The Basics
Matchup: #3 JMU Dukes (2-0, 1-0 CAA) at #9 Weber St. Wildcats (1-1, 0-0 Big Sky)
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. EDT. Saturday, September 19, 2021, Stewart Stadium, Ogden, UT
Weather: Cloudy, chance of a stray shower or storm. Probably in 60s at kickoff.
Broadcast: ESPN+, it’s a miracle.
How Weber St. Can Win
Avoid a shootout and get at least two big defensive/special teams plays. The fall 2021 Wildcats are still a bit of an unknown after losing respectably but about as expected to FBS Utah and then boatracing transitioning-from-D2 Dixie St. last week. But having seen them go absolutely toe-to-toe with the Dukes twice – with even bigger stakes – in the last few years, we all know what Weber does well. First, they compete every play and are extremely well-coached. They’re one of the few teams in the Houston/Cignetti era that has truly competed in the trenches with JMU and we don’t expect anything different here. But the top-end offensive talent has always favored the Dukes with Riley Stapleton, Marcus Marshall, etc. eventually finding ways to break through. That said, the Spring JMU team struggled mightily on specials where Weber excels and if they got a runback (as they did vs. Utah in Week 1) and maybe one other huge defensive turnover or score, this could get as dicey as the 2017 game in a hurry.
Player to Watch: QB Randall Johnson – all eyes will be on the former dual-threat juco standout in his first start. He threw a game-winning hail mary back in the spring and performed well last week when starter Bronson Barron went down, but he hasn’t seen anything like the JMU defense and decision-making will be crucial to the Wildcats’ chances.
How JMU Can Win
Force turnovers and don’t leave this till the 4th quarter. There’s been a whole lot of talk among JMU fans and media this week (and even through this summer as we got excited for this matchup) about the elevation in Ogden and how best to prepare for it. But the best way to handle it is truly to not have to rely on a huge fourth quarter to win this thing. The longer this one is close and cagey, the more that favors a motivated-by-two-tough-playoff-losses home team. But if the Dukes defense can make some big negative plays early-ish (think sacks or even better forced turnovers), any extra and/or gift-wrapped opportunities for this JMU offense will go a long way towards forcing Weber’s gameplan towards speeding up in a way that probably tilts the field towards the Dukes.
Players to watch: WR Scott Bracey – If the Wildcats roll their safety towards Wells as we think they will (and as they did towards Brandon Polk in 2019), Bracey will need to step up on the opposite side. LB Kelvin Azanama – LB may not be the Dukes deepest group on defense and the leader will need to hang in there for as long as possible at altitude.
Record Breakers
JMU K Ethan Ratke will break the all-time FCS record for field goals made with one good kick. On the other side, Weber St. kick returner Rashid Shaheed will be looking for his astounding 7th kick return TD.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
The rare 8 p.m. kickoff means you can go about as big and heavy as you want to this week. And since it’s Utah, those of you lucky enough to be there may be able to get your hands on some western beers we don’t see back here. Among those, New Mexico’s La Cumbre Brewing’s Malpais Stout is the best of the lot the darker beer folks out there. This one is just stunning.
Official JMUSB Prediction
Dukes 31, Wildcats 20. This is no easy prediction or game but we haven’t seen anything from Weber to think they’re going to pile up points against the Dukes. The QB uncertainty only adds to that even if there’s a special teams big play somewhere along the way. We might actually be a little higher on the Dukes offensive prospects but the Wildcats probably know a shootout is unwise and Cignetti and company never play for style points. If JMU can ever get clear by more than a score, we’re thinking they salt the earth with Latrelle as long as they can.
JMU moved to 2-0 in the 2021 season with a dominant win over the Maine Black Bears. The game was as one-sided as the score indicates. JMU did a lot of things well. A lot of things. We’re sure there are fans out there who have complaints or manage to find things to get worked up about. But we don’t. It was one of the most impressive CAA openers we can recall seeing JMU play in years. They outgained Maine 512 yards to 194 yards in total offense. Cole Johnson marched the team down the field for a touchdown on the opening drive and that was pretty much all she wrote. The outcome was never in doubt. Here are three quick thoughts on the win.
Cole Outstanding Again
Cole had a terrific performance in week one. It was hard to read too much into it, given the quality of the Morehead State team. Maine is a CAA program that gave a Top 10 Delaware fits last week. And Cole carved them apart. He completed 25 of 30 attempts for 379 yards and 4 touchdowns. And he made it look easy. Ever since he returned after losing his job to Gage Moloney, Johnson has looked like a completely different player. He’s confident, poised, and making nothing but good decisions. In the beginning of Spring ball, he looked like the game was too fast for him He looked like a deer in the headlights and was crippled by poor decisions and a fear of making mistakes. Now he’s dropping dimes into receivers hands with ease. It literally looks like he and receivers are running routes without defenders sometimes. His transformation is remarkable. And we love it.
Appreciate What We’re Seeing With Antwane Wells Jr.
This kid is special. Just plain and simple. Maine could not cover him yesterday. They could not. He went off hauling in 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 TDs. Most receivers would be thrilled to beat their defender and create 3 or 4 feet of separation once or twice a game. Wells seemed to do it on 75% of his routes yesterday. There was nothing Maine could do to slow him down. One one route the defender attempted to initiate contact and wrap him up. All he did was shed the guy, catch the ball, and scamper in for a 53 yard touchdown. It is very hard to watch Wells play and not get overly excited about his potential. JMU has been blessed with a number of outstanding receivers in its history. Wells really could end up being better than all of them.
Defense is Clicking
We were optimistic that the Dukes D would hit its stride earlier this season due to playing in the Spring. Through two games, that certainly appears to be the case. Yes, we could pick nits about the number of penalties on that side of the ball, but all things considered, the unit looks great. In week one against Morehead State, JMU’s talent advantage was overwhelming. The Dukes were perhaps even more dominant against a solid Maine squad however. Maine caught a bad break with starting QB Joe Fagnano getting knocked out early. But as distasteful as it might sound to point this out, his injury was a sign of how relentless the JMU defense was all game. They managed 11 tackles for loss and 4 sacks. The D-line was getting penetration consistently and Heatherman created pressure with blitzes all day. There’s a ton of depth. And we’re seeing guys who’ve patiently waited for larger roles, take advantage of the reps they’ve earned this season.
The Basics
Matchup: Maine Black Bears (0-1, 0-1 CAA) at #3 JMU Dukes (1-0, 0-0 CAA)
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. EDT. Saturday, September 11, 2021, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown, VA
Weather: Beautiful! Sunny, high 79
Broadcast: NBCSportsWashington+ (and Flo :()
How Maine Can Win
Throw it around the yard for big plays and outscore the Dukes. Maine played a strange game last week. They were hammered by Delaware in three quarters. But oh that one quarter was special. A bevy of deep passes connected against a strong Hens defense and they blocked a punt to score 24 unanswered in the 2nd quarter and take a 24-17 lead into the break. Those sound like exactly the kind of things that JMU has been vulnerable to throughout 2021, including the Spring season’s special teams issues and last week’s flurry of PI and holding calls against the back end of the defense. But the Black Bears also gave up 34 points to a UD offense that may be rather pedestrian and is certainly not JMU. Our guess is that if Maine is going to win this thing, they’ll need to keep scoring throughout and make this a shootout. Like many teams this year, Maine returns 20 starters from the Spring, including veteran QB Joe Fagnano. On defense, the Bears got a huge boost from graduate transfer LB Ray Miller, who came straight from Campbell to have 12 tackles last week.
How JMU Can Win
Pressure the QB and avoid penalties. Maine was feast or famine on offense last week. If they hit a couple big plays, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. But JMU just needs to stay away from helping them out with more penalties on defense. If the rush can get home, or even just speed the Bears up, there should be huge plays available for the defense at some point. Our money is on something big from Que Reid again. On offense, just keep building on last week’s performance. Oh yeah, protect your kickers!
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Brothers Craft Brewing’s Proud and True Dukes Lager. I know we’ve had a long-standing kinship with another Harrisonburg brewery, but for our first preview this year, how can we pass up this obvious and wonderful choice. It’s odd to say, but thankfully this is a straightforward, no-frills lawnmower beer. In other words, perfect for a tailgating session. Folks will argue over quality no matter what, but the marketing, licensing (tee shirts in the bookstore!), and artwork for this one just crush us right in the feels. And mainly we’re just so glad that our local Giants, Total Wines, etc. have a purple alternative to that icky maroon/orange beer Hardywood swill that’s been coming out of RVA.
Official JMUSB Prediction
Dukes 38, Maine 17. We’re tempted to go bigger on this because we really feel good about this Dukes team regardless of the doubters that are creeping around with the injury report, but this is important conference play already and if JMU opens a lead up at all this week, just seems more likely they’ll salt this away rather than going for fireworks like last week.
There’s no easy way to start this, so let’s just rip the band aid off and go. JMU blew a 21 point second half lead and fell to Sam Houston State by the score of 38-35. It’s a loss that sent many fans over the edge. It’s unclear if or when they’ll return to sanity. There’s no sugarcoating it. It was a devastating loss. There’s no good way to spin blowing a three touchdown lead. There’s no rationalizing it away. It was ugly and it’s going to leave a bad taste in people’s mouths for a long while.
While it was definitely brutal, one loss does not define a program. One loss, even one featuring a catastrophic collapse, does not invalidate everything JMU accomplished in this pandemic season. One loss, does not mean the program has plunged from previous highs and charted a course for mediocrity. It probably just means that they got beat. It happens. We don’t like it when it does, but it’s not the end of JMU football as an FCS power.
There is much to like about the JMU fanbase. But there has been a discouraging trend toward more and more JMU fans being pathologically opposed to giving opponents any credit whatsoever. Every loss is due solely to JMU’s failures. Plays fail not because the other team does something well, but because the Dukes’ coaches are clueless. In too many fans eyes, the Dukes win because the competition isn’t good enough, and lose because they beat themselves. Things aren’t always so black and white. Sometimes there are shades of grey.
In the loss to Sam Houston State, JMU jumped out to a big halftime lead. The Dukes looked like they were Frisco bound. They were sitting on a comfortable 27-10 lead late in the third quarter. Then bad stuff happened. Lots of very bad stuff. It was the single most frustrating stretch of football that I can remember watching. Jequez Ezzard put the JMU secondary on skates, as he scampered for a 69 yard TD. Not even two minutes later, he took a punt back to the house. The ensuing kickoff got caught up in the wind, landed in between the returners and the up men, and then bounced straight up in the air and Sam Houston recovered. The Bearkats promptly punched it in for six. But they weren’t done. On JMU’s next possession, a pass bounced off the receivers hands and right into the arms of the Sam Houston defender. They punched that one in for six as well. In approximately five minutes of game time, Sam Houston had turned a 27-10 deficit into a 38-27 lead. JMU punched back and scored another TD, but then missed a desperation FG into the wind and Sam Houston held on. Oh, and Cole Johnson got hurt on the last drive, forcing a cold Gage Moloney to come in to try to finish a potentially game winning drive.
Mistakes were made people. We’re not denying that. The special teams were not very special. The coaches wasted timeouts. Defenders missed tackles and committed terrible penalties. JMU battled back instead of laying down though and could have won it. But they didn’t. They lost. They lost in excruciating fashion. However, as bad as it was, the overreaction by much of the JMU fanbase might have been even worse.
JMU is a program that expects to compete for championships. The Dukes fell short this year. Not that short, but short. And apparently losing on the road in the semi-finals is a fireable offense to a lot of fans. Fortunately, the JMU athletic department is not run by a bunch of drunken troglodytes with Twitter muscles, so Coach Cignetti will be back in the Fall. As he should be. He didn’t have a perfect game. He’ll take some deserved criticism for the collapse. He needs to overhaul special teams. But he also deserves a hell of a lot of credit for the job he did this season.
JMU lost a lot of talent due to injuries, transfers, and graduations. Cignetti still managed to lead a starting lineup filled with backups all the way to the semi-finals. He coached up a QB who was so shaky he probably would have lost his starting job forever if not for Covid, and helped him play the best football of his life in the playoffs. He successfully lead his team through multiple cancellations and pauses during a global pandemic. But he’s too conservative offensively, so let’s fire him. Never mind that his “conservative” approach helped JMU out-gain Sam Houston 430 yards to 332 yards while averaging over 16 yards a completion. And he inherited a machine that could coach itself, so let’s fire him. Nevermind that the “machine” he inherited was coming off a season where it followed two losses (including one to his Elon team) in CAA play by bowing out to Colgate in the second round of the playoffs. Cignetti has flaws. So did Mike Houston, Everett Withers, Mickey Matthews and every other coach ever. Like a lot of other successful coaches though, Cignetti happens to have a great many strengths as well.
JMU let one get away yesterday. There’s no denying it. And it hurts. Badly. But let’s take a deep breath. There is a lot to be happy about with the season JMU just had. There were struggles early, but the players responded. Young guys and backups worked through some challenging circumstances and improved. That’s typically a sign of good coaching. So we can look at everything that went wrong yesterday and ignore the good that came before it, and conclude the program is a dumpster fire. Or we can look at the total body of work, be mad/frustrated/despondent about yesterday, and still be excited about the state of the program heading into the Fall.
The Basics
Matchup: #3 JMU Dukes (7-0, 3-0 CAA) at #2 Sam Houston Bearkats (8-0, 6-0 Southland)
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. EDT. Saturday, May 8, 2021, Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 84
Broadcast: ABC – this is outstanding!
Boys in the Desert: JMU -1, O/U 47
How Sam Houston Can Win
Play their game and don’t get caught up worrying about the bigger picture. Sam Houston is the first opponent JMU has faced this year where we can’t say with confidence that if both teams play their best games, the Dukes are a heavy favorite. Sam Houston under former Delaware Coach KC Keeler have made a point of rebuilding their program from the inside out to be more physical by following the model set by NDSU and JMU. Last week’s ousting of the Bison went a long way towards helping the Bearkats (seriously, with a “k”) shed the #SoftHouston label that Valley and CAA fans have been throwing at them for a decade – with the high-water mark for this shade being the 2016 playoff shellacking in Harrisonburg for a then-undefeated and top-ranked (not seeded, sound familiar Dukes fans?) high-flying offensive show.
But this week Sam Houston needs to forget all of that – the NDSU win, the 2016 humiliation at JMU and the accompanying trash-talk, and the chance to return to the FCS title game – this time against a non-dynastic opponent – and just play their game. The Bearkats need to hit a few downfield throws, run enough power to keep the Dukes honest, and trust speedy dual-threat QB Eric Schmid to make JMU pay when things break down. On the other side, Sam was able to shut down NDSU’s running game last week, a task made much easier because NDSU provided essentially zero threat in the passing game. The game plan this week is likely the same and Sam’s best chance remains stacking the box and hoping Cole has a bad day and/or their corners can hold up against a receiving corps loaded with threats.
Oh yeah, it also wouldn’t hurt the Bearkats chances to not give up multiple special teams TDs the way they did last week.
How JMU Can Win
Sling it! For real, it may be time to #passmore. Obviously JMU wants to run the ball like always and prove even this bulked-up version of the Bearkats can be bullied, but if Sam Houston puts eight in the box as often as they did last week, we could see a repeat of the first half against VMI a couple weeks ago with the Dukes looking to exploit one-on-one matchups on the outside with Wells Jr., Thornton, and Bracey. Addtionally, with the growing volume of jaw-dropping gametape on Wells, Jr., if Sam rolls any help his way, could we see more looks at Clayton Cheatham in the middle or even Vanhorse/Hamilton in the slot or the rarely-used screen game a bit?!
On defense, even if they can’t get massive pressure, JMU’s front seven needs to stay home to make sure Schmid can’t break huge plays with his feet. On the back end of the defense, the Dukes secondary just needs to make plays if (when?) Schmid’s occasionally suspect throwing gives them opportunities.
And Special Teams! Last week we had even more fiascos on specials but the Dukes avoided the worst of the potential consequences. This week actually presents an opportunity against an equally mistake-prone SHSU unit and the Dukes need to at least break even in this facet.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Bear Republic Racer 5 IPA. Of course we still love IPAs and the kick from the higher ABV, but semi-final Saturday with JMU kicking off the second of two national tv games calls for something without all the hipster haze of the New England variety that only leaves you feeling like you’ve eaten a burrito or two. This one is a classic; just west-coast smooth and ready to rock a celebration Saturday!
Official JMUSB Prediction
This has the feel of a great one. A hungry rebuilt Sam Houston in their building defending their unblemished home FCS playoff record against JMU, a true FCS powerhouse finally finding its rhythm, and its swagger, at the perfect point of this Spring season. We think JMU has a bit more firepower to find the clutch drive late when needed.
JMU 27, Sam Houston 23
Dukes4 is a 1979 JMU grad, (with honorary JMU rooting wife) and their three gainfully employed, JMU alumni kids. He won the prediction contest for the VMI game and sent in this fun guest post reminding us that it’s a small world when it comes to JMU sports.
Thanks again to Andrea Clay for sharing her poignant guest post last week. During the podcast Rob and Todd noted they had the opportunity to meet Andrea and her husband and how it’s been cool to engage the JMU football nation over the years as the face of the JMU sports blog.
That comment got me thinking about the friends we have made and how we missed the 2020 fall tailgating season. Moreover, we looked back at some interesting people and characters who crossed our path while enjoying JMU football. We are at a point in our lives that allows for travel to away games and spending Saturday night in the burg. This offers more opportunity to chat-it -up all things JMU and especially football. Here is a smattering of people we’ve met.
read more…
The Basics
Matchup: #7 North Dakota Fighting Hawks (5-1, 4-1Missouri Valley) at #3 JMU Dukes (6-0, 3-0 CAA)
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday, May 2, 2021, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown, VA
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high 82 heading down to 57 but humidity increasing throughout the game from 41 to 61%
Broadcast: ESPN2!!!
Boys in the Desert: JMU -2.5, O/U 52.5
How UND Can Win
Hold up in the trenches and play with their usual near-flawless execution. UND is an upgraded version of VMI. Extremely well-coached and creative in all the ways that have given JMU problems against that other team from North Dakota but with better players than the Keydets had last week. If they execute as normal, it seems almost guaranteed they’ll catch JMU out with big plays on offense and special teams at least 2-3 times. The key for the Hawks is not letting JMU do what that other team did to them early in the season – namely just bully them on both lines and grind them to dust.
How JMU Can Win
To paraphrase Virginia’s own former NASCAR star Ward Burton, “Hammer Down!” (and if you remember the accent with which that was said on the last lap at Daytona, it’s even better). If ever a game called for the Dukes to bow up and push people around, even at the expense of aesthetics and salty fans who still want to #passmore, it was this one. JMU needs to grind and limit mistakes. This could be the rare exception where less possession is better for JMU than its opponent – particularly if that means JMU is methodically running the ball and controlling clock and the ball. Defensively, the headline matchup is JMU’s strong run defense versus UND’s star RB Otis Weah, but it’s the Dukes ability to not get caught too many times in mis-direction and play-calling on the back end that will dicate their success.
And Special Teams! At the very least not losing the specials matchup is critical this week. Last week’s onside kick fiasco, which of course was a repeat of previous fiascos in big games, simply cannot happen. That NDSU fake FG from the last title game – UND will have watched that tape and it simply cannot happen. Coach Cain needs to have his group ready with no excuses for mental mistakes more than ever.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Three Notch’d I’d Rather Beer Fishing Lager – Three Notch’d (you know the one local brewery you can get at BFS) has a collaboration beer with our friends over at Mossy Creek Fly Fishing and it’s perfect for this unique Sunday Night Football experience. It’s an easy-drinking, low ABV lager released this spring that you can enjoy during the FCS national-tv triple-header and still be ready for work on Monday. And you can find them around the Valley (the real Valley) now! This one is legit.
Official JMUSB Prediction
No logic this week. Just mindset and motivation. We think the Dukes are finally ready to uncork one of those vintage JMU performances after this insane year.
JMU 42, UND 20
JMU is moving on to a quarterfinal matchup against North Dakota. We’re excited for the special Sunday night game and feeling pretty confident about our Dukes. But we want to know how you think the game will play out. Leave a comment below with your prediction for Sunday’s game. The person who comes closest to nailing it (winner & score) will get to write a guest post. It’s just that easy. So give us your predictions and Go Dukes!
JMU opened up the 2021 FCS Playoffs (Spring Edition) with a 31-24 win over VMI. Let’s repeat the last part. JMU picked up a win. And now the Dukes are moving on to the quarterfinals to face North Dakota. VMI proved to be a very tough out. The Keydets were well coached and they came ready to play. JMU showed flashes of greatness, but also had more than a few warts on display. Jawon Hamilton and Percy O Agyei-Obese went for 171 and 110 yard respectively to pace JMU. But truth be told it was far from an overall “A” effort from the coaches and players. Again though, they won the dang game.
While we’ve been accustomed to watching the Dukes on cruise control for the first few rounds of the playoffs, this was something different. This Spring season has been challenging for a whole litany of reasons. JMU has played well at times, but due to the stops and starts, the Dukes never got on an extended roll. They just keep winning anyway. We can pick things apart as much as we want, but doing so seems a little misguided given the circumstances. In this weird Spring format, perhaps it’s more important for teams to simply find a way to grind out wins and not worry about how they look doing so.
Let’s face it, there are no style points in football. We would have loved it if JMU won by 4 or 5 touchdowns and turned it into a laugher. But they didn’t. They beat a well prepared team, despite turning the ball over multiple times and making some questionable decisions. There are at most 3 more games left this season. Personally, we think it’s time we accept that this team has flaws. It has flaws and no losses though.
The fact of the matter is this 2021 JMU Spring Football squad is never going to beat the 2016 team. Or the 2019 team. They’re also not going to lose to them, because the teams will never play. It’s fun to debate how different JMU teams stack up against each other. It’s also ultimately kind of pointless. This year’s team is not as good as a number of JMU teams from the past. We get it and we won’t argue otherwise. It doesn’t need to be though. On Saturday, it just had to be better than VMI and it was. And this Sunday it just needs to be better than North Dakota. And we’ll take things from there.
The Dukes under Cignetti are nothing like the Mike Houston JMU teams. They’re not even that similar to the 2019 Cignetti team. It’s a totally different approach. Everyone likes to say that JMU doesn’t rebuild, it reloads, but the fact is that the Dukes had to replace a ton of great players. And they had to do it on the fly during the weirdest football season of our lifetimes. And they just keep winning, despite looking more than shaky at times. At a certain point, it’s probably best if we focus and appreciate that, instead of fooling ourselves into thinking they’re going to evolve into something they’re not. This JMU isn’t likely to blow teams out and win going away from here on. But they’re still playing and they definitely have a chance to keep winning. Style points or now style points.
And suddenly all the nonsense falls away. The potential insanity of a spring season, transfer portals, basically everything in the world for 2020-21. And now it’s just the playoffs! In four short weeks, the sun could be shining on a Dukes team in Frisco. In three weeks, the Bison themselves could be at Bridgeforth. Next week, a chance to start shutting up the MVFC could be on the line. But none of that matters because a very old rival comes to town for the first time in many years this week with all of that at stake.
The Basics
Matchup: #11 Virginia Military Institute Keydets (6-1, 6-1 SoCon) at #3 JMU Dukes (5-0, 3-0 CAA)
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. EDT. Saturday April 24, 2021, Bridgeforth Stadium, Rocktown, VA
Weather: Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon. High 59F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.
Broadcast: ESPN3
Boys in the Desert: All oddsmakers agree that JMU should be a heavy favorite over VMI – either 14 or 14.5-point favorites (according to Sports Betting Dime). But when it comes to betting the moneyline (i.e. JMU to win by any margin), the odds vary drastically. JMU is as short as -800 and as long as -560. That means bettors would have to risk 42.8% more at certain sportsbooks to obtain the same return.
How VMI Can Win
Be more than happy to be here and force JMU to outscore them. First and foremost, the Keydets need to lock in the game itself and make sure they aren’t merely celebrating so many firsts in this special spring season for the boys from Lexington. First FCS playoff appearance, first trip to new Bridgeforth, first SoCon title in 40 years, first win over El Cid in longer than they’d like to admit. All of that was nice last week and will be even nicer over scotch this summer, but if they want to keep achieving firsts, they need to be focused on a JMU team that is starting to find it’s fully operational form after lots of fits and starts this spring.
And make no mistake, a 6-1 SoCon champ can beat JMU. But VMI probably can’t do it in a 16-10 grinder. If they’re going to win, VMI needs to force JMU to play their way. They need a game with lots of possessions, lots of plays run, and lots of opportunities to trick the Dukes’ defense and bust big plays. The headline-drawing matchup all of us fans are looking forward to is VMI’s Air Raid offense, with all its schematic creativity and plethora of weapons led by 6’4″ WR Jakub Harres, against JMU’s vaunted defense led by CAA Defensive Player of the Year Mike Greene. But in reality, that matchup could be a wash with VMI getting theirs so to speak while also giving the Dukes a few chances for gamechanging plays. This game is more likely to come down to the other side of the ball for both teams. Put simply, unless VMI can get off to a blisteringly fast start with a multi-score lead, then their defense is going to have to show they can hold up to JMU’s bruising running game and its constant attempt to grind teams into dust by later in the game. The Keydet defense cannot allow 2 or 3 long drives that keep their O off the field.
How JMU Can Win
Don’t believe the hype, DO NOT turn the ball over, and play with the same level of gameplanning, execution, and ruthlessness they have against William & Mary and Richmond the last month. First, the Dukes need to throw out all past conceptions of VMI as a “lesser” FCS team. Any 6-1 SoCon team, regardless of recent history or the color of the uniform, is capable of winning at this stage and needs to be taken seriously.
Second, JMU needs to control the ball, the tempo, and the clock. VMI’s AirRaid can only score when it’s on the field, so not turning it over and giving them extra possessions is crucial. If JMU can produce a couple of long drives, they will have a chance to let the big O-Line lean on VMI later in the day. With the inconsistency (we hope it’s getting better) the Dukes have had in the passing game this year, this is not the team to fall behind by multiple scores against.
And finally, it all sounds so simple on paper, but if both teams play well, the Dukes probably win this by 10. So just do your job ruthlessly and see where things end up.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Woodstock Brewhouse Tower Stout – We normally break out the cold/dark/perfect stouts and such for the brutal Valley-in-December playoff games. We’re hopeful this game – with potential cold-ish rain – will be the only game worthy of such a selection the next three weeks. This one is nitro-brewed so it’s smooth and of course is named for one of the Commonwealth’s best gravel climbs up Woodstock Tower Rd. to the Woodstock fire tower – the cyclists know this one for sure!
Official JMUSB Prediction
This could be a fun one. We’re guessing this one is competitive as hell and we all need reminding that we should treat VMI more as a 6-1 SoCon Champ (think how we’d view this game if it was 6-1 Furman or Wofford) instead of “just VMI.” But the Dukes are finally figuring out the competition aspect of this wild Spring Season and they’re looking like the talent-laden squad we’ve all come to expect.
JMU 31, VMI 17
