After JMU’s 28-10 loss to UNH, the Dukes’ playoff dreams are hanging by a thread. I’m obliged to point out that the Dukes can still win their final 2 games and get a bid. Personally, I don’t find that to be a tremendously exciting proposition though, and I doubt many of you do either. Plus, I’m not sure they’d have the resume to get a bid even if they got to 7 wins. Regardless, it’s the situation they are in. And now some brief thoughts on yesterday’s loss.
Football Games are 60 Minutes
The JMU defense was lights out for much of the second half. They were dialed in and put the clamps on the Wildcats high powered attack. Unfortunately, that same defense came out of the gates slow and let UNH build up a lead they never surrendered. Yes, UNH benefited from some great field position, but the defense was still atrocious in most of the first half. It’s tough to make the playoffs when you let your opposition race out to 25 points before the game was 20 minutes old.
Unlike the defense, JMU’s offense showed a lot of life early in the game. Dae’Quan Scott had a huge run in the Dukes first drive and UNH didn’t appear to have any answer for him. JMU came away with 10 points after it’s first 2 possessions. Then, the magic seemed to disappear. Even with the benefit of amazing field position consistently in the second half, JMU couldn’t punch it in the endzone.
The Not Very Special Teams
To win football games, teams need to win at all 3 phases of the game, offense, defense, and special team. Or something like that. I’m not exactly sure what the cliche is, but the Dukes’ special teams were anything but. They were terrible. This entire short and high kick-off strategy needs to stop. It does not work. And if it’s not a strategy, then JMU needs a new kicker. And nobody returning kicks is going to be confused for Scott McGee or Cortez Thompson anytime soon.
There Are Two Sides to Every Story…At Least
Obviously, there are different ways we could look at this game. Or any game for that matter. UNH did march all over JMU’s defense early, but you could point to the great starting field position they had. Or you could talk about how well the D played for most of the second half. Or about how much they miss Nick Evans. You could blame this loss on the offense’s inability to punch it in after the break. With short field after short field, JMU couldn’t cross the goal line. But you could easily chalk that up to the depleted offensive line or Thorpe’s suspension. Or you point out that JMU scored early, but UNH was just spotted too big a lead. And some other folks will lay the loss on Mickey and the staff. Rolling Jace (a righty) to the left 3 plays in a row before the half was odd. And turning down a penalty that would have given the Dukes 3rd and 6 from inside the ten for 4th and 1, was dicey. But maybe Mickey knew something we don’t. The point is there are a million ways to look at this. Right now, none of that matters. The Dukes are not short on excuses (legitimate or otherwise). They are short are wins. That’s really all that matters.
What It Means
I don’t know. I wish I did, but I don’t. JMU came really close to beating Maine and ODU. Had those games turned out differently, the Dukes would be battling for the CAA crown these next 2 weeks. They didn’t beat them though. They lost. And while we can argue all day about how things would have turned out differently if they were at full strength, they weren’t. It is what it is. JMU is a pretty decent team in the middle of the CAA pack. We can bitch about how disappointing that is, or we can hope they get hot, sneak into the playoffs, and turn in a Cinderalla run for the ages.
How’s your faith?! Well for you cynics out there, I’ve only got one thing to say. In the immortal words of Bad Ass Billy Gunn, “Suck It!” (Is the first paragraph too early for me to point out the oft-overlooked fact that Ravishing Rick Rude had a brief career renaissance thanks to his “bodyguard” stint for Shawn Michaels during the first incarnation of DX? Didn’t think so.)
The Dukes head to Durham, New Hampshire with their backs against the wall and a potential playoff berth hanging in the balance against the Wildcats this Saturday at noon. You can only catch the game online through UNH’s website as a $9.95 pay per view so the old-school wrastlin’ tie-in just seemed like a natural fit.
The Good
After losing three offensive linemen and DaeQuan Scott to injury in last week’s irritating loss, the Dukes got some good news this week as OG Matt Kraut and Scott have both returned to practice. Also, rFr Matt Cunningham, who’s now projected as the starter at LT, was pushing for playing time even before the injuries according to coaches so it’s possible after a week of practice to gel a little more, the dropoff on the OLine may not be nearly as severe as well feared after that hideous second half against ODU. On D, DE and JMUSB favorite DJ Bryant has had a somewhat shameful Twitter performance this week, but does seem to be progressing in the training room and there seems to be a decent chance he’ll be back as well to rush the passser.
Weather in Durham is projected to be crisp, but sunny. Also, this will be JMU’s first trip to UNH since they installed FieldTurf in ’07. These two facts should shield JMU from the speed-crushing (and soul) conditions the Dukes have often encountered during November trips to New England.
UNH has scored a ton of points this season (see The Bad), but their defense is butt-trifling. Yes, butt-trifling. They haven’t stopped anyone all year and have especially struggled the last three weeks against grind-it-out type opponents WM, URI, and UMass, even costing their offense precious time of possession and keeping the overall scores down. They only lost one of those three (WM), but needless to say, JMU’s offensive style lends itself to just the type of style that cramps the Wildcats’ style.
The Bad
UNH can really score. Especially through the air on the arm of QB Kevin Decker. This has been true for years and we should expect nothing different this year. JMU’s defense has “struggled” against the pass. That said, last week’s performance was deceptive in that despite all of our frustrations, the Dukes did seem to make strides in this department and our guess is ODU had slightly better athletes than UNH. We’ll see this week.
The Ugly
This game really may be the difference in making the playoffs or not. Mickey said this week he thought 2 out of 3 to get to 7-4, 5-3 CAA would get it done in his opinion, and it’s very tough to disagree. But losing this one would make it very difficult for the Dukes to finish higher than 5th in the CAA (Maine, Towson, ODU, UNH) and that would be a dicey proposition. As we said last Sunday, let’s all just let this thing play out before yellin’ and screamin’ but this one is HUGE.
Another ugly thing is UNH’s kicking game! Kicker’s missed a few clutch kicks and just from looking at the drive charts, it looks like the ‘Cats coaches don’t have much faith outside of 30 yards on FG’s. This may be the first time all year the Dukes enter a game on at least an even playing field in this department and this could be huge.
Gotta love Virginia!
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Desparate times call for desparate measures. This week calls for somethin’ a lil’ more serious. We’re going with Wasmund’s Single Malt Whisky from Virginia’s own Copper Fox Distillery in Sperryville, VA. You can get a sweet tour of this hidden gem most Saturday’s and this is exactly the kind of winter warmer you need to hunker down with in your shed so you don’t have to explain to the spouse, kids, and pets why you’re intently and maniacally yelling at your laptop. Tastes great with a cigar too.
Prediction
Predicting late-season CAA football is like starting a land war in Asia. You just shouldn’t do it. But I’m tired of losing of our own contest and despite ALL the naysayers, Dukes take this one 27-21 as the offense controls the ball and the clock and limits UNH’s opportunities on offense.
Alright folks, the Dukes head up to New Hampshire this weekend to face the UNH Wildcats in the beauty of a stadium you see pictured above. Add a comment and let us know how your pick. The person who comes closest to nailing it (winner & score) will win the right to guest post on whatever he/she wants next week. Good luck and Go Dukes!
- A Redskins Superbowl victory – fat chance any time soon
- A Nationals World Series win – the future is coming quickly
- A Capitals Stanley Cup – the future is now
- A 2nd JMU Dukes Football National Championship – the window is closing
Yes, yesterday’s game at ODU was a terrible, gutwrenching, cringeworthy, and potentially disastrous loss for the Dukes. Even worse, on the offensive line JMU lost tackle Josh Wells to a broken leg, right guard Matt Krout to a concussion, and tackle AJ Scott to what Mickey described as “tore up his knee there.” But if you’re looking for a gloom and doom or coaching change or sky is falling predictions based solely on yesterday’s game, you’re in the wrong place (and I’m writing instead of Rob).
Here’s the thing. So far this year it’s taken trick play on a two-point conversion in OT from the CAA’s best team (Maine) and yesterday’s combination of a completely fluke play on 4th down giving ODU a TD in the first half and a typical CAA phantom horseshit pass interference call late to beat the Dukes. So let’s all just settle down. We’re not quitting on this tough-minded, extremely talented team and you shouldn’t be either! Anyone criticizing “halftime adjustments” or “playcalling” in the second half just wasn’t paying attention. The Dukes lost THREE offensive lineman and the starting tailback (although this is a much less serious injury long-term given the depth at that spot) before the third quarter was over. What the hell is any coach going to be able to call with confidence after that?! In the first half, I’d certainly be inclined to pick the nit of the 3rd and goal wildcat call before the half were it not for the fact the Dukes scored two TD’s and two FG’s on four first half possessions, all on long drives. Tough to argue with that.
ODU’s freshman QB was great, and I’m guessing he’s never giving back that starting gig to the placeholder-turned-hero-against-weak-competition DeMarco at this point. He made that play on fourth possible and killed the Dukes with his scrambling all day. But for my money, there’s a lot of distance between the Monarchs and Maine. Alright, enough about ODU (at least until the Dukes get another shot at them).
The simple fact is this: Everything is still out there for the Dukes and there is a TON of football still to be played. More than a quarter of the season in fact despite that it feels later than that. The Dukes are 5-3, 3-2, and still in decent shape IF, and yes, it’s a sizable but not unthinkable IF, they can somehow patch the O-Line and find two wins in the last three games. The schedule gives them great opportunities too. Maine is now alone in first and looking good to stay in at least the top two. Towson fell to Delaware yesterday and travels to Maine next week. They could easily join the two loss group with ODU and JMU. ODU now has head-to-head with JMU but let it play out – UR and WM may look easy for ODU, but as we saw yesterday for the Dukes, attrition in this conference is key and those injuries that JMU couldn’t expose in ODU’s secondary may show up a lot larger against Aaron Corp and the Spiders. One thing we never seem to learn is how little we can all predict about the CAA late in the season.
UNH is the key. If the Dukes can get it back together this week, you’d have to love their chances at home against Rhode Island after that. Noon start. MadiZone or selected viewing parties only I think. So fire up the laptop or come to Bailey’s/Bandito’s, but don’t transfer all your energy to hoops just yet!
One last note: JMU men’s soccer is tops in the CAA and has earned the right to host the CAA tourney. It’s going to be at JMU the same weekend the football Dukes are hosting URI for Senior Day. Dukes will play in the semis Friday and potentially the Final on Sunday. Just saying if you so choose, you can really turn this into an epic tailgating weekend in the ‘Burg!
Cue the Empire music from Star Wars and dig into that special reservoir of condescension you usually bust out only when the Ticks or CrAppy St. are involved. It’s finally time for ODU! Dukes World has been discussing this one ad nauseum ever since Monarchs fans started yakking after “big” wins over VMI and Norfolk Collegiate three seasons ago when football arrived on the ODU “campus.” Somebody drop a Stone Cold Stunna on Vince McMahon cause this IS the Royal Rumble!
We’ve literally been dissecting this game from every angle here at JMUSB for a solid year and a half. At first we thought ODU was a cute story that might eventually provide solid competition for the Dukes, but as the Monarchs have shown this year, “eventually” is now and we’ve been alternately fretting and throwing out irrational bursts of bravado all season. Rob and I were talking yesterday and we agreed we haven’t been this fired up for a regular season game since Appy in ’08. I know, I know that sounds crazy, but after Appy the rest of the ’08 regular season, even the UR and Nova games, didn’t bring this kind of “I have no idea what’s going to happen but everything seems to depend on the outcome” type feeling. Basically after that comeback and with Rodney at the helm, I felt great about the Dukes every week that year. The last two years the wheels came off too early in the season to ever get psyched up for a big late-season game. And of course, this is different in a way the upcoming UNH and UMass games, even given their potential implications, will never be. As both coaches noted this week, this rivalry seems huge before game 1 is even played. The shared commitment to football that will differentiate ODU and JMU from UR and WM long-term and the agreed-upon disdain for hoops-only geeks from GMCC and VCU means we’re joined at the hip, for better or worse. In the shifting landscape of collegiate athletics, the Monarachs are the closest thing to a sure thing right now if you’re asking the question “Who will be the Dukes biggest rival on and off the field two decades from now?”
The Game
If you’re looking for solid X’s and O’s, check out Wednesday’s Q&A with ODU blogger and @VaBeachRep. Basically, ODU has two solid QB’s and a strong passing attack, something the Dukes have struggled with at times. A ton of experienced WR’s and allegedly rock-solid Special Teams allow them cash in with points and field position even when they fail to close drives with TD’s. JMU’s going to have to do less bending than usual this week. On defense, much to the chagrin of @defiantlydutch, ODU features Hofstra’s former interior defensive line.
Best defense for the Dukes this week is a great offensive performance. JMU will look to control the ball and the clock to keep ODU’s offense off the field. Weather’s going to be nasty, which should be advantage Dukes (assuming the backs can hang onto the ball).
What it Means
It means even more right now, this season, than it does as the start of a long-term rivalry. Dukes are a 1/2 game ahead of the Monarchs in the standings and with Maine and Towson still undefeated, JMU can really lock themselves into one of the 3rd or 4th playoff spots in the CAA with a win. A loss on the other hand would send them back into the conference melee, open the door for ODU, and set up an incredibly tall must-win in New Hampshire next week. This one is HUGE. Get this win, beat URI at home, split with UNH and UMass and the Dukes are hosting games in December!
Beer of the Week
This week’s pick is Bell’s Double Cream Stout. The weather has changed and it’s Halloween but pumpkin beer’s moment has mercifully passed. Bell’s DCS will warm you up and makes a great breakfast tailgate beer!
What Football has Meant to ODU
Players have doubled the number of students intent on staying more than two years. Hampton Roads Tarheels fans have another bandwagon to jump on. Hopefully more Blaine Taylor mustache sightings!
Prediction
We respect what ODU has done so far and where they’re headed. And sometimes Mickey scares the hell out of us. But he always has the Dukes ready for big games, and from the insanity on the player’s twitter feeds, it’s safe to say they know this one qualifies. A slow start may spook us, but eventually the Dukes take over. The weather may keep the scoring low and strange, but our guess is Dukes pull away in the second half and win 26-17. (Settle down and have some confidence MegAbs!)
Alright folks, it’s prediction time. The rules are the same. Add a comment including your prediction for the winner of Saturday’s game against ODU. Keep it simple and just give us a score, or include your analysis. Whomever comes closest to nailing it (winner & score) will get to guest post on whatever they want next week. We’ll have our full JMUSB preview up on Friday morning.
Before we get to our game preview, we wanted to get an ODU fan’s perspective on the match-up and rivalry. Fortunately Joe Suhoski, an ODU alum who covers the CAA for CAAZone, was kind enough to do this Q&A with us. You can read his work on CAAZone here and follow him on twitter at @VABeachRep. Thanks Joe!
Most CAA fans thought ODU would become a competitive program, but I don’t think anyone believed the Monarchs would be this good this soon. What were your expectations for this team headed into this season? What are they now?
For the 2011 season I expected the team to win its three OOC games but only win two (at most three) conference games. Being aware of how difficult the CAA is between its FCS championships coupled with wins over FBS teams (by JMU, Villanova, Richmond, UNH, W&M the two previous seasons), it’s difficult to have expected the team to compete immediately. It’s not a matter of the talent and coaching ODU has organized; it’s a matter of the CAA’s level of talent. My expectation now is to finish with eight wins. This will require wins over two of James Madison, Richmond or W&M. I’ve understimated how talented the team is to this point, but I’m beginning to believe because it’s clear that the players believe.
DeMarco has been great for us in that he has made the right decisions consistently with reading defenses, making the correct pre-snap decisions of where to throw the ball, and scrambling with the ball when it’s the offense’s best option. His toughness and leadership have never been in question and he’ll always be a favorite among fans. After suffering an ankle injury against UMass, Heinicke stepped in and brought a different dimension to the team. What DeMarco brings in toughness and intelligence at the position, Heinicke enhances those aspects with better touch on deep passes. When DeMarco scrambled, the receivers prepared for a scramble; when the pocket breaks down around Heinicke, though, receivers work more to get open.
As a Bills fan (#dontcrossthemoats), I liken DeMarco to Doug Flutie – he’s not the tallest QB but he makes great decisions, can make most throws and is quick to accelerate to top speed once he scrambles. Heinicke doesn’t reach his top speed as quickly but he looks upfield more than DeMarco when he scrambles.
Assuming DeMarco remains out due to injury, the obvious answer is Heinicke. He hasn’t accumulated ten touchdowns against only one interception as a true freshman by accident. Look out for junior receiver Reid Evans – he was held without a reception in the game against Villanova for the first time in two dozen games; he’s too talented to go two games without a reception. With injuries to three of ODU’s top four running backs coming into the game, expect any of ODU’s receivers to have a big game as the play-calling focuses on passing. On defense look for out for Ronnie Cameron. The transfer DT from Hofstra (RIP) has been the clear leader on ODU’s defense, and linebacker Craig Wilkins has also made his presence known in the conference. read more…
When ODU announced that it was starting a football program, we were pretty excited. We thought that if they caught a few breaks, they’d have the potential to develop into a nice little rival for JMU. The Monarchs are just in their first year of CAA play and they’ve exceeded everyone’s expectations. Yes, they have a young program, but they’re recruiting well, playing well, have a large and enthusiastic fanbase, and their administration is committed to building a top notch program. This rivalry doesn’t need to develop, it’s already there. In fact in my mind ODU has already made the leap to be JMU’s biggest football rivarly. So big in fact that we think the game deserves a nickname. Therefore JMUSB is declaring the Dukes vs Monarchs the “Royal Rumble”. So what if Dukes actually refers to Samuel Duke and has nothing to do with royalty. Just go with it.
It might seem ridiculous to make so much of a game against a team that is brand new to the CAA. It’s huge though. ODU is situated right in the middle of the “757”, a region of the Commonwealth that is deeply passionate about football. In addition to be a recruiting hotbed and a place much of JMU’s roster calls home, it’s a place where thousands of Dukes alums live, work, and play with their Monarch friends, neighbors, and coworkers. ODU isn’t like William & Mary or Richmond where the programs’ successes haven’t translated to fan passion. ODU fans are loud, proud, and excited for this game. They are sick of hearing about the momentum JMU is building. They are also sick of JMU fans thanks to my 4 year old niece who attended the ODU vs Towson game, cheered like crazy for the Tigers, and let it be known to all within earshot that JMU was coming. (Ed. note: Uncle Rob is proud of you Jane.) In addition to the winner being one step closer to the playoffs, its fans will have serious bragging rights. And for once we appear to have found another school with fans who actually get that. That’s why this is going to be such an epic rivalry.
So yes, we’re a bit excited about things this week. We had hoped to have a few years for the Dukes to stomp ODU without breaking a sweat as they got up to speed in the CAA. ODU has shown that they deserve to be taken seriously though. And that’s awesome. Last week there were some great ideas about what JMU should do to start some traditions. The fact is that a passionate rivalry is the best tradition of all. And we’re pretty sure JMU has one in ODU. So we’re officially declaring this rivalry week and JMUSB is all about this rivalry. The countdown begins now. Saturday is the Royal Rumble.
So as we all catch our breaths before loading up for the big game agains ODU next week and the stretch run after that, we wanted to get around to some to other stories around the JMU sports universe in our standard OGL roundup. Also, if you haven’t already, check out the guest post from Wednesday from reader Sean Patrizzi. He really has some great ideas about new traditions at JMU and the more Dukes who begin having this conversation, the more likely to build the grassroots support needed to get some of these moving.
In case you hadn’t noticed the Buffalo Bills big start (and judging by the attendance, you haven’t), former Duke Arthur Moats is killing it (and killing Mike Vick a couple weeks ago). The Don’t Cross the Moats campaign is also making him a cult hero in upstate New York. BuffaloRumblings
Hope Solo's future man?
Former JMU Soccer star CJ Sapong is the leading Candidate for MLS Rookie of the Year! Seriously, this is kind of a big deal. He’s also made a name for himself through his very public and hysterical crush on Hope Solo, but unlike the rest of us who share this crush, he is a goal-scoring stud for playoff-bound Sporting Kansas City and was Rookie of the Week last week thereby actually gaining her recognition and playing along. Soccer By Ives
Speaking of Soccer, the current JMU men have been lighting it up. They are currently ranked #21 in the nation and along with UVA and ODU seem likely to form a Virginia power bloc in the 48 team big dance coming soon. JMU Sports
The CAA announced JMU’s new Veterans Memorial stadium (baseball at old Harrisonburg High site) will host the 2012 and 2013 CAA tournament. Great news for the Diamond Dukes! (assuming JMU is still in the CAA in 2013) JMU Sports
Oh yeah, and hoops has started! JMU went silent with no real Midnight Madness style event this year after lots of Denzel Bowles/Dawn Evans hype the last couple of seasons (by the way, it’s impossible to think of two more opposite “leaders” then those two) but both teams are slightly under the radar with enormous potential this year. The men’s team welcomes Wyoming transfer AJ Davis, who Coach Brady told us was the best player on the team by a mile when he had to sit out last season and was picked by the CAA Coach’s to finish 5th. The women’s team will be led by returning all-around star Tarik Hislop and was picked 3rd. Our first guess is the men outperform that expectation while the women will really have to fight to meet that without Evans. I’d embed some ESPN3 video here if it weren’t that the CAA interview with Brady is so fantastic from CAA Media Day this past Tuesady. Seriously, you have to click and watch Smokin’ Al Koken yakking it up with Brady and his piece.
Lastly, despite the Dukes being on bye this week, lots of important CAA action. In a real rarity, we all need to pull for both William & Mary and Richmond this weekend as they host the two teams (Towson and Maine) JMU can’t catch without help. Also, JMU’s two toughest opponents on paper (UNH and UMass) play each other in the televised rivalry game from the Patriots’ Gillette Stadium if you want to geek out and do some scouting with us.
