JMU Dukes vs. Villanova Wildcats Preview

JMU welcomes its old friend Villanova to Bridgeforth Stadium on Saturday. It’s a Homecoming showdown for two teams fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive. A win would get the Dukes to 6-3 and provide some much needed momentum to carry into a brutal closing stretch. A loss for the Wildcats would pretty much shut the door on their postseason chances.

Just the Facts

Match-up: JMU Dukes (5-3, 2-2 CAA) vs. Villanova Wildcats (4-4, 3-2 CAA)

Kickoff: 2:30 at Bridgeforth Stadium

Weather: Mostly sunny with a high of 61

Broadcast: Televised on Comcast SportsNet Regional. Streamed via CAA.tv and Madizone

All About Nova

Villanova earned a place in sports history when a ragtag group of underdogs, a blow-fueled point guard, and a coach that looked like Paulie from Rocky, upset Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Basketball Championship. But Villanova deserves to be known for much more than just that one basketball team. Among the many other things Nova is known for is, well, um, nope that’s pretty much it.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Villanova’s passing attack is 10th in the CAA. You’d be a fool to assume that means they can’t throw the ball though. They can. QB John Robertson throws it quite well actually, completing a league best 71% of his attempts. The Wildcats rank so low in passing offense because they simply don’t throw much. For comparison’s sake, they have 67 fewer attempts than JMU. And they don’t air it out much because their rushing attack is so strong that they don’t need to. They rush for an average of 242 yards a game with an attack spearheaded by Robertson and a stable of capable tailbacks. Robertson has already eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground to go along with 15 TDs. If you’ve never seen them play, Nova essentially has Mickey Matthew’s dream offense.

Hill People

We unearthed a little nugget buried in a CAA Preview done by our friends over at VU Hoops prior to week seven. Apparently, Nova fans refer to JMU fans as “hill people.” Seriously? Hill people? Obviously, nothing could be further from the truth. And believe you me, as soon as my kin up in the holler find out about this there’s gonna be trouble. Big trouble. Like get up off the couch in the front yard and smack you with my banjo trouble.

Robertson vs. Robertson

JMU’s Stephon Robertson is one of the best players in the country. He’s one of the leading candidates for the Buck Buchanan award and an absolute beast. We know this. Villanova’s QB John Robertson is on the same level. He’s a dual threat QB who can (and has) put a team on his back. While the two players won’t necessarily be engaging in a series of one on one battles, they do represent one of the games key match-ups. Robertson (the good one) leads the JMU defense and will be responsible for making sure he and his teammates key in on and shut down Robertson (the bad one). If Stephon, Dean Marlowe, and the Dukes can contain Robertson, JMU will be sitting pretty. If John and the Wildcats rushing attack gets the upper hand though, it could spell trouble for the home team.

How JMU Can Win

Did you not read the previous paragraph? JMU needs to stop John Robertson and the Nova ground game. If they can do that, and they play their best version of the “bend but don’t break” pass defense, they’ll be in position to take this one. And if the pass rush can put 10-15 hits on Robertson, that wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

On the other side of the ball, this is a game that just screams for a true Mike O’Cain offensive gameplan. By that I mean a balanced attack. A balanced attack that takes advantage of Nova’s struggles against the pass. Keep the chains moving and convert third downs (conveniently, Nova lets team convert on over 50% of 3rd downs). Nova is dead last in pass defense in the CAA. The Dukes need to take advantage of that and get Daniel Brown the ball. We repeat, get Daniel Brown the ball. Balance is key though. The Dukes still need to rush the ball, eat some clock, and keep John Robertson on the sidelines.

How Nova Can Win

Obviously, Nova is going to go with its strengths and try to establish its running game. Head Coach Andy Talley is no dummy though and he knows that JMU’s rush D is top notch. He’s not the type of coach who will steadfastly refuse to mix it up for reasons unbeknownst to the fanbase. He’ll pick his spots to throw the ball to keep the Dukes on their heels and open up space. If they do that enough and get the running game going, they’ll be good. If they fall behind early and can’t run the ball though, it’s going to be a happy Homecoming for JMU.

With Nova’s struggles against the pass, this has the potential to be a hell of a bounce-back game for Birdsong. Nova’s pass rush is relatively anemic. They simply have to put pressure on the Ginga Giant if they want to win this week. He’s a talented kid, with a good arm, but he’s struggled at times with decision making under pressure. Keeping him on the run and rattling him a bit, might make Nova’s weak pass D look a whole lot better. It will certainly improve their chances of winning.

JMUSB Beer of the Week

It’s fun to try new and exotic beers that test your palate. It’s also fun to have well crafted, straightforward, drinkable beers. Let’s go with the latter this week. Brooklyn Lager is this week’s BOTW. It’s a beer that both beer geeks and non-beer geeks can probably agree on. It’s well balanced, with just the right amount of bitterness. Plus, it comes in cans and is relatively sessionable at 5.2% ABV, so it’s a great choice for an extended Homecoming tailgate.

Prediction

The most tried and true strategy for coaches is to play the “nobody believes in us” card. Well, virtually nobody believes in the Dukes this weekend. So I’m ignoring everything else and putting my faith in the sports cliche and cheap motivation ploys. JMU gets back on track with a 31-21 win. Keep rootin.