JMUSB Bye Week Playoff Outlook

So as our fantastic guest post reminded us yesterday, this is no time to quit rootin’. Even if we didn’t feel that much like talking playoffs, the outlook was actually a little rosier than we suspected. After looking at lots of predictions and stats, we decided to ask the Dukes’ Domain’s own “Saxkow” to break it down for us. Having geeked out on the various playoff prognosticators that cover FCS for a few years now, we’ve always come back to own guy’s expertise – it’s the best. Thanks Saxkow and take it away!

From an Overall Perspective…

Since I was away last week, there has been a lot of movement within the I-AA landscape. We’ll get to JMU in a moment, but looking at the whole field, it is becoming harder to believe that the Committee will be able to fill out the playoffs with only 7-win teams. With three weeks to go in the season, there are now only 48 teams that can even reach 7 wins. Considering a number of those teams will get in by the AQ, it looks more likely the Committee will have to take some 6-win teams. (To compare to last year, with 3 weeks to go there were 53 teams that could reach 7 wins.) But almost half of those teams are now one loss away from dropping below that 7-win threshold. In the final weeks, I will likely start including some 6-win teams when I start predicting the playoff field.

From a JMU Perspective…

Well…so much for a #1 Seed.

The last 2 weeks saw us lose to both Richmond and W&M and also lose our starting QB for the season. The Defense has looked awful. It would take a miracle for us to get the AQ, so I think we can forget about that.

Now for the good news. We are almost a lock for an At Large. As I mentioned above, not many teams will reach 7 wins this year. We already have that – and with a I-A win. We now have a Bye week to regroup and then we face two teams that are struggling. We still have a very good chance to finish at 9-2. That could still get us a Seed. (Yes that could mean 3 CAA teams getting a Seed, but it will be hard to name 8 teams better than us at 9-2.) Plus, our new QB looks like he will fit into our system fine. (No one can say the offense was weak this week.)

It will all come down to Defense. They must improve or we could be done before December. (I have no doubt they could step it up for one game in the playoffs, but they will need to do that for multiple games if they want to get the championship.

By the Numbers (107 total teams)…

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/18 – 98
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 66

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/18 – 71
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 48

Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/18 – 1
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 8

Here’s the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can’t reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (9 Teams Alive)
JMU – 7 wins
Richmond – 7 wins
W&M (2)
Towson (1)
Villanova (0)
UNH (0)
Maine
Delaware
Elon

Big Sky (8 Teams Alive)
EWU (2)
Portland State (2)
Southern Utah (1)
Northern Arizona (0)
Montana (0)
North Dakota (0)
Montana State
Weber State

Big South (4 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina – 7 wins
Charleston Southern (2)
Liberty (0)
Kennesaw State

MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T (2)
Bethune-Cookman (1)
SC State (1)
NC Central (0)

MVC (9 Teams Alive)
Illinois State – 7 wins
SDSU (2)
NDSU (2)
W. Illinois (0)
Indiana State (0)
South Dakota (0)
Youngstown State (0)
No. Iowa (0)
So. Illinois

NEC (7 Teams Alive)
StFU (0)
Sacred Heart
Bryant
Duquesne
Robert Morris
Cent. Conn. State
Wagner

OVC (5 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 7 wins
EKU (1)
E. Illinois (1)
Tenn.-Martin (0)
SE Missouri State

Patriot League (6 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 7 wins
Lehigh (0)
Bucknell (0)
Colgate (0)
Holy Cross (0)
Georgetown

Pioneer League (7 Teams Alive)
Dayton – 8 wins
San Diego (1)
Morehead State (0)
Marist (0)
Butler
Campbell
Drake

SoCon (4 Teams Alive)
Chatty (2)
Citadel (2)
W. Carolina (0) – Cannot win AQ
Furman (0) – Cannot win AQ

Southland (3 Teams Alive)
McNeese State – 7 wins
Sam Houston State (1)
Central Ark. (1)

Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
UNH
Villanova
Montana
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Liberty
NC Central
W. Illinois
Indiana State
South Dakota
Youngstown State
No. Iowa
StFU
Tenn.-Martin
Lehigh
Bucknell
Colgate
Holy Cross
Morehead State

Marist
W. Carolina
Furman

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Gardner-Webb (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Jacksonville (caught cheating by the Pioneer)
Stony Brook
Albany
URI
Northern Colorado
Cal Poly
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sac State
Monmouth
Presbyterian
ETSU
Delaware State
Howard
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Tenn. State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Austin Peay
Lafayette

Valparaiso
Davidson
Stetson
Mercer
Sanford
Wofford
VMI
Houston Baptist
NW State
Nichols State
SE Louisiana
Lamar
Stephen F. Austin

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Harvard
Dayton
McNeese State

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Cornell
Delaware State
Wagner
Austin Peay
Mississippi Valley State

Conference Analysis

CAA – Richmond and W&M have obviously moved ahead of the Dukes to be at the top of the conference. There is a good chance the conference title will come down to the final week – where both teams will face each other in Richmond. Things could change, though, in the next 2 weeks that could change that. There is a good chance that W&M will win their next 2 games. However, I am not as sure about Richmond. Richmond seems to be a team that plays to its competition – they don’t seem to get as pumped up against lower teams. Teams like Hampton, Elon, and Albany have been able to keep the games relatively close against the Ticks. How will they fare on the road against UNH and Villanova – 2 teams that can be historically dangerous and are fighting for their playoff lives? Even if Rihmond loses one of those games, things will still most likely come down to that final week. But if they were to lose both…? Overall, it looks like there will be three teams from the CAA in the playoffs – Richmond, W&M, and JMU. Towson could finish 8-3 by beating W&M on 11/14 which would probably get them in. But if they don’t win that game, they would finish at 7-4 with no good wins. The same goes for Villanova and UNH – they must win out in order to keep any chances of making the playoffs.

Big Sky – This is a tough conference to call. There are 2 teams tied for 1st place with 5-0 conference records – EWU and Southern Utah. They do not face each other this year. But also, neither of them have wins against teams with winning records. Now their schedules get tougher. Over the next three weeks, they both face NAU and Portland State – the 3rd and 4th place teams – and they each will also face a Montana team. Anything could happen here – both teams could go 3-0, 0-3, or anywhere in between. Portland State should get into the playoffs if they can win 2 of their final 3 games. As we already know, 2 of those games are against EWU and SUU. The other one is next week against Northern Colorado – a game which they should win. NAU needs to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. They have a (non-)win against a lower division team and a very bad loss to UC Davis – but those could be offset with wins over EWU and SUU.

Big South – Surprisingly, the 1st place team here is not Liberty or Coastal Carolina. With their win over Coastal this past weekend, Charleston Southern has taken control of the conference. Next week, they face Kennesaw State – a team playing its inaugural season. If Chuck South wins, they will clinch the AQ. If they lose, they can still get the AQ the next week with a win over Liberty and a Kennesaw loss. Two weeks ago, I had voiced concerns that Coastal might not make it through their conference unscathed. Well, this week Coastal finally faced some good competition – and lost. Now, I do think they will still make the playoffs, but this loss possibly cost them a chance at a Seed. Most of their wins have been against weak teams – and they haven’t been by strong margins. (The two weeks before they lost, they played the two last place teams in the Big South and beat them by a total of 10 points.) It will be tough for anyone else in the Big South to make the playoffs – they will have to win out.

MEAC – The MEAC gave up their AQ to participate in a bowl versus the SWAC on ESPN, so the 1st place team will not make the playoffs. Could a 2nd place team be offered an At Large? I don’t know…but it likely won’t happen this year. A team would to have a really good resume to make that happen and none of this year’s squads cut it.

MVC – Two weeks ago, Illinois State and Western Illinois were tied for 1st and getting ready to face each other. Well, Western Illinois ended up losing that game by 20 and then followed that up with a loss to Youngstown State. They look to now be in deep trouble. Their final three games are all against strong teams (NDSU, SDSU, and Indiana State). One more loss will likely knock them out of the playoffs. Illinois State, however, is in a strong position to win the AQ. If they beat SDSU next week, they will likely take it. They are also now one of the leaders for a top Seed. (If they win out, they will easily get #1 or #2.) NDSU is waiting for Illinois State to stumble – but they will not face each other this year. The Bison should be able to win at least 2 of their final 3 games – which will get them into the playoffs – but they will likely need to win all 3 if they want a Seed. Six of the nine teams still alive are now one loss away from falling out of the playoff race.

NEC – You want parity? Look to the NEC. No team is undefeated in conference play. Everyone is within one game of 1st place. There is no way to tell what is going to happen here. It would be possible for one team (StFU) to reach 7 wins and not take the AQ…but 7 wins would likely not be enough to get an At Large from this conference.

OVC – There are still really four teams in play here, but we are getting closer (possibly) to getting the AQ settled. Jacksonville State has now beaten two of the contenders and won. Next week, they will play the final team – Eastern Illinois. If Jacksonville State wins, it will be tough for them to lose the AQ. Eastern Illinois, EKU, and Tennessee-Martin will be facing each other over the next three weeks. None of them can afford 2 losses (and Tennessee-Martin cannot really afford one more loss).

Patriot – With Colgate’s win over Fordham this past weekend, they are now in the driver’s seat for the AQ. If they win their next 2 games, they will clinch. What this means, is that Fordham is likely to take one of the At Larges. They already have 7 wins – including a win over Army – and will probably get at least one more (they have already played 9 games). If they win out, they could be looking at one of the Seeds. However, that might no be the best thing for them. Since their Bye is the last week of the season, a Seed would mean a long break in between games. Many teams would have trouble with that much time off.

Pioneer – Dayton is now the first team in the country to reach 8 wins. Impressively, three of those wins were against teams that offer some scholarships. Next week, they will have their first chance to clinch the Pioneer AQ – they will get it with a win and a San Diego loss. Most teams in the country will be hoping for that outcome – a 10-1 Dayton team could actually get an At Large. No other Pioneer teams have a shot at that, so if Dayton can get the AQ, the rest of the Pioneer will be out of the discussion.

SoCon – We’re down to four teams left alive – with only two left for the AQ. Simply put, The Citadel and Chatty play for the AQ on 11/14. Whether either team will be eligible for an At Large will likely be determined next week – when these teams take on the two bottom teams of the conference. Both Citadel and Chatty have 6 wins right now. They must win one game in the next two weeks because for both of them, they play I-A teams in the final week. The other two teams alive – Western Carolina and Furman – are one loss away from elimination. They play each other next week, so one of them will then be gone. Furman only has two more games left and they have a I-A win, so if they can win out they will be on the bubble (likely in). WCU, however, has three games left – one of them against Texas A&M. They would have to pull out that huge upset to reach 7 wins. They are probably gone.

Southland – There are now only three teams left alive in the Southland. McNeese State is in first and can clinch the AQ next week if they can beat 2nd place Sam Houston next week. Sam Houston and Central Arkansas are also trying to fight their way in and they will play each other in the final week. That game could be make-or-break for both of those teams.