If we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it’s that college football’s conference structure is set in anything but stone. Something as simple as a school exploring the opportunity to switch conferences, can set of a chain reaction that drastically impacts the entire NCAA landscape. Schools that don’t act quickly and decisively can find themselves swept away. Likewise, schools that seize the opportunity can elevate their programs to the big time virtually overnight. After much careful analysis, I’ve come to the conclusion that college football will soon have 4 super conferences. The good news is that JMU is virtual lock to be a part of one of them. Provided a few small events play out as I have predicted of course.
Event 1: Texas A&M Leaves the Big 12
Yes, the reports that the Aggies were SEC bound last weekend proved to be a bit premature. That doesn’t mean they won’t eventually find themselves in the conference. The delay was simply posturing and legal speak. The SEC risks legal action if the Big 12 can prove it enticed A&M to leave. They need A&M to make the first move and quit the Big 12. When they do, the SEC will be waiting with a membership offer. And that simple invitation will change the face of college football forever.
Result: The Big 12 is down to 9 members and the SEC needs another school to balance the divisions. The Pac 12, Big 10, Big East, and ACC scramble to defend their turf.
Event 2: The U Gets the Death Penalty
Popular opinion seems to indicate that the NCAA will never again give a school the death penalty after the effect it had on SMU. However, the NCAA has never seen a scandal like this one before. I mean, did you read the report? If the NCAA expects to retain whatever shred of credibility it thinks it has, it is going to have to bring the hammer down on Miami. Even if they don’t get the death penalty, Miami is screwed. The program already struggles to draw fans. Take away 15 or 20 scholarships, television exposure, and bowl games and the program is going to be on life support. If they don’t get killed, they’ll probably just kill themselves. However it plays out, the ACC is going to have no part of it. One more vacancy in a BCS conference opens up.
Result: The ACC joins the Big 12 and SEC in the hunt for new members. The remaining BCS conferences circle the wagons and position themselves to fend them off.
Event 3: The Louisiana Purchase Is Declared Unconstitutional
Scholars have been arguing for over 200 years about the legality of the United States’ purchase of over 828,000 square miles of land from France during Thomas Jefferson’s presidency. We typically shy away from politics here, but Jefferson’s men sort of did Napolean and the French wrong with that move. Now our sources on the Hill are telling us that the purchase is due to be ruled unconstitutional and the territory will be returned to France before the end of the calendar year. And as you know, the French don’t play college football. They play soccer, wear berets, and go on strike. That means that the programs at LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kanas, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Minnesota will all be terminated. With only the ACC and Big East spared from the carnage, the conference structure as we know it will be destroyed.
Result: The BCS conferences all disband and former members begin recruiting new schools to finally form 4 super conferences.
Event 4: The Shenandoah Valley Leads the Global Economic Recovery
The struggles of the EU, the downgrade of the US credit rating, and volatility in the stock market, have led many to conclude the the global economic growth will remain slow for years. While this may be true on a macro scale, certain markets are well situated to outperform others and break out of the economic slump early. You know, places like Harrisonburg, a “Certified Business Location.” I’m not exactly sure what this means, but if they put it on a road sign on Route 81, then it must be something important. Therefore I think it’s safe to assume that the ‘burg is primed to be a center of job growth over the next 12-18 months. In fact, my conservative estimates have over 14 million people moving to the greater Harrisonburg area in search of certified business jobs. The population influx, combined with the existing poultry industry, will make the Shenandoah Valley the most important region in the new global economy and home to millions of valuable consumers.
Result: The 14 million television watching households in the greater Harrisonburg area put JMU smack in the middle of one of the country’s most valuable media markets.
Event 5: The NCAA declares forward pass illegal
The NCAA powers that be might appear to be soulless old white guys focused on nothing but the bottom line. The truth is that a vocal majority of them are actually former football players and die hard old school football traditionalists. And they definitely think high flying passing attacks are for sissies. They long to return to the days when football was test of brute force played by real men. We have it on good authority the way they will do this is by making the forward pass illegal. Programs that have relied on complex passing attacks will be caught off guard. Other teams who have shown a willingness to completely abandon the passing game, will be primed for success.
Result: Mickey Matthew’s conservative tendencies that have frustrated fans for years, suddenly are viewed as groundbreaking. JMU’s gameplan against William & Mary in 2010 is considered the Holy Grail of new football.
Obviously if things play out like this, every single super conference would be begging JMU to join. The suddenly innovative offensive philosophy and valuable media market the Dukes would bring to the table would be too much to resist. A few years ago I would have told you that JMU was years away from a BCS opportunity. It is clear I was wrong. All it’s going to take is for one school to make a move, the NCAA to sacrifice millions of dollars of future revenue by terminating a storied program, France assuming control of approximately 1/3 of the U.S., a massive population migration to the Valley, and a relatively minor rule change. That’s pretty much it. It’s practically a done deal.
Movin' on Down!
Ah, the good old RhodeI Rams. For many a year they’ve been a safe second choice to take the honors in the Reliably Crappy Derby. Put them in an Exacta with Towson and you’re a winner! But out of nowhere, literally nowhere, I mean they were shut out by FBS Buffalo and then lost to Fordham to start the season last year, the Rams snuck up on the conference last year with an impressive 4-4 mark in the CAA, including taking down heavyweights New Hampshire and Villanova. Their efforts not only earned second-year HC Joe Trainer CAA Coach of the Year honors, but also contributed to Dukes fans continuing to drink playoff Kool-Aid many weeks after we should’ve realized we were already dead.
But despite ten starters expected back on offense in 2011 and the conference’s most explosive special teams youngster in return man Travis Hurd, the deck will be stacked against them like never before and JMU Nation should be pleased to see them wrapping up the home slate this year. Here’s why:
1) Only 4 starters back on Defense from a team that gave up less than 20 only twice all season and NEVER less than 14 points. Remember, the schedule included Brown. Actually, maybe replacing the entire unit wouldn’t be a bad idea.
2) No more sneaking up on people. Between last year’s performance and the inexplicable smack coming out of the Kingston faithful this offseason, the CAA won’s sleep on the Rams this year and that can’t be good for a team steadily shedding scholarships over the next two seasons.
3) And why would they shed scholarships?! Because RhodeI has announced their moving down to the Northeast Conference (NEC) in 2013 to join power programs like Sacred Heart and Wagner. The NEC is actually an FCS conference, but they offer less schollies for football and Rhode Island will immediately become the big dog in the conference. While we’ll miss them in the CAA, hopefully the team that will be the focus of our final preview later this week will be ready to take their place as doormat #2 for decades to come.
The above photo is from VA Tech’s media day last week. It’s taken in jest and is poking fun at the media’s love affair with Tech’s QB of the future, Mr. Logan Thomas. Apparently humorous pictures like this are becoming a tradition for the Hokie program. I legitimately think it’s a pretty cool idea. First of all, it’s fun and that’s what college football really is all about. Second of all, it’s probably better than Tech’s other traditions such as drastically underperforming in big games and failing to meet its fans’ unrealistic expectations. If the Hokies really wanted to give college football fans a good laugh though, they could have just pulled this photo out of the archives.
Big East not the only one abandoning all geographic good sense
UMass’ announced defection to the FBS’ MAC in 2012 is one of the major storylines in the conference and will have both good and bad ramifications for the 2011 Dukes and their CAA brethren.
The Good
UMass should be extremely strong this year, but they are ineligible for both the CAA title and the FCS Playoffs now that they’ve announced their move to the FBS. They are playing an oddly “nationally” televised game against Holy Cross on the Thursday before most of college football kicks off to start the season which should be a big blowout and another chance to showcase the CAA (plus a great chance to starting getting used to all the weeknight games they’ll play in the cash-grubbing MAC). They’ll also be taking on rival UNH at Gillette Stadium again in the Colonial Clash which has the makings of a great tradition (if it continues after the UMass defection).
The Bad
UMass is going to be damn good and could really muck up the CAA race. If the Minutemen finish in the top three or four of the conference, an extra playoff berth for any conference teams ranked behind them could be extremely hard to come by, potentially hurting not only that specific team, but the CAA as a whole. Unfortunately, there’s just no way around this.
The other thing that scares the crap out of us is that UMass hosts the Dukes in the final game of the season. With no playoffs on tap, this will be not only senior night, but the super bowl of sorts for the Minutemen. The Dukes would be best served if UMass is struggling and cashing out by this point, but with all the talent they have on hand, this seems unlikely.
The Outlook
UMass returns 15 starters (6 off, 9 def) plus two new FBS transfers on offense. Pluse they return star linebacker and team leader Tyler Holmes to head that veteran defense. On offense, they return the best of all the Northeastern transfers from last year in RB Jonathan Hernandez, who has been near impossible to stop at both schools. Needless to say, an influx of talent in the freshman class after the FBS announcement could be a blessing or a curse, depending on how many of them are redshirted. If most are held back for next year, could be an awful thin bench in the event of injuries. To take the rampant, uninformed speculation even further, we’d have to guess interest in the program on-campus and among alums would spike a bit this year in anticipation of “bigger” things to come (yes, we’re mocking the MAC and hoping against hope JMU doesn’t make a similar low-budget move anytime soon). We fully expect the Minutemen to be a 7-9 win team challenging for the top of the standings, if not the official recognition as conference champs and we can only hope the Dukes finish at least one line above them in the final table so as to not further complicate any playoff decisions.
The JMU Dukes have been selected to play in the 2013 Governor’s Holiday Hoops Classic. Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell helped put together the event which will match-up 8 teams from the state in two double-headers. The games will take place in the Richmond Coliseum in December of 2012 and 2013. The first year will feature George Mason vs Richmond and Virginia vs ODU. The following year VCU will play VA Tech and our Dukes will face off against Hampton.
This obviously isn’t going to generate the sort of buzz that the announcement of JMU playing WVU at FedEx. It’s pretty exciting in its own right though and a great event for college hoops fans. There is a lot of good basketball being played in the Commonwealth and not just by the big boys from the ACC school. Despite what some might tell you, the “little guys” (in name only) have been setting the pace recently. Kudos to the Governor for creating an event that finally gets the Hokies and Hoos on the court with some CAA counterparts.
And it’s great that JMU gets to participate. Hampton might not have the profile of an ACC school, but the Pirates have played in the NCAA tournament 4 times in the past decade. In case you need reminding, JMU hasn’t made the tourney since 1994. As Dukes fans we’re in no position to complain about the match-up. Downplay the draw if you’d like, but doing so is exactly the same sort of thing we all bitch about when big schools overlook the Dukes.
This is really a terrific event and I’m glad the Governor got behind it. It’s going to be great to see all these school’s fans come together as the teams battle it out for bragging rights. There’s no telling how this thing will evolve, but I imagine that if fans get behind it, it could turn into something like the Big Five. Of course this would be a version played in a beautiful state in front of friendly and sane people, instead of one played in Philly. Same basic idea though.
Lots of love for UNH, always too much love for UNH. Most years, this little engine that could from this afterthought of a colony manages to sneak under the radar. In past years, playing a weak schedule from the former CAA North and avoiding FBS games like the plague, combined with a pass-happy offense and continuity in the coaching ranks has been enough to keep the Wildcats in the playoff picture most every year. And this year they get the Dukes at home late in the season to go along with their normal offensive efficiency. Unfortunatley for them, they travel to William & Gary, UMassholes, and the Ticks (UR) in three of their first four CAA games and despite all the high hopes and the “sellouts” in the high school stadium (like a PVI high school stadium), their season is going down in flames.
Despite the usual northern cheerleading (we're looking at you Defiantly Dutch), the streak is over!
I have no rationale for this, but WM, UD, UNH, and JMU are considered by the “experts” (i.e. Phil Steele – don’t ever listen to a damn thing associated with Terrance Thomas) to be the favorites this year and we just know one of them is going to suck ass (see JMU 2010). This year it’s going to be UNH. As much as I hope it’s the Blue Chickens from the Toll Booth State (UD), it’s more likely the gig of pretending to be an actual CAA power is up for the Wildcats. They lost RJ Toman at QB, the defense has always been suspect (that’s right, ya suspect, yeah you, ‘retainahhh’). Incredibly, UNH has put in an appearance in the 1-AA/FCS Playoffs for the last 7 straight years. Yes, JMU, UD, Liberty, and ODU have all been trying much harder to their great discredit academically and morally, but none have been able to manage this feat. Of course, this always ends in the first round, but this year the streak itself is over!
Why We’re So Confident
No more Toman, only five starters returning on each side of the ball, and the always overrated Defense (yes, we know about DE McNally and LB Evans). This team just doesn’t have it. And despite the noon kickoff, which JMU Athletic Director Jeff Bourne wisely avoided at long last this year durin the home schedule, the Dukes are going to wreck these jokers.
What We Love
We love the new Colonial Clash! Last year UNH and UMass started up a rivalry game at Gillette Stadium, home of the NFL’s New England Patriots. This game seems to take its cues from the “Classics” of HBCU lore like Grambling/Southern or Hampton/Norfolk St. (go Spartans!), and seems destined to attract greater fan interest in the Northeast even after UMass joins the FBS’s MAC next year. We can only hope something similar to JMU/WVU at FedEx also becomes de rigeur in the years to come.
2011 Forecast
No nice way to say this. Here’s the one CAA spot we disagree with the great Phil Steele. UNH goes 6-5 while really missing both RJ Toman and the playoffs.
We can finally see the light at the end of this tunnel. The JMU Dukes take the field today for the first practice of the 2011 football season. Keeping with recent tradition, the big question on everyone’s mind is “Who is going to play QB?”. That is far from the only question that the coaching staff will be looking to answer however. Here are a couple of other stories we’ll be watching in the coming weeks as the Dukes prepare to bounce back from two relatively disappointing seasons.
Can the Offensive Line Step Up Its Game?
JMU’s offense was justly criticized last year for well, its general ineptitude. Much of that criticism was directed at quarterback Drew Dudzik, who struggled to live up to the high expectations fans had for him. The Dukes’ offensive line wasn’t exactly dominating in its own right though, with a couple young guys thrust into starting roles. Now fans will get to see if the young guys who took their lumps last year can step up and become a force this year. Senior Roane Babington was picked to be an All-CAA performer, and he could have AJ Scott (who still hasn’t been declared eligible after transferring from Marshall) right there with him. They’ve got enough experience to be a great unit. If they do, the Dukes offense should improve dramatically. If not, it could be another long year.
Who Will Carry the Rushing Load?
Jamal Sullivan led the Dukes in rushing last year as a senior, but he’s now gone. So is second leading rushing Scott Noble, who chipped in with 3 TDs. That leaves a big gaping hole in the backfield and no heir apparent at tailback. Redshirt Freshman, Dejor Simmons is the one guy that I’m most excited about. Simmons showed game-breaking ability in high school, rushing for over 1,600 yards and 25 TDs as a senior. What really has fans anxious to see him on the field is his speed though. He won the Virginia State Championship in the 100 meter dash (in 10.43 seconds!) and might be the fastest Duke since Scotty McGee.
Can Mickey Matthews Succeed as a Playcaller?
Fans who weren’t blaming the Dukes’ offensive woes on Drew Dudzik last year, were often blaming them offensive coordinator Jeff Durden. It’s not clear though if Dudzik and the offense struggled because of Durden’s ridiculously conservative play calling, or if Durden couldn’t trust Dudzik and the offense to run anything other than the most basic plays (bubble screen anyone?). Whatever the cause, Coach Matthews assumed control of the offensive playcalling heading into this season. As the head coach, Matthews fingerprints were all over the offense last year anyway. Now that he’s calling the plays though, the spotlight will be shining on him even stronger. He’s got plenty of weapons and presumably a better QB. Can he push the right buttons so the offense carries it’s weight this year?
Things are getting really exciting here at JMUSB HQ. We’re officially under the one month mark till the Dukes kick off the football season, there’s a field hockey scrimmage to attend at American University in couple weeks (what?), ESPN is mentioning former Dukes like Scotty McGee in training camp updates, and the bittersweet moment when the webcam shuts down is nearly upon us as New Bridgeforth is just to about to open her sweet new doors for her first practice. Seriously, as excited as I am for the new stadium I have to sheepishly admit it will be a tad misty in the office when they close down the webcam after two solid years of knowing regardless of what’s going on at work, I could always sneak a quick peek and go to my happy place.
You know you're in trouble when your O-lineman is your star player. Oh wait, scratch that, it's really cool and that's why the Dukes also have no skill position players in preseason promo materials.
But alas, in the interest of completing our annual previews, we still have to cover the Towson Tigers. Well sort of. Because really, do you want to hear about their annual quest for a single CAA win (can you say ODU?! man, now that’s gonna be a game) and their continued wasting of a large, athletics-interested student body and sweet facilities? JMU did almost achieve their lowest moment in years when they needed some good breaks to sneak by the Tigers 17-10 last year in a game that nearly ruined a weekened in St. Michael’s with the Mrs. when I was losing it following this hideous affair on the cell. Almost ended up in the serious doghouse when she returned from the bathroom at dinner to find me clutching the tablecloth and muttering curses to the horror of the table next to us. That said, the worst thing about the upcoming season is that Towson is not on the Dukes’ schedule. Urgghhh, big-time bad break. But this year’s Towson team starts with Morgan St. and has Colgate in Week 3. Better get a W by then or they are in serious trouble of going for another winless season. Not that a healthy Tigers squad led by fiesty second-year Coach Rob Ambrose (poor guy) couldn’t compete with that team from Norfolk this year, but healthy’s going to be a tall order after TWO FBS games. Yes, the money will be amazing and likely life-sustaining for a program with very little revenue from football and basketball (though Lax is nearly a revenue sport in suburban B’more), and playing Maryland should be fun for their fans, but adding LSU, yes the Geaux Tigers LSU, to the schedule two weeks prior to the matchup with the Terps, is more than Iwould wish on anyone. Could be a tough second half after those two demoralizing Saturdays.
What we Think for 2011 Towson
Not much. Dukes aren’t playing them and their is zippy chance they’ll be in contention late. But hopefully they can steal a game or two from other CAA foes to help JMU’s cause and it would be SWEEET if we could mock ODU for losing to Towson after all the nonsense coming offf the peninsula.
The Skinny: Richmond’s football program dates all the way back to 1881. For almost that entire history, the Ticks played consistently mediocre football. Dave Clawson got things pointed in the right direction, coaching the team to 3 winning seasons between 2004 and 2007. In 2008 Mike London took over and elevated the program to new heights. Richmond won the National Championship in 2008 and had a team that might have been even better in 2009. They racked up 24 wins (13 in the CAA) in that short 2 year span. Then London got tapped to Coach UVA and Latrell Scott had the unenviable opportunity to try to fill his shoes. Scott’s coaching was often criticized, but he did lead the team to a 6-5 record last year. And he did it while battling injuries and being forced to play 4 QBs. So the question remains. Is Richmond an FCS power that took some lumps last year or were the London years an anomaly?
Sometimes Life Throws You a Curveball: Picture yourself as a hot-shot QB heading into your redshirt sophomore year ready to assume the role of starter for the USC Trojans. After a monster spring, you suffer an injury in the preseason and lose your starting spot to a true freshman. Just as your dreams are slipping away, that same freshman gets hurt, you’re vaulted back into the spotlight and named the starter for the PAC 10 opener against an overmatched Washington Huskies team. 60 minutes of terrible football later, you’ve just thrown the fewest passing yards of any USC QB under Pete Carrol, your team has lost, and you’ve earned yourself a permanent seat on the pine. Bim, bam, boom. Three years later and you’re entering your final season of college eligibility, attempting to come back from a nasty knee injury, and eager to prove yourself by quarterbacking the Richmond Spiders. Ladies and gentleman, the Aaron Corp story.
What They Bring Back: The Spiders bring back 8 offensive starters, highlighted by the QB featured above, Mr. Aaron Corp. The USC transfer came to Richmond with a lot of hype, but suffered a season ending knee injury in a week 4 loss against New Hampshire. He had played decent (not great) football up to that point, but if he lives up to the hype from the past, it will mean good things for the Spiders. His top target should be Tre Gray, a talented WR who made All CAA first team last year, despite only having 2 TDs. Fullback Kendal Gaskins also earned All CAA and will be back. Defensively, the Spiders are only returning 5 players, highlighted by Junior LB Darius McMillan. He lead the Spiders with 89 tackles last year. On special teams, Wil Kamin is back and is expected to be one of the top place kickers in the CAA.
What They Lose: The Spiders have some big holes to fill on the defense, with 5 starters lost from last year’s team. McMillan might have led the team in tackles, but his fellow starting linebacker, Eric McBride, was the heart and soul of last year’s defense. McBride was outstanding all year and shared the CAA Defensive Player of the Year with UMass’s Tyler Holmes. They’ll also be replacing half of the D-line, including All-CAA performer Martin Parker, who had a team high 5.5 sacks. On the offensive side of the ball, the Spiders lose their leading rusher, Tyler Kirchoff. However, the Richmond running game wasn’t that great (it sucked) and Kirchoff averaged fewer than 50 yards a game. The other 2 losses are on the o-line including All-CAA Second Team selection Drew Lachenmayer.
Season Outlook: If Corp can come back from injury and show the form that made him one of the top QB recruits in the country coming out of high school, Richmond could surprise some folks. If he merely returns to the form he displayed before his injury though, the Spiders appear destined to return to their mediocre roots. The rushing attack is suspect and they’ll be introducing 4 new starters in the front 7 on D. And the defense wasn’t even that great to begin with last year. Look for the Spiders to hover around .500 for much of the season and finish in the middle of the CAA pack.
Above is a picture of the JMU scoreboard that was in place last season, featuring the one and only “mini-tron”. Believe it or not, that ridiculous little video monitor was a very big deal when it was installed. The past few years it’s just looked sort of sad though. Well that was then, below is now.
I’d say that’s a bit of an upgrade, huh?
