Coastal Carolina at JMU: Official 2024 JMUSB Game #6 Preview
The Basics
Matchup: Coastal Carolina (4-1, 1-0) at JMU (4-1, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
Weather: Typical Valley Fall – cool and clear at night, with temperatures potentially falling into the 40s
Broadcast: ESPN2
Day Job Numbers: JMU -9.5, ML -375; O/U 61.5
Given JMU’s up-and-down nature, a point spread out near -10 for a weeknight game feels a bit hefty. Then again, JMU is a semi-public team at this point that still has a win against UNC on the resume, and Coastal Carolina hasn’t delivered a decisive win since Week 1.
Bonus reading – Earlier this week, I wrote a quick JMU vs. Coastal Carolina betting preview on how to approach the total. You can check that out if that sort of thing interests you.
How We Got Here
After an explosive end to September that had JMU fans riding high, the Dukes dropped from the ranks of the undefeated when it lost its second-ever road Sun Belt game at UL Monroe, 21-19.
In some ways, the loss was unlucky. The Dukes outgained Monroe 399-257, but they also allowed a red zone fumble to be returned 82 yards for a touchdown just before halftime that accounted for a swing of 10-14 points.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, JMU had a postgame winning percentage of 80.3%. For those who don’t attend the holy church of analytics, that essentially means that a team given JMU’s game profile and stats should win about four out of five times. As I said – bad luck.
In other ways, though, JMU absolutely made the bed it had to sleep in. Penalties piled up, including several bad pre-snap errors in critical situations. The Dukes went for it on fourth down five times, with four of the attempts needing four yards or greater. They were 0-for-4 on those attempts. Pressured all night, Alonza Barnett finished the game 20-for-47.
The decision that will probably be remembered most from this outing came late. Trailing 21-19 with 4:04 still on the clock and all three timeouts in pocket, the coaching staff elected to roll the dice with a squib kick against an unconventional ULM kickoff formation. The gamble failed, as ULM recovered the ball at midfield, jamming JMU on field position when it forced a stop and got the ball back.
Instead of needing 20 or 30 yards for a game-winning field goal from Noe Ruelas, the Dukes needed at least 50. It never materialized, and Monroe held on for a narrow win that keeps the Warhawks alone atop the SBC-West standings.
Three Things to Know About Coastal Carolina
Fried Beach Chicken – JMU has utterly smashed Coastal Carolina in two meetings since joining the Sun Belt, outscoring the Chants 103-21.
The timing of those games was important. In 2022, JMU played Coastal in a de facto SBC East title game at the end of the regular season, and the Dukes were motivated to make a statement about how good they really were. In 2023, Coastal was the post-App State punching bag that the Dukes used after losing its undefeated status with College GameDay in town the previous week.
The two-year history may leave the impression for some fans that JMU owns Coastal, and that Thursday’s result is a foregone conclusion. To state the obvious, this is a new team and a new staff. Coastal is a good team and a serious threat to win on Saturday.
No Grayson, No Problem – With former coach Jamey Chadwell leaving for Lynchburg after 2022, and 28th-year quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to NC State this past offseason, you could be forgiven for thinking Coastal might experience a short-term decline.
That just hasn’t been the case. Second-year coach Tim Beck has put together a nice roster for 2024. Sophomore quarterback Ethan Vasko is the leader on offense and ranks 39th in FBS with a QBR of 69.4. The Coastal run game isn’t going to blow anyone away, but the Chants do rank first in the Sun Belt in EPA/dropback. Vasko is young, but he’s a definite player.
Six weeks into the season, JMU and Coastal Carolina look like the two teams that were most clearly underrated in the East. The offense that can execute better on Thursday will likely have the inside track to the Sun Belt title game. This is a bigger game than many JMU fans may realize.
Takeaway Kings – James Madison might lead FBS in takeaways, but Coastal Carolina leads the nation in turnovers returned for a touchdown. The defense has found the end zone at least once in four of five games, including all four of its wins.
On the heels of a game where a defensive score proved quite critical indeed, pay attention to when JMU turns the ball over and how those bonus Coastal possessions end. If the Chants wins, there’s a decent chance they were aided by JMU’s offense.
How JMU Can Win
Shake off the loss and play crisp, explosive offense.
Last week, I talked about the need for composure and consistency, as well as my concern that the offense may have a minor crisis of confidence when something eventually goes wrong. That remains true this week, with a suddenly anxious crowd packing Bridgeforth for another night game on a primary ESPN platform.
JMU’s defense is unlikely to shut down the Coastal offense, which means it’s going to need to score early and often to win. This year, that has generally meant connecting on deep balls and executing on fourth and short. I think greater consistency on third and medium is still pretty important, too.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Bell’s Octoberfest. I am not unaware of the infamous reputation that certain fall beers have amongst the esteemed founders of JMUSB, but if ever there was a time to take a long drag from the autumnal chalice, surely it’s the middle of October.
Obviously, there are a lot of options in this lane, but I like this 5.5% ABV from the always-solid Bells Brewery. You can find it at Total Wine and some Wegmans, among other places.
That said, if you’re in Harrisonburg this Thursday like Rob/Todd/me, leave the Bell’s in the cooler and head to Pale Fire, where you can get their Oktoberfest on draft.
The taproom opens at noon – pretty wonderful, since tailgate lots won’t open until 4:30.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 46, Coastal Carolina 34
Both teams find the end zone over and over, and the Chanticleers’ offense generates more than a few frustrated groans among the JMU faithful. “I thought our defense was better than this,” will be something Bridgeforth fans hear in the stadium on Thursday night.
Ultimately, though, the difference in the game is JMU’s ability to stay on schedule by mixing hard runs and play action, and that gives JMU’s offense the decisive edge.
College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Existential CFP Dread In Week 7 (And Beyond)
JMU is currently receiving zero votes in the AP Poll. If CFP rankings existed right now, we can probably assume the Dukes would be in similar standing there.
The reality of the Monroe loss is that JMU probably needs to deliver a few weeks of quality results to offset the memory of Week 6. Boise State and Navy look like the clear-cut favorites to compete for the G5 playoff berth. The Broncos have the current favorite in BetMGM’s Heisman Trophy odds market, while Navy has the benefit of a home game against Notre Dame at the end of the month.
There’s still a lot of season left, and anything is possible. But as things stand now, JMU’s path to the playoff is convoluted enough that it probably doesn’t merit much consideration.
Let’s check back in a few weeks, when CFP rankings are on the horizon and Navy has played its game against the Fighting Irish.
