In Week 8, the Bobcats went to Marshall and lost, 40-37, in double overtime.
This is an offensively gifted team, coached by an offensively brilliant coach, that has been on the unlucky side of every conference game it’s played so far. The best team in the conference is coming to town, which gives this Texas State team a glorious opportunity for absolution.
I can all but guarantee you that JMU will get Texas State’s best punch this week.
Action Jackson – Brad Jackson is the new quarterback operating head coach GJ Kinne’s Run & Gun offense this year, and it’s been a productive season for the freshman from San Antonio. He set a career-high with 444 passing yards against Marshall in Week 8; on the ground, he has accounted for eight touchdowns in his last six games.
Jackson is one of only two Sun Belt quarterbacks with a Total QBR that ranks among the top 25 scores in FBS. And bonus points for you if you can guess the other one!
(No, not him. It’s Cameran Brown at Georgia State.)
(Yes, I’m sure. I checked it twice.)
(I know what you’re probably wondering, so I’ll just tell you: Alonza Barnett’s QBR of 65.9 currently ranks outside the top 50 in FBS, behind ODU’s Colton Joseph and Marshall’s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.)
(Look, don’t get mad at me. I’m just telling you what the stat is.)
I think the image people have when they think of Kinne and Texas State’s offense is a 2010s-esque Big 12 Air Raid. But this is closer to a true spread with more balance in the run game – Jackson only attempts about 26 passes per game – and Kinne is maximizing that multidimensionality with Jackson’s dual-theat skill set.
Let’s have one more offensive stat while we’re on the subject of the run game. Texas State ranks 70th in offensive success rate for run plays, but 34th when you aggregate all its run plays and look at EPA per rush. That means Texas State is popping a ton of big plays on the ground, which sets up their explosive pass potential and skews their per-down advanced analytics.
On the Road Again – There’s nothing particularly difficult or special about San Marcos. It’s a road destination in the 2025 Sun Belt.
Some people are asking: Wouldn’t it be good if JMU football could leave the confines of the Friendly City and play a complete, 60-minute game of football without bad penalties, unforced errors, high-leverage mistakes, and missed opportunities?
Resharing a stat I tweeted a few weeks ago here: Since the start of the 2024 season, JMU has had one halftime lead in road games against G5 opponents. One. (It was against Charlotte.)
When you have to play from behind that much, you eventually get burnt.
And look, I know it’s not easy to win on the road in conference games. But if JMU wants to host a conference championship game, or flirt with other hypothetical games beyond that, this is the kind of difficult game JMU has to go win.
JMU needs to execute, play up to its level of talent, and win the game.
How JMU Can Win
Avoid the slow starts that have plagued JMU on the road, and avoid a negative game script against GJ Kinne’s potent offense.
The formula for avoiding these problems is not secret or complicated. JMU can and should run the ball. First down, second down, third down, fourth down.
In this post, I’ve highlighted some of what makes Texas State such a dangerous opponent. And while all that is true, the Bobcats are yet another team on JMU’s schedule with a lousy run defense – 119th in EPA/rush allowed. They are truly bad at defending first down and can be gashed to set up 2nd & short.
JMU should be able to run the ball all day and connect on play action to keep the defense honest. Make Texas State bring its safeties down into the box, then allow Alonza to show off his arm against 1-on-1 coverage.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Treehouse by Roughhouse Brewing. This is for the road warriors who made the midweek trip to San Marcos – stop by a local brewery in the hill country and enjoy this rustic IPA.
Personally, I’d opt for their Sordid Nature – an 8.8% ABV dark saison that would be the official pick if we were just a little closer to December. As it stands now, Treehouse is a great IPA choice for a late October conference tilt down in Texas.
Official JMUSB Prediction
Texas State 25, JMU 20
Beating the tar out of ODU in the second half was truly wonderful. But as I’ve alluded to, JMU just hasn’t played well on the road during the Chesney era, and this is a 1,000-mile Tuesday road trip against a dangerous, desperate team. Unlike Georgia State and Liberty, Texas State has a real offense that knows how to pass the ball.
Obviously, I hope I’m wrong. But my gut says that JMU won’t complete a full sweep through the Sun Belt this year, and I’ve been highlighting this game to friends and family as the most dangerous of the remaining opponents.
I’ll predict that JMU falls behind early, then plays a good second half that ultimately falls short of a full comeback.
I think it’s time for a little football season reset.
As the calendar flips to October, JMU Football is 3-1 and looking to build on a 1-0 start in conference play. The first stepping stone on that path is this Saturday, when southern Dukes from all over will gather in Atlanta and take over Georgia State’s modest homefield advantage at Center Parc Stadium.
In his media availability on Monday, Bob Chesney was quite complimentary of Georgia State’s roster and talent, as is the norm for coaches these days.
“Look at that roster. Just look at their sizes, look at their speeds, look at their lengths. Look at their bodies” Chesney said. “The teams they’ve played – one of them (Memphis) is one of the best in the Group of 5. The other two [No. 4 Ole Miss and No. 16 Vanderbilt] are just juggernauts. That’s who they’ve played. They played Memphis as tight as anybody all year.”
That’s a nice bit of necessary politicking by Chesney, who knows that a team of 20-year-olds need to be focused on every opponent, every week, and it’s never wise to give the other team locker room material.
As a certified blog boy, I’m under no such obligation, so let’s just be candid about Georgia State. Whatever raw talent they might have on the roster, this is a team that can’t stop much on defense – especially on the ground. They’re 124th in EPA/play allowed, 132nd in defensive success rate, 136th – dead last in FBS – in EPA/rush allowed.
Georgia State is the second straight team from the state of Georgia that’s likely to give up giant yardage totals to JMU’s ground game. With Ayo Adeyi and Jobi Malary expected back this week, the Dukes can name their yardage total. 200? 300? 400? The only variable is how many run plays Dean Kennedy wants to call.
How confident am I about the matchup? For the first time this year, I put JMU in my Week 6 best bets column over at ye old day job. And that point spread ain’t small.
How about next week? Louisiana’s Week 7 trip to the Valley was expected to be a major showdown after the Cajuns were picked to win the Sun Belt West in the preseason.
Instead, Louisiana is 2-3 with losses to Rice and Eastern Michigan. Their game against FCS McNeese was a one-score affair at the start of the fourth quarter, and they needed double overtime to slip past Marshall last weekend. (If you’re an analytics fan, Louisiana ranks 123rd in adjusted EPA/play.)
I wrote in August that the success of the 2025 season could largely hinge on early results against Liberty and Georgia Southern. But like the Cajuns, neither Liberty nor Southern were nearly as good as anticipated. I don’t think anyone wearing purple is sad that the Liberty fans have been silenced, at least in the short term, but the Southern game turned out to be a dud. Clay Helton could be a Hot Seat candidate if they don’t pick up a few wins in the coming weeks.
Instead, with a month of football in the books and a much clearer picture about what the Sun Belt looks like in 2025, there is one game that has become a crucial roadblock this season: Oct. 18 vs. Old Dominion.
After a month of results, it’s become clear that JMU and ODU are the class of the Sun Belt East. Marshall’s championship team transferred to Southern Miss; App State is way down; Coastal Carolina’s glory days are long behind it. Short of widespread injuries or other chaos, one of the Sun Belt’s two Virginia teams should be playing in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
That’s not to say that losses can’t happen elsewhere. After a long period of dominance stretching from 2016 through the end of the Cignetti era, one thing that certain pockets of the JMU fan base sometimes misunderstand is that even a good team can play a bad game – or an unlucky game – against an inferior opponent. It’s an oblong ball; sometimes, it takes funny bounces. Undefeated conference runs are rare.
JMU could lose another home game to a rival like App State. It could lose on Tuesday night in central time to a very good Texas State team. It could lose on the road at Marshall to a Herd team that will have nearly a year of experience by the time it draws JMU.
But Old Dominion is the obstacle this year. James Madison ranks 26th nationally with an opponent-adjusted EPA/play of +0.20. ODU ranks… 27th, at +0.18. No other Sun Belt team is higher than 50th.
JMU must handle business this weekend against Georgia State. It’s the kind of game that a good team should win by quietly executing its game plan. The same goes for next week’s game against Louisiana, and most of the other conference games that JMU will play this year.
But circle Oct. 18 on your calendars now, because that is the game. If JMU wins, it should exit Week 8 still undefeated in conference play, while also dealing a head-to-head loss to its chief rival. If that were to happen, it would be, in effect, a 1.5-game divisional lead over ODU.
So start making your travel plans now. The chief goal this season must be for JMU Football to win its first official Sun Belt title, and the path to do that runs squarely through a Week 8 game against our in-state conference rival.
Oct. 18 is as good a day as any to set a new attendance record.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Liberty (1-2, 0-1 Conference USA)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET, Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA
Weather: 80 and Sunny. If you were hoping for a little late-September breeze, you’d better wait another week for conference play. This one might still be sweaty.
Broadcast: ESPNU
Day Job Numbers: JMU -8.5, ML -325; O/U 46.5
This number has mostly moved toward Liberty throughout the week, leading to a deluge of questions about the line movement flooding my DMs on social media. If you’re interested, I wrote about why I think that’s happening on Thursday night on Twitter.
How We Got Here
As has become common in recent years, JMU football served a two-game appetizer to open the season. In Week 1, the Dukes dismantled old FCS foe Weber State, which made its third trip to Bridgeforth since 2017.
In Week 2, the Dukes played a Friday night game at Louisville, where they acquitted themselves with aplomb despite heavy frustrations on offense. Bob Chesney’s two-quarterback system kept Louisville off-balance early, but the constant shuffling and lack of rhythm eventually stalled out the offense, allowing Louisville the time they needed to connect on a few home run plays and win a competitive game.
The usual cranks appeared after the game, declaring that the staff need to be fired. Back in reality, though, JMU had delivered a quintessential game between a P4 power and a G6 upstart — a close loss filled with promise, but marred by self-inflicted wounds.
Some fans will dwell on what could have been at Louisville. But with a defense that ranks No. 6 nationally in defensive success rate and EPA/rush allowed, it’s clear there are a lot of wins coming in the near future.
As a critical portion of JMU’s schedule gets underway, the ceiling for this season remains quite high. If JMU can stay reasonably healthy and play a middle-of-the-road, opportunistic brand of offense, a 12-1 record capped by a Sun Belt championship is on the table.
Three Things To Know About Liberty
Isn’t It Nice to Reconnect With Old Friends? This week, Liberty helpfully shared some highlights from its last game against JMU — presumably to remind everyone what happens when the Flames play those poor, godless heathens from the public school up north.
If you weren’t around in 2014, Liberty ended a six-game losing streak to JMU when it scored a first-round playoff win in Harrisonburg during Year 1 of the Withers interregnum. This was largely thanks to JMU’s embarrassing inability to get off the field in the fourth quarter. Liberty notched the winning touchdown at the end of a 17-play, 85-yard drive that lasted 11 minutes and change. They vacuumed up an entire quarter of the game with one possession that, I will admit, still haunts my nightmares. It was like losing to evangelical Iowa.
Of course, the problem with a *certain* brand of very online Liberty fan is that they think these two games are remotely related. Perhaps some do not understand the depth of JMU’s program growth between the early 2010s and now. “We got ‘em then, and we’ll get ‘em now!”
It’s like thinking you’re qualified for a Silicon Valley job in 2025 because you knew how to rip tracks off Limewire in 2003.
A Challenging Time for Liberty – Liberty plays in Conference USA, which is quite a lot like a store brand version of the Sun Belt. Both conferences are heavily comprised of former FCS programs, but the difference is that the Sun Belt got the former FCS programs that were actually… you know. Good.
Don’t believe me? Okay. The Sun Belt’s current membership accounts for half of all FCS national championships from 1985 to 2010.
Let’s be kind and say that Conference USA appears to be more focused on growing the game. That’s why they added newcomers like Kennesaw State and Missouri State to an already forgettable lineup of mostly irrelevant programs.
No shade to Western Kentucky, though. Everybody in HBurg loves you guys.
Against this roster of conference nobodies, a well-funded program like Liberty has been quite successful. The quintessential example is 2023, where a good Liberty team whacked nearly all of its conference opponents by double digits. (In a sign of things to come, one of the only teams to give Liberty a real game was KC Keeler’s Sam Houston team, in its first season at the FBS level. Liberty hung on late for a 21-16 win over the Kats.)
Liberty was rewarded for this 13-0 championship season with a Fiesta bowl berth against Oregon at the end of the year — you know, a real team, that’s actually good.
Oregon’s 45-6 win was such a pornographic beatdown that viewership was eventually banned on campus in Lynchburg. Watching the highlights was ruled to be an honor code violation.
That’s all pretext so that I can say this: In recent years, Liberty has typically been a decent team. Good enough to rack up wins in Conference USA, anyway. But around the middle of last year, something started withering inside of this program, and it’s getting uglier by the day.
Liberty fans will probably be the first to tell you that JMU isn’t getting their best punch this weekend. It’ll sound like a lot of excuse-making, but it’s also just true. They’re 3-6 against FBS opponents since Oct. 15 of last year.
New Jersey, Same Potential for Beatdown – Spare a thought for Liberty quarterback Ethan Vasko. This poor kid has spent the last two years getting his brains beaten in by JMU at Coastal Carolina. He transferred out of the conference to join former Coastal head coach, Jamey Chadwell… only to discover JMU is on Liberty’s schedule for 2025. Oof.
Vasko’s 2024 Stats against JMU: 5-for-18 for 84 yards and 1 TD/2 INT. Coastal Carolina lost in Harrisonburg, 39-7.
In 2023, Vasko had a better box score, passing for 254 yards and a score. (He ran in a second touchdown.) But Coastal still got mugged to end the year, losing 56-14 on senior day.
It could be another rough Saturday for Vasko, playing against yet another great JMU defense. The only consolation might be that, regardless of how ugly the game gets, Liberty fans will remain loyal in the stands. After all, if we know one thing about Liberty fans, it’s that they like to watch.
How JMU Can Win
Lead with defense and just run the freaking ball.
Head coach Bob Chesney appears committed to running some version of a 2-Quarterback system, and I don’t think he’s going to change his mind based on anything I write in a blog post. But it’s worth pointing out that Liberty’s run defense has been quite bad so far this season. At +0.16 EPA/rush allowed, advanced analytics currently rate Liberty as one of the 15 worst run defenses in FBS football.
The JMU offense doesn’t need need to find a new identity in this game. It doesn’t even need to lock in on a single quarterback. It just needs to take the short fields and positive positions it’s given by the defense and execute sensible plays. Run it between the tackles. Run QB power. Run bootlegs and play fakes.
JMU does not have to reinvent modern offense with a defense this good. It can completely control this game by terrorizing Vasko (again) and taking advantage of Liberty’s weak front with its excellent group of running backs.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Fog Light Baltic Porter by Three Roads Brewing in Lynchburg. I like to drink locally at regional road games, when possible, and Three Roads is a cool spot with some good pours.
It’s not as available throughout all of Virginia, so you Falls Church folks will probably have to get off your ass and drive a couple hours south before you’ll start to see it bottled in convenience stores and corner marts. Check in places like Charlottesville or Lexington, or even farther south. It’s definitely all over Lynchburg, if you can’t make it to their taproom.
Also: weirdly available in Easton, Maryland, according to their webpage.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 34, Liberty 7. JMU gets off to a slow start on offense, but the talent and competence differential becomes too much for the Flames to overcome by the end of the first half. JMU rolls into conference play at 2-1.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU Dukes (1-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at Louisville Cardinals (1-0, 0-0 ACC)
Kickoff: 7 p.m., L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 79, slight chance of storms (weather delay not out of the question)
Broadcast: ESPN2
Boys in the Desert: JMU +13.5
How We Got Here
Both teams manhandled FCS foes in Week 1. But from a broader perspective, both programs have transformed quite a bit from the 2022 matchup in seemingly positive directions on each side. That 2022 JMU team was the surprise FBS newcomer – plucky, some young talent, but largely still an elite FCS team without a great deal of depth. This was most notable as an injured Todd Centeio basically couldn’t throw that night but was still required to be out there for the offense to operate with any kind of efficiency. This Dukes team is now a full-fledged FBS team on nearly every front for the first time and an evolving G6 power. Louisville was still coached by Scott Satterfield and was still the same mid ACC team they had been for years. While hoops may always be first in the hearts of Cards fans (you’re welcome for Terrance Edwards by the way), under Jeff Brohm, UL and its administration have made an obvious commitment to level up. In case you haven’t noticed, the ACC has essentially become divided into an “committed to being like the P2” teams and “still stuck in Greensboro” teams. Along with Clemson, Florida St., Miami, and SMU, the Cards are clearly in the first group while, notably, the teams JMU has knocked off the last two years are still wondering where the Raycom/Jefferson Pilot guys went.
Three Things to Know About Louisville
This is the best team JMU has played in years – As noted above, UL has chosen to build a program that is super-league ready should that second seismic shift happen at the end of the decade. And make no mistake, while “Louisville” isn’t a “helmet” team with the tradition of even some current conference mates, this team is a large step above the UVA and UNC teams the Dukes have knocked off lately. Those teams had elite talent in spots (i.e. Omarrion Hampton), but they were atrociously coached and generally not serious about winning. This team is built with a modern NIL/General Manager structure, real financial backing, and is developing a legitimate identity of its own under native son Brohm.
QB is the Big Name, but RB is the real star – USC transfer Miller Moss is the headline name for UL this year, but RB Isaac Brown is the real reason the Cards are considered contenders in the ACC and playoff race this year. The brothers Brohm (head coach and OC) are former QB’s and they love to sling it, but they’re also smart enough to realize what a talent they have in Brown. More to come on this, but one of the keys to this game for them seems to be trying to bully the Dukes with the running game.
Sun Belt Stars – Yes, that’s former South Alabama receiver and returner Caullin Lacy all over the field for Louisville. Lacy almost singlehandedly kept South Al in the game with the Dukes in 2023. That game was an almost signature exhibit in the long line of JMU’s former staff’s “turtling” games where conservatism with a lead almost bit them, but Lacy was the star. He seems likely to play a huge role again a few years later, but at least we know Ches and co. likely won’t take their foot off the gas no matter the game situation. And on defense, one of their best players is D-Lineman Clev Lubin, who just arrived from Coastal. Unlike Lacy, Lubin didn’t do a darned thing against JMU last year as the Dukes continued to beat the Chants like a rented mule the same way they have since joining the SBC.
How JMU Can Win
Shootout! Of course we could be horribly wrong (and the weather could factor in), but a slightly less insane version of last year’s game in Chapel Hill seems like the most legitimate road to a dub here. Almost all of the Cards’ questions are on their defense, and in particular in the back end. And JMU’s offense seems as capable and explosive as any ACC team. On the other side, Louisville seems likely to get a few no matter how well the Dukes play on D as their skill guys are exceptional. But we’ll take Barnett in a heartbeat over Moss if things get sloppy given Moss’ tendency to throw it to anyone wearing a helmet on either side.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
It’s Kentucky – you know what’s coming. With a special shoutout to our friend Chris, this is clearly a week that calls for the best beer of all: bourbon! So many options to choose from in this part of the world and we’re not looking to start an argument with any of our bourbon-crazed friends, so we’ll go with something that’s still in the realm of attainability in basically anything from Old Fitzgerald. The standard 7 year will do you right during the game, but should the Dukes pull this off, something from their decanter series (the 11 is ridiculous even if the 17 is out of reach) would be quite the way to celebrate.
Official JMUSB Prediction
Honestly, the hardest one to figure in quite some time. Can’t remember a game since at least the 2016 trip to Fargo (and maybe SMU the year before) where we think the Dukes have both a legitimate chance to win and legitimate chance to get blown out.
Louisville folks suggest they’ve really struggled with running QB’s which could lead us to believe we could see slightly more Sluka. But given the Cards offensive prowess, it just seems tough to see the JMU staff thinking they can do the “shrink the game, try to win a close one” strategy. Plus we know Chesney, Canan, and co’s track record in these “big” games at both Holy Cross and JMU. They’ve been scheming for months on this one and this isn’t the week to leave those things uncalled. Our guess is this is a wild one. And our next guess is most things the Dukes have come up with work! But we also don’t see the Cards contributing to their own demise in the way the uncoached Mack Brown team did last year. In other words, this one’s gonna be nuts. Give us an absolute shootout with a late turnover (maybe a Gobaira tip leading to a Barksdale INT) proving the difference!
JMU 37, Louisville 35
The Basics
Matchup: Weber St. Wildcats (0-0, Big Sky) at JMU Dukes (0-0, Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 6 p.m., Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: Sunny, high 75, low 55. Are you kidding me?! Great anytime, outrageously good for Labor Day.
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -24.5 (also worth noting, attractive lines of JMU +14.5 for next week have already been posted at some outlets)
How We Got Here
Three Things to Know About Weber St.
This does not appear to be the Weber we remember – For a Big Sky team from Ogden, Utah, it’s kind of crazy that JMU and the Wildcats have what could almost be described as a bit of a rivalry having played three times in the last eight years, all in important games. The two playoff wins at Bridgeforth, including the epic JMU comeback in 2017 capped off by the Ratke bomb at the buzzer and what felt like an important game at the time in when the Dukes visited the Beehive State in JMU’s last FCS season in 2021. But Weber hasn’t been the same since losing former Coach Jay Hill to the money cannon in Provo a couple years ago. The Cats have scuffled along at 10-13 the last two years, including a 4-8 record last year (though that did include a win over Montana in Missoula). No disrespect intended (particularly given JMU’s “performance” against Gardner-Webb this time last year) but this team probably isn’t quite the meat-grinder many of us remember from FCS.
Offensive Line is Weber’s Strength – Like most programs in the G6/FCS ranks coming off a couple middling seasons, Weber has lots of turnover all over the roster. But not on the O-Line, where they return basically their entire two-deep from last year, including their best player, senior Gavin Ortega. And with their other preseason all Big-Sky standout being Fullback Colter May, the matchup with JMU’s revamped D-Line should be the one to watch tomorrow.
Semi-Local Leader on Defense – Unsurprisingly, nearly Weber’s entire roster is from out west, with most of their players coming from Utah, Cali, and Texas. But surprisingly, one of their best defensive players is DE Josh Hardy from Bowie, MD. He transferred to Ogden from North Carolina A&T State University (shoutout to the Aggies) for who knows what reasons, but we like to think it’s cause being in a conference led by Joey D is miserable for everyone.
How JMU Can Win
Don’t do Gardner-Webb. Just get off the ball and nail someone. That’s it. No more anxiety, no more brotherhood talk, no more best-shape-of-my-life platitudes. If ‘Zo starts, don’t sail your first three passes over people’s heads. If Sluka starts, don’t even call passing plays till required by down and distance. And no game-planning that is meant for next week’s opponent unless the Dukes really gain control. Respect the opponent, but there is no built-in excuse like the first couple games last year and it’s time to finish what the Dukes started when they first announced the move to the SBC by actually working towards some hardware.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Time in the Sun IPA, Ghost Harbor Brewing, Elizabeth City, NC – Surprising place to find a surprisingly good brew from but needless to say, this one’s aptly named for an August game where JMU is going with a Bridgeforth Beach theme.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 49, Weber St. 7 – In the very modern era of JMU football, when the Dukes were really good, here’s how the home openers went.
2023 – 38-3 over Bucknell
2022 – 44-7 over MTSU
2019 – 44-7 over St. Francis
2017 – 52-10 over ETSU
2016 – 80-7 over Morehead St.
In other words, when they’ve been great, they’ve shown it early against overmatched competition. Let’s ride!
Welcome to Week 1 of the 2025 college football season! James Madison football opens up Year 4 of its spectacular FBS era on Saturday.
The Week 1 punching bag of the moment is former FCS playoff foil Weber State – more on the Wildcats in a minute or two. But before we dive into the traditional Week 1 preview, I thought I’d provide you with some standard throat-clearing about what this season could look like.
Three full years in the Sun Belt is evidently enough for everyone to concede that JMU fields the best program in the conference. JMU received 11 of 14 first-place votes in the Sun Belt East’s preseason poll. And if you’re one for college football betting markets, JMU is a +260 favorite to win the conference – dramatically shorter than the next-closest team, Texas State (+600).
Only one other team in the East is shorter than 10-to-1. That’s Georgia Southern, which plays in Harrisonburg at the end of September.
In the wider national discussion of the College Football Playoff, the Dukes have once again been offseason darlings, often slipping their way into CFP projections as a trendy pick against the preseason status quo of Boise State. (Editor’s Note: Boise State lost its first game of the year on Thursday night.)
I’m a bit skeptical of this widespread coronation. After all, JMU Football lost a ton of talent from last year’s team, which finished the regular season with a respectable 8-4 record. (I wrote more about the broader idea of turnover last week, so feel free to check out that piece below if you missed it.)
The assumption that JMU is a runaway favorite in the face of this heavy turnover is, in my opinion, a bit much. Yet JMU fans are largely optimistic about the roster in spite of its generally unknown status. My hunch is that 2024-to-25 offseason turnover doesn’t feel nearly as dramatic, since the thing that preceded it was the torturous 2023-to-24 levels of offseason turnover. In that case, JMU provided a P4 school with a fully realized playoff-caliber defense & coaching staff, and it all happened in roughly the time it takes to order something from Amazon Prime.
So yes, the 2025 rebuild challenge isn’t that bad. And JMU’s depth of talent appears to be impressive, as Chesney and other media members have frequently alluded to over the past month. But beyond one or two special players, the top level of playmaking talent may be lower than in previous years.
Or, maybe not. Roster projections in 2025 are more impossible than ever.
Either way, we’ll have to see how the roster fares against a Sun Belt that shows a parallel depth of teams, with no other obvious juggernauts at the top. Keep an eye on Southern Miss, who was voted to finish fifth in the West despite inheriting most of the coaching staff and players who won last year’s Sun Belt championship at Marshall. They’re my pick for a Western division champ.
For JMU, the success or failure of this season will largely revolve around two huge, consecutive games. And no, next week’s game against Louisville is not one of them.
The first game is Sept. 20 in Lynchburg. Let’s be frank about the Liberty matchup – many of us don’t like them, and many of them don’t like us. I won’t step on any remarks I might want to make in my Week 4 preview, so I’ll just say this: When this season is over and done, I think we all want to remember a win over this team.
The other game is one week later, when JMU plays its first home game of the year against an FBS opponent. The Sept. 27 conference opener against Georgia Southern should give the winner a clear inside track for the divisional title as calendars flip to October.
JMU can work out the kinks in an ugly game against Weber State, and no one outside of Harrisonburg will remember it a month from now. It can lose to Louisville by four touchdowns in Week 2, and all its goals will still be on the table.
But for the Dukes to have a successful season in 2025, that means winning big games against in-state schools and competing for conference championships. So keep your schedule clear and your cars gassed up in late September, because there aren’t two games bigger than Liberty and Georgia Southern during this year’s regular season. They just happen to be in back-to-back weeks.
The James Madison football team is officially less than two weeks away from its first game of the season. That means it’s that magical time of year where football is increasingly a fixation in the front corner of the brain.
Personally, I got around this by devoting myself to the dark art of sports writing, which means I get to think about defensive subpackages and call it “work.” (On the down side, I made approximately $38 per year for most of my 20s while following this career path, which was less than ideal.)
Welcome back to a fresh season of JMUSB, where the word of the moment is turnover. Some of that is annually scheduled anxiety, since mid-August is around the time I start fixating on things like Bill Connelly’s returning production notes, or the Action Network’s TARP rankings.
This year, JMU fans who are shaking off the roster memory rust will discover that the Dukes bring back some quality depth from the 2024 campaign, but not much in the way of bona fide starters. The defense retains at least some of its core skeleton with Immanuel Bush, Trent Hendrick, and Jacob Thomas, along with starting nickel DJ Barksdale.
The offense will need to rely on even more new faces. Carter Sweazie and Pat McMurtrie are the biggest returners on an offensive line facing real turnover. The wide receiver room is drastically different from last season. Many specialists are gone, too. Quarterback Alonza Barnett remains with the team, as does George Pettaway – the leader of an exceptional running back room for a G5 program.
Tailback is one of the clear strengths of the team, with the ceiling of the ground game ultimately tied to how the offensive line turns out. But if you think Barnett is a lock to start next week, then I’ve got a Sun Belt bridge to sell you. It’s hard to return in one offseason after suffering a serious injury on the final play of the year. Not to overgeneralize, but most coaches wouldn’t add multiple starting quarterbacks from other programs via the transfer portal if they were confident in the Week 1 health of their returning starter.
The swirling mystery at quarterback is mostly representative of the larger picture for JMU’s upcoming 2025 team. A few names ring out, and the ceiling is quite high if everything works out. But overall, with this much uncertainty and player turnover, there’s just no way to know what the team will look like or how good it can be until the Dukes take the field for those first three or four games.
In terms of raw volume of roster turnover, few years will ever compete with the outflow that JMU saw after the great Cignetti departure of 2023. During the 2024 offseason, newly minted FBS coach Bob Chesney had a total of 64 new players for 2024, which is an insane total for a roster that is conventionally capped at 85 scholarship players.
But this year, JMU is quietly working through another hefty offseason of turnover, with roughly 50 new players on campus between freshmen and new transfer arrivals.
The thing that struck me this summer – which I wanted to write about today – is that this is likely the new normal for JMU.
It took less than five years of FBS exposure for the entire college football world to learn what many alumni and fans have known for years: JMU is one of the most well-run, generously funded, and overall top-performing college football programs below the P4 level. And whereas a strong FCS program can often fly below the radar because of its technical classification, a top-line G5 program attracts nonstop attention and tampering. Every year, dozens of programs will be interested in the best coaches, assistants, and playmakers.
And let’s retire any remaining false modesty here – JMU is a top G5 program. According to the college football odds at ye old day job, Harrisonburg’s fourth-year FBS program is a surprisingly large favorite to win the Sun Belt (+280) and has the fifth-best odds of any non-P4 school to make the playoffs.
The new normal in college football is for bigger programs to feed their machine by constantly nibbling off innovators from below. That’s why half the 2023 JMU team is playing in the Big Ten right now; to be fair, it’s also why some of JMU’s positional groups have resembled FCS All-America teams in recent years.
JMU can play some defense against this trend by maintaining a strong culture and highlighting all the strengths that it has as a university. But even then, annual talent bleed is mostly inevitable.
This is the annual weight that JMU will carry, in perpetuity, until Harrisonburg returns to total football irrelevance.
The upshot? At least we get to keep winning most of the games on Saturday afternoon.
It’s not just the players and coaches that have turned over, though. JMU Football – hell, JMU Athletics in general – built to a crescendo in the early 2020s. Decades of strategic planning and smart, well-coordinated leadership delivered incredible on-field results. I mean, if I walked up to you in 2011 and handed you a list of what would happen in the JMU athletic department from 2015-23, many of you would have stroked out and died right there. Or, even worse, let your kids apply to Virginia Tech.
But consider the turnover that’s taken place since the beginning of the 2023 academic year:
- JMU President Jon Alger leaves for American University after more than a decade in the position.
- Athletic Director Jeff Bourne retires after 25 years in his position.
- Senior VP for Finance Charlie King fully retires after 25 years as Senior VP for Finance (and, more recently, part-time government relations advisor and Interim President).
- Head football coach Curt Cignetti departs for Indiana after an 11-win season (large majority of team graduates or transfers out).
- Head men’s basketball coach Mark Byington departs for Vanderbilt after a 30-win season (large majority of team graduates or transfers out).
- Chesney football staff loses Defensive Coordinator Lyle Hemphill, who doubled his salary by rejoining his former boss Mike Elko at Texas A&M.
That is an insane amount of brain drain for a G5 program. And it all basically happened in, like, 18 months!
Every successful athletic program goes through ebbs and flows. It’s inevitable. But the benefit of being a major brand-name program is that the media rights deals and attention economy can spike you back to relevance in a way that’s fast and powerful.
Take a program like Colorado, which had an absolutely dead football program prior to Deion Sanders’ arrival. Many college fans will debate how good Colorado actually is these days, but there’s little doubt that they’ve been a part of the conversation for the last two years.
Don’t hold your breath for a similar celebrity coach treatment of Michael Vick’s Norfolk State team this year. (That’s assuming you even knew he had become the head coach there in the first place.)
In contrast with their P4 brothers, G5 programs simply must rely on the gradual accumulation of wisdom, equity, and culture – often throughout multiple administrations, quarterback rooms, and coaching regimes.
In 2024, JMU was forced to reckon with a total institutional reset. The vision of Bourne, the shrewdness of King, the industrious brilliance of Cignetti and Byington – all that was flushed after a rush of high-level success.
Now, it falls to Chesney, Matt Roan, and Jim Schmidt to carry the torch as the most visible members of JMU Athletics, at least for the time being. And Chesney delivered an admiral result in Year 1, given the headwinds he faced.
But for JMU to return to its high-water marks of the last 10 years – conference titles, national championships, College World Series bids, widespread national acclaim – it’s going to need to restart that uphill climb of strategic planning and institutional vision. And it’s going to have to do that in a more complex environment, where competition is greater and other programs are constantly trying to poach what it has.
I’ll write a bit more about the actual football product before Week 1 begins in earnest next Monday. But until then, for true JMU fans, spare a moment to consider how much harder the next 10 years will be, relative to the last 10 or 15.
JMU climbed the FBS mountain. But maintaining that success in this modern age? That’s arguably going to be even harder. The importance of an engaged fan base has never been higher.
Welcome to bowl season! The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, and at least one of the teams will look pretty familiar. An in-state Indiana affair will pit the former core of JMU football against No. 7 Notre Dame.
As far as brands go, it’s a clash of old-school classic vs. new-age bravado. Some of you are old enough to remember Catholics vs. Convicts; welcome to Catholics vs. Cigs. Notre Dame is a 7.5-point favorite, but I kind of like Indiana to win the game. It feels like Indiana’s defense is well-positioned to stop what the Irish want to do on offense.
Two days before the CFP, the current iteration of James Madison football will play an appetizer game with far lower stakes. As Rob and Todd outlined in their pod preview this week, the expansion of the playoff has further underlined the exhibition status of lower bowl games.
That said… there’s still value in this game! Bowl season offers a chance to get meaningful bonus practices with a young team with a lot of growth ahead of it. These are real reps for remaining players against a quality opponent.
I’m always a little skeptical about overreading the value of a bowl win, but it probably wouldn’t hurt to score a win over a team that just played in the Conference USA championship game. So let’s go bowling, eh?
The Basics
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET, FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, FL
Weather: High 70s and Cloudy
Broadcast: ESPN
Day Job Numbers: JMU -7, ML -275; O/U 51.5
Western Kentucky has some real challenges on the defensive side of the ball, as I’ll talk about later on. But I’m still a little surprised to see JMU giving this much away to WKU, considering the quarterback matchup.
The best bet might be the over – I think both teams will have some success on offense.
How We Got Here
JMU’s 8-4 season carries a lot of room for interpretation. Apologists would say that a clear winning record after such a dramatic offseason marred by catastrophic turnover is a win no matter what. (I tend to be in this camp.)
Critics would point to several circumstances that really water down the impact of that eight-win mark. For instance: JMU’s three FBS opponents from the month of September all eventually fired their coaches. In conference play, the Dukes finished with a middling 4-4 Sun Belt record – the first non-winning conference record since 2013. That season ended with Mickey Matthews’ dismissal.
Regardless of where you might fall on the season evaluation, I think we’d all agree that a 9-4 record with a bowl win over Western Kentucky would be a refreshing pallet cleanser before we all move on to conference play for hoops.
As a bonus, a win against WKU would be the first win of the season against a team that finished with a winning record. For critics, that result could go a long way toward reframing this season as more than a litany of easy wins against bad opponents.
So, Like, Who’s Actually Playing In This Game for JMU?
Bowl season is typically code for opt-outs and transfer portal announcements, but JMU is actually pretty clean on this front. The Dukes are losing starting left tackle Jesse Ramil to Mississippi State. Redshirt freshman Darold DeNgohe, who rotated in as very effective interior DL, is headed to the Big Ten.
Both players flash a lot of potential at their respective positions, which is why they’re transferring up to power conferences.
The bigger impact here is team health. Several players were sidelined down the stretch run for this team, and – as you’ve likely heard – starting quarterback Alonza Barnett was injured at the very end of the Marshall game. He won’t play on Wednesday.
That means the JMU offense will be manned by junior quarterback Billy Atkins, who last saw real action in the infamous 2022 Marshall game. After Todd Centeio suffered a freak injury at the very end of the week, Atkins was pressed into service with no real experience and virtually no practice with the ones during the week. The end result was, understandably, a memorably disastrous offensive performance.
But let’s be fair to Atkins here – that was a situation where virtually no one would succeed, and he’s had the chance to sit and learn for two and a half full seasons since that game. I’m excited for him to get this new opportunity to prove himself.
Three Things to Know About Western Kentucky
Holy Transfer Portal, Batman! If you think JMU has personnel issues for Wednesday’s games, might I invite you into the crossroads outside of Bowling Green, where literal dozens of WKU players have put their name forward into the transfer portal.
Last I saw, there are somewhere around 25 players on the 2024 roster who may not be available for this game. That includes the entire starting defensive line and starting linebacker Darius Thomas. But fans shouldn’t assume that WKU won’t have those players available just because they’re in the portal. In fact, Chesney even told the media that he’s entirely ignoring WKU’s transfer portal status.
“[We should] assume that everyone is playing. To assume anything less would be ridiculous.”
Advantage Under Center – Starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp is one of the many WKU names in the portal, but he has made clear that he’s going to be playing in the bowl game. He’s likely just put his name in the portal to see what kind of offers are out there for a competent sophomore that scored 30 total touchdowns this year. It’s pretty smart on his part.
The fact that Veltkamp is playing gives WKU a pretty clear experience advantage at the quarterback position. In fact, Western Kentucky’s entire starting offense from Week 14 may be available and playing in this game, which means this game will likely orbit around an explosive WKU offense against a stingy JMU defense.
Gorging on the Ground Game – As many JMU voices have already homed in on in recent days, Western Kentucky’s run defense has a pretty pathetic reputation. The Hilltoppers allow 225 rushing yards per game, which is one of the 10 worst marks in FBS.
In Jacksonville State’s dominating C-USA championship performance, the Gamecocks gashed WKU for 386 yards on the ground, good for about seven yards per carry.
Amusingly, this will be the fourth opponent JMU has faced this year that has a bottom-10 rush defense, alongside Georgia State, Charlotte, and Southern Miss. The Dukes averaged 180 rush yards against those opponents, which is actually a bit underwhelming when you consider the per-game aggregate for those defenses is closer to 220.
How JMU Can Win
Commit to running the ball and controlling the clock.
If WKU’s offense really does show up whole, the Hilltoppers are probably going to score some points. JMU can limit the damage and keep its defense in good position by stringing together domineering drives that suck up time and finish in the end zone.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 32, WKU 27. Even with its defensive issues, I absolutely think Western Kentucky could steal this game because of its advantage in the passing game. But conventional wisdom says that a strong ground game is a quarterback’s best friend, and I think Atkins will be handing off a lot in this game.
I’ll take a healthy dose of George Pettaway and Jobi Malary to pace the game and keep the ball out of Veltkamp’s hands just enough for a win.
Boca Helping Hands
Whether you’re heading to Boca Raton or watching from home, please consider a donation to Boca Helping Hands. The fundraiser, which was organized by Rob, is in line with JMUSB’s longstanding tradition of generosity in the communities where JMU plays key away games.
Whether you can give $1 or $100, there is no amount of charity that is too small or insignificant. Let’s continue to spread the spirit of giving that makes the James Madison community so unique!
The Basics
Matchup: JMU at App State
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET, Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC
Weather: Low 40s and Partly Sunny
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -7 , ML -275; O/U 59.5
App State has been up and down this year, and the defense has frequently been lousy. That said, I can’t recommend laying a full touchdown on the road in the hottest and most impactful rivalry game in the Sun Belt East.
How We Got Here
Week 12 was when JMU found itself back in the mix at the top of the Sun Belt.
Count me among those who have called for a more tempered and grounded approach to what is possible in this first season of the Bob Chesney era. At the risk of repeating myself, there is nothing more normal in college football than dropping a couple of sloppy road games after turning over several dozen players and the entire coaching staff.
Yet this JMU team has persevered through those growing pains, and through a little luck, found itself back in position to potentially make its first Sun Belt title game. Last week’s win at Old Dominion, coupled with Georgia Southern’s loss to Troy, leaves the Dukes in a much more realistic position to potentially win the division.
More on this later, but the stakes of this week are very clear. Once again, App State looms as the biggest game of the season.
Three Things to Know About App State
It’s Thriller Time – The history of JMU vs. App State is drama, drama, drama.
Last year, App State won a walkoff in overtime, 26-23, after College GameDay was live from the Quad.
The previous year, App State went up 28-3 but blew a massive lead, Falcons-style, as JMU roared back in the second half to win, 32-28.
Back in FCS-land, App State knocked JMU from the 2007 playoffs, 28-27. The following year, JMU avenged the loss at Bridgeforth with an epic come-from-behind win, 35-32. They won’t even let you into the JMU Oldhead club if you haven’t memorized the highlights from that game.
The point here? When App State and JMU play, expect a barnburner. This year’s 4-5 record means nothing to us.
Judging Appy – There’s been a great deal of brainpower this year devoted to solving whether or not the Mountaineers are good. Since the Liberty game was cancelled in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, App State is 2-3 with home wins over Georgia State and ODU and road losses to Marshall, Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina.
Frankly, there’s a lot of teams in this conference that would beat last-place Georgia State at home and lose to first-place Louisiana and first-place Marshall at their respective stadiums. That doesn’t actually tell us much about where App State lives in the Sun Belt pantheon of greatness. Your mileage may vary.
Frankly, the only thing we can be really sure about is…
The Defense Stinks – Yeah. There’s no sugar-coating it. This is not a vintage App State team, and the main culprit is the defense.
App State ranks sub-100 in Team EPA allowed per play, and the defense is allowing scores on about 94% of red zone trips, which is one of the ten worst marks in FBS.
To my eye, they’re really missing the anchor that Tyrek Funderburk gave them in the defensive backfield last year, and Nate Johnson hasn’t been quite as good at linebacker, among other issues.
While it’s fair to wonder how much the hurricane has complicated this season, allowing 66 points to Clemson and 48 points to South Alabama back in September were probably early warning signs that App State was going to struggle to get off the field this year.
How JMU Can Win
Execute on offense, build an early lead, and let the JMU defense do what it does.
App State has allowed an average of 34 points per game since Sun Belt play started. JMU can take advantage of bad fits and sloppy assignment play to jump in front and force the Mountaineers to play another game from behind.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Officially, I’m recommending Long Leaf IPA this week for a return trip to the high country. For anyone who’s making the trip down to Boone, stop by Appalachian Mountain Brewery to get this excellent 7% American IPA that aims to equal the piney goodness of the local flora.
In the spirit of supporting the Carolinas, I also want to mention a collaboration between AMB and several other North Carolina breweries – Hello From the Holler. It’s a Pale Ale brewed specifically for hurricane relief, with 100% of proceeds going to Helene recovery.
If you’re traveling for the game, grab one and let us know how it is.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 39, App State 30. Alonza continues to look healthy and effective, and the offense cashes in on multiple drives against a suspect defense.
Joey Aguilar and this offense are going to bring it for 60 minutes, and I don’t expect anything short of a close, competitive game. But in the end, I liked a lot of what I saw in Norfolk last week, and I think that continues this weekend in Boone.
Sportsbook Say What?
I was explaining to my wife this week that JMU is in a great position in the Sun Belt East, relative to a month ago. She asked what we still needed to win the conference.
“Well,” I said, “We need to win a big rivalry game on the road at App State this weekend.”
She nodded.
“Then, we need to come home and beat Marshall, who’s currently in first place in the division.”
She looked confused. “That actually sounds pretty hard, though.”
I continued.
“If we do both of those things, and Georgia Southern loses this weekend or next weekend, then we’ll get to play in the championship game – probably against Louisiana, and likely on the road.”
“Wait,” she said. “We have to do all that, just to get the chance to play a third game? That we still have to win? And it’s a road game?”
When you line it up like that, there’s clearly still a lot that can go wrong between now and the first weekend of December. Yet we all felt the seismic nature of Troy’s season-changing win over Georgia Southern last week; from an objective point of view, JMU is clearly in a better position than it was just a few days ago.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the college football futures market, where JMU is suddenly the de facto favorite to win the East and challenge Louisiana for the title.
Those odds are even more interesting when you consider that Louisiana is now likely without starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge for the remainder of the pre-bowl season.
The odds movement is a huge clue that JMU is back to being live to win this thing. Coastal Carolina is an outright favorite to beat Georgia Southern this weekend, and there’s very clearly something wrong in Statesboro right now.
Still, let’s not put the cart before the horse. None of this matters without a win in Boone.
So let’s get down there and find a win, yeah?
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Old Dominion (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, VA
Weather: 65 and Sunny. What a day for football, with 15 days to go before December!
Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU
Day Job Numbers: JMU -2.5, ML -150; O/U 51.5
Some mid-week movement has taken this line from JMU -3.5 to JMU -2.5. Crossing through that key number of three is a notable development that suggests some major bettors like the ODU side of this game.
(For the record, I have this game highlighted in my college football best bets for this week, too.)
How We Got Here
Emerging from its second bye, JMU played a thoroughly ordinary game against last-place Georgia State. It mounted multiple scoring drives in each of the first three quarters and cruised to a 38-7 victory in Week 11.
Three Things to Know About Old Dominion
Don’t Let the Record Fool You – ODU has been frustratingly inconsistent for most of this year, making it a difficult team to predict. I mean, this is a team that held a fourth-quarter lead against South Carolina and then lost to East Carolina at home in back-to-back weeks.
The result is a team that’s in danger of missing bowl eligibility, which perhaps makes ODU look like an easier opponent than it actually is. The schedule included two P4 schools and zero FCS opponents.
Probably true: If JMU and ODU swapped non-conference schedules, it’s very likely that JMU would be the team floating around .500.
So yeah, don’t let that record fool you into a sense of complacency. These teams are tied in the standings for a reason – they are roughly equal opponents this year.
Developing Offense – ODU has really struggled with quarterback play since the days of Taylor Heinicke, but redshirt freshman Colton Joseph seems like a gamer. Since taking over the full-time job in Week 6, Joseph’s effectiveness in the pocket has steadily ticked up. Entering the JMU game, he’s now logged two straight games with 300 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes.
ODU’s midseason turnaround is directly related to the improvement at quarterback, and it’s a particularly dangerous team now that the offense is more balanced and playing complementary football. The blowout win over Georgia Southern was not a fluke.
Turnover Difference – If there’s one big critique of Joseph and the ODU offense, it’s the tendency to put the ball on the ground. ODU has lost six fumbles since the start of Sun Belt play, and those turnovers played a major role in losses at Coastal Carolina and App State.
In the case of the latter, ODU actually outgained App by more than 100 yards in Boone but lost because it was -3 on turnovers for the game.
JMU has had its own issues with offensive execution this year, but one reason the season has been a success so far is that the defense actually leads Division I FBS football in turnover margin with a +18 net gain. Chasing ODU’s turnover tendency and capitalizing on positive field position could be a key point of emphasis this weekend.
How JMU Can Win
Limit mistakes and capitalize on opportunities.
Okay, that probably sounds like I’m auditioning for a free trip to Davos or something. But when JMU has struggled in tough road games this year, it’s because it’s made awful mistakes and/or failed to capitalize on the opportunities created by its ball-hawking defense.
UL Monroe? The game swung on an 80-yard fumble returned for a touchdown where the offense was probably trying to do a little too much.
Georgia Southern? It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a team go +4 in turnover margin and not be anywhere near winning the game.
JMU can win this weekend if it makes fewer, less costly mistakes than ODU. I’m expecting some serious punting, too, so someone better keep Ryan Hanson’s leg warm.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Lunch by Maine Beer Company. An eastward trip to Norfolk calls for a great beer with oceanic roots, and this northeastern take on a West Coast IPA was named after an injured whale. So there’s that.
You can find this on draft all over northern and central Virginia and in many grocery stores and craft beer shops. I just picked some up at Wegman’s earlier this week!
Official JMUSB Prediction
Old Dominion 17, JMU 13. The Dukes are 0-2 in road games since the big Chapel Hill win, and unfortunately, I think we’re going to see the trend continue this weekend against the Monarchs.
As I’ve said, the key here is offensive execution in an unfriendly environment. I think we all know what the ceiling looks like with this team, but the drive-to-drive consistency just hasn’t been there this year – especially against teams with a pulse.
If JMU limits its turnovers and converts on the high-leverage plays, then of course JMU can win. But for now, I’m predicting a rivalry loss that will sting in the short term but serve as another opportunity for growth in the longer term.
