JMUSB Game Preview #3: JMU Takes on UNC Chapel Hill

Unfortunately, we’re not up on the ins and outs of UNC or its football team. We reached out to some folks associated with a UNC blog for a Q&A, but they never got back to us. Maybe they don’t take the Dukes seriously. Or maybe it wasn’t a real blog at all, but just some sort of phony website where folks get credit for blogging without actually doing anything. Nah, surely nothing like that would happen at UNC.

Anyway, we planned to provide an in depth look at the Tar Heels through the eyes of some knowledgeable fans. We struck out though. After a bit of research however, we believe we can sum up UNC in a nutshell. Picture the general pretentiousness of UVA, the relatively underwhelming return on football investment of Virginia Tech, and WVU like throngs of die hard fans unaffiliated with the university who have cars on blocks in their front yards. Now combine that all together and you’ve got UNC.

A Number of UNC Weapons

All kidding aside, UNC is not just a P5 team, but a very good one. While it’s only his first year as the starting QB, Mitch Trubisky has plenty of talent. In the opener against a tough Georgia team, he completed 60% of his passes, albeit for a pedestrian average of 3.9 yards/pass. He bounced back in a big way in UNC’s 48-23 win over Illinois. In that game, he threw for 2 TDs and scored 2 more on the ground. He doesn’t run like former Tar Heel Marquise Williams, but he can get the job done on the ground too. Perhaps most importantly, Trubinsky takes care of the ball. He’s tossed 129 straight attempts without an interception. He’s a high ceiling player and on a completely different level than either of the starting QBs the Dukes have faced thus far.

Any Dukes fan who still has nightmares about former Villanova stud (and current Chicago Cub) Matt Szczur, might want to look away when TJ Logan is on the field. Logan is not a dual threat. He’s a triple threat. He can run the ball, averaging 8.9 yards per carry through two games. He can catch the ball, like when he turned a screen pass into a 24 yard TD against Illinois. And boy can he return kicks, racking up 73 kickoff return yards last Saturday. He’s exactly the type of guy that could put the brakes on an FCS over FBS upset with one momentum changing big play.

Elijah Hood is the Heels’ workhorse back. He has 160 yards and 2 TDs on the ground through two games. Last year he had a gaudy 6.7 yards/carry average, finishing the season with 1463 and 17 TDs. He’s the focal point of a dangerous UNC rushing attack. If JMU can’t contain him, it could be a very long day.

And we can’t forget about UNC’s receivers, because they’re pretty damn good as well. Bug Howard is a big 6’5″ target and Ryan Switzer already has 12 catches. Neither player has found the endzone yet this year, and you can bet they’re eager for that to change this Saturday.

Defensively, sophomore Andre Smith has had a bit of a coming out party this year. He had 7 tackles in the loss to UGA and then followed that up with a career high 14 against Illinois. He and his teammates on that side of the ball lost 2 of last year’s top tacklers, but still figure to be a tough test for JMU. Under Defensive Coordinator Gene Chizik, the Heels gave up only 14.5 points per game. That’s positively anti-Withers stuff right there. This years Heels however, haven’t yet shown that they can be that dominant.

By sticking to what they do best and running the ball all day.

Last year JMU went down to Texas and snagged an FBS win over SMU, by marching up and down the field to win in a shootout. That sort of “keep scoring and hope you get the ball last” will not work in Chapel Hill. The Heels are leaps and bounds better than last year’s SMU squad. One could argue that JMU beating SMU wasn’t an upset. Beating UNC would be.

Georgia’s Nick Chubb ran all over UNC, to the tune of 222 yards and 2 TDs, and busted off one 55 yard run. He’s a special talent and UNC won’t be the only team that fails to slow him down this year. However, Ke’Shawn Vaughn of Illinois also managed to run for 116 yards, including a 65 harder. The Dukes like to run the ball and have done so effectively. There’s no need to get cute. If JMU establishes the run and keeps moving the chains, chances are good that someone like Khalid Abudallah or Cardon Johnson will eventually break one off against the UNC defense.

If the Dukes can run the ball effectively, pop a few big passes to the WRs, take care off the ball, and prevent any big plays, they’ll be in position to win.

By punishing the Dukes at the line of scrimmage.

The Heels should win this. They’re bigger, stronger, faster, and deeper (other than that though…). They’re deserved favorites. If they can control both lines of scrimmage and avoid turning the ball over, the game probably won’t be close.

The game plan for UNC will be pretty simple. Expect them to start the Dukes off with a heavy dose of Elijah Wood and to keep pounding it on the ground until the Dukes prove they can stop him. They’ll try to get out to an early lead and then use their size and depth to cruise on home.

We often like to make our BOTW selection something with ties to the opponent’s region. And with Wicked Weed finally entering my home market in the coming weeks, it was awfully tempting to continue that trend. But I’m bucking the trend and looking to California for a good session IPA. Alpine Hoppy Birthday is our JMUSB BOTW. It’s more of a classic West Coast style than the trendier New England style juice bombs that are all the rage (with good reason). Resiny and piney with a nice malt backbone. Pick up a few for Saturday. You’ll thank me.

UNC has every advantage there is on paper. Big receivers, fast receivers, bruising backs, and shifty versatile playmakers. Only someone gulping Purple Kook Aid would be crazy enough to pick JMU to win. Poor me another cup of the purple stuff please, because I think JMU is going to win.

UNC’s offense scares me, but I think JMU can run the ball on the Heel defense. Here is how it’s going to go down. The Abdullah – Johnson duo move the chains, Bryan Schor hits a few big passing plays, and the defense does just enough. 35-27 Dukes.

Keep Rootin.