The Basics
Matchup: Coastal Carolina (4-1, 1-0) at JMU (4-1, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
Weather: Typical Valley Fall – cool and clear at night, with temperatures potentially falling into the 40s
Broadcast: ESPN2
Day Job Numbers: JMU -9.5, ML -375; O/U 61.5
Given JMU’s up-and-down nature, a point spread out near -10 for a weeknight game feels a bit hefty. Then again, JMU is a semi-public team at this point that still has a win against UNC on the resume, and Coastal Carolina hasn’t delivered a decisive win since Week 1.
Bonus reading – Earlier this week, I wrote a quick JMU vs. Coastal Carolina betting preview on how to approach the total. You can check that out if that sort of thing interests you.
How We Got Here
After an explosive end to September that had JMU fans riding high, the Dukes dropped from the ranks of the undefeated when it lost its second-ever road Sun Belt game at UL Monroe, 21-19.
In some ways, the loss was unlucky. The Dukes outgained Monroe 399-257, but they also allowed a red zone fumble to be returned 82 yards for a touchdown just before halftime that accounted for a swing of 10-14 points.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, JMU had a postgame winning percentage of 80.3%. For those who don’t attend the holy church of analytics, that essentially means that a team given JMU’s game profile and stats should win about four out of five times. As I said – bad luck.
In other ways, though, JMU absolutely made the bed it had to sleep in. Penalties piled up, including several bad pre-snap errors in critical situations. The Dukes went for it on fourth down five times, with four of the attempts needing four yards or greater. They were 0-for-4 on those attempts. Pressured all night, Alonza Barnett finished the game 20-for-47.
The decision that will probably be remembered most from this outing came late. Trailing 21-19 with 4:04 still on the clock and all three timeouts in pocket, the coaching staff elected to roll the dice with a squib kick against an unconventional ULM kickoff formation. The gamble failed, as ULM recovered the ball at midfield, jamming JMU on field position when it forced a stop and got the ball back.
Instead of needing 20 or 30 yards for a game-winning field goal from Noe Ruelas, the Dukes needed at least 50. It never materialized, and Monroe held on for a narrow win that keeps the Warhawks alone atop the SBC-West standings.
Three Things to Know About Coastal Carolina
Fried Beach Chicken – JMU has utterly smashed Coastal Carolina in two meetings since joining the Sun Belt, outscoring the Chants 103-21.
The timing of those games was important. In 2022, JMU played Coastal in a de facto SBC East title game at the end of the regular season, and the Dukes were motivated to make a statement about how good they really were. In 2023, Coastal was the post-App State punching bag that the Dukes used after losing its undefeated status with College GameDay in town the previous week.
The two-year history may leave the impression for some fans that JMU owns Coastal, and that Thursday’s result is a foregone conclusion. To state the obvious, this is a new team and a new staff. Coastal is a good team and a serious threat to win on Saturday.
No Grayson, No Problem – With former coach Jamey Chadwell leaving for Lynchburg after 2022, and 28th-year quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to NC State this past offseason, you could be forgiven for thinking Coastal might experience a short-term decline.
That just hasn’t been the case. Second-year coach Tim Beck has put together a nice roster for 2024. Sophomore quarterback Ethan Vasko is the leader on offense and ranks 39th in FBS with a QBR of 69.4. The Coastal run game isn’t going to blow anyone away, but the Chants do rank first in the Sun Belt in EPA/dropback. Vasko is young, but he’s a definite player.
Six weeks into the season, JMU and Coastal Carolina look like the two teams that were most clearly underrated in the East. The offense that can execute better on Thursday will likely have the inside track to the Sun Belt title game. This is a bigger game than many JMU fans may realize.
Takeaway Kings – James Madison might lead FBS in takeaways, but Coastal Carolina leads the nation in turnovers returned for a touchdown. The defense has found the end zone at least once in four of five games, including all four of its wins.
On the heels of a game where a defensive score proved quite critical indeed, pay attention to when JMU turns the ball over and how those bonus Coastal possessions end. If the Chants wins, there’s a decent chance they were aided by JMU’s offense.
How JMU Can Win
Shake off the loss and play crisp, explosive offense.
Last week, I talked about the need for composure and consistency, as well as my concern that the offense may have a minor crisis of confidence when something eventually goes wrong. That remains true this week, with a suddenly anxious crowd packing Bridgeforth for another night game on a primary ESPN platform.
JMU’s defense is unlikely to shut down the Coastal offense, which means it’s going to need to score early and often to win. This year, that has generally meant connecting on deep balls and executing on fourth and short. I think greater consistency on third and medium is still pretty important, too.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Bell’s Octoberfest. I am not unaware of the infamous reputation that certain fall beers have amongst the esteemed founders of JMUSB, but if ever there was a time to take a long drag from the autumnal chalice, surely it’s the middle of October.
Obviously, there are a lot of options in this lane, but I like this 5.5% ABV from the always-solid Bells Brewery. You can find it at Total Wine and some Wegmans, among other places.
That said, if you’re in Harrisonburg this Thursday like Rob/Todd/me, leave the Bell’s in the cooler and head to Pale Fire, where you can get their Oktoberfest on draft.
The taproom opens at noon – pretty wonderful, since tailgate lots won’t open until 4:30.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 46, Coastal Carolina 34
Both teams find the end zone over and over, and the Chanticleers’ offense generates more than a few frustrated groans among the JMU faithful. “I thought our defense was better than this,” will be something Bridgeforth fans hear in the stadium on Thursday night.
Ultimately, though, the difference in the game is JMU’s ability to stay on schedule by mixing hard runs and play action, and that gives JMU’s offense the decisive edge.
College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Existential CFP Dread In Week 7 (And Beyond)
JMU is currently receiving zero votes in the AP Poll. If CFP rankings existed right now, we can probably assume the Dukes would be in similar standing there.
The reality of the Monroe loss is that JMU probably needs to deliver a few weeks of quality results to offset the memory of Week 6. Boise State and Navy look like the clear-cut favorites to compete for the G5 playoff berth. The Broncos have the current favorite in BetMGM’s Heisman Trophy odds market, while Navy has the benefit of a home game against Notre Dame at the end of the month.
There’s still a lot of season left, and anything is possible. But as things stand now, JMU’s path to the playoff is convoluted enough that it probably doesn’t merit much consideration.
Let’s check back in a few weeks, when CFP rankings are on the horizon and Navy has played its game against the Fighting Irish.
Yes, it is I: NotRob and NotTodd. After torturing my keyboard for years in service of the Dukes, I shamelessly offered my pen in the JMUSB preview department.
I like writing about sports. I love writing about the Dukes. I’ve said this before in other settings, but I actually give Todd & Rob a lot of credit for that. If you time-traveled back to Harrison Hall, somewhere around 2011, you’d have found me frantically reading JMUSB between WRTC classes and Breeze assignments.
After a restless decade with JMU bylines in HERO Sports, the DNR, the RTD, and several other places, I settled down with a day job at BetMGM. Sure, I don’t get to write about the Dukes too much, but I do get health insurance. Life is about tradeoffs, I guess.
Anyway, I mention that because I’ll probably have one or two bonus insights to share from the perspective of someone who works with odds for a living.
Other than that, JMUSB has always had a wonderful, no-nonsense preview formula, so there’s no need to fix what ain’t broken. Here’s my perspective on Week 6: JMU at UL Monroe.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (4-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at UL Monroe (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT, Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA
Weather: Sunny, 80
Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU after JMU’s demolition job in Chapel Hill
Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O/U 48.5
This number opened at JMU -14.5 and was quickly bet down to JMU -16.5 by the end of Monday. The area between 14 and 17 is generally considered to be dead numbers, so it’s no surprise that the tremendous betting appetite around the Dukes is smashing this from one key number to the next. If you start to see JMU -17 or lower before kickoff, it’s a big sign that pros really like the boys in purple.
How We Got Here
I think the best way to think about September is to imagine it as a two-act play of non-conference games.
Charlotte and Gardner-Webb made up the first half. The coaching staff had dozens of new players to see and understand. They staged tryouts. Some stuff worked. Others didn’t.
Week 3 – the bye week – was the intermission. During that time off, the coaching staff tweaked some character roles, changed the set design, and emphasized how great the second act might be.
The second half – North Carolina and Ball State – delivered a thunderous conclusion on a grand stage. The Chesney staff was extremely prepared for the UNC game, then followed it up with a meticulous, business-like destruction of a bad Ball State team. It’s hard to argue with 133 points of offense in two weeks.
JMU now enters non-conference play in Week 6 as the betting favorite to win the Sun Belt. That’s the value a splashy September can bring, since the Dukes were looking up at App State, Texas State, and Louisiana prior to the start of this season.
Three Things to Know About UL-Monroe
On the Rise – UL Monroe has three winning seasons in its history as an FBS program. Two of them came in the 20th century, prior to moving to I-AA (now FCS) in the 1980s. Historically, Funroe is not actually all that fun.
New head coach Bryant Vincent might put a real dent in that. An SBC-East draw vs. JMU and at Marshall could be tough sledding, and the Warhawks also have to go to Auburn in November. Still, a 3-1 start with wins against Troy and UAB is a pretty nice start for a new coach at a program which is historically a dead end.
This is not the walkover that many JMU fans (including me) thought it might be in the summer. Don’t be surprised if the Warhawks make their first bowl game since 2012.
A Step Up On Defense – It feels a bit weird to say this, but I am expecting UL Monroe’s defense to challenge JMU more than its recent opponents have. Yes, I am including UNC in that assessment.
I find Parker Fleming’s College Football Insiders to be a helpful tool in scouting the general neighborhood for opponents. There are 134 teams currently in FBS, and Ball State ranks 134th in defensive EPA/play. UNC ranks in the middle of the pack, but by Mack Brown’s own admission, he did a poor job scouting and preparing the team for JMU.
Monroe ranks in the same neighborhood as UNC and will have the benefit of watching a month of tendencies on film. In two games against other G5 programs like Troy and UAB, it has allowed 15 total points. I think JMU’s offense is clearly better than Troy and UAB, but probably not eight full touchdowns better.
Because of the scheme, personnel, and game circumstances, I think Monroe’s defense will be JMU’s toughest offensive challenge to date.
An Opportunistic Offense – The Monroe offense is… well, let’s call it a work in progress. Effective quarterback play is a big problem.
In terms of total yardage, Monroe had barely 100 yards against Texas and was outgained by Troy in a close win. The Warhawks beat UAB last month, 32-6, yet somehow had only 37 more yards of total offense. That’s kind of incredible.
Monroe pulls this off because it relies on a field position game driven by its defense. In a brave new world of analytics and fourth down risk, the Warhawks will drives short fields, then run Max Larson out to kick field goals.
That will create an interesting contrast with JMU, since the Dukes arguably have the better field goal kicker in Noe Ruelas but are far more aggressive in fourth down situations. The Dukes may elect to play more conservatively and take the points in a muggy road game; alternatively, Monroe may feel like it may need to be more aggressive on fourth down to keep up with JMU’s offense.
How JMU Can Win
This is a rare game where I think special teams may take center stage. Monroe’s modus operandi is winning via field position, but that’s difficult to do against a JMU team with elite punting and kicking talent.
JMU can pin Monroe’s one-dimensional offense against its own end zone, then win with short fields of its own.
I think this is also a game where composure and consistency will be incredibly important. One week ago, JMU played a magnificent offensive game, supported by a dreadful opposing defense. Two weeks ago, it played a magical game against an ACC opponent where virtually every single high-leverage play went JMU’s way.
This is a natural letdown spot where the offense will almost certainly experience some regression. Alonza Barnett has been incredible over the last two weeks; he’s also a sophomore with five career starts, and one of them was 13 months ago.
If JMU turns the ball over, or has a string of several empty possessions in a row, it’ll be important for the team to keep the faith through that eventual, inevitable hardship. I have a lot of faith in the leadership of this coaching staff.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Urban South’s Paradise Park. I will be the first to admit the OG JMUSB boys can run circles around me in the craft beer department, especially when we get into the nichier spaces.
Caveats aside, I’m hunting for Louisiana beer this week, where I’m partial to Urban South’s Coop’d Up Farmhouse Ale. But if that proves hard to find, Paradise Park is more widely available and is a 4.5% ABV for all seasons.
That’ll be handy for Dukes of all locations – whether you’re on the back porch in good ol’ VA or sweating through a Louisiana tailgate that might still touch 90 during the day.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 26, UL Monroe 13
It might be an unpopular opinion right now, but I don’t think JMU will score 60+ points in every remaining game this season.
Going on the road to play an unfamiliar conference opponent, several hundred miles away and in a different time zone, is traditionally a difficult thing to do. I watched Bryant Vincent’s media availability this week, and he made several overtures to pack the stands. The coaching staff understands the program-building opportunity that is in front of them this week with JMU in town. I expect the Dukes will get their best punch.
A night game in Louisiana is probably going to deliver frustrating moments for JMU fans. I do think this game will be competitive. Ultimately, I think the potential for big plays on offense is a major separator between these two teams. Barring a 2018-esque avalanche of turnovers, JMU should escape its first conference trip to Louisiana with a win.
College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Manically Tracking The Many Public Enemies of Harrisonburg In Week 6
Syracuse at UNLV (Friday, FS1, 9 p.m. ET) – UNLV is currently ranked and undefeated, so they’re certainly relevant to the CFP discussion. However, sportsbooks aren’t taking them too seriously as a playoff threat, for whatever that’s worth.
Regardless, a third game against a P4 opponent is something we should carefully watch, as I don’t think the Orange are getting a ton of respect here. They’re clearly capable of winning this game.
Navy at Air Force (Saturday, CBS, 12 p.m. ET) – If you haven’t watched Navy yet, give them a screen on an open weekend where you’re not tied down. They’re really good this year, with a quarterback who actually throws the ball! Like, throws it well! Blake Horvath currently leads all FBS quarterbacks in Total QBR, and Navy gets a home game against Notre Dame. The Middies should be taken very seriously as a CFP threat.
Unfortunately, Air Force is very bad this year, so I wouldn’t hold your breath on this one.
Utah State at Boise State (Saturday, FS2, 7 p.m. ET) – Boise State is the big favorite to make the CFP right now, at least according to odds markets. I’m skeptical they’re going to get through a pretty good Mountain West without at least one conference loss, but I don’t think dreadful Utah State will be the one to deliver the potential knockout punch.
This is another one where you can safely assume Boise will live to fight another day.
Florida International at Liberty (Tuesday, CBS Sports Net, 7 p.m.) – Because our neighbors to the south play in a Mickey Mouse conference desperate for fresh meat and TV exposure, they’ll play 100% of their October contests on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Technically, this is a Week 7 game, but since it’s also only 96 hours away, let’s include it here anyway.
Liberty fans love to defend their Charmin-soft strength of schedule, but even they seemed to know the potential damage of losing the App State roadie from their 2024 lineup of opponents. I remain skeptical the all-important poll voters will put Liberty ahead of other qualifying G5 teams in the polls without total and absolute carnage.
That’s especially true this year – not just because of the lingering effects of last year’s Fiesta Bowl blowout, but also because this Liberty team just hasn’t been dominant like last year. The Flames have started game slowly and lethargically, even against bad teams. Given the game script against Mike Houston’s boys a couple weeks ago, it seems pretty unlikely that Liberty would have come back at all if ECU’s future NFL corner hadn’t torn his ACL a couple days earlier in practice.
So that’s what I’m looking for on Tuesday, moreso than the result. FIU lost to Monmouth a couple weeks ago, so this is yet another instance where a JMU-friendly upset looks pretty unlikely. Still, with Liberty sitting idle for about 17 days, and a tendency for sluggishness, the first half of this game could be pretty interesting.
Quick Note from JMUSB HQ
Sorry to inform you but we’re back baby, and we’re going to have a very special surprise poster doing these most weeks starting with next week’s Sun Belt opener at ULM. But just to get us back in the swing, us old guys are doing the first one this season for fun. Maybe nobody reads these, but the three of us enjoy the writing exercise and how it makes us really think about the upcoming game and where we are at a given moment in JMU’s meteoric rise. And occassionally, we might get to publish something that makes us swell with purple pride like this bit last year.
The Basics
Matchup: Ball State Cardinals (1-2, 0-1 MAC) at JMU Dukes (3-0, 0-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium, The Valley
Weather: Partly Cloudy, humid, 77
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -20, O/U 56.5, ML -1200
How We Got Here
A 13-6 nailbiter against FCS Gardner-Webb that the Dukes trailed 3-0 at the half followed by hanging 70 on UNC is truly an insane swing. Ball St. is 1-2, beating a good local-ish FCS team in Missouri St. in their opener before losing to Miami (FL) in their P4 game and narrowly dropping their MAC opener on the road at Central Michigan last week.
How Ball St. Can Win
Slow the Dukes down enough early to put doubt back in the home team. The last two games have been the most divergent from each other from any two we’ve ever seen from JMU. We’re bullish on the Dukes but the way for Ball St. to make this a game is to take the crowd out like in the opener and make enough plays to not let JMU back in it. The Cardinals are legitmately capable offensively – scoring 42 in their opener, moving the ball decently despite getting crushed by Miami in Week 2, and then dropping a shootout 37-34 on the road last week at CMU. In other words, they’re averaging more than 25 points per game despite getting shutout.
On the other hand, the defense is “limited” in terms of athleticism and has given up 34 to FCS Missouri St., 62 to the Canes, and 37 last week. In other words, while they need to emulate Gardner-Webb’s taking out of the crowd, if the Cards are gonna win it sure seems like they’ll need to do it by outscoring the Dukes rather than a slopfest the Bulldogs turned that Week 2 game into.
How JMU Can Win
Start fast and hit a few big plays. It’s really that simple. Sure, we’d love to see progress defensively after a hard-to-interpret performance in Chapel Hill last week. But Ball St. has show almost zero ability to slow anyone down and if the Dukes can hit a couple of what are rapidly becoming their signature big plays early, this should get as ugly as that trip to Coral Gables.
Notes and Updates
Felt like the Dukes had played the Cards before, and sure enough, the FCS Dukes lost back in 1997 in Muncie, Indiana. Couldn’t figure out if our pal Greg Maddox was QB1 that day though.
Ayo Adeyi not listed on the two-deep. He warmed up and then went to the locker room visibly frustrated last week so hopefully he can heal up soon. Still no Tyshawn Wyatt. On the positive side, Taji Hudson listed as a starter this week after playing a bit last week and getting a target – that should boost the offensive firepower!
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Mythos. Your boy got to travel and try a few crazy beers in France and Greece this summer, but the one you can both a) find stateside and b) makes for a great early tailgate beer is one of the Greek OG’s – Mythos. Go to Total Wine in that weird part of the international aisle and find this Miller Lite but more flavor staple.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 45, Ball St. 17
After adjusting to the new team, new staff, and new schemes, our bet is the Dukes are a lot closer to the team we saw last at UNC than the team that sputtered in the home opener. All the breaks won’t go quite as insanley in their favor as last week, but JMU is going to shred the Cards defense and run away with this one. The hype will begin building again heading to Monroe for the SBC opener.
Playoffs?! Darn Right We’re Talking Playoffs
Coaches and Players can choose to avoid this topic. Us fans, we’re gonna have fun it with until we can’t. Until the Dukes are eliminated through losses, we’re noting a few games we’d urge fans to keep an eye on. The BIG one this week is late night out west on the blue turf. JMU fans should root for the following (or at least note the result in games between two competitors for the G5 slot).
Wazzu over Boise St. (FS1 10 p.m.) – Wazzu and Oregon St. are NOT eligible for the CFP except as at-larges, which is extremely unlikely unless Wazzu goes undefeated (which would be extremely cool and not effect the G5 slot) so we’re rooting for the Cougs.
App St. over Liberty (3:30 p.m. ESPN+) – Undefeated Dukes would be ahead of undefeated Flames, but it would be better for everyone else in the G5 to end the Liberty farce right now and avoid the need to go undefeated (JMU still might have to be perfect in a down SBC, but a one-loss MWC champ would have a case).
Fresno St. at UNLV (3:30 p.m. FS1) – Not really sure who to root for here but worth keeping an eye on. Fresno has a good loss to Michigan but is probably the better team long-term so either result works.
A Note from Rob and Todd
Well this is a special one. November 2009. That’s when we went to GoDaddy (then with Danica ads!) and paid a few bucks for a domain name and a site. Our memory is a little fuzzy after that but JMU was about to play Towson in the last game of the season. They had just beaten UMass for a third straight win to get back to 5-5 after a dismal start to that year. JMU would blow out the Tigers like usual to clinch nearly a decade of not having a losing record, something that felt like a mere consolation prize given they’d long since been eliminated from 1-AA playoff contention that year. Pressure wasn’t even truly builidng on Mickey yet given the run they’d been on from ’04-’08. At the time, we were questioning whether starting the site at the end of a football season was even a good idea and thinking maybe we should wait till next year. Thankfully we didn’t wait. Except for Justin and Swag and Michael, we didn’t have anyone reading and it gave us eight months or so to learn a bit about what we were doing. Our worries were whether basketball could ever be good again, whether our friend coaching the field hockey team would keep things rolling, what ODU starting football would mean for the CAA, and how much beer content was appropriate for the “blog.”
Here are some things we never even considered for a single second: That JMU sports would turn into a bona fide rocket ship. That podcasts would exist. That we would most do that instead of this someday. That we’d still be doing this nonsense heading into 2024 (we didn’t even consider 2024 as something that would happen ha). And that three days before Christmas in 2023 JMU would be ranked in the AP Poll in both football and basketball and we would be writing a preview for a friggin’ bowl game in Texas against Air Force!
Thanks to all of you for sharing a small bit of your lives with us over these last 14 years! We love you and hope y’all have a wonderful holiday week!
We’re also gonna re-run the incredible guest piece from current JMU student Annalee Hunniford all about Gameday week from the student perspective. If you missed it back during Coastal week, you should read it as she wrote the kind of raw, unfiltered good shit we used to aim for but have slowly mellowed away from without even realizing it. When she reached out we were skeptical for a moment. But then we read it! And holy hell did it make us proud to be Dukes and so reassured about everything we’ve been saying on the pod about how these students are going to be an entirely different breed of JMU fan than anything prior to about 2015. Students now are fans from Day One and they bleed purple without any hesitation about hanging onto whatever shade of orange that may have been hanging in their childhood homes. Hope you love it as much as we did and enormous thanks to Annalee!
The Basics
Matchup: #24 JMU Dukes (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) at Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EST, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Weather: 62, cloudy
Broadcast: ABC (!)
Boys in the Desert: JMU -2, O/U 40.5 (hoo boy that’s a service academy number)
How We Got Here
Both of these teams spent a few weeks this season as America’s darling. The Falcons started 8-0 and were the highest ranked G5 team headed into what was supposed to be a coronation week when they would trounce Army and lock up the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Whoops. An injured QB and an avalanche of turnovers in a devastating home loss sent their season into a tailspin from which they never recovered – ending the year with four straight losses. But Air Force appears to have their starting QB, Zac Larrrier, back for this game and seem primed for a better performance.
After Air Force’s loss, the Dukes moved into that “G5 darling” status for a few weeks until their own devastating loss and the subsequent upheaval of a coaching change and tons of players jumping in the portal. But thankfully most of those guys stayed committed to their teammates and completing the first bowl season in JMU history and the two-deep roster for tomorrow looks pretty solid all things considered.
How Air Force Can Win
Do not turn the ball over and get off the field on third down defensively. Air Force’s offense has never been the true triple option like their rivals at the other academies. They’ve always had more big-play potential (essential in the MWC) but they still win with precision execution and by limiting their opponents number of possesssions. But when they turn it over – thus giving extra possessions to offenses – its a killer. It’s always a bit simplistic to say a game will be determined by one or two things but when an academy is involved – it often is this straightforward. We expect a couple trick plays for sure from both teams given the extra prep time for this game, but otherwise this game seems predictable. If each team has only 7 or 8 possessions (think NDSU) and Air Force wins the turnover battle, they’ll be in great shape. If things get rolling offensively, it’ll be a different story.
How JMU Can Win
Get off the field on third down. The Falcons’ system is designed to hit an occassional big play, but it’s best asset is how often it gets them into 3rd and short. Our guess is the vaunted JMU run defense is going see a whole bunch of 3rd and 2 situations and so much of this game is going to come down to making a stop in these situations. The Dukes have struggled to find pass rush a bit since Jalen Green’s injury but that actually may not be as big of a deal in this one. And Kamara opting out doesn’t help. But given all three big boys inside (Carp, Tucker, and Bush) are good to go and the portaled LB’s (Fisher and JWalk) both are playing, there’s no reason to think JMU can’t be a reasonable facsimile of the stout rush defense they played all year. We’d also expect to see a whole lot of Reimenenq, Chukweneke, and Meehan in the box to bolster the run stopping as well.
Offensively the Dukes baseline goal needs to be to avoid three and outs. Air Force will inevitably go on a eight-minute drive at some point and the offense absolutely cannot afford to push the defense right back out there time and again. JMU will want to bust out some big/trick plays at some points, but picking their spots is critical.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Hardywood Kentucky Christmas Morning. It tough to drink these ABV monsters with coffee in them very often. We love ’em but the caffeine is often a non-starter in the evening. But it’s Christmas and let’s be honest, we’re all eating and drinking too much and sleeping odd hours and generally having a marvelous time treating our bodies terribly the next week so if there’s ever a time for an imperial milk stout with all the fixings it’s definitely mid-afternoon on December 23rd.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 24, Air Force 23 – a late touchdown from Taji Hudson for the win!
Special Student Retrospective on All the Incredible Things From Gameday Week by Annalee Hunniford (Class of 2025)
Hello fellow dukes and friends!
My name is Annalee and i am a Junior here at JMU. It’s currently thanksgiving break
and i just got my wisdom teeth out yesterday, so please excuse any run on sentences
and random prose.
a quick intro
last Wednesday during my evening class, my professor was talking about an old
Harrisonburg bar called the “Highlawn Pavilion”. the glory in which he described this bar
peaked my interest because in 2023, the Harrisonburg bar scene is absolutely nothing
to write home about. therefore, i obviously had to google this bar, which landed me here
at Rob & Todd’s blog, on a guest article written about “the best short lived Harrionburg
bars”. i spent the better part of the 2 1/2 hour class reading their blog and imagining the
savory Harrisonburg social scene that i never got to experience. things are quite
different these days it seems; the bar scene is small and strict and the frat parties and
tailgates usually don’t last more than a few hours before getting busted. regardless, i
still have the time of my life every weekend. JMU is the BEST school and i will die on
that hill. BUT I DIGRESS… i come from an SEC family, so little ol’ freshman annalee
was determined to make the most of CAA sports, regardless of the “commie” vibes they
gave off. Fall semester of 2021, i was one of the only lunatic freshman standing at the
front of the basketball arena’s student section screaming and holding a sign depicting
“FUCK THE CAA”. you could catch me at every sporting event in head to toe purple,
carrying some random sign i scribbled in my dorm room. when JMU switched to the
SBC, that’s when things REALLY started to get good. as a then sophomore, i had more
freedom; a car, a job, an apartment with a tv….and the money to buy espn+ so i could
indulge in all the JMU Sports i wanted. thus began the mass frenzy of students and
commentators bugging the N*AA to LET US BOWL!
the calm before the storm
flash forward to November 2023. i don’t think i can put into words the excitement
coursing through the student body’s veins when we heard ESPN College Gameday was
coming to Harrisonburg. when the news broke across social media, my roommates and
i were shrieking in our living room; their enthusiasm stemmed from the impending arrival
of the Jonas Brothers, while mine was fueled by the anticipation of College GameDay
spotlighting our team as we prepared to whoop up on some ‘neers (or so i believed).
the only thing i’d kept from an ex-boyfriend during my freshman year was a 2017
College Gameday shirt from the last time ESPN graced JMU. i whipped that thing out
and strutted around campus while everyone asked me where they could get one. you
see, the excitement level was unparalleled because this recognition doesn’t happen to
us Dukes. until this year, we were overlooked by mainstream sports media. the
university’s stringent administration and local PD leave little room for revelry, and school
spirit suffers when students routinely leave games at halftime. when the news hit that
College Gameday was headed to Harrisonburg, all hell broke loose in the best way
possible. at the Pat McAfee show on Friday, Coach Curt Cignetti ignited a collective fire
within us as he vociferously criticized the NCAA for denying us a bowl game. perched
atop my tall friend’s shoulders, the crowd and i chanted “TALK YO SHIT” at Cignetti, a
slogan which i later made into my gameday sign. Pat in his sleeveless JMU Football
tank top was the most attractive and energetic motivator of school spirit we’ve seen yet.
that dude is something else!
GAMEDAY
my business fraternity friends and i decided we were going to host a 4am “marty”
(morning party) on Saturday. half of us camped out on the quad Friday night in hopes of
getting a spot in the pit, while the other half opted for an early bedtime, popping
melatonin at 7pm (myself included). the plan was simple; get to the party by 4am, rage
our faces off, then walk to the quad by 6am. my mom thinks i’m crazy, but this is the shit
i live for. after all, when else would it be socially acceptable to indulge in vodka
monsters at 4am?
when my alarm went off at 2:45am, i was UP & AT ‘EM. win or lose, the student
body was dedicated on that fine saturday morning. i was astounded at the marty’s
turnout. every Duke in town, past and current, was up and ready to fucking rumble.
even those unfamiliar with or uninterested in college football found themselves in town,
swept up in the infectious excitement ahh, there was an unmistakable energy
permeating the air this weekend.
picture this: it’s 4am and our downtown house is packed full of dukes, hokies,
hoos, and anyone who made the trip down 81 (because, at JMU, hospitality is our forte).
if there’s one thing i’ve learned from our less-than-ideal streak of 12pm kickoff regular
season games, it’s that in order to get people to show up before 9am, someone has got
to take one for the team and pick everyone up. so there i was, cruising down devon lane
in my soccer-mom Honda CRV at 3:45am, picking up anyone who was ready. one of
my friends hopped in the car sporting bloodshot eyes courtesy of yakking from a 3am
empty stomach tequila shot (i never claimed we were the brightest bunch). to my
satisfaction, the box of pancakes i had meticulously prepared the night before was
devoured within 30 minutes of my arrival. those pancakes were my feeble attempt to
ward off the fraternity’s inevitable 4am puking-from-drinking-on-an-empty-stomach.
there ain’t nothin’ more degenerate than blasting house music and being able to
stomach vodka and pancakes at 4am!
by 6am, the “marty” crowd had stumbled down to the quad. my white heeled
cowboy boots were stuffed with airplane bottles of pinnacle vodka, and we ripped one
last shot before bounding out the door. the dimly lit streets were aglow with people
adorned in all kinds of purple and gold. the quad transformed into an organized
madhouse of 26,000 people; a sight so beautiful and American that i shed a tear. having
attended nearly every sporting event at JMU over the past two years, i can attest that
nothing compared to the school spirit and infectious excitement that must’ve been
blowing through ESPN’s quad speakers. i pondered how the morning would go—would
the school and local PD let us revel in our fun, or would they clamp down as they often
do, in fear of the early 2000’s springfest riots surfacing again? as the sun started to rise,
it became evident that this crowd of dukes was going to stay planted on the quad until
tailgate time. i was both delighted yet surprised by how well everyone behaved, even
with hours of liquor in our systems.
my group and i secured a spot on the famed “kissing rock”, with an eye-level
view of the quad in all its morning glory. the rock lived up to its name when, at 7am, i
glanced over and saw my roommate unsteadily macking on some dude (isn’t that a bad
omen, to kiss on the kissing rocks? someone verify or deny in the comments please).
embracing my inner wannabe celebrity, i vlogged the whole morning and time stamped
each update. by 9am, the crowd was ROARING, prompting ESPN officials to declare it
the most spirited Gameday crowd they’d seen in years. when JMU wants to show out,
we show OUT! College Gameday encourages crowds to make and bring signs to hold
up in the background of the show. at JMU, the signs being held up depicted a wild array
of opinions, colors, and choice-words for the NCAA. to an outsider uneducated on
college football, witnessing the crowd might have suggested that JMU was playing a
team named “NCAA,” given the way the signs shit them. some of the best signs i saw, i
can’t even repeat here. the Jonas Brothers and Bailey Zimmerman took the stage
around 9am, performing just one song—a bit of a letdown, but i don’t think anyone was
there solely for their performance. personally, i would’ve been content with a local DJ
spinning hits all morning; the music wasn’t the primary motivation for this spirited crowd.
as game time drew near, the chants got louder. App State was going to hear
from us dukes, win or lose! on that beautiful Saturday morning, 26,000 diverse
individuals shared one commonality: we all bled purple. i’ve never seen JMU exude
such spirit, and while i’d like to believe it will happen again, we did break the Gameday
attendance record, so probably not. it was the most fun i’ve had in college thus far and
these memories will stay with me for life. i now understand the way my dad raves about
his alma mater’s football games and why i grew up in those colors. my future kids will
likely emerge from the womb wearing purple and gold. i’m not a writing major so i don’t
really know how to wrap this amateur article up, but i’ll leave you with a saying: ALL WE
MUST COMPLETE IN LIFE IS DEATH, TAXES, AND DUKES. IT’S ROLL DUKES
UNTIL I FUCKING DIE, BABY. my face hurts now from the wisdom being extracted out
of my teeth, and with that, goodnight.
The Dukes have been through this before and we’ll go through it again. Being a coaching factory is stressful, but it means you’re winning. A lot. But here’s a snapshot of what the last four JMU coaches have done:
Mickey – Built the program, won the first Natty
Withers – modernized recruiting and fundraising; First Gameday
Houston – Won the second Natty. Locked the Gates! Second Gameday
Cignetti – 52-9, 19-4 in FBS transition, Third Gameday
The next coach has a program and a university that’s in an entirely different place than it ever was during any of those previous hiring cycles. So here’s an initial list of candidates, with notes but in no particular order (other than the categories themselves), to win the first official Sun Belt title and take the Dukes to the playoff!
Serious Internal JMU Candidates
These guys should be serious candidates and are potential coaching stars. They would likely stablize the current underclassmen and recruits. Is that worth it long-term if you’re unsure on any of them as the head of the snake? Would they rather be a HC than go for $ w/ CC?
Tino Sunseri – seems like a star candidate, ‘cruitin’, QB whisperer
Bryant Haynes – recruiting and D scheme, would need OC
Mike Shanahan – scheme great, not certain where he is on ‘cruitin’
Legitimate External Candidates
All of these should be taken seriously and have to be on any “long-list.” Question here is can/will JMU afford them and will they take a chance without a boss since Bourne is leaving? JMU offered to make Cignetti the highest paid coach in the Sun Belt and increase the salary pool for assistants. If JMU is serious, that should be enough for most of these guys.
Rich Rodriguez – HC Jax St., enormous track record, recruits this part of the country now
Chuck Martin – HC Miami, Oh – solid prospect, probably a better job but could we
actually pay him more than currently making?
Ja’Juan Seider – PSU RB Coach – absolute beast recruiter in the Franklin mold, should be on all
short lists
Joe Harasymiak – Rutgers DC, former Maine HC – Probably one of our favorite candidates in terms of skill
(we know he can flat-out coach from Maine days), age, and potentially wanting the job
Jerry Mack – Tennessee RB Coach, former North Carolina Central Head Coach – HC experience and
recruiting prowess that took him to Tenn.
Drew Mehringer – Oregon TE Coach – former JMU assistant under Withers, offensive guru,
young, ‘cruitin’
Tony Gibson – NC State DC – Incredibly exciting prospect, does he want to be a HC now?
Josh Gattis – Maryland OC – local recruiter, good coach, is his agent planting his name though?
Manny Diaz – PSU DC – definitely just wants to coach again. Great recruiter, will make Cig’s game mgmt look incredible though.
Trendy FCS Names
Getting players up from FCS with something to prove has been a great plan the last two years. Could it work with a Coach or does it end up like ECU?
Bob Chesney – Holy Cross HC
Clay Hendrix – Furman HC
Willie Simmons – FAMU HC
Fringier External Candidates
Alex Atkins – FSU OC – arguably #1 choice (recruiting, creativity, etc.) but makes way more
already and could be positioned for a bigger job next year.
Jerry Kill – HC New Mexico St., former HC App, poor man’s RichRod, gotta peek under the
hood, obviously has recruited the area and would piss off App sooo much!
Bobby Hauck – Montana HC – proven great coach, baggage
The Lunatic Fringe
Someone will bring them up; they would be shocking for JMU
Dana Holgerson
Both Grudens
Other JMU-ties Candidates
These guys are all going to be mentioned by JMU fans and boosters who know them and have an opinion. We mostly do not share those opinions.
Scott Lemm – HC Bridgewater, successful HC experience, bleeds purple, can he recruit at this level? Could another new guy convince him to come be OC/OLine/etc. first? Lots of other Dukes on his staff now/past
John Miller – JMU RB coach, time at Texas for ‘cruitin’
Justin Rascati – Vikings Assistant OLine, was Chattanooga OC so has been in college
John DeFilippo – USFL New Orleans Breakers HC; has been interested before; never recruited
DeLane Fitzgerald – HC, Southern Utah (FCS), former Frostburg St. HC
Blaine Stewart – Tight Ends Coach, WVU
D.J. Bryant – Penn St. Recruiting Coordinator
Dudzik, Schor, Hawkins are all starting out in the business
Stinespring – Roanoke College HC, for the 100th time, no.
Mike Houston – results speak for themselves, particularly once forced to build a roster
Our Personal and Early Uneducated Favorites
- Shanahan and/or Haynes and/or Sunseri
- Harisymiak, Gibson, Mack, RichRod
Quick Note from JMUSB HQ
We not only have the usual preview, but we’re thrilled to present a guest piece from current JMU student Annalee Hunniford all about last week from the student perspective. She wrote the kind of raw, unfiltered good shit we used to aim for but have slowly mellowed away from without even realizing it. When she reached out we were skeptical for a moment. But then we read it! And holy hell did it make us proud to be Dukes and so reassured about everything we’ve been saying on the pod about how these students are going to be an entirely different breed of JMU fan than anything prior to about 2015. Students now are fans from Day One and they bleed purple without any hesitation about hanging onto whatever shade of orange that may have been hanging in their childhood homes. Hope you love it as much as we did and enormous thanks to Annalee!
The Basics
Matchup: #24 JMU Dukes (10-1, 6-1 Sun Belt) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-4, 5-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EST, Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina
Weather: 66, partly cloudy
Broadcast: ESPN2
Boys in the Desert: JMU -9, O/U 50.5
How We Got Here
JMU suffered the most heartbreaking regular season loss in program history last week and has spent the week with everyone from university leadership to fans like us handling it with the the maturity of a worn-out toddler being told to go to bed. Before the OT-winning TD, JMU was rolling through a dream season and regardless of postseason outcomes, it’s beyond frustrating to forget about all that greatness ON THE FIELD despite terrible rules outside our control or horrendously handled PR from our inside the house.
Coastal got beat into submission last week by an Army team that made a surprise return to the full triple option. But taking a closer look at Coastal, they’ve had a deceptively good year despite being without Grayson McCall for the latter half. With last week’s exception, their losses came early. At UCLA was understandable and the losses to the two SBC Georgia teams JMU stomped were also back when those teams knew how to play football. Before the loss at West Point, the Chants had won five straight SBC games @App, @Ark St., vs. Marshall, @ODU, and vs. Texas St. – all solid opponents and good wins. After McCall left the App game injured, they won the other four with two different QBs and generally have been solid in all phases.
How Coastal Can Win
One thing that seems obvious with Coastal the last two years over two coaching regimes is they only show up when they have to and when they have something at stake. Last week against Army had no bearing on their SBC East chances and they played like it. Last year at JMU was the same (plus their coach was leaving that week). But this week they have everything at stake (in no small part thanks to JMU leadership). Win and they not only clinch another trip to Troy for the SBC Championship game, but this year they would also do so without even the huge asterisk from last year as they’d be tied with JMU and App by record but have won it outright given wins over both. Lose and they could still get in with a Georgia Southern win over App, but that would be an even larger asterisk than last year.
On the field, they should probably just throw it over and over to school legend WR/TE sam Pinckney because as the Dukes have shown, their defense seems designed to give up 10 yard possession-style catches all day unless the rush gets home – something it hasn’t been able to do nearly as effectively since losing Jalen Green a few weeks ago.
Defensively is the spot where Coastal has been underatedly competent all year. As usual against JMU, the question is can you pressure McCloud enough for four quarters to prevent the nearly inevitable Brown/Sarratt explosive plays?
How JMU Can Win
Find motivation. That’s it. Simple gameplan questions for the Dukes this week as usual. On offense can they run the ball enough to keep the Chants honest and open up their explosive passing game? On defense, are they will to send more guys in the pass rush against a backup QB and risk playing more press-man coverage on the outside?
But none of that really matters if the players and coaches are still as devastated and distracted as us fans have been come Saturday. It definitely takes a few days to shake off a loss that tough, but the Dukes have to realize no matter what’s happened on the “eligibility” front, they’ll still remember this season waaaaay differently if they win this one to get to 11-1, win the East again, and finish ranked no matter what happens around the country in terms of bowl eligibility. And if things do break their way around the country this week (still a distinct possibility), making the program’s first ever bowl appearance at 11-1 will feel a hell of a lot better than 10-2.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Sierra Nevada Pale Ale – The OG. At turkey time, you want a little more malt flavor to pair with your leftovers even if you still love hops like us and this old standby will never steer you wrong.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 24, Coastal 23 – Most people outside of JMU fans (and even many of those) won’t realize this, but this would arguably be the most impressive win of the Cignetti era in terms of difficulty. Coastal is competent (meant as a real complement) at everything and playing for a legit East title instead of last year after an impressive turnaround midseason this year. JMU is trying to recover from having a tough loss and a letdown from the adults all around them that shouldn’t make this all so rough. But we simply believe in the 10-1 team more than the 7-4 team and guys like Lawton, Brown, and Kromah playing in their last regular season game with no guarantees beyond that aren’t going down without getting their teammates to fight.
Special Student Retrospective on All the Incredible Things From Last Week by Annalee Hunniford (Class of 2025)
Hello fellow dukes and friends!
My name is Annalee and i am a Junior here at JMU. It’s currently thanksgiving break
and i just got my wisdom teeth out yesterday, so please excuse any run on sentences
and random prose.
a quick intro
last Wednesday during my evening class, my professor was talking about an old
Harrisonburg bar called the “Highlawn Pavilion”. the glory in which he described this bar
peaked my interest because in 2023, the Harrisonburg bar scene is absolutely nothing
to write home about. therefore, i obviously had to google this bar, which landed me here
at Rob & Todd’s blog, on a guest article written about “the best short lived Harrionburg
bars”. i spent the better part of the 2 1/2 hour class reading their blog and imagining the
savory Harrisonburg social scene that i never got to experience. things are quite
different these days it seems; the bar scene is small and strict and the frat parties and
tailgates usually don’t last more than a few hours before getting busted. regardless, i
still have the time of my life every weekend. JMU is the BEST school and i will die on
that hill. BUT I DIGRESS… i come from an SEC family, so little ol’ freshman annalee
was determined to make the most of CAA sports, regardless of the “commie” vibes they
gave off. Fall semester of 2021, i was one of the only lunatic freshman standing at the
front of the basketball arena’s student section screaming and holding a sign depicting
“FUCK THE CAA”. you could catch me at every sporting event in head to toe purple,
carrying some random sign i scribbled in my dorm room. when JMU switched to the
SBC, that’s when things REALLY started to get good. as a then sophomore, i had more
freedom; a car, a job, an apartment with a tv….and the money to buy espn+ so i could
indulge in all the JMU Sports i wanted. thus began the mass frenzy of students and
commentators bugging the N*AA to LET US BOWL!
the calm before the storm
flash forward to November 2023. i don’t think i can put into words the excitement
coursing through the student body’s veins when we heard ESPN College Gameday was
coming to Harrisonburg. when the news broke across social media, my roommates and
i were shrieking in our living room; their enthusiasm stemmed from the impending arrival
of the Jonas Brothers, while mine was fueled by the anticipation of College GameDay
spotlighting our team as we prepared to whoop up on some ‘neers (or so i believed).
the only thing i’d kept from an ex-boyfriend during my freshman year was a 2017
College Gameday shirt from the last time ESPN graced JMU. i whipped that thing out
and strutted around campus while everyone asked me where they could get one. you
see, the excitement level was unparalleled because this recognition doesn’t happen to
us Dukes. until this year, we were overlooked by mainstream sports media. the
university’s stringent administration and local PD leave little room for revelry, and school
spirit suffers when students routinely leave games at halftime. when the news hit that
College Gameday was headed to Harrisonburg, all hell broke loose in the best way
possible. at the Pat McAfee show on Friday, Coach Curt Cignetti ignited a collective fire
within us as he vociferously criticized the NCAA for denying us a bowl game. perched
atop my tall friend’s shoulders, the crowd and i chanted “TALK YO SHIT” at Cignetti, a
slogan which i later made into my gameday sign. Pat in his sleeveless JMU Football
tank top was the most attractive and energetic motivator of school spirit we’ve seen yet.
that dude is something else!
GAMEDAY
my business fraternity friends and i decided we were going to host a 4am “marty”
(morning party) on Saturday. half of us camped out on the quad Friday night in hopes of
getting a spot in the pit, while the other half opted for an early bedtime, popping
melatonin at 7pm (myself included). the plan was simple; get to the party by 4am, rage
our faces off, then walk to the quad by 6am. my mom thinks i’m crazy, but this is the shit
i live for. after all, when else would it be socially acceptable to indulge in vodka
monsters at 4am?
when my alarm went off at 2:45am, i was UP & AT ‘EM. win or lose, the student
body was dedicated on that fine saturday morning. i was astounded at the marty’s
turnout. every Duke in town, past and current, was up and ready to fucking rumble.
even those unfamiliar with or uninterested in college football found themselves in town,
swept up in the infectious excitement ahh, there was an unmistakable energy
permeating the air this weekend.
picture this: it’s 4am and our downtown house is packed full of dukes, hokies,
hoos, and anyone who made the trip down 81 (because, at JMU, hospitality is our forte).
if there’s one thing i’ve learned from our less-than-ideal streak of 12pm kickoff regular
season games, it’s that in order to get people to show up before 9am, someone has got
to take one for the team and pick everyone up. so there i was, cruising down devon lane
in my soccer-mom Honda CRV at 3:45am, picking up anyone who was ready. one of
my friends hopped in the car sporting bloodshot eyes courtesy of yakking from a 3am
empty stomach tequila shot (i never claimed we were the brightest bunch). to my
satisfaction, the box of pancakes i had meticulously prepared the night before was
devoured within 30 minutes of my arrival. those pancakes were my feeble attempt to
ward off the fraternity’s inevitable 4am puking-from-drinking-on-an-empty-stomach.
there ain’t nothin’ more degenerate than blasting house music and being able to
stomach vodka and pancakes at 4am!
by 6am, the “marty” crowd had stumbled down to the quad. my white heeled
cowboy boots were stuffed with airplane bottles of pinnacle vodka, and we ripped one
last shot before bounding out the door. the dimly lit streets were aglow with people
adorned in all kinds of purple and gold. the quad transformed into an organized
madhouse of 26,000 people; a sight so beautiful and American that i shed a tear. having
attended nearly every sporting event at JMU over the past two years, i can attest that
nothing compared to the school spirit and infectious excitement that must’ve been
blowing through ESPN’s quad speakers. i pondered how the morning would go—would
the school and local PD let us revel in our fun, or would they clamp down as they often
do, in fear of the early 2000’s springfest riots surfacing again? as the sun started to rise,
it became evident that this crowd of dukes was going to stay planted on the quad until
tailgate time. i was both delighted yet surprised by how well everyone behaved, even
with hours of liquor in our systems.
my group and i secured a spot on the famed “kissing rock”, with an eye-level
view of the quad in all its morning glory. the rock lived up to its name when, at 7am, i
glanced over and saw my roommate unsteadily macking on some dude (isn’t that a bad
omen, to kiss on the kissing rocks? someone verify or deny in the comments please).
embracing my inner wannabe celebrity, i vlogged the whole morning and time stamped
each update. by 9am, the crowd was ROARING, prompting ESPN officials to declare it
the most spirited Gameday crowd they’d seen in years. when JMU wants to show out,
we show OUT! College Gameday encourages crowds to make and bring signs to hold
up in the background of the show. at JMU, the signs being held up depicted a wild array
of opinions, colors, and choice-words for the NCAA. to an outsider uneducated on
college football, witnessing the crowd might have suggested that JMU was playing a
team named “NCAA,” given the way the signs shit them. some of the best signs i saw, i
can’t even repeat here. the Jonas Brothers and Bailey Zimmerman took the stage
around 9am, performing just one song—a bit of a letdown, but i don’t think anyone was
there solely for their performance. personally, i would’ve been content with a local DJ
spinning hits all morning; the music wasn’t the primary motivation for this spirited crowd.
as game time drew near, the chants got louder. App State was going to hear
from us dukes, win or lose! on that beautiful Saturday morning, 26,000 diverse
individuals shared one commonality: we all bled purple. i’ve never seen JMU exude
such spirit, and while i’d like to believe it will happen again, we did break the Gameday
attendance record, so probably not. it was the most fun i’ve had in college thus far and
these memories will stay with me for life. i now understand the way my dad raves about
his alma mater’s football games and why i grew up in those colors. my future kids will
likely emerge from the womb wearing purple and gold. i’m not a writing major so i don’t
really know how to wrap this amateur article up, but i’ll leave you with a saying: ALL WE
MUST COMPLETE IN LIFE IS DEATH, TAXES, AND DUKES. IT’S ROLL DUKES
UNTIL I FUCKING DIE, BABY. my face hurts now from the wisdom being extracted out
of my teeth, and with that, goodnight.
The Basics
Matchup: App. St. Mountaineers (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) at #18 JMU Dukes (10-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. EST, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 54, Mostly Sunny (smoke should clear Saturday morning)
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -9, O/U 55.5
How We Got Here
With the exception of last week against a broken and soft Georgia St. team, the Mountaineers have played close games all season long. And when we say close games all season, that means regardless of the quality of the opponent. Lost in OT to a Top 20 UNC? Check. Needed a miracle to defeat SBC disaster ULM 41-40? Check. Lost on blocked FG return to a Mountain West team? Sure. Lost a hard-fought game to Coastal on a Tuesday? Also sure. From giving up 28 points to one of the worst teams in FBS in ECU to winning in Atlanta last week in a mirror image of JMU’s game from the previous week, there is no simple explanation for this year’s App team. In late October they were 3-4 and coming off back-to-back losses to Coastal and ODU and most folks up on the mountain were ready to fire HC Sean Clark. But App has won three straight SBC games (objectively not a murderers’ row in SBC terms with USM, Marshall, and Ga. St.) to get to 6-4 and, more importantly, 4-2 in the East that puts them legitimately back in the title race (they would technically be in the East race even if JMU was eligible though they’d need major help from Coastal both weeks). Even 10 games in, which is quite a sample size in college football, this team still is largely an unknown.
The Dukes on the other hand survived their tough 5-game September and then used the bye week at the start of October to start improving every week. Other than the moderate scare against rival ODU at Homecoming, JMU has managed more comfortable outcomes the second half of the season to date.
How App. St. Can Win
Keep Aguilar clean, get pressure on McCloud, and win the turnover battle. Aguilar and McCloud have nearly identical numbers and App has shown they can score when he has time. But when he’s been put under pressure, things have gotten squirrely for the ‘neers. App has to find a way to keep him upright to get their more explosive players downfield. Leaning on their running game with Nate Noel and co., or even one or two huge plays on the ground to soften things up, would go a long way against what is sure to be a creative (and crowd-insane) pass-rush from JMU. Defensively, App shouldn’t respect the run so much from the Dukes that they leave any stone unturned in terms of finding ways to pressure McCloud. The back end of App’s D simply will not hold up against this Dukes attack if they have to cover for more than 3 seconds.
Lastly, have we mentioned App plays every game close and can’t afford crucial turnovers?
How JMU Can Win
Run the ball enough, get pressure on Aguilar, and win the turnover battle. Sound a lot like the keys mentioned in the preceding section? Sure does. In JMU’s case, the only difference is the Dukes would be a hell of a lot better off if they can find even a little bit of consistency and positive yardage in the running game. That will slow App’s rush and give McCloud time. The thing Sean Clark and all the old heads in Boone don’t want to admit is that basically everyone (who doesn’t suck) has been able to score, frequently, on a team that used to be known for hardheaded defense. If the Dukes can maintain a tiny bit of balance, McCloud, Brown, Sarratt, Sproles, Horton, etc. will eventually explode on this team.
Defensively, the Dukes seem more likely to get a little funky with their pressures (think 3 down linemen but two backers coming or back to the End/Tackle stunts we saw run so successfully prior to last week’s vanilla scheme even without Jalen Green). If that works, that could provide the impetus for JMU to win the turnover battle, something equally crucial to both teams if this game is as close as every App game this year, and every game in this series, seems to be.
How This Game Will Really Be Won
We wrote the “how each team can win” sections as objectively as possible from an X’s and O’s standpoint. But now let’s all be honest with ourselves in light of the latest waiver denial for JMU. The only thing that’s going to determine the outcome this week is how the Dukes players respond to this latest bit of bowlshit. If the Dukes hang their heads for more than a heartbeat or let this distract them from the work ahead, App is (probably?) good enough to win. But if the Dukes choose Coach Cignetti’s “biggest chip on the shoulder ever” option? Well, let’s just say we enjoy the thought of the hellfire the Dukes may bring down on a not-exactly-vintage Mountaineers team.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Whiskey.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 38, App. St. 17 – The Dukes choose violence.
The Basics
Matchup: UConn Huskies (1-8, Independent) at #21 JMU Dukes (9-0, 6-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. EST, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 47, Sunny
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -24.5, O/U 48.5
How We Got Here
UConn got blown out at Tennessee. It was not unexpected but the final was a bit deceiving as the Vols scored three defensive/specials TD’s in the third quarter to really make it look silly. That’s really a microcosm of the Huskies’ season overall, which has them reeling at 1-8 for a team that has played very well at times. UConn hung very tough with NC State early on and choked away a win in a one-point loss to the same Utah St. team that JMU struggled to put away.
After an uneven first half, the Dukes absolutely rolled in Atlanta last weekend over a Georgia State team that crumbled after getting punched in the mouth. The win was great and continued to show that JMU keeps improving as it heads down the stretch. Unfortunately, the win was a bit tainted by the loss of Jalen Green.
In an odd scheduling quirk, this will be the second time this year the Dukes have played a team that just got blown out by Tennessee. UVA played a hell of a lot better against JMU in Week 2 than they had in their opener and it’s certainly possible UConn does the same.
Finally, in the big picture this is a fun matchup for old heads that remember these teams sharing a conference back in the Yankee/A-10 days of yesteryear.
How UConn Can Win
Stop beating themselves and hang in till the pressure builds on JMU. UConn rushing attack, led by Victor Rosa, has been solid and capable of breaking big runs in the outside zone scheme all year. JMU will be reshuffling the line after losing Green (and we assume moving Kromah outside full time while inserting Tucker/Bush in the middle alongside Carp) and the Huskies will be looking to take advantage of any potential confusion. But what UConn really has to do is stop beating themselves. Turnovers on offense and enormous plays given up in the passing game defensively have doomed many of their efforts this season. But if they can play a clean game and hang around into the second half, the pressure will build on a JMU team with so much on the line. We hate even typing this, but UConn is probably not even close 24 points worse than the Dukes as the line suggests, but the real question is can they be focused enough on the road in an odd place (for them) at this point in a long season?
How JMU Can Win
Put this team away when you have the chance. After sputtering a bit early, JMU didn’t hesitate to put its foot on Georgia State’s neck when the chance presented itself just after halftime last week and they’ll need to do the same this week. If the Dukes have a chance to put two scores between them and the Huskies, they need to take advantage this week. This will be UConn’s last shot to make noise nationally with only their FCS game and UMass remaining on the schedule and the Dukes cannot allow them to build belief as this game moves along.
There really aren’t huge scheme issues here. If the Dukes OLine continues giving McCloud time, the big plays over the top will come. Defensively, they need to be better against the run (including QB Roberson who is a capable runner) than they were last week but if they can force UConn into passing situations, the rush should feast even in Green’s absence this week. One of the most interested things to watch will be how the DLine adjusts this week. They’ll undoubtedly miss Green’s pure speed around the edge, but playing Kromah and Kamara outside with Carpenter and Tucker inside will actually make them “bigger” than they’ve been. With hopefully the continuously improving health of Taurus Jones and Jailin Walker at LB alongside Aiden Fisher, it’s possible the defense doesn’t “drop off” so much as simply change it’s approach and appearance the next three (or four?) games.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Commonwealth Brewing Company’s Superluminal West Coast IPA – We’ve been huge fans of Virginia Beach’s finest for years, but they’d gone so heavy on uber-hazy stuff (following Veil’s lead??) that we’ve been a bit more luke-warm on some new offerings. Not anymore! With the opening of their kick-ass new taproom in Fairfax City, we’ve gotten to dive a lot deeper on their full lineup without committing to expensive four-packs. And finding Superluminal was a true reminder of how excited we got when Papi Chulo and Marvolo were new. Go drink this.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 38, UConn 10 – We’ve been hesitant to pick blowouts, but while this may be close for a while, our expectation is the Dukes defense rallies after losing Green and is simply better than most of what the Huskies have seen this year.
The Basics
Matchup: #23 JMU Dukes (8-0, 5-0 Sun Belt) at Georgia St. Panthers (6-2, 3-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EDT, Center Parc Stadium (Turner Field), Atlanta, Georgia
Weather: 64, Sunny
Broadcast: ESPN2
Boys in the Desert: JMU -5.5, O/U 54.5
How We Got Here
The Dukes survived an outstanding performance from rival ODU to maintain their perfect record. Even with all the noise around postseason issues, the Dukes themselves seem locked on just going 1-0.
Georgia State is another weird, somewhat inconsistent team. They were 6-1 and heading to their “semi” rival Georgia Southern (despite the Panthers success lately in the matchup, they’re unquestionably not Southern’s biggest rival so it’s a weird thing) for a big Thursday showcase matchup last week. They laid an egg in the first half, trailing 34-7 at one point. The Panthers made it a game after the half before throwing a hideus pick-six to erase their shot at a comeback. Georgia State’s other loss this year was a beatdown at home by Troy at the tail end of September. But they’ve beaten the Cajuns in a game they almost choked away, really ran it up on Marshall, won at Coastal back before the Chants’ turnaround, and won forgettable games early against Charlotte, UConn, and Rhode Island. Notably, they hung on in that first game against our old friends from Rhode-I thanks to one of the worst officiating blunders of the college season.
How Georgia St. Can Win
Replicate what ODU did spreading the Dukes out on D and make no mistakes. Last year Georgia St. jumped all over the Dukes in the first half but that was almost entirely JMU’s fault (two fumble return TD’s and another fumble on a kickoff that handed them 17 points) rather than something special from the Panthers. They can’t count on that to happen again this week, but the Panther’s still have studs at the skill positions and will almost certainly attempt to follow ODU’s gameplan from last week to find space for QB Darren Grainger and company.
Defensively, the Panthers HAVE to find a way to take advantage of JMU’s changes along the line and get pressure on McCloud. He had all day to throw last week and ODU’s secondary is way more consistent than Georgia State’s. Despite his fumble-six, Centeio threw it all over the yard last year running up 42 points. The Panthers need to speed Jordan up this year while maintaining their usually strong performance against the the run.
How JMU Can Win
Close faster on short passes defensively and whip asses up front offensively. ODU QB Grant Wilson was a bit of a surprise with how well he threw the ball last week, particularly to the sidelines on the short throws. Grainger is a much different proposition. On one hand, he’s absolutely more dangerous running (along with pretty outstaning back Marcus Carroll) if they can spread JMU into just a 6 or 7 man box. But after all this time as one of the SBC’s best players, he’s still inconsistent throwing the ball. The arm talent is there but you don’t have to look further than last year’s second half against the Dukes or last week’s game at Southern to know he still misses things at times. He also relies more on clear WR1 Ronald Lewis at times instead of taking what the defense really gives him. In a weird way, ODU’s lack of top-end skill position talent made this easier for them. This week the Dukes need to limit that short passing game to 3 yard catches rather than 7 or 8 like last week and wait for the opportunities on occassional bad throws.
On offense it’s a little tougher to figure out. Georgia St. is reasonably solid against the run and JMU prefers to throw anyways, but with a reshuffled OLine (again) and a Georgia St. team that will screw up eventually if you allow them to, we have to think the Dukes will simplify things a bit and try to grind on the ground. Our guess is we even see Latrele return to the fold this week.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Terrapin Beer Company Wake-n-Bake Coffee Oatmeal Imperial Stout – At least for those of us watching from the Commonwealth, it’s finally gotten cold enough for stouts! Big game requires a big beer so what’s better than one of the true OG’s of the Southern craft scene, plus it’ll wake you up during nearly infinite ESPN2 game experience.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 35, Georgia St. 17 – The Dukes aren’t quite as high-flying as last year, but they aren’t going to implode in this matchup like they almost did last year and Jalen Green and the boys are going to be all over Grainger.
The Basics
Matchup: Old Dominion Monarchs (4-3, 3-1 Sun Belt) at #25 JMU Dukes (7-0, 4-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown
Weather: 58, cloudy
Broadcast: ESPNU
Boys in the Desert: JMU -20.5, O/U 49
How We Got Here
ODU is so weird. And maybe…..good? You tell me what to make of this schedule:
36-17 loss at Virginia Tech, 38-31 home win over Louisiana, 27-24 home loss to Wake Forest, 10-9 homecoming win over something called Commerce, 41-35 loss at Marshall, 17-13 win at Southern Miss, 28-21 home win over App St.
Seriously, what the hell is that? If you can find a pattern you’re smarter than we are. The losses to Tech and Wake were better than they looked. The wins over Commerce and USM were so much worse than they looked. The offensive explosion at a Marshall team that JMU struggled to score against. And now a win over another inconsistent but dangerous (or not?) App team. Like, if they win the Wake game but lose the Commerce game (when TAMU-Commerce went for two and the win in the last minute) does it change our perception? Probably not. Just a strange, strange team who probably had their biggest win last week.
The Dukes dominated Marshall defensively in a weird Thursday night field position game to run their record to 7-0. That’s even more impressive considering JMU has clearly been playing it’s best ball the last three games and seems to be getting better as the season moves along.
How ODU Can Win
Normally we’d say find their running game on offense and make JMU one-dimensional on the other side. But really maybe the answer is “keep hitting big plays.” ODU has made plenty of big plays when they’ve been at their best this year and JMU was, at least prior to the last two games, often susceptible to giving up some headscratchers. No matter who is QB1 for the Monarchs when they have the ball, they simply cannot leave themselves in obvious passing situations. Nobody has really run on JMU, but so often a combination of field position and game situation has also led teams to abandon the effort too early. ODU, which has the most sacks allowed by any team in the country vs. the Dukes defense is a recipe for disaster (and covering a big number :)). But if ODU can find just enough in the running game (not even massive plays necessarily) to stay ahead of the chains and keep the DLine from simply teeing off on their statutesque QB’s, they might be able to pull JMU out of position with some of their creativity on offense (think misdirection, shovel passes, play-action, and even single-wing concepts at times).
Similarly, on defense ODU needs to focus on stopping the run and force JMU to be one-dimensional. The one aspect of the 2023 vintage for JMU that hasn’t fully joined the “complete team” concept that has grown through seven games has surprisingly been the Dukes rushing attack. Whether teams are simply keying on that or they’ve caught up scheme-wise to JMU’s quick-hitting running game, it’s been a mild disappointment given the talent and experience on the OLine and in the RB room. But JMU has never truly been forced to abandon the run – particularly given its fast starts and early leads – and that’s left room for explosiveness in the passing game. The Monarchs have to force JMU to throw – something they could be capable of with the SBC’s leading tackler Jason Henderson at LB – and hope they can make opportunistic plays.
How JMU Can Win
Do the job. That’s it. But this is Homecoming. It’s JMU Halloween. The Dukes are ranked again. The game’s on national tv again. Football commentators and attention-seeking politicians alike are using JMU to take shots at the easy target that is the NCAA. There’s concern about the postseason, next season, NIL, and playoff access. But those are all jobs for people who don’t wear helmets to worry about this week. It’s the jobs of student orgs and the Alumni Association to worry about Homecoming. Students’ (and the HPD) have the job of worrying about Halloween. The Media can worry about rankings. SID’s and the production team can worry about tv. Adminstrators can deal with the NCAA. And the Duke Club and Montpelier Collective can worry about NIL and next season.
The ONLY JOB for Homecoming for the fellas with JMU on the helmet is to WIN the football game. Last year the hype and distractions and fans showing their backsides yelling about postseason led directly to a three-game losing streak that started with a disappointing upset loss to Georgia Southern. This year’s team just needs to do it’s job. On paper this matchup heavily favors the Dukes in almost every meaningful way. The pass rush could be legendary (think playoffs against Soft Houston ’16 or SELA ’21) against the sieve that is ODU’s line. After losing star wideout Ali Jennings to VT’s NIL this year, the Monarchs don’t have a receiver with even 350 yards to date and it’s unclear if they can challenge JMU’s one “developing” area on defense. But for Dukes fans old enough to know better, the only other time ODU came to Bridgeforth, Taylor Heinicke lit JMU up in the second half and handed us one of the more painful losses of the past 25 years. If the team simply maintains its focus on the game and saves worries about all the other stuff for afterwards, there’s no reason to think the Dukes can’t dominate the way they did last year in Norfolk.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Founder’s All Day IPA. The obvious choice for a tailgate day this lengthy. It’s not cold enough yet for stouts and, despite our preferences, we aren’t choosing a Commonwealth Brewing offering against a 757 team. So make the easy, safe choice and go with the best combo of taste and low ABV found anywhere.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 38, ODU 17 – We’re nervous about the classic “trap game” here and the Monarchs “may” be making progress (is App good?), but the matchup seems too favorable to pick much different from last year’s game.
