The Dukes close out the 2015 regular season on Saturday with a home game against their old friends the Villanova Wildcats. Prior to the season beginning, most fans thought this one would likely decide the CAA crown and maybe even clinch the Payton Award for one of the QBs. But life sometimes throws you curveballs. Star QBs Vad Lee and John Robertson both went down with injuries, but this game still has playoff implications. A win and some help could give the Dukes a seed, while a win and some breaks could help Nova snag a bid. It might not be the game of the year, but it’s still a big one.
The Skinny
Match-up: #12 JMU Dukes (8-2, 5-2 CAA) vs. Villanova Wildcats (6-4, 5-2 CAA)
Kickoff: 12:00 PM at Bridgeforth Stadium
Weather: High of 51 and mostly sunny
Broadcast: Streaming via Madizone
Tell Me About Villanova
Surely, you all know who the Villanova Wildcats are. If you’re of a certain age, you’ll immediately recognize them as the scrappy little basketball team that rode the play of a cocaine fueled point guard to one of the most stunning and improbably NCAA titles ever. Of course if you’re a little younger, you probably know Villanova as an immensely talented hoops program that consistently plays great basketball year and year out from November right up until the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. The school also has a football team. A very good one in fact, having won a national title of its own. The students seem to prefer supporting the hoops program, but that’s their loss. Nova is well coached and dangerous program year in and year out. Despite the fact that reigning Payton Award winning QB John Robertson went down with a season ending injury, this year is no different. Nova is a dangerous team.
Bizarro Dukes
With ten games in the books, we all know what JMU is. The Dukes are a team built to play fast and outscore their opponents. Nova is not. The Wildcats are pretty much the opposite. They beat teams by playing shut down defense and grinding it out on the ground on offense. Nova is only giving up 16.4 points per game. Lately, that defense first formula has been very successful. After struggling to find their footing without Robertson, Nova has heated up and won 4 of its last 5. Last weekend, the Wildcats managed to knock off Richmond in a 21-20 thriller.
Late Breaking News That Sucks But Actually Might Be a Factor Nonetheless
Injuries suck. They just do. They’re part of the game of football though. As JMU fans, we were bummed when Vad Lee went down. But we were also pretty disappointed when Nova’s John Robertson got hurt. Players on both teams stepped up and helped carry the load after the loss of the star QBs though. One such player for Nova, was Matt Gudzak. The running back shined in a win over Rhode Island and has averaged 7 yards a carry. Unfortunately, he was hurt in last week’s game against Richmond and has been declared out for Saturday. The loss will put more on the shoulders of QB Zach Bednarczyk. He’s certainly up to the task, but like Bryan Schor, he would probably be more effective with a strong running game behind him.
How Nova Can Win
By doing what Delaware did last week, but doing it just a little bit better. JMU’s offense was downright mortal last week. Much of that might have been due to the fact that the Blue Hens pass rush was able to get to Bryan Schor. They had him on his heels and managed to disrupt the offense’s rhythm. Nova will also try to win by rattling Schor and forcing mistakes. The Cats D doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but it’s particularly good against the pass. So expect them to try to shut down Cardon Johnson and Khalid Abdullah, and force Schor to try to beat them with his arm.
How JMU Can Win
By going back to basics. Without Vad Lee, maybe we shouldn’t expect the Dukes’ offense to reach its record breaking levels (although it might). As we saw against William & Mary however, the Bryan Schor lead offense can still be pretty damn explosive. The key is getting into a rhythm, playing fast, and spreading the ball around. We’ve all seen how it’s supposed to work. JMU keeps its opponents guessing by utilizing its many weapons, ups the pace, and the D eventually cracks. It’s simple, but not easy. It’s how the Dukes offense was made to play though. The Dukes don’t need to revamp the offense or dumb it down to make it easier for Schor. They’ve got to put him in a position where he can mix things up and get the ball to his teammates who can make plays.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Duckpin Pale Ale. I tried this brew from Union Craft Brewing for the fist time a few weeks ago and it struck me as a perfect tailgate beer. It comes in cans (key for pre-football imbibing) and is an almost session beer like 5.5% ABV. As Todd mentioned last week, we’ve been a bit biased toward IPAs in our weekly selections (go try Stone’s Sorry Not Sorry IPA btw), but it’s not all we like. Sometimes a slightly less hoppy beer with a crisp finish hits the spot. Duckpin Pale Ale definitely does.
JMUSB Prediction
Senior Day. Regular season home finale. Beautiful fall weather. It’s all set up to be a perfect day. Provided JMU gets the win of course. We think the Dukes come through. Schor builds on last week’s confidence building final drive, the defense takes another baby step forward, and JMU gets to 9 wins. Dukes 35 – Cats 24.
Huge thanks to Brian Ewart from SB Nation’s VUHoops.com for running it back another year with us on this Q&A. Tons of good stuff in here explaining this week’s matchup from the other side. We also did the same for them and you can check that out here. We always enjoy interacting with Villanova because their media coverage is so strong based on their hoops program, but they really do have a few football fans too. Enjoy!
It’s time for our last prediction contest of the regular season. JMU and Villanova face off this Saturday in Bridgeforth Stadium. When it was announced, many people thought this game would feature the two front runners for the Payton Award trying to lead their team to a CAA title. With Vad Lee and John Robertson both injured, it will not. But it’s still a huge game with playoff implications. And we want to know who you think will win. Leave a comment below with your prediction. The person who comes closest to nailing it (winner & score) will get to write a guest post. That’s it. Go Dukes! Keep Rootin!
The Good
Earl getting some great run on Sunday Night Football too!
Men’s Hoops! Let’s just start here before we get to football. Such a sweet, sweet morsel of revenge against the tourney-hopeful Ticks to start the men’s hoops season Friday night. Now let’s hope we get a shot at the main course somewhere down the line in the postseason on the gridiron (although incredibly The Ticks have played themselves onto the wrong side of the bubble the last two weeks and might need a win over the Nerds to even make the field, not that we’d mind!). Check out the highlights here and let’s hope this team can keep building as they wait for Yohanny Dalembert to recover. The boys have arguably their most marquee game of the non-conference schedule Monday night in Charleston (“neutral” site) vs. WVU.The Women’s team also won their opener but it was a blowout of Longwood so nothing to get excited about just yet.
The Dukes locked up a playoff a berth. It may have been ugly and it may not have done a thing to calm our nerves about the season’s trajectory at the moment, but in beating Delaware and getting their eighth win, there’s no doubt now that JMU will hear their name on next Sunday’s Selection Show on ESPNU at 11 a.m. If JMU can beat Villanova this weekend to get to 9-2, there’s still an outside chance at a seed and avoiding the first round. Here’s the ticket info from JMU.
Purple Helmets are back, though “satin” instead of chrome this time. Thank goodness we can get out of the white-helmet rut.
Bryan Schor led his first comeback in dramatic fashion! And he sort of had to throw two great TD passes to do it after a drop on the play before the Ravenel score (by the way, how great is Ravenel playing?!). Schor and the offense struggled a lot on Saturday for really the first time all year, but you can’t deny they never quit and produced when it mattered most.
The Defense. No really, the defense earned their way into The Good for really the first time all year and their timing couldn’t have been better with the Offense finally flailing a bit. They weren’t perfect, although Kyre Hawkins and his 17 tackles were darn close, but after allowing their customary first-drive TD to open the game, they really settled in. They allowed only 14 points (UD’s third and nearly game winning TD was the long fumble return), none in the fourth quarter after JMU fell behind, and Raven Greene, who seems to be in on every big play when the D actually comes up with one, made a huge stop to give JMU the one last chance it needed. As Coach Withers noted after the game, let’s not all forget the Chickens beat William & Mary and UNH this year, so let’s take the win and move on.
Only two penalties. Nice to see that get cleaned up during the bye.
Gunnar Kane – it’s never a good sign when the punter makes The Good section, but he did do a great job considering how often he was called upon during a blustery day.
The Bad
Bye Week preparation – Well so much for the idea that the bye week would allow the staff to cook up something special and the kids to reenergize. This was right up there with the Albany game as the sleepiest and least crisp this team has looked all year. Let’s hope a normal schedule gets them in a better mindset last week.
The offense. We’re not going to over-analyze what went wrong because it’s the first time all year they’ve struggled so mightily, but it wasn’t the Death Star that was still blowing up planets even during the two losses. It will be interesting to see if Andy Talley, who earlier this year said essentially “ain’t played nobody PAWWWLLL” about JMU, can get his team to replicate UD’s performance.
The Ugly
ANOTHER blocked FG. Maglio does occasionally kick a low ball, but after the debacle at W&M a few weeks back, it’s tough to fault the kicker when the line looks like a sieve.
Delaware’s passing game. Thank goodness the Chickens QB can’t throw. Needed all the help we could get in this one.
Man that felt good! Thanks Brady and company!
So happy we’re going to be able to add some sweet sweet revenge on the Ticks in the men’s hoops’ opener tonight into Sunday’s Good, Bad, and Ugly but here’s the open thread for what we all hope will be the Dukes’ magic win #8 tomorrow. We’ll be a bit out of touch today (Todd’s hosting watch party and Rob’s traveling this weekend) but will catch up with you all late night!
Two sides of the enormous, three-sided, world-famous Delaware “Piss Wall.” Seriously, this is the men’s room at The Tub. Also, do you know how difficult and uncomfortable it is to try to snap a photo in this situation?! Talk about awkward visiting fan.
Well time to pack up the tailgate and head north to the place that gives the other Newark a good name. And don’t forget the extra money for tolls. Normally we’d advise puke-bibs for the Preakness trolls and general Baltimore/Philly hellhole corridor denizens, but everyone under 75 years old has abandoned all support and hope for the once proud Blue Chickens program, so just make sure not to get caught in the long lines for the early-bird special at Old Country Buffet.
The Basics
#9 James Madison Dukes (7-2, 4-2 CAA) at Delaware Blue Hens (3-6, CAA), 3:30 p.m. at Tubby Raymond Stadium in Newark, Delaware.
Coverage: Comcast SportsNet but SPECIAL NOTE: In at least Virginia and North Carolina, Comcast is not scheduled to pick this up until 4 p.m. following the 12:30 Virginia/Louisville game so don’t adjust your set or give up on the game if you tune in at 3:30 and the Dukes aren’t on. Patience grasshopper. Plus you should be able to watch the start on MadiZone (and/or CAA.TV) and then make the switch after the Hoos lose.
Weather: Getting brisk out there. 49 degrees, mostly sunny at kickoff. Wind 17 mph WNW and could be some factor.
Line: Dukes are favored by 19.
Why We Should Worry About the Chickens
Because Delaware somehow beat William & Mary and New Hampshire.
Why We Shouldn’t Worry About the Chickens
Because Delaware scored six (yes, 6) points total in three losses to Albany, Towson, and Rhode Island. Seriously, they were shut out at RhodeI and also lost to non-scholly Jacksonville (not Jacksonville St., just plain Jacksonville).
Honestly, we have no idea what to make of this team and there seems to be no logical pattern to this schedule:
9/4 L Jacksonville 20-14
9/12 W Lafayette 19-9
9/19 L @ VU 28-21
9/26 L @ UNC 41-14
10/3 W W&M 24-23
10/10 L @ URI 20-0
9/24 W UNH 31-14
10/31 L @ TU 19-0
11/7 L Albany 17-6
We do know they are woefully uncoached by what is shaping up to be one of the all-time CAA dud hires in Dave Brock, though it’s hard to blame just the HC when the AD seems way over his head and not in on the conversation with a school president and a state legislature dropping all pretense of even giving a shit about athletics in general. It seems like only yesterday we were hoping UD would get its act together so we could move to FBS together and now they stand as a constant reminder on multiple levels that for all of our frustration with the CAA and JMU’s inability to find (or accept) a way out, it can always be worse, and at least we should take heart that JMU not only hasn’t quit on athletics, but has actually doubled down in a lot of ways, especially the ways those only paying attention to football and men’s hoops don’t always see.
What We’re Looking for from the Dukes
Freshness and some new wrinkles. Coming off the bye week, we’re really looking for the Dukes to look re-energized after there incredibly draining weeks that ended with the W&M loss. And of course with the extra time to prep both scheme and Schor, we fully expect to see some creative new stuff on both sides of the ball. But mainly we want to see that they quickly shake off any rust or lethargy from the bye and that the Dukes have the ability to recapture the swagger they had earlier in a post-Vad, post-gameday world.
Tailgating Notes and Watch Parties
Delaware is tailgate-friendly and the weather looks good. Having made this trip before, I can vouch that the oldsters (yes, even older than us) being good sports so we strongly recommend this trip.
Also, I’ll be hosting the second-ever Triad Dukes Watch Party at Old Town Draught House in Greensboro, NC this weekend if anyone is in the area (you might be one of four of us so feel free!). Let us know in the comments if you know of other spots.
Beer of The Week
So we had been all-IPA early on, then got called out on it and switched for UR. We blamed the BOTW of course for that debacle and went back to an IPA for W&M. Clearly it’s not about the beer. So we’re going back to one we’ve discussed in past years, but it’s so far and away the best example of a style and it’s just that time of year. Founder’s Backwoods Bastard is darn near perfect. This is the Bourbon Barrel aged Ale from one of the country’s best breweries and it proves two things: 1) most people have no idea what they’re doing with bourbon or bourbon barrels mixed with beer and 2) when you do mix them, it’s cool to use an ale and not a stout. This year’s version is an enormous (but still beautiful) 11.6% so maybe save it for the second half.
Prediction
Dukes 41, Delaware 17 – For all our wailing and the defense’s struggles, the Dukes have scored 49 and 41 in back-to-back games against top 10 teams and the CAA’s best. And everything we’ve seen from Schor and the relatively healthy (otherwise of course) offense gives us no reason to doubt they’ll keep up the pace. While Delaware should, like everyone else, be able to top their recent putrid averages, with two weeks for the Dukes to prepare and the Hens likely mailing in the end of a season of discord, there’s also no reason to think this will be nearly as bad as the last two. Hopefully we’ll all be talking playoffs Saturday night as the Dukes would almost surely clinch a bid with a win.
Is it just me, or does it feel like decades since JMU last played a football game? In any case, the bye week is over and the Dukes are back in action this Saturday. They’ll face a Delaware Blue Hens team that is struggling lately after an early season strong performance against Villanova and an upset win over William & Mary. Lately though, things haven’t been working out for the Blue Chickens. Their offense is anemic. On a good day. On a bad day it’s non-existent. Which means it’s a perfect chance for the Dukes defense to get well.
As we always do, we’re running the prediction contest for this game. Leave a comment below letting us know who you think will win and what the final score will be. The person who comes closest to nailing it (winner & score) will get to guest post. That’s it. Go Dukes! Keep rootin!
Everett Withers and the Dukes didn’t play on Saturday, but the weekend was far from uneventful. In fact, it was a pretty big weekend for some of the ladies of JMU. The Field Hockey team capped a 6-0 regular season record in CAA play, by advancing to the conference finals. Unfortunately, Taylor West and her teammates fell victim to Delaware, who won its third straight CAA crown. It was a particularly brutal loss too, coming at the hands of a golden goal in OT. The girls from JMU have nothing to hang their heads over. They won 16 games and rose all the way to 16th in the polls. They also cleaned up in the CAA awards department. Hats off to them all for a great season. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t give a special shout out to redshirt senior Taylor West. This year’s CAA Player of the Year is one of the best to ever wear purple and gold. It’s a shame she and her teammates were unable to win a title.
In happier news, the women’s soccer team pulled off a couple of upsets over the weekend and won the CAA Championship. The Dukes were seeded 4th in the four team tournament, but defeated Hofstra 1-0 in double OT Friday night largely due to goalkeeper Ellen Forrest pulling a Tim Howard and turning away a program record 16 shots. They followed that up with a comeback for the ages to beat William & Mary 3-2 in the final. The Dukes fell behind 2-0 in the first half, before finding the net 3 times after the break. It was the first time in the 21 year history of the tournament that a team had come back from two goals down to win the championship. The win earned a NCAA tournament bid for the Dukes, who will find out their draw on Monday.
There was plenty of action on the gridiron for the rest of the CAA and FCS. Things really broke the JMU’s way too. A stunning 6 teams ranked the Top 10 (#2 Illinois State, #3 Chattanooga, #4 Eastern Washington, #5 Ticks, #7 Sam Houston State, and #10 Portland State) lost over the weekend. That obviously is good news for the Dukes, who hope to win out and climb back up into playoff seed territory. Here are the rest of the CAA results.
Albany 17 – Delaware 6: The Great Danes managed to go to Newark and pick up a road win against an offensively challenged Blue Chicken squad. It’s sort of crazy how the team that once had the CAA’s best homefield advantage, can now lose to Albany on Homecoming and it’s not even big news.
W&M 34 – Elon 13: Poor Elon. The Tribe made the trip down south and did what it had to do. With the Ticks loss (see below), the final weekend clash with Richmond is set up to be the defacto CAA Championship now.
Villanova 24 – URI 3: Perhaps folks shouldn’t be sleeping on Nova so much. Sure, John Robertson is out. But the defense is playing very well and the Cats are a sneaky 4-2 in league play. They’ve got 5 wins with 2 games remaining, and could definitely sneak into the 24 team playoff field if they win out.
Stony Brook 14 – Howard 9: Meh. Stony Brook managed to escape with a late season non-conference win. Moving on.
New Hampshire 30 – Richmond 25: This was the big one. New Hampshire’s defense picked off Tick QB Kyle Lauletta 4 times. Which was great, because the Wildcats let Jacobi Green run all over the place to the tune of 154 yards. The Ticks were in control of the CAA, but now will probably need to beat William & Mary in two weeks if they hope to win the league.
Towson 10 – Maine 7: Another matchup of CAA teams that apparently hate scoring and excitement. A nice road win for the Tigers regardless. Towson has won 4 straight and is currently 6-3, leaving them very much in the mix for a playoff bid. We didn’t see that coming.
So as our fantastic guest post reminded us yesterday, this is no time to quit rootin’. Even if we didn’t feel that much like talking playoffs, the outlook was actually a little rosier than we suspected. After looking at lots of predictions and stats, we decided to ask the Dukes’ Domain’s own “Saxkow” to break it down for us. Having geeked out on the various playoff prognosticators that cover FCS for a few years now, we’ve always come back to own guy’s expertise – it’s the best. Thanks Saxkow and take it away!
From an Overall Perspective…
Since I was away last week, there has been a lot of movement within the I-AA landscape. We’ll get to JMU in a moment, but looking at the whole field, it is becoming harder to believe that the Committee will be able to fill out the playoffs with only 7-win teams. With three weeks to go in the season, there are now only 48 teams that can even reach 7 wins. Considering a number of those teams will get in by the AQ, it looks more likely the Committee will have to take some 6-win teams. (To compare to last year, with 3 weeks to go there were 53 teams that could reach 7 wins.) But almost half of those teams are now one loss away from dropping below that 7-win threshold. In the final weeks, I will likely start including some 6-win teams when I start predicting the playoff field.
From a JMU Perspective…
Well…so much for a #1 Seed.
The last 2 weeks saw us lose to both Richmond and W&M and also lose our starting QB for the season. The Defense has looked awful. It would take a miracle for us to get the AQ, so I think we can forget about that.
Now for the good news. We are almost a lock for an At Large. As I mentioned above, not many teams will reach 7 wins this year. We already have that – and with a I-A win. We now have a Bye week to regroup and then we face two teams that are struggling. We still have a very good chance to finish at 9-2. That could still get us a Seed. (Yes that could mean 3 CAA teams getting a Seed, but it will be hard to name 8 teams better than us at 9-2.) Plus, our new QB looks like he will fit into our system fine. (No one can say the offense was weak this week.)
It will all come down to Defense. They must improve or we could be done before December. (I have no doubt they could step it up for one game in the playoffs, but they will need to do that for multiple games if they want to get the championship.
By the Numbers (107 total teams)…
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/18 – 98
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 66
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/18 – 71
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 48
Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/18 – 1
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 8
Here’s the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can’t reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
CAA (9 Teams Alive)
JMU – 7 wins
Richmond – 7 wins
W&M (2)
Towson (1)
Villanova (0)
UNH (0)
Maine
Delaware
Elon
Big Sky (8 Teams Alive)
EWU (2)
Portland State (2)
Southern Utah (1)
Northern Arizona (0)
Montana (0)
North Dakota (0)
Montana State
Weber State
Big South (4 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina – 7 wins
Charleston Southern (2)
Liberty (0)
Kennesaw State
MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T (2)
Bethune-Cookman (1)
SC State (1)
NC Central (0)
MVC (9 Teams Alive)
Illinois State – 7 wins
SDSU (2)
NDSU (2)
W. Illinois (0)
Indiana State (0)
South Dakota (0)
Youngstown State (0)
No. Iowa (0)
So. Illinois
NEC (7 Teams Alive)
StFU (0)
Sacred Heart
Bryant
Duquesne
Robert Morris
Cent. Conn. State
Wagner
OVC (5 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 7 wins
EKU (1)
E. Illinois (1)
Tenn.-Martin (0)
SE Missouri State
Patriot League (6 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 7 wins
Lehigh (0)
Bucknell (0)
Colgate (0)
Holy Cross (0)
Georgetown
Pioneer League (7 Teams Alive)
Dayton – 8 wins
San Diego (1)
Morehead State (0)
Marist (0)
Butler
Campbell
Drake
SoCon (4 Teams Alive)
Chatty (2)
Citadel (2)
W. Carolina (0) – Cannot win AQ
Furman (0) – Cannot win AQ
Southland (3 Teams Alive)
McNeese State – 7 wins
Sam Houston State (1)
Central Ark. (1)
Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
UNH
Villanova
Montana
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Liberty
NC Central
W. Illinois
Indiana State
South Dakota
Youngstown State
No. Iowa
StFU
Tenn.-Martin
Lehigh
Bucknell
Colgate
Holy Cross
Morehead State
Marist
W. Carolina
Furman
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Gardner-Webb (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Jacksonville (caught cheating by the Pioneer)
Stony Brook
Albany
URI
Northern Colorado
Cal Poly
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sac State
Monmouth
Presbyterian
ETSU
Delaware State
Howard
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Tenn. State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Austin Peay
Lafayette
Valparaiso
Davidson
Stetson
Mercer
Sanford
Wofford
VMI
Houston Baptist
NW State
Nichols State
SE Louisiana
Lamar
Stephen F. Austin
Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Harvard
Dayton
McNeese State
Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Cornell
Delaware State
Wagner
Austin Peay
Mississippi Valley State
Conference Analysis
CAA – Richmond and W&M have obviously moved ahead of the Dukes to be at the top of the conference. There is a good chance the conference title will come down to the final week – where both teams will face each other in Richmond. Things could change, though, in the next 2 weeks that could change that. There is a good chance that W&M will win their next 2 games. However, I am not as sure about Richmond. Richmond seems to be a team that plays to its competition – they don’t seem to get as pumped up against lower teams. Teams like Hampton, Elon, and Albany have been able to keep the games relatively close against the Ticks. How will they fare on the road against UNH and Villanova – 2 teams that can be historically dangerous and are fighting for their playoff lives? Even if Rihmond loses one of those games, things will still most likely come down to that final week. But if they were to lose both…? Overall, it looks like there will be three teams from the CAA in the playoffs – Richmond, W&M, and JMU. Towson could finish 8-3 by beating W&M on 11/14 which would probably get them in. But if they don’t win that game, they would finish at 7-4 with no good wins. The same goes for Villanova and UNH – they must win out in order to keep any chances of making the playoffs.
Big Sky – This is a tough conference to call. There are 2 teams tied for 1st place with 5-0 conference records – EWU and Southern Utah. They do not face each other this year. But also, neither of them have wins against teams with winning records. Now their schedules get tougher. Over the next three weeks, they both face NAU and Portland State – the 3rd and 4th place teams – and they each will also face a Montana team. Anything could happen here – both teams could go 3-0, 0-3, or anywhere in between. Portland State should get into the playoffs if they can win 2 of their final 3 games. As we already know, 2 of those games are against EWU and SUU. The other one is next week against Northern Colorado – a game which they should win. NAU needs to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. They have a (non-)win against a lower division team and a very bad loss to UC Davis – but those could be offset with wins over EWU and SUU.
Big South – Surprisingly, the 1st place team here is not Liberty or Coastal Carolina. With their win over Coastal this past weekend, Charleston Southern has taken control of the conference. Next week, they face Kennesaw State – a team playing its inaugural season. If Chuck South wins, they will clinch the AQ. If they lose, they can still get the AQ the next week with a win over Liberty and a Kennesaw loss. Two weeks ago, I had voiced concerns that Coastal might not make it through their conference unscathed. Well, this week Coastal finally faced some good competition – and lost. Now, I do think they will still make the playoffs, but this loss possibly cost them a chance at a Seed. Most of their wins have been against weak teams – and they haven’t been by strong margins. (The two weeks before they lost, they played the two last place teams in the Big South and beat them by a total of 10 points.) It will be tough for anyone else in the Big South to make the playoffs – they will have to win out.
MEAC – The MEAC gave up their AQ to participate in a bowl versus the SWAC on ESPN, so the 1st place team will not make the playoffs. Could a 2nd place team be offered an At Large? I don’t know…but it likely won’t happen this year. A team would to have a really good resume to make that happen and none of this year’s squads cut it.
MVC – Two weeks ago, Illinois State and Western Illinois were tied for 1st and getting ready to face each other. Well, Western Illinois ended up losing that game by 20 and then followed that up with a loss to Youngstown State. They look to now be in deep trouble. Their final three games are all against strong teams (NDSU, SDSU, and Indiana State). One more loss will likely knock them out of the playoffs. Illinois State, however, is in a strong position to win the AQ. If they beat SDSU next week, they will likely take it. They are also now one of the leaders for a top Seed. (If they win out, they will easily get #1 or #2.) NDSU is waiting for Illinois State to stumble – but they will not face each other this year. The Bison should be able to win at least 2 of their final 3 games – which will get them into the playoffs – but they will likely need to win all 3 if they want a Seed. Six of the nine teams still alive are now one loss away from falling out of the playoff race.
NEC – You want parity? Look to the NEC. No team is undefeated in conference play. Everyone is within one game of 1st place. There is no way to tell what is going to happen here. It would be possible for one team (StFU) to reach 7 wins and not take the AQ…but 7 wins would likely not be enough to get an At Large from this conference.
OVC – There are still really four teams in play here, but we are getting closer (possibly) to getting the AQ settled. Jacksonville State has now beaten two of the contenders and won. Next week, they will play the final team – Eastern Illinois. If Jacksonville State wins, it will be tough for them to lose the AQ. Eastern Illinois, EKU, and Tennessee-Martin will be facing each other over the next three weeks. None of them can afford 2 losses (and Tennessee-Martin cannot really afford one more loss).
Patriot – With Colgate’s win over Fordham this past weekend, they are now in the driver’s seat for the AQ. If they win their next 2 games, they will clinch. What this means, is that Fordham is likely to take one of the At Larges. They already have 7 wins – including a win over Army – and will probably get at least one more (they have already played 9 games). If they win out, they could be looking at one of the Seeds. However, that might no be the best thing for them. Since their Bye is the last week of the season, a Seed would mean a long break in between games. Many teams would have trouble with that much time off.
Pioneer – Dayton is now the first team in the country to reach 8 wins. Impressively, three of those wins were against teams that offer some scholarships. Next week, they will have their first chance to clinch the Pioneer AQ – they will get it with a win and a San Diego loss. Most teams in the country will be hoping for that outcome – a 10-1 Dayton team could actually get an At Large. No other Pioneer teams have a shot at that, so if Dayton can get the AQ, the rest of the Pioneer will be out of the discussion.
SoCon – We’re down to four teams left alive – with only two left for the AQ. Simply put, The Citadel and Chatty play for the AQ on 11/14. Whether either team will be eligible for an At Large will likely be determined next week – when these teams take on the two bottom teams of the conference. Both Citadel and Chatty have 6 wins right now. They must win one game in the next two weeks because for both of them, they play I-A teams in the final week. The other two teams alive – Western Carolina and Furman – are one loss away from elimination. They play each other next week, so one of them will then be gone. Furman only has two more games left and they have a I-A win, so if they can win out they will be on the bubble (likely in). WCU, however, has three games left – one of them against Texas A&M. They would have to pull out that huge upset to reach 7 wins. They are probably gone.
Southland – There are now only three teams left alive in the Southland. McNeese State is in first and can clinch the AQ next week if they can beat 2nd place Sam Houston next week. Sam Houston and Central Arkansas are also trying to fight their way in and they will play each other in the final week. That game could be make-or-break for both of those teams.
Drake managed to win our prediction contest for the second time this year. Here’s his guest post on keeping the faith.
For years I’ve read this amazing blog and guessed countless scores. I laid countless goose eggs until this year and now I’ve won TWO prediction contests in one season. Just like the Dukes, I’m having a great year. Now, you may say, “But JMU has lost 2 in a row, the best player in FCS is down and out, and our defense has more holes than a truck stop bathroom wall.” I tend to keep the faith. College football is full of shockers. I’ve been on both sides. Just look at the last few weeks. How many of us would have turned off the TV before the Michigan muffed punt, the Georgia Tech return, or the Miami lateral disaster? Extra sleep is very much important and it’s in those moments when I throw my hands up and go to bed quickly.
But just think for a second. Our backup QB did something few JMU quarterbacks have done in their first start. Matt Jones did a great piece comparing the first starts of some JMU quarterbacks and Bryan Schor’s play last week certainly ranks at the top, especially when you look at the situation in the season and the talent he played against. Side note: That article also made me realize I forgot most of the mediocre QBs we had in between Landers and Lee.
We tend to overlook that W&M is the top rated CAA defense. The next two games (plus this off week) will allow the team to clean up some of the silly mistakes and special teams. Penalties and sloppy special teams are easy fixes. It’s not about talent, but teaching these kids their assignments and going over the basics. Now, defense is a bigger problem for sure, but I’ve seen horrendous defenses pull it together for a run. I’m a Colts fan and that 2006 Super Bowl team had a laughable defense but pulled it together for 4 games (they got blown out by Jacksonville near the end of the season). We have some talented guys. Ankrah is a young beast waiting to be released!
All I’m saying is pump the breaks on this negativity. You guys are so superstitious over some damn helmets. It’s cool if you don’t like them (for the record, I’m okay with them), but to say they should be banished because we lost while wearing them is just insane. A lot of these top ranked teams have weaknesses. Look no further than Richmond and W&M, both of whom we could have beaten. The Bisons are missing their QB and have looked very mortal this year. Think back to 2004, did any of you think near the end of the season that we would win the National Championship? Have faith people! Withers is a man who inspires. I have no doubt he is like a William Wallace type in the locker room and that every player would fight for him until they can’t go on any further. Always believe and always root.
