JMU at Texas State Preview

The Basics

Matchup: JMU (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) at Texas State (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt)

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET ON A TUESDAY, UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas

Weather: 76 and Sunny. Finally some redemption for those of us that have made some very cold trips to Texas for JMU Football over the years!

Broadcast: ESPN2

Day Job Numbers: JMU -7, ML -275; O/U 55.5

This opened JMU -6.5 at most books, including my home base at BetMGM. The fact that it quickly popped up to a key number suggests there is buy-in on the Dukes from more than just the guy at the end of the bar. 

Quirky Appetizer vs. Godless Abomination

Let’s get the obvious thing out of the way. College football on a Tuesday night is extraordinarily weird. 

There’s a certain give-and-take flow to these weeks in the fall, where fans can work through the week and get rewarded with college football on Saturday. A Tuesday game messes up that relationship. 

Even weirder is a Tuesday game that naturally becomes the teams’ only contest in a 20-day period. That’s just downright bizarre. 

We’ve all collectively grown used to weird MAC and Conference USA teams playing in these early-week monstrosities. I suppose that’s because bad football is better than no football.

This game between Texas State and JMU is so unusual because it’s not bad football. One stat of many: both teams rank among the top 50 FBS teams in yards per play. 

The Dukes are even receiving votes in the Week 10 AP Poll now. No team mentioned anywhere in an AP Poll (RV or otherwise) has played on a regular-season Tuesday night in more than two years. Amusingly, the last such game was in October 2023, when Liberty was near the top of the RV section and played a great-for-a-Tuesday roadie at Western Kentucky. (That same week, JMU had cracked the AP Poll at No. 25.)

I guess what I’m trying to say is that your mileage might vary on these Tuesday games. I think I’ve decided I prefer to watch directional schools from Michigan play in any time period that takes place between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football. 

On the bright side, watching your team play on a Tuesday is probably the closest an adult can ever come to recreating that childlike feeling of your parents letting you stay up until midnight for New Year’s Eve. There’s a real sense of getting something that’s strange, forbidden, unique – and it might not come around again for a while. So there is that.

Just make sure you have a good excuse for why you’re hungover at work on Wednesday morning. 

Four Things To Know About Texas State

Ironic Repeat Offender – Texas State is the first Sun Belt West team that JMU has drawn more than once in its cross-divisional matchups. The Bobcats came to Harrisonburg in JMU’s first FBS season, in 2022. (Those who frequent home games will remember this as a particularly unpleasant game impacted by the outskirts of Hurricane Ian.)

Of course, this is likely a one-and-done trip to San Marcos for JMU, since the Bobcats will be departing the Sun Belt for the new Pac-12. So the fact that JMU squeezed two games in against Texas State in its first four years is pretty amusing, to say the least. 

Win or lose, make sure you wave goodbye on the way out of town. 

Snakebitten – The records at the top of the post confirm that this game is first-place JMU playing against last-place Texas State. The Bobcats are 0-3 in the Sun Belt Standings and haven’t beaten an FBS team since the first week of September.

When I frame it up like that, it sounds like JMU should roll. But this Texas State game presents one of the most dangerous challenges of the season – And no, I’m not being sarcastic or practicing my coachspeak.

Let’s put aside any JMU-specific challenges for a moment. Texas State has been utterly unlucky for about a month, losing three straight Sun Belt games in excruciating fashion.

During Texas State’s Oct. 4 conference opener, Arkansas State scored a touchdown with seven seconds left in regulation and won, 31-30. A week later, first-place Troy beat the Bobcats in overtime. In Week 8, the Bobcats went to Marshall and lost, 40-37, in double overtime.

This is an offensively gifted team, coached by an offensively brilliant coach, that has been on the unlucky side of every conference game it’s played so far. The best team in the conference is coming to town, which gives this Texas State team a glorious opportunity for absolution. 

I can all but guarantee you that JMU will get Texas State’s best punch this week.

Action Jackson – Brad Jackson is the new quarterback operating head coach GJ Kinne’s Run & Gun offense this year, and it’s been a productive season for the freshman from San Antonio. He set a career-high with 444 passing yards against Marshall in Week 8; on the ground, he has accounted for eight touchdowns in his last six games. 

Jackson is one of only two Sun Belt quarterbacks with a Total QBR that ranks among the top 25 scores in FBS. And bonus points for you if you can guess the other one!

(No, not him. It’s Cameran Brown at Georgia State.)

(Yes, I’m sure. I checked it twice.)

(I know what you’re probably wondering, so I’ll just tell you: Alonza Barnett’s QBR of 65.9 currently ranks outside the top 50 in FBS, behind ODU’s Colton Joseph and Marshall’s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.)

(Look, don’t get mad at me. I’m just telling you what the stat is.)

I think the image people have when they think of Kinne and Texas State’s offense is a 2010s-esque Big 12 Air Raid. But this is closer to a true spread with more balance in the run game – Jackson only attempts about 26 passes per game – and Kinne is maximizing that multidimensionality with Jackson’s dual-theat skill set. 

Let’s have one more offensive stat while we’re on the subject of the run game. Texas State ranks 70th in offensive success rate for run plays, but 34th when you aggregate all its run plays and look at EPA per rush. That means Texas State is popping a ton of big plays on the ground, which sets up their explosive pass potential and skews their per-down advanced analytics. 

On the Road Again – There’s nothing particularly difficult or special about San Marcos. It’s a road destination in the 2025 Sun Belt.

Some people are asking: Wouldn’t it be good if JMU football could leave the confines of the Friendly City and play a complete, 60-minute game of football without bad penalties, unforced errors, high-leverage mistakes, and missed opportunities?

Resharing a stat I tweeted a few weeks ago here: Since the start of the 2024 season, JMU has had one halftime lead in road games against G5 opponents. One. (It was against Charlotte.)

When you have to play from behind that much, you eventually get burnt.

And look, I know it’s not easy to win on the road in conference games. But if JMU wants to host a conference championship game, or flirt with other hypothetical games beyond that, this is the kind of difficult game JMU has to go win. 

JMU needs to execute, play up to its level of talent, and win the game. 

How JMU Can Win

Avoid the slow starts that have plagued JMU on the road, and avoid a negative game script against GJ Kinne’s potent offense.

The formula for avoiding these problems is not secret or complicated. JMU can and should run the ball. First down, second down, third down, fourth down. 

In this post, I’ve highlighted some of what makes Texas State such a dangerous opponent. And while all that is true, the Bobcats are yet another team on JMU’s schedule with a lousy run defense – 119th in EPA/rush allowed. They are truly bad at defending first down and can be gashed to set up 2nd & short. 

JMU should be able to run the ball all day and connect on play action to keep the defense honest. Make Texas State bring its safeties down into the box, then allow Alonza to show off his arm against 1-on-1 coverage. 

JMUSB Beer of the Week

Treehouse by Roughhouse Brewing. This is for the road warriors who made the midweek trip to San Marcos – stop by a local brewery in the hill country and enjoy this rustic IPA.

Personally, I’d opt for their Sordid Nature – an 8.8% ABV dark saison that would be the official pick if we were just a little closer to December. As it stands now, Treehouse is a great IPA choice for a late October conference tilt down in Texas. 

Official JMUSB Prediction

Texas State 25, JMU 20

Beating the tar out of ODU in the second half was truly wonderful. But as I’ve alluded to, JMU just hasn’t played well on the road during the Chesney era, and this is a 1,000-mile Tuesday road trip against a dangerous, desperate team. Unlike Georgia State and Liberty, Texas State has a real offense that knows how to pass the ball.

Obviously, I hope I’m wrong. But my gut says that JMU won’t complete a full sweep through the Sun Belt this year, and I’ve been highlighting this game to friends and family as the most dangerous of the remaining opponents. 

I’ll predict that JMU falls behind early, then plays a good second half that ultimately falls short of a full comeback.