JMU at Old Dominion: Official JMUSB Game Preview #10

The Basics

Matchup: JMU (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Old Dominion (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt)

Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, VA

Weather: 65 and Sunny. What a day for football, with 15 days to go before December!

Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU

Day Job Numbers: JMU -2.5, ML -150; O/U 51.5

Some mid-week movement has taken this line from JMU -3.5 to JMU -2.5. Crossing through that key number of three is a notable development that suggests some major bettors like the ODU side of this game.

(For the record, I have this game highlighted in my college football best bets for this week, too.)

How We Got Here

Emerging from its second bye, JMU played a thoroughly ordinary game against last-place Georgia State. It mounted multiple scoring drives in each of the first three quarters and cruised to a 38-7 victory in Week 11.

Three Things to Know About Old Dominion

Don’t Let the Record Fool You – ODU has been frustratingly inconsistent for most of this year, making it a difficult team to predict. I mean, this is a team that held a fourth-quarter lead against South Carolina and then lost to East Carolina at home in back-to-back weeks.

The result is a team that’s in danger of missing bowl eligibility, which perhaps makes ODU look like an easier opponent than it actually is. The schedule included two P4 schools and zero FCS opponents.

Probably true: If JMU and ODU swapped non-conference schedules, it’s very likely that JMU would be the team floating around .500.

So yeah, don’t let that record fool you into a sense of complacency. These teams are tied in the standings for a reason – they are roughly equal opponents this year.

Developing Offense – ODU has really struggled with quarterback play since the days of Taylor Heinicke, but redshirt freshman Colton Joseph seems like a gamer. Since taking over the full-time job in Week 6, Joseph’s effectiveness in the pocket has steadily ticked up. Entering the JMU game, he’s now logged two straight games with 300 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes.

ODU’s midseason turnaround is directly related to the improvement at quarterback, and it’s a particularly dangerous team now that the offense is more balanced and playing complementary football. The blowout win over Georgia Southern was not a fluke.

Turnover Difference – If there’s one big critique of Joseph and the ODU offense, it’s the tendency to put the ball on the ground. ODU has lost six fumbles since the start of Sun Belt play, and those turnovers played a major role in losses at Coastal Carolina and App State.

In the case of the latter, ODU actually outgained App by more than 100 yards in Boone but lost because it was -3 on turnovers for the game.

JMU has had its own issues with offensive execution this year, but one reason the season has been a success so far is that the defense actually leads Division I FBS football in turnover margin with a +18 net gain. Chasing ODU’s turnover tendency and capitalizing on positive field position could be a key point of emphasis this weekend.

How JMU Can Win

Limit mistakes and capitalize on opportunities.

Okay, that probably sounds like I’m auditioning for a free trip to Davos or something. But when JMU has struggled in tough road games this year, it’s because it’s made awful mistakes and/or failed to capitalize on the opportunities created by its ball-hawking defense.

UL Monroe? The game swung on an 80-yard fumble returned for a touchdown where the offense was probably trying to do a little too much.

Georgia Southern? It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a team go +4 in turnover margin and not be anywhere near winning the game.

JMU can win this weekend if it makes fewer, less costly mistakes than ODU. I’m expecting some serious punting, too, so someone better keep Ryan Hanson’s leg warm.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

Lunch by Maine Beer Company. An eastward trip to Norfolk calls for a great beer with oceanic roots, and this northeastern take on a West Coast IPA was named after an injured whale. So there’s that.

You can find this on draft all over northern and central Virginia and in many grocery stores and craft beer shops. I just picked some up at Wegman’s earlier this week!

Official JMUSB Prediction

Old Dominion 17, JMU 13. The Dukes are 0-2 in road games since the big Chapel Hill win, and unfortunately, I think we’re going to see the trend continue this weekend against the Monarchs.

As I’ve said, the key here is offensive execution in an unfriendly environment. I think we all know what the ceiling looks like with this team, but the drive-to-drive consistency just hasn’t been there this year – especially against teams with a pulse.

If JMU limits its turnovers and converts on the high-leverage plays, then of course JMU can win. But for now, I’m predicting a rivalry loss that will sting in the short term but serve as another opportunity for growth in the longer term.