The Basics
Matchup: JMU at App State
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET, Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC
Weather: Low 40s and Partly Sunny
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -7 , ML -275; O/U 59.5
App State has been up and down this year, and the defense has frequently been lousy. That said, I can’t recommend laying a full touchdown on the road in the hottest and most impactful rivalry game in the Sun Belt East.
How We Got Here
Week 12 was when JMU found itself back in the mix at the top of the Sun Belt.
Count me among those who have called for a more tempered and grounded approach to what is possible in this first season of the Bob Chesney era. At the risk of repeating myself, there is nothing more normal in college football than dropping a couple of sloppy road games after turning over several dozen players and the entire coaching staff.
Yet this JMU team has persevered through those growing pains, and through a little luck, found itself back in position to potentially make its first Sun Belt title game. Last week’s win at Old Dominion, coupled with Georgia Southern’s loss to Troy, leaves the Dukes in a much more realistic position to potentially win the division.
More on this later, but the stakes of this week are very clear. Once again, App State looms as the biggest game of the season.
Three Things to Know About App State
It’s Thriller Time – The history of JMU vs. App State is drama, drama, drama.
Last year, App State won a walkoff in overtime, 26-23, after College GameDay was live from the Quad.
The previous year, App State went up 28-3 but blew a massive lead, Falcons-style, as JMU roared back in the second half to win, 32-28.
Back in FCS-land, App State knocked JMU from the 2007 playoffs, 28-27. The following year, JMU avenged the loss at Bridgeforth with an epic come-from-behind win, 35-32. They won’t even let you into the JMU Oldhead club if you haven’t memorized the highlights from that game.
The point here? When App State and JMU play, expect a barnburner. This year’s 4-5 record means nothing to us.
Judging Appy – There’s been a great deal of brainpower this year devoted to solving whether or not the Mountaineers are good. Since the Liberty game was cancelled in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, App State is 2-3 with home wins over Georgia State and ODU and road losses to Marshall, Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina.
Frankly, there’s a lot of teams in this conference that would beat last-place Georgia State at home and lose to first-place Louisiana and first-place Marshall at their respective stadiums. That doesn’t actually tell us much about where App State lives in the Sun Belt pantheon of greatness. Your mileage may vary.
Frankly, the only thing we can be really sure about is…
The Defense Stinks – Yeah. There’s no sugar-coating it. This is not a vintage App State team, and the main culprit is the defense.
App State ranks sub-100 in Team EPA allowed per play, and the defense is allowing scores on about 94% of red zone trips, which is one of the ten worst marks in FBS.
To my eye, they’re really missing the anchor that Tyrek Funderburk gave them in the defensive backfield last year, and Nate Johnson hasn’t been quite as good at linebacker, among other issues.
While it’s fair to wonder how much the hurricane has complicated this season, allowing 66 points to Clemson and 48 points to South Alabama back in September were probably early warning signs that App State was going to struggle to get off the field this year.
How JMU Can Win
Execute on offense, build an early lead, and let the JMU defense do what it does.
App State has allowed an average of 34 points per game since Sun Belt play started. JMU can take advantage of bad fits and sloppy assignment play to jump in front and force the Mountaineers to play another game from behind.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Officially, I’m recommending Long Leaf IPA this week for a return trip to the high country. For anyone who’s making the trip down to Boone, stop by Appalachian Mountain Brewery to get this excellent 7% American IPA that aims to equal the piney goodness of the local flora.
In the spirit of supporting the Carolinas, I also want to mention a collaboration between AMB and several other North Carolina breweries – Hello From the Holler. It’s a Pale Ale brewed specifically for hurricane relief, with 100% of proceeds going to Helene recovery.
If you’re traveling for the game, grab one and let us know how it is.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 39, App State 30. Alonza continues to look healthy and effective, and the offense cashes in on multiple drives against a suspect defense.
Joey Aguilar and this offense are going to bring it for 60 minutes, and I don’t expect anything short of a close, competitive game. But in the end, I liked a lot of what I saw in Norfolk last week, and I think that continues this weekend in Boone.
Sportsbook Say What?
I was explaining to my wife this week that JMU is in a great position in the Sun Belt East, relative to a month ago. She asked what we still needed to win the conference.
“Well,” I said, “We need to win a big rivalry game on the road at App State this weekend.”
She nodded.
“Then, we need to come home and beat Marshall, who’s currently in first place in the division.”
She looked confused. “That actually sounds pretty hard, though.”
I continued.
“If we do both of those things, and Georgia Southern loses this weekend or next weekend, then we’ll get to play in the championship game – probably against Louisiana, and likely on the road.”
“Wait,” she said. “We have to do all that, just to get the chance to play a third game? That we still have to win? And it’s a road game?”
When you line it up like that, there’s clearly still a lot that can go wrong between now and the first weekend of December. Yet we all felt the seismic nature of Troy’s season-changing win over Georgia Southern last week; from an objective point of view, JMU is clearly in a better position than it was just a few days ago.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the college football futures market, where JMU is suddenly the de facto favorite to win the East and challenge Louisiana for the title.
Those odds are even more interesting when you consider that Louisiana is now likely without starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge for the remainder of the pre-bowl season.
The odds movement is a huge clue that JMU is back to being live to win this thing. Coastal Carolina is an outright favorite to beat Georgia Southern this weekend, and there’s very clearly something wrong in Statesboro right now.
Still, let’s not put the cart before the horse. None of this matters without a win in Boone.
So let’s get down there and find a win, yeah?
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Old Dominion (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET, S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, VA
Weather: 65 and Sunny. What a day for football, with 15 days to go before December!
Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU
Day Job Numbers: JMU -2.5, ML -150; O/U 51.5
Some mid-week movement has taken this line from JMU -3.5 to JMU -2.5. Crossing through that key number of three is a notable development that suggests some major bettors like the ODU side of this game.
(For the record, I have this game highlighted in my college football best bets for this week, too.)
How We Got Here
Emerging from its second bye, JMU played a thoroughly ordinary game against last-place Georgia State. It mounted multiple scoring drives in each of the first three quarters and cruised to a 38-7 victory in Week 11.
Three Things to Know About Old Dominion
Don’t Let the Record Fool You – ODU has been frustratingly inconsistent for most of this year, making it a difficult team to predict. I mean, this is a team that held a fourth-quarter lead against South Carolina and then lost to East Carolina at home in back-to-back weeks.
The result is a team that’s in danger of missing bowl eligibility, which perhaps makes ODU look like an easier opponent than it actually is. The schedule included two P4 schools and zero FCS opponents.
Probably true: If JMU and ODU swapped non-conference schedules, it’s very likely that JMU would be the team floating around .500.
So yeah, don’t let that record fool you into a sense of complacency. These teams are tied in the standings for a reason – they are roughly equal opponents this year.
Developing Offense – ODU has really struggled with quarterback play since the days of Taylor Heinicke, but redshirt freshman Colton Joseph seems like a gamer. Since taking over the full-time job in Week 6, Joseph’s effectiveness in the pocket has steadily ticked up. Entering the JMU game, he’s now logged two straight games with 300 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes.
ODU’s midseason turnaround is directly related to the improvement at quarterback, and it’s a particularly dangerous team now that the offense is more balanced and playing complementary football. The blowout win over Georgia Southern was not a fluke.
Turnover Difference – If there’s one big critique of Joseph and the ODU offense, it’s the tendency to put the ball on the ground. ODU has lost six fumbles since the start of Sun Belt play, and those turnovers played a major role in losses at Coastal Carolina and App State.
In the case of the latter, ODU actually outgained App by more than 100 yards in Boone but lost because it was -3 on turnovers for the game.
JMU has had its own issues with offensive execution this year, but one reason the season has been a success so far is that the defense actually leads Division I FBS football in turnover margin with a +18 net gain. Chasing ODU’s turnover tendency and capitalizing on positive field position could be a key point of emphasis this weekend.
How JMU Can Win
Limit mistakes and capitalize on opportunities.
Okay, that probably sounds like I’m auditioning for a free trip to Davos or something. But when JMU has struggled in tough road games this year, it’s because it’s made awful mistakes and/or failed to capitalize on the opportunities created by its ball-hawking defense.
UL Monroe? The game swung on an 80-yard fumble returned for a touchdown where the offense was probably trying to do a little too much.
Georgia Southern? It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a team go +4 in turnover margin and not be anywhere near winning the game.
JMU can win this weekend if it makes fewer, less costly mistakes than ODU. I’m expecting some serious punting, too, so someone better keep Ryan Hanson’s leg warm.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Lunch by Maine Beer Company. An eastward trip to Norfolk calls for a great beer with oceanic roots, and this northeastern take on a West Coast IPA was named after an injured whale. So there’s that.
You can find this on draft all over northern and central Virginia and in many grocery stores and craft beer shops. I just picked some up at Wegman’s earlier this week!
Official JMUSB Prediction
Old Dominion 17, JMU 13. The Dukes are 0-2 in road games since the big Chapel Hill win, and unfortunately, I think we’re going to see the trend continue this weekend against the Monarchs.
As I’ve said, the key here is offensive execution in an unfriendly environment. I think we all know what the ceiling looks like with this team, but the drive-to-drive consistency just hasn’t been there this year – especially against teams with a pulse.
If JMU limits its turnovers and converts on the high-leverage plays, then of course JMU can win. But for now, I’m predicting a rivalry loss that will sting in the short term but serve as another opportunity for growth in the longer term.
The Basics
Matchup: Georgia State (2-6, 0-4 Sun Belt) at JMU (6-2, 2-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
Weather: 55 and Partly Sunny. Excellent weather, considering it’s Week 11.
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O/U 54.5
The Dukes have covered only one game since September and are a bit of a mystery coming out of the second bye. I would not consider taking a side in this game.
The total is a little more interesting. Thanks to a boom-or-bust offense and a consistently high-performing defense, JMU has now covered four straight unders. If I’m betting anything in this game, it’d be Under 54.5.
How We Got Here
October was the month where reality caught back up with JMU Football. After Harrisonburg maybe got a little high on its own supply in the closing weeks of September, the October results reminded us that 2024 is a rebuilding campaign for JMU’s storied football program. Ups and downs were probably always inevitable this season.
There’s the good: JMU bludgeoned Coastal Carolina in a nationally televised game. It reached conventional bowl eligibility for the first-ever time as an FBS program. And for those familiar with the dark art that is marketing, there was plenty of earned media – a fancy way of saying that JMU was quite publicly visible in traditional and social media sources, even after dropping from the ranks of the undefeated.
Then, there’s the not-so-good: JMU lost both of its road games in October. The second loss came in Statesboro, which handed control of the division to Georgia Southern.
While it’s still technically possible that JMU could edge out the Eagles in a complex, three-way tiebreaker scenario, it’s pretty unlikely following Old Dominion’s Week 10 loss to App State.
Georgia Southern is the likely winner of the Sun Belt East. And following some bye week reflections, I’ll go a step further than that – Southern is probably the correct representative for the division.
Even still, the JMU football community still has plenty of valuable things to focus on. Beyond just the week-to-week focus of winning games, JMU can still earn valuable rivalry wins over Old Dominion and App State. It can still win 10 games this season. It could still earn an excellent bowl matchup against a worthy end-of-season competitor.
So for anyone that needs that gentlest of reminders, just remember – there’s a lot left to play for beyond a possible conference title. The stretch run begins on Saturday.
Four Things to Know About Georgia State
Making the Best of an Impossible Situation – Georgia State was dealt a bad hand this season. The Panthers are already a traditional bottom-feeder, and that status quo was underscored when former Georgia State coach Shawn Elliott left the program after the spring game to take a position as the tight ends coach at South Carolina.
That kind of fire drill rarely ends with anything other than total chaos. GSU brought in Georgia run game coordinator Dell McGee, who has done about as good a job with a challenging situation as anyone could ask for. The Panthers have been competitive in virtually every game they’ve played.
Everything Is On the Table – In betting terms, Georgia State is what we call a high-variance team. In Week 2, the Panthers needed a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter to survive FCS Chattanooga. Then, days later, they beat Vanderbilt. The Commodores subsequently turned around and beat Alabama in Week 5.
The transitional property of wins is not something I make a habit of referencing in routine analysis, but it does speak to the abnormally high volume of outcomes that Georgia State seems to play toward. These days, the Panthers are consistently playing up to their opponents; three of their last four games have finished as one-score games.
Tech-to-State Pipeline – Christian Veilleux won the quarterback job in camp, but the GSU coaching staff made the move to former Georgia Tech quarterback Zach Gibson in the second half of the Old Dominion game. They’ve stuck with Gibson in the weeks since, and that’s who JMU should expect to see on Saturday. For Gibson, the move across town has paid off.
Leaky Run Defense… Again – Before the bye, JMU drew Southern Miss in its second cross-divisional draw, and the Dukes ran the ball right at the Golden Eagles’ dreadful run defense to the tune of about five yards per carry.
Georgia State has a run defense bad enough to rival Southern Miss, ranking 130th in FBS in EPA allowed per opponent rush attempt. They play three down linemen in base at the line of scrimmage, forfeiting size up front for versatility and speed on the back end. Expect another heavy dose of the run as JMU looks to reignite its ground game against a smaller team at the start of its stretch run.
How JMU Can Win
Dominate the clock while playing smart, mistake-free football.
Georgia State is another team that clearly operates at a talent deficit relative to JMU. They have clear vulnerabilities that can be exploited. This should be a great matchup for old-school, smashmouth football. Dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides, and use the run game to set up Alonza for play action deep shots.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Turbo Reaper by 3 Floyds Brewing Company. This is a 7% American IPA that I recently had on draft at a Capital Ale House in Midlothian, and I enjoyed it enough to put it in my notes for BotW.
3 Floyds is an Indiana brewery, so the Virginia market saturation isn’t as high as some of the more local breweries you might know, but it’s still available at Wegmans and all over Northern Virginia.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 29, Georgia State 13. A refreshed offensive line posts a strong game north of five yards per carry, and JMU handles business ahead of next week’s rivalry game in Norfolk.
Happy Homecoming!
For everyone making their way back to Harrisonburg this weekend, travel safely and have a great time.
The football game will take place at Bridgeforth in the midafternoon. For those of you looking to fill up on Homecoming events, remember that the biggest game of the weekend is not at Bridgeforth Stadium at all!
JMU Men’s Soccer is hosting No. 6 West Virginia at Sentara Park at 7 p.m., and there are some major postseason implications on the line.
If you’re looking for an evening activity, or the football Dukes are up 38 at the start of the fourth quarter, you might consider a quick trip down Port Republic to watch one of the biggest JMU athletics games of the year.
As we like to say, JMU is indeed an Everything School, and men’s soccer may very well be in the hunt for a national championship this season. Consider supporting them on Saturday night!
Now, let’s talk football.
The Basics
Matchup: Southern Miss (1-6, 0-3 Sun Belt) at JMU (5-2, 1-2 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
Weather: 65 and Partly Sunny. The football gods are serving up a nearly perfect day of late-October weather for JMU Homecoming.
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -24, ML -3000; O/U 53.5
It’s fascinating to watch a team get thoroughly dominated on the road, then come back and play as a 24-point favorite one week later. But Southern Miss really is this bad, and JMU has shown a tendency for frontrunning this season. I won’t be surprised when JMU covers this number.
How We Got Here
It doesn’t take long to go from darling to dope. After the Ball State game on Sept. 28, the Dukes had wrung up 133 points in two weeks. Everything seemed possible.
One month later, JMU is 1-2 in conference play. The first loss, at UL Monroe on Oct. 5, was written off as what my Appalachian parents and grandparents might call a shoulda-woulda-coulda game. But a second loss last week at Georgia Southern was more existential in nature.
You didn’t have to look hard to see the question. Perhaps you even asked it yourself.
Are we actually any good?
I should have some deeper thoughts on this during next week’s bye. But it’s probably a good time to remember that old sports maxim – you’re never as good as your best game, and never as bad as your worst game.
This up-and-down season has delivered major highs, but also some of the lowest lows we’ve seen in many seasons. That’s the nature of a rebuilding team with a new coaching staff and 50+ new players. It’s rocky. It’s construction in progress.
In a broader college football sense, it’s all refreshingly… normal.
Two Things to Know About Southern Miss
The Will Hall-Sized Elephant In the Room – College Football Hot Seat is one recurring article I write & update during the football season, and unfortunately, Will Hall had been highlighted for a while before Southern Miss dropped the axe on Sunday.
The Golden Eagles are historically a good, consistent program – they posted 18 consecutive winning seasons through the 1990s and 2000s. Unfortunately, Will Hall took over in 2021 and he finished with a 14-30 record. Half of the wins came in 2022. He’s won two FBS games since the start of last season.
Whenever a college or professional team plays a game in the aftermath of a fired coach, it’s common to expect a bit of a dead cat bounce. Maybe JMU is in the unfortunate position of getting the best punch Southern Miss has to offer. However…
There Is No Sugar-Coating How Bad Southern Miss Is – I mean, it is what it is. I’m not trying to be mean, but this team is really bad. On an EPA/play basis, the Southern Miss offense is the worst in the conference and one of the five worst offenses in FBS college football. They only run about 58 plays per game.
Sophomore Ethan Crawford has taken the snaps at quarterback over the last two weeks, but there’s been no clear answer under center all yeaer.
The defense ranks similarly in EPA/play allowed – it’s the worst in the conference and among the worst in FBS, giving up around 450 yards and 38 points per game.
How JMU Can Win
Execute. Forget about Georgia Southern and conference standings and records and Twitter noise and this blog and whatever else is going on right now. Play the game on the field. JMU is the better team by a wide margin.
The only way JMU loses this game is if it beats itself.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Southern Tier’s Pumking. Do visit Pale Fire, Restless Moons, Three Notch’d, and many of the other lovely establishments we have downtown on this fine Homecoming weekend! That said, I allow myself to drink a pumpkin beer or two when I’m within 14 days of Halloween, and I’m currently enjoying this annoyingly named brewery from Lakewood, New York.
It’s available all over – DC Whole Foods, Virginia Beach Total Wine shops, RVA Wegmans, and more. They even have it in the Friendly City Food Co-op on Wolfe Street in the ‘Burg.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 49, Southern Miss 10.
Sure, there are questions. But if nothing else, this JMU team has consistently shown it excels when playing from ahead against bad teams – or even good teams who are stuck in one-dimensional situations.
JMU beats Southern Miss to a pulp, and fans have a long bye week to think about what is possible in November.
Okay, Fine, Let’s Talk About Sun Belt Tiebreakers
I didn’t really want to do this yet, but it became too obvious of a potential discussion point when our friends at Old Dominion beat the brakes off Georgia Southern on Thursday night.
So, with a month to play, let’s talk broadly about what JMU needs over the next five Saturdays.
The most important thing – and I really cannot emphasize this enough – is that JMU must continue to win games. It doesn’t matter what happens up and down the eastern seaboard if the Dukes don’t take care of business.
For fans, that means aggressively making plans to travel to Old Dominion on Nov. 16. That game is now critically important.
Now, for the remainder of the Sun Belt…
For most of this week, the discourse has revolved around Georgia Southern taking three late losses and dropping behind JMU in the standings. In the case of a two-way tie atop the division, this is correct. The first tiebreaker for a two-team tie is head-to-head results. If Georgia Southern and JMU both finish 6-2 in the East, with no other teams in the tiebreak, Georgia Southern is the obvious winner.
However, there’s another scenario that feels particularly apt in the everyone-beats-everyone SBC-East. If 3+ teams are tied with the same record, things get complicated – which is good for JMU! From the official tiebreaker rules:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion;
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
Currently, ODU and Georgia Southern are 3-1 atop the division, while JMU is 1-2.
Imagine a scenario where 1) JMU wins out; 2) Old Dominion wins out except for its head-to-head results against JMU; 3) Georgia Southern loses at Coastal Carolina on Nov. 23 but otherwise wins out.
In this scenario, at least three teams would be 6-2 in SBC play. (If Coastal Carolina wins out, there would actually be four teams in the East at 6-2.)
If Coastal Carolina is included in the tiebreaker, ODU and Georgia Southern would be removed from the tiebreaker because of their inferior round robin record. JMU would win over Coastal.
If Coastal Carolina finishes in fourth place, the three teams would compare their records to fourth-place Coastal using Tiebreaker No. 3, which would award the divisional title to JMU.
There are other scenarios as well, but I don’t necessarily want to create the exhaustive list of scenarios with five games to go.
So, the broad point remains: JMU must take care of business throughout an intense November schedule. It needs a little help from the division, but not quite as much as you might think.
Bona Fortuna, Dukes.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (5-1, 1-1 Sun Belt) at Georgia Southern (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 4 p.m. EDT, Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, GA
Weather: 75 and Partly Sunny. Reasonably comfortable – It’s October, but it’s also Georgia.
Broadcast: ESPN+
Day Job Numbers: JMU -10, ML -350; O/U 58.5
Just like the Monroe game, the Dukes are a popular betting target on the heels of a well-watched blowout win. And just like the Monroe game, this market seems a bit priced out. Laying double digits with JMU in a road conference game is classic square betting behavior. If you’re swallowing the points here, there’s a decent chance you’re going to get blown up.
How We Got Here
After a humbling loss at UL Monroe, the Dukes quickly put the first defeat of the season in the rearview mirror and bludgeoned Coastal Carolina for a third straight year in front of a raucous crowd on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football.
James Madison delivered yet another excellent show on national television and got the bad taste out of its mouth all in one go. Not bad for a short week!
Three Things to Know About Georgia Southern
Game of the Year? – Todd texted me early Thursday morning: “The size of this game kind of snuck up on me. Massive.”
Todd is absolutely correct – not just about the significance of this game, but about how its importance is kind of hiding in plain side.
Georgia Southern is the lone undefeated team remaining in SBC-East play, and an Eagles win on Saturday would give them strong command of the standings. They would have a head-to-head win over both Marshall and JMU. The Dukes would be a two-loss team. App State, the preseason favorite in the East, is 0-3 and still working through bigger issues beyond football.
On the other hand, a JMU win would bring everyone in the East down to its post-Monroe level. It would officially put the Dukes back in the driver’s seat for the Sun Belt title game, with key games against Marshall and at Old Dominion still to come in November.
It’s not hyperbole to say that the winner of this weekend’s game in Statesboro is probably going to win the East. The stakes are large, indeed.
More Opponent Quarterback Drama – If you didn’t catch Georgia Southern’s massive comeback win against Marshall last weekend, it was a doozy. The Eagles trailed by 20 in the final 10 minutes of the game when starting quarterback JC French suffered a head injury that forced him out of the game.
Enter Dexter Williams II, who promptly led a 21-point comeback that stunned the Thundering Herd and kept Georgia Southern alone in first place. In less than one quarter of action, Williams went 10-for-14 passing for 135 yards. He finished with a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown, and an excellent QBR of 93.1.
Reports out of Statesboro are that French is cleared to play this weekend and will be restored to his starting position. But you can bet that JMU is watching tape on both guys, just in case. Don’t be surprised if Williams – a former Indiana quarterback, mind you – makes an appearance.
Passing Game Success – Clay Helton is known for a reasonably effective version of the Air Raid offense, which he (ironically) brought to Georgia Southern in 2022.
Georgia Southern has consistently had one of the better passing offenses in the Sun Belt ever since, checking in at fourth in the conference in passing yards per game this year. The wide receiver pool is deep, and there are a lot of guys involved.
Derwin Burgess is the top guy statistically with 329 yards and two touchdowns this season, averaging about 13 yards per catch. JMU fans might remember him from 2022, since he had seven catches for 84 yards and a score in the last Statesboro game.
But it’s far from a one-man show. Seven different guys have at least 10 catches this year, including a tight end and multiple running backs. Five of them have scored at least once. Like a lot of air raids, Southern has a lot of pieces that can be effective in the flow of the offense, and JMU’s defense can’t succeed by simply taking one of two of them away. This weekend will be a major test for the young JMU defense.
So, yeah, Georgia Southern’s passing game is quite good, and it’s the primary reason it’s in a strong position in the Sun Belt entering Week 8.
Yet for all the good the passing game brings, there’s a whole lot of bad on several other parts of the team. The offensive line is pretty average in pass protection, which isn’t quite what you want from a unit that passes this much. On defense, Georgia Southern is susceptible to getting absolutely dominated on the ground, opening up a very basic formula for complementary football to gash the Eagles on defense while keeping their offense off the field. Speaking of which…
How JMU Can Win
Run the damn ball. Georgia Southern is allowing opponents 5.73 yards per rush. According to my very fancy and expensive football calculator, that is bad.
Southern can slice up the JMU defense with its passing attack, and it will surely have quick passes and other countermeasures available for potential JMU pressure packages. But all of that is ameliorated if JMU dominates time of possession and runs the ball down Southern’s throat.
When Georgia Southern does possess the ball, the bend-don’t-break philosophy is going to be important. The typical 7-points-or-less approach is probably not in the cards this weekend, as Georgia Southern’s offense is just too capable. But when the field shortens up, it’ll be important to force the Eagles into field goals instead of touchdowns. The winning team will likely be the one that scores seven, not three.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
SweetWater’s Tropical High Hazy IPA. A return trip to Statesboro seems like a good time to make a break for your SweetWater of preference. No shame from this guy if you want to just keep it simple and grab a six-pack of 420.
Personally, I’ll be up in the northeast this weekend for yet another wedding in the middle of football season, so it seems like a good opportunity to break out SweetWater’s New England IPA from a local Costco or Total Wine. It’s a strong choice that’s a bit overshadowed by their more popular pale ales.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 32, Georgia Southern 24.
In my opinion, this is the biggest defensive test remaining in the regular season. The Air Raid will stretch JMU’s defensive principles in ways that most other Sun Belt teams will not. If JMU has health concerns along the offensive line, it may struggle early to attack the Eagles where they are most susceptible.
In the end, I think JMU’s talent in specific areas of the field will be the difference in this game. Georgia Southern will score points on offense, and JMU will be locked in another competitive road game. But Southern’s inability to stop the run, and Madison’s individual talent in the defensive backfield, will ultimately be key factors in the outcome of this game.
The Basics
Matchup: Coastal Carolina (4-1, 1-0) at JMU (4-1, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA
Weather: Typical Valley Fall – cool and clear at night, with temperatures potentially falling into the 40s
Broadcast: ESPN2
Day Job Numbers: JMU -9.5, ML -375; O/U 61.5
Given JMU’s up-and-down nature, a point spread out near -10 for a weeknight game feels a bit hefty. Then again, JMU is a semi-public team at this point that still has a win against UNC on the resume, and Coastal Carolina hasn’t delivered a decisive win since Week 1.
Bonus reading – Earlier this week, I wrote a quick JMU vs. Coastal Carolina betting preview on how to approach the total. You can check that out if that sort of thing interests you.
How We Got Here
After an explosive end to September that had JMU fans riding high, the Dukes dropped from the ranks of the undefeated when it lost its second-ever road Sun Belt game at UL Monroe, 21-19.
In some ways, the loss was unlucky. The Dukes outgained Monroe 399-257, but they also allowed a red zone fumble to be returned 82 yards for a touchdown just before halftime that accounted for a swing of 10-14 points.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, JMU had a postgame winning percentage of 80.3%. For those who don’t attend the holy church of analytics, that essentially means that a team given JMU’s game profile and stats should win about four out of five times. As I said – bad luck.
In other ways, though, JMU absolutely made the bed it had to sleep in. Penalties piled up, including several bad pre-snap errors in critical situations. The Dukes went for it on fourth down five times, with four of the attempts needing four yards or greater. They were 0-for-4 on those attempts. Pressured all night, Alonza Barnett finished the game 20-for-47.
The decision that will probably be remembered most from this outing came late. Trailing 21-19 with 4:04 still on the clock and all three timeouts in pocket, the coaching staff elected to roll the dice with a squib kick against an unconventional ULM kickoff formation. The gamble failed, as ULM recovered the ball at midfield, jamming JMU on field position when it forced a stop and got the ball back.
Instead of needing 20 or 30 yards for a game-winning field goal from Noe Ruelas, the Dukes needed at least 50. It never materialized, and Monroe held on for a narrow win that keeps the Warhawks alone atop the SBC-West standings.
Three Things to Know About Coastal Carolina
Fried Beach Chicken – JMU has utterly smashed Coastal Carolina in two meetings since joining the Sun Belt, outscoring the Chants 103-21.
The timing of those games was important. In 2022, JMU played Coastal in a de facto SBC East title game at the end of the regular season, and the Dukes were motivated to make a statement about how good they really were. In 2023, Coastal was the post-App State punching bag that the Dukes used after losing its undefeated status with College GameDay in town the previous week.
The two-year history may leave the impression for some fans that JMU owns Coastal, and that Thursday’s result is a foregone conclusion. To state the obvious, this is a new team and a new staff. Coastal is a good team and a serious threat to win on Saturday.
No Grayson, No Problem – With former coach Jamey Chadwell leaving for Lynchburg after 2022, and 28th-year quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to NC State this past offseason, you could be forgiven for thinking Coastal might experience a short-term decline.
That just hasn’t been the case. Second-year coach Tim Beck has put together a nice roster for 2024. Sophomore quarterback Ethan Vasko is the leader on offense and ranks 39th in FBS with a QBR of 69.4. The Coastal run game isn’t going to blow anyone away, but the Chants do rank first in the Sun Belt in EPA/dropback. Vasko is young, but he’s a definite player.
Six weeks into the season, JMU and Coastal Carolina look like the two teams that were most clearly underrated in the East. The offense that can execute better on Thursday will likely have the inside track to the Sun Belt title game. This is a bigger game than many JMU fans may realize.
Takeaway Kings – James Madison might lead FBS in takeaways, but Coastal Carolina leads the nation in turnovers returned for a touchdown. The defense has found the end zone at least once in four of five games, including all four of its wins.
On the heels of a game where a defensive score proved quite critical indeed, pay attention to when JMU turns the ball over and how those bonus Coastal possessions end. If the Chants wins, there’s a decent chance they were aided by JMU’s offense.
How JMU Can Win
Shake off the loss and play crisp, explosive offense.
Last week, I talked about the need for composure and consistency, as well as my concern that the offense may have a minor crisis of confidence when something eventually goes wrong. That remains true this week, with a suddenly anxious crowd packing Bridgeforth for another night game on a primary ESPN platform.
JMU’s defense is unlikely to shut down the Coastal offense, which means it’s going to need to score early and often to win. This year, that has generally meant connecting on deep balls and executing on fourth and short. I think greater consistency on third and medium is still pretty important, too.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Bell’s Octoberfest. I am not unaware of the infamous reputation that certain fall beers have amongst the esteemed founders of JMUSB, but if ever there was a time to take a long drag from the autumnal chalice, surely it’s the middle of October.
Obviously, there are a lot of options in this lane, but I like this 5.5% ABV from the always-solid Bells Brewery. You can find it at Total Wine and some Wegmans, among other places.
That said, if you’re in Harrisonburg this Thursday like Rob/Todd/me, leave the Bell’s in the cooler and head to Pale Fire, where you can get their Oktoberfest on draft.
The taproom opens at noon – pretty wonderful, since tailgate lots won’t open until 4:30.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 46, Coastal Carolina 34
Both teams find the end zone over and over, and the Chanticleers’ offense generates more than a few frustrated groans among the JMU faithful. “I thought our defense was better than this,” will be something Bridgeforth fans hear in the stadium on Thursday night.
Ultimately, though, the difference in the game is JMU’s ability to stay on schedule by mixing hard runs and play action, and that gives JMU’s offense the decisive edge.
College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Existential CFP Dread In Week 7 (And Beyond)
JMU is currently receiving zero votes in the AP Poll. If CFP rankings existed right now, we can probably assume the Dukes would be in similar standing there.
The reality of the Monroe loss is that JMU probably needs to deliver a few weeks of quality results to offset the memory of Week 6. Boise State and Navy look like the clear-cut favorites to compete for the G5 playoff berth. The Broncos have the current favorite in BetMGM’s Heisman Trophy odds market, while Navy has the benefit of a home game against Notre Dame at the end of the month.
There’s still a lot of season left, and anything is possible. But as things stand now, JMU’s path to the playoff is convoluted enough that it probably doesn’t merit much consideration.
Let’s check back in a few weeks, when CFP rankings are on the horizon and Navy has played its game against the Fighting Irish.
Yes, it is I: NotRob and NotTodd. After torturing my keyboard for years in service of the Dukes, I shamelessly offered my pen in the JMUSB preview department.
I like writing about sports. I love writing about the Dukes. I’ve said this before in other settings, but I actually give Todd & Rob a lot of credit for that. If you time-traveled back to Harrison Hall, somewhere around 2011, you’d have found me frantically reading JMUSB between WRTC classes and Breeze assignments.
After a restless decade with JMU bylines in HERO Sports, the DNR, the RTD, and several other places, I settled down with a day job at BetMGM. Sure, I don’t get to write about the Dukes too much, but I do get health insurance. Life is about tradeoffs, I guess.
Anyway, I mention that because I’ll probably have one or two bonus insights to share from the perspective of someone who works with odds for a living.
Other than that, JMUSB has always had a wonderful, no-nonsense preview formula, so there’s no need to fix what ain’t broken. Here’s my perspective on Week 6: JMU at UL Monroe.
The Basics
Matchup: JMU (4-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at UL Monroe (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. EDT, Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA
Weather: Sunny, 80
Broadcast: Upgraded to ESPNU after JMU’s demolition job in Chapel Hill
Day Job Numbers: JMU -16.5, ML -800; O/U 48.5
This number opened at JMU -14.5 and was quickly bet down to JMU -16.5 by the end of Monday. The area between 14 and 17 is generally considered to be dead numbers, so it’s no surprise that the tremendous betting appetite around the Dukes is smashing this from one key number to the next. If you start to see JMU -17 or lower before kickoff, it’s a big sign that pros really like the boys in purple.
How We Got Here
I think the best way to think about September is to imagine it as a two-act play of non-conference games.
Charlotte and Gardner-Webb made up the first half. The coaching staff had dozens of new players to see and understand. They staged tryouts. Some stuff worked. Others didn’t.
Week 3 – the bye week – was the intermission. During that time off, the coaching staff tweaked some character roles, changed the set design, and emphasized how great the second act might be.
The second half – North Carolina and Ball State – delivered a thunderous conclusion on a grand stage. The Chesney staff was extremely prepared for the UNC game, then followed it up with a meticulous, business-like destruction of a bad Ball State team. It’s hard to argue with 133 points of offense in two weeks.
JMU now enters non-conference play in Week 6 as the betting favorite to win the Sun Belt. That’s the value a splashy September can bring, since the Dukes were looking up at App State, Texas State, and Louisiana prior to the start of this season.
Three Things to Know About UL-Monroe
On the Rise – UL Monroe has three winning seasons in its history as an FBS program. Two of them came in the 20th century, prior to moving to I-AA (now FCS) in the 1980s. Historically, Funroe is not actually all that fun.
New head coach Bryant Vincent might put a real dent in that. An SBC-East draw vs. JMU and at Marshall could be tough sledding, and the Warhawks also have to go to Auburn in November. Still, a 3-1 start with wins against Troy and UAB is a pretty nice start for a new coach at a program which is historically a dead end.
This is not the walkover that many JMU fans (including me) thought it might be in the summer. Don’t be surprised if the Warhawks make their first bowl game since 2012.
A Step Up On Defense – It feels a bit weird to say this, but I am expecting UL Monroe’s defense to challenge JMU more than its recent opponents have. Yes, I am including UNC in that assessment.
I find Parker Fleming’s College Football Insiders to be a helpful tool in scouting the general neighborhood for opponents. There are 134 teams currently in FBS, and Ball State ranks 134th in defensive EPA/play. UNC ranks in the middle of the pack, but by Mack Brown’s own admission, he did a poor job scouting and preparing the team for JMU.
Monroe ranks in the same neighborhood as UNC and will have the benefit of watching a month of tendencies on film. In two games against other G5 programs like Troy and UAB, it has allowed 15 total points. I think JMU’s offense is clearly better than Troy and UAB, but probably not eight full touchdowns better.
Because of the scheme, personnel, and game circumstances, I think Monroe’s defense will be JMU’s toughest offensive challenge to date.
An Opportunistic Offense – The Monroe offense is… well, let’s call it a work in progress. Effective quarterback play is a big problem.
In terms of total yardage, Monroe had barely 100 yards against Texas and was outgained by Troy in a close win. The Warhawks beat UAB last month, 32-6, yet somehow had only 37 more yards of total offense. That’s kind of incredible.
Monroe pulls this off because it relies on a field position game driven by its defense. In a brave new world of analytics and fourth down risk, the Warhawks will drives short fields, then run Max Larson out to kick field goals.
That will create an interesting contrast with JMU, since the Dukes arguably have the better field goal kicker in Noe Ruelas but are far more aggressive in fourth down situations. The Dukes may elect to play more conservatively and take the points in a muggy road game; alternatively, Monroe may feel like it may need to be more aggressive on fourth down to keep up with JMU’s offense.
How JMU Can Win
This is a rare game where I think special teams may take center stage. Monroe’s modus operandi is winning via field position, but that’s difficult to do against a JMU team with elite punting and kicking talent.
JMU can pin Monroe’s one-dimensional offense against its own end zone, then win with short fields of its own.
I think this is also a game where composure and consistency will be incredibly important. One week ago, JMU played a magnificent offensive game, supported by a dreadful opposing defense. Two weeks ago, it played a magical game against an ACC opponent where virtually every single high-leverage play went JMU’s way.
This is a natural letdown spot where the offense will almost certainly experience some regression. Alonza Barnett has been incredible over the last two weeks; he’s also a sophomore with five career starts, and one of them was 13 months ago.
If JMU turns the ball over, or has a string of several empty possessions in a row, it’ll be important for the team to keep the faith through that eventual, inevitable hardship. I have a lot of faith in the leadership of this coaching staff.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Urban South’s Paradise Park. I will be the first to admit the OG JMUSB boys can run circles around me in the craft beer department, especially when we get into the nichier spaces.
Caveats aside, I’m hunting for Louisiana beer this week, where I’m partial to Urban South’s Coop’d Up Farmhouse Ale. But if that proves hard to find, Paradise Park is more widely available and is a 4.5% ABV for all seasons.
That’ll be handy for Dukes of all locations – whether you’re on the back porch in good ol’ VA or sweating through a Louisiana tailgate that might still touch 90 during the day.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 26, UL Monroe 13
It might be an unpopular opinion right now, but I don’t think JMU will score 60+ points in every remaining game this season.
Going on the road to play an unfamiliar conference opponent, several hundred miles away and in a different time zone, is traditionally a difficult thing to do. I watched Bryant Vincent’s media availability this week, and he made several overtures to pack the stands. The coaching staff understands the program-building opportunity that is in front of them this week with JMU in town. I expect the Dukes will get their best punch.
A night game in Louisiana is probably going to deliver frustrating moments for JMU fans. I do think this game will be competitive. Ultimately, I think the potential for big plays on offense is a major separator between these two teams. Barring a 2018-esque avalanche of turnovers, JMU should escape its first conference trip to Louisiana with a win.
College Football Playoff Watch: Your Guide to Manically Tracking The Many Public Enemies of Harrisonburg In Week 6
Syracuse at UNLV (Friday, FS1, 9 p.m. ET) – UNLV is currently ranked and undefeated, so they’re certainly relevant to the CFP discussion. However, sportsbooks aren’t taking them too seriously as a playoff threat, for whatever that’s worth.
Regardless, a third game against a P4 opponent is something we should carefully watch, as I don’t think the Orange are getting a ton of respect here. They’re clearly capable of winning this game.
Navy at Air Force (Saturday, CBS, 12 p.m. ET) – If you haven’t watched Navy yet, give them a screen on an open weekend where you’re not tied down. They’re really good this year, with a quarterback who actually throws the ball! Like, throws it well! Blake Horvath currently leads all FBS quarterbacks in Total QBR, and Navy gets a home game against Notre Dame. The Middies should be taken very seriously as a CFP threat.
Unfortunately, Air Force is very bad this year, so I wouldn’t hold your breath on this one.
Utah State at Boise State (Saturday, FS2, 7 p.m. ET) – Boise State is the big favorite to make the CFP right now, at least according to odds markets. I’m skeptical they’re going to get through a pretty good Mountain West without at least one conference loss, but I don’t think dreadful Utah State will be the one to deliver the potential knockout punch.
This is another one where you can safely assume Boise will live to fight another day.
Florida International at Liberty (Tuesday, CBS Sports Net, 7 p.m.) – Because our neighbors to the south play in a Mickey Mouse conference desperate for fresh meat and TV exposure, they’ll play 100% of their October contests on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Technically, this is a Week 7 game, but since it’s also only 96 hours away, let’s include it here anyway.
Liberty fans love to defend their Charmin-soft strength of schedule, but even they seemed to know the potential damage of losing the App State roadie from their 2024 lineup of opponents. I remain skeptical the all-important poll voters will put Liberty ahead of other qualifying G5 teams in the polls without total and absolute carnage.
That’s especially true this year – not just because of the lingering effects of last year’s Fiesta Bowl blowout, but also because this Liberty team just hasn’t been dominant like last year. The Flames have started game slowly and lethargically, even against bad teams. Given the game script against Mike Houston’s boys a couple weeks ago, it seems pretty unlikely that Liberty would have come back at all if ECU’s future NFL corner hadn’t torn his ACL a couple days earlier in practice.
So that’s what I’m looking for on Tuesday, moreso than the result. FIU lost to Monmouth a couple weeks ago, so this is yet another instance where a JMU-friendly upset looks pretty unlikely. Still, with Liberty sitting idle for about 17 days, and a tendency for sluggishness, the first half of this game could be pretty interesting.
Quick Note from JMUSB HQ
Sorry to inform you but we’re back baby, and we’re going to have a very special surprise poster doing these most weeks starting with next week’s Sun Belt opener at ULM. But just to get us back in the swing, us old guys are doing the first one this season for fun. Maybe nobody reads these, but the three of us enjoy the writing exercise and how it makes us really think about the upcoming game and where we are at a given moment in JMU’s meteoric rise. And occassionally, we might get to publish something that makes us swell with purple pride like this bit last year.
The Basics
Matchup: Ball State Cardinals (1-2, 0-1 MAC) at JMU Dukes (3-0, 0-0 Sun Belt)
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. EDT, Bridgeforth Stadium, The Valley
Weather: Partly Cloudy, humid, 77
Broadcast: ESPN+
Boys in the Desert: JMU -20, O/U 56.5, ML -1200
How We Got Here
A 13-6 nailbiter against FCS Gardner-Webb that the Dukes trailed 3-0 at the half followed by hanging 70 on UNC is truly an insane swing. Ball St. is 1-2, beating a good local-ish FCS team in Missouri St. in their opener before losing to Miami (FL) in their P4 game and narrowly dropping their MAC opener on the road at Central Michigan last week.
How Ball St. Can Win
Slow the Dukes down enough early to put doubt back in the home team. The last two games have been the most divergent from each other from any two we’ve ever seen from JMU. We’re bullish on the Dukes but the way for Ball St. to make this a game is to take the crowd out like in the opener and make enough plays to not let JMU back in it. The Cardinals are legitmately capable offensively – scoring 42 in their opener, moving the ball decently despite getting crushed by Miami in Week 2, and then dropping a shootout 37-34 on the road last week at CMU. In other words, they’re averaging more than 25 points per game despite getting shutout.
On the other hand, the defense is “limited” in terms of athleticism and has given up 34 to FCS Missouri St., 62 to the Canes, and 37 last week. In other words, while they need to emulate Gardner-Webb’s taking out of the crowd, if the Cards are gonna win it sure seems like they’ll need to do it by outscoring the Dukes rather than a slopfest the Bulldogs turned that Week 2 game into.
How JMU Can Win
Start fast and hit a few big plays. It’s really that simple. Sure, we’d love to see progress defensively after a hard-to-interpret performance in Chapel Hill last week. But Ball St. has show almost zero ability to slow anyone down and if the Dukes can hit a couple of what are rapidly becoming their signature big plays early, this should get as ugly as that trip to Coral Gables.
Notes and Updates
Felt like the Dukes had played the Cards before, and sure enough, the FCS Dukes lost back in 1997 in Muncie, Indiana. Couldn’t figure out if our pal Greg Maddox was QB1 that day though.
Ayo Adeyi not listed on the two-deep. He warmed up and then went to the locker room visibly frustrated last week so hopefully he can heal up soon. Still no Tyshawn Wyatt. On the positive side, Taji Hudson listed as a starter this week after playing a bit last week and getting a target – that should boost the offensive firepower!
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Mythos. Your boy got to travel and try a few crazy beers in France and Greece this summer, but the one you can both a) find stateside and b) makes for a great early tailgate beer is one of the Greek OG’s – Mythos. Go to Total Wine in that weird part of the international aisle and find this Miller Lite but more flavor staple.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 45, Ball St. 17
After adjusting to the new team, new staff, and new schemes, our bet is the Dukes are a lot closer to the team we saw last at UNC than the team that sputtered in the home opener. All the breaks won’t go quite as insanley in their favor as last week, but JMU is going to shred the Cards defense and run away with this one. The hype will begin building again heading to Monroe for the SBC opener.
Playoffs?! Darn Right We’re Talking Playoffs
Coaches and Players can choose to avoid this topic. Us fans, we’re gonna have fun it with until we can’t. Until the Dukes are eliminated through losses, we’re noting a few games we’d urge fans to keep an eye on. The BIG one this week is late night out west on the blue turf. JMU fans should root for the following (or at least note the result in games between two competitors for the G5 slot).
Wazzu over Boise St. (FS1 10 p.m.) – Wazzu and Oregon St. are NOT eligible for the CFP except as at-larges, which is extremely unlikely unless Wazzu goes undefeated (which would be extremely cool and not effect the G5 slot) so we’re rooting for the Cougs.
App St. over Liberty (3:30 p.m. ESPN+) – Undefeated Dukes would be ahead of undefeated Flames, but it would be better for everyone else in the G5 to end the Liberty farce right now and avoid the need to go undefeated (JMU still might have to be perfect in a down SBC, but a one-loss MWC champ would have a case).
Fresno St. at UNLV (3:30 p.m. FS1) – Not really sure who to root for here but worth keeping an eye on. Fresno has a good loss to Michigan but is probably the better team long-term so either result works.
A Note from Rob and Todd
Well this is a special one. November 2009. That’s when we went to GoDaddy (then with Danica ads!) and paid a few bucks for a domain name and a site. Our memory is a little fuzzy after that but JMU was about to play Towson in the last game of the season. They had just beaten UMass for a third straight win to get back to 5-5 after a dismal start to that year. JMU would blow out the Tigers like usual to clinch nearly a decade of not having a losing record, something that felt like a mere consolation prize given they’d long since been eliminated from 1-AA playoff contention that year. Pressure wasn’t even truly builidng on Mickey yet given the run they’d been on from ’04-’08. At the time, we were questioning whether starting the site at the end of a football season was even a good idea and thinking maybe we should wait till next year. Thankfully we didn’t wait. Except for Justin and Swag and Michael, we didn’t have anyone reading and it gave us eight months or so to learn a bit about what we were doing. Our worries were whether basketball could ever be good again, whether our friend coaching the field hockey team would keep things rolling, what ODU starting football would mean for the CAA, and how much beer content was appropriate for the “blog.”
Here are some things we never even considered for a single second: That JMU sports would turn into a bona fide rocket ship. That podcasts would exist. That we would most do that instead of this someday. That we’d still be doing this nonsense heading into 2024 (we didn’t even consider 2024 as something that would happen ha). And that three days before Christmas in 2023 JMU would be ranked in the AP Poll in both football and basketball and we would be writing a preview for a friggin’ bowl game in Texas against Air Force!
Thanks to all of you for sharing a small bit of your lives with us over these last 14 years! We love you and hope y’all have a wonderful holiday week!
We’re also gonna re-run the incredible guest piece from current JMU student Annalee Hunniford all about Gameday week from the student perspective. If you missed it back during Coastal week, you should read it as she wrote the kind of raw, unfiltered good shit we used to aim for but have slowly mellowed away from without even realizing it. When she reached out we were skeptical for a moment. But then we read it! And holy hell did it make us proud to be Dukes and so reassured about everything we’ve been saying on the pod about how these students are going to be an entirely different breed of JMU fan than anything prior to about 2015. Students now are fans from Day One and they bleed purple without any hesitation about hanging onto whatever shade of orange that may have been hanging in their childhood homes. Hope you love it as much as we did and enormous thanks to Annalee!
The Basics
Matchup: #24 JMU Dukes (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) at Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EST, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Weather: 62, cloudy
Broadcast: ABC (!)
Boys in the Desert: JMU -2, O/U 40.5 (hoo boy that’s a service academy number)
How We Got Here
Both of these teams spent a few weeks this season as America’s darling. The Falcons started 8-0 and were the highest ranked G5 team headed into what was supposed to be a coronation week when they would trounce Army and lock up the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Whoops. An injured QB and an avalanche of turnovers in a devastating home loss sent their season into a tailspin from which they never recovered – ending the year with four straight losses. But Air Force appears to have their starting QB, Zac Larrrier, back for this game and seem primed for a better performance.
After Air Force’s loss, the Dukes moved into that “G5 darling” status for a few weeks until their own devastating loss and the subsequent upheaval of a coaching change and tons of players jumping in the portal. But thankfully most of those guys stayed committed to their teammates and completing the first bowl season in JMU history and the two-deep roster for tomorrow looks pretty solid all things considered.
How Air Force Can Win
Do not turn the ball over and get off the field on third down defensively. Air Force’s offense has never been the true triple option like their rivals at the other academies. They’ve always had more big-play potential (essential in the MWC) but they still win with precision execution and by limiting their opponents number of possesssions. But when they turn it over – thus giving extra possessions to offenses – its a killer. It’s always a bit simplistic to say a game will be determined by one or two things but when an academy is involved – it often is this straightforward. We expect a couple trick plays for sure from both teams given the extra prep time for this game, but otherwise this game seems predictable. If each team has only 7 or 8 possessions (think NDSU) and Air Force wins the turnover battle, they’ll be in great shape. If things get rolling offensively, it’ll be a different story.
How JMU Can Win
Get off the field on third down. The Falcons’ system is designed to hit an occassional big play, but it’s best asset is how often it gets them into 3rd and short. Our guess is the vaunted JMU run defense is going see a whole bunch of 3rd and 2 situations and so much of this game is going to come down to making a stop in these situations. The Dukes have struggled to find pass rush a bit since Jalen Green’s injury but that actually may not be as big of a deal in this one. And Kamara opting out doesn’t help. But given all three big boys inside (Carp, Tucker, and Bush) are good to go and the portaled LB’s (Fisher and JWalk) both are playing, there’s no reason to think JMU can’t be a reasonable facsimile of the stout rush defense they played all year. We’d also expect to see a whole lot of Reimenenq, Chukweneke, and Meehan in the box to bolster the run stopping as well.
Offensively the Dukes baseline goal needs to be to avoid three and outs. Air Force will inevitably go on a eight-minute drive at some point and the offense absolutely cannot afford to push the defense right back out there time and again. JMU will want to bust out some big/trick plays at some points, but picking their spots is critical.
JMUSB Beer of the Week
Hardywood Kentucky Christmas Morning. It tough to drink these ABV monsters with coffee in them very often. We love ’em but the caffeine is often a non-starter in the evening. But it’s Christmas and let’s be honest, we’re all eating and drinking too much and sleeping odd hours and generally having a marvelous time treating our bodies terribly the next week so if there’s ever a time for an imperial milk stout with all the fixings it’s definitely mid-afternoon on December 23rd.
Official JMUSB Prediction
JMU 24, Air Force 23 – a late touchdown from Taji Hudson for the win!
Special Student Retrospective on All the Incredible Things From Gameday Week by Annalee Hunniford (Class of 2025)
Hello fellow dukes and friends!
My name is Annalee and i am a Junior here at JMU. It’s currently thanksgiving break
and i just got my wisdom teeth out yesterday, so please excuse any run on sentences
and random prose.
a quick intro
last Wednesday during my evening class, my professor was talking about an old
Harrisonburg bar called the “Highlawn Pavilion”. the glory in which he described this bar
peaked my interest because in 2023, the Harrisonburg bar scene is absolutely nothing
to write home about. therefore, i obviously had to google this bar, which landed me here
at Rob & Todd’s blog, on a guest article written about “the best short lived Harrionburg
bars”. i spent the better part of the 2 1/2 hour class reading their blog and imagining the
savory Harrisonburg social scene that i never got to experience. things are quite
different these days it seems; the bar scene is small and strict and the frat parties and
tailgates usually don’t last more than a few hours before getting busted. regardless, i
still have the time of my life every weekend. JMU is the BEST school and i will die on
that hill. BUT I DIGRESS… i come from an SEC family, so little ol’ freshman annalee
was determined to make the most of CAA sports, regardless of the “commie” vibes they
gave off. Fall semester of 2021, i was one of the only lunatic freshman standing at the
front of the basketball arena’s student section screaming and holding a sign depicting
“FUCK THE CAA”. you could catch me at every sporting event in head to toe purple,
carrying some random sign i scribbled in my dorm room. when JMU switched to the
SBC, that’s when things REALLY started to get good. as a then sophomore, i had more
freedom; a car, a job, an apartment with a tv….and the money to buy espn+ so i could
indulge in all the JMU Sports i wanted. thus began the mass frenzy of students and
commentators bugging the N*AA to LET US BOWL!
the calm before the storm
flash forward to November 2023. i don’t think i can put into words the excitement
coursing through the student body’s veins when we heard ESPN College Gameday was
coming to Harrisonburg. when the news broke across social media, my roommates and
i were shrieking in our living room; their enthusiasm stemmed from the impending arrival
of the Jonas Brothers, while mine was fueled by the anticipation of College GameDay
spotlighting our team as we prepared to whoop up on some ‘neers (or so i believed).
the only thing i’d kept from an ex-boyfriend during my freshman year was a 2017
College Gameday shirt from the last time ESPN graced JMU. i whipped that thing out
and strutted around campus while everyone asked me where they could get one. you
see, the excitement level was unparalleled because this recognition doesn’t happen to
us Dukes. until this year, we were overlooked by mainstream sports media. the
university’s stringent administration and local PD leave little room for revelry, and school
spirit suffers when students routinely leave games at halftime. when the news hit that
College Gameday was headed to Harrisonburg, all hell broke loose in the best way
possible. at the Pat McAfee show on Friday, Coach Curt Cignetti ignited a collective fire
within us as he vociferously criticized the NCAA for denying us a bowl game. perched
atop my tall friend’s shoulders, the crowd and i chanted “TALK YO SHIT” at Cignetti, a
slogan which i later made into my gameday sign. Pat in his sleeveless JMU Football
tank top was the most attractive and energetic motivator of school spirit we’ve seen yet.
that dude is something else!
GAMEDAY
my business fraternity friends and i decided we were going to host a 4am “marty”
(morning party) on Saturday. half of us camped out on the quad Friday night in hopes of
getting a spot in the pit, while the other half opted for an early bedtime, popping
melatonin at 7pm (myself included). the plan was simple; get to the party by 4am, rage
our faces off, then walk to the quad by 6am. my mom thinks i’m crazy, but this is the shit
i live for. after all, when else would it be socially acceptable to indulge in vodka
monsters at 4am?
when my alarm went off at 2:45am, i was UP & AT ‘EM. win or lose, the student
body was dedicated on that fine saturday morning. i was astounded at the marty’s
turnout. every Duke in town, past and current, was up and ready to fucking rumble.
even those unfamiliar with or uninterested in college football found themselves in town,
swept up in the infectious excitement ahh, there was an unmistakable energy
permeating the air this weekend.
picture this: it’s 4am and our downtown house is packed full of dukes, hokies,
hoos, and anyone who made the trip down 81 (because, at JMU, hospitality is our forte).
if there’s one thing i’ve learned from our less-than-ideal streak of 12pm kickoff regular
season games, it’s that in order to get people to show up before 9am, someone has got
to take one for the team and pick everyone up. so there i was, cruising down devon lane
in my soccer-mom Honda CRV at 3:45am, picking up anyone who was ready. one of
my friends hopped in the car sporting bloodshot eyes courtesy of yakking from a 3am
empty stomach tequila shot (i never claimed we were the brightest bunch). to my
satisfaction, the box of pancakes i had meticulously prepared the night before was
devoured within 30 minutes of my arrival. those pancakes were my feeble attempt to
ward off the fraternity’s inevitable 4am puking-from-drinking-on-an-empty-stomach.
there ain’t nothin’ more degenerate than blasting house music and being able to
stomach vodka and pancakes at 4am!
by 6am, the “marty” crowd had stumbled down to the quad. my white heeled
cowboy boots were stuffed with airplane bottles of pinnacle vodka, and we ripped one
last shot before bounding out the door. the dimly lit streets were aglow with people
adorned in all kinds of purple and gold. the quad transformed into an organized
madhouse of 26,000 people; a sight so beautiful and American that i shed a tear. having
attended nearly every sporting event at JMU over the past two years, i can attest that
nothing compared to the school spirit and infectious excitement that must’ve been
blowing through ESPN’s quad speakers. i pondered how the morning would go—would
the school and local PD let us revel in our fun, or would they clamp down as they often
do, in fear of the early 2000’s springfest riots surfacing again? as the sun started to rise,
it became evident that this crowd of dukes was going to stay planted on the quad until
tailgate time. i was both delighted yet surprised by how well everyone behaved, even
with hours of liquor in our systems.
my group and i secured a spot on the famed “kissing rock”, with an eye-level
view of the quad in all its morning glory. the rock lived up to its name when, at 7am, i
glanced over and saw my roommate unsteadily macking on some dude (isn’t that a bad
omen, to kiss on the kissing rocks? someone verify or deny in the comments please).
embracing my inner wannabe celebrity, i vlogged the whole morning and time stamped
each update. by 9am, the crowd was ROARING, prompting ESPN officials to declare it
the most spirited Gameday crowd they’d seen in years. when JMU wants to show out,
we show OUT! College Gameday encourages crowds to make and bring signs to hold
up in the background of the show. at JMU, the signs being held up depicted a wild array
of opinions, colors, and choice-words for the NCAA. to an outsider uneducated on
college football, witnessing the crowd might have suggested that JMU was playing a
team named “NCAA,” given the way the signs shit them. some of the best signs i saw, i
can’t even repeat here. the Jonas Brothers and Bailey Zimmerman took the stage
around 9am, performing just one song—a bit of a letdown, but i don’t think anyone was
there solely for their performance. personally, i would’ve been content with a local DJ
spinning hits all morning; the music wasn’t the primary motivation for this spirited crowd.
as game time drew near, the chants got louder. App State was going to hear
from us dukes, win or lose! on that beautiful Saturday morning, 26,000 diverse
individuals shared one commonality: we all bled purple. i’ve never seen JMU exude
such spirit, and while i’d like to believe it will happen again, we did break the Gameday
attendance record, so probably not. it was the most fun i’ve had in college thus far and
these memories will stay with me for life. i now understand the way my dad raves about
his alma mater’s football games and why i grew up in those colors. my future kids will
likely emerge from the womb wearing purple and gold. i’m not a writing major so i don’t
really know how to wrap this amateur article up, but i’ll leave you with a saying: ALL WE
MUST COMPLETE IN LIFE IS DEATH, TAXES, AND DUKES. IT’S ROLL DUKES
UNTIL I FUCKING DIE, BABY. my face hurts now from the wisdom being extracted out
of my teeth, and with that, goodnight.
The Dukes have been through this before and we’ll go through it again. Being a coaching factory is stressful, but it means you’re winning. A lot. But here’s a snapshot of what the last four JMU coaches have done:
Mickey – Built the program, won the first Natty
Withers – modernized recruiting and fundraising; First Gameday
Houston – Won the second Natty. Locked the Gates! Second Gameday
Cignetti – 52-9, 19-4 in FBS transition, Third Gameday
The next coach has a program and a university that’s in an entirely different place than it ever was during any of those previous hiring cycles. So here’s an initial list of candidates, with notes but in no particular order (other than the categories themselves), to win the first official Sun Belt title and take the Dukes to the playoff!
Serious Internal JMU Candidates
These guys should be serious candidates and are potential coaching stars. They would likely stablize the current underclassmen and recruits. Is that worth it long-term if you’re unsure on any of them as the head of the snake? Would they rather be a HC than go for $ w/ CC?
Tino Sunseri – seems like a star candidate, ‘cruitin’, QB whisperer
Bryant Haynes – recruiting and D scheme, would need OC
Mike Shanahan – scheme great, not certain where he is on ‘cruitin’
Legitimate External Candidates
All of these should be taken seriously and have to be on any “long-list.” Question here is can/will JMU afford them and will they take a chance without a boss since Bourne is leaving? JMU offered to make Cignetti the highest paid coach in the Sun Belt and increase the salary pool for assistants. If JMU is serious, that should be enough for most of these guys.
Rich Rodriguez – HC Jax St., enormous track record, recruits this part of the country now
Chuck Martin – HC Miami, Oh – solid prospect, probably a better job but could we
actually pay him more than currently making?
Ja’Juan Seider – PSU RB Coach – absolute beast recruiter in the Franklin mold, should be on all
short lists
Joe Harasymiak – Rutgers DC, former Maine HC – Probably one of our favorite candidates in terms of skill
(we know he can flat-out coach from Maine days), age, and potentially wanting the job
Jerry Mack – Tennessee RB Coach, former North Carolina Central Head Coach – HC experience and
recruiting prowess that took him to Tenn.
Drew Mehringer – Oregon TE Coach – former JMU assistant under Withers, offensive guru,
young, ‘cruitin’
Tony Gibson – NC State DC – Incredibly exciting prospect, does he want to be a HC now?
Josh Gattis – Maryland OC – local recruiter, good coach, is his agent planting his name though?
Manny Diaz – PSU DC – definitely just wants to coach again. Great recruiter, will make Cig’s game mgmt look incredible though.
Trendy FCS Names
Getting players up from FCS with something to prove has been a great plan the last two years. Could it work with a Coach or does it end up like ECU?
Bob Chesney – Holy Cross HC
Clay Hendrix – Furman HC
Willie Simmons – FAMU HC
Fringier External Candidates
Alex Atkins – FSU OC – arguably #1 choice (recruiting, creativity, etc.) but makes way more
already and could be positioned for a bigger job next year.
Jerry Kill – HC New Mexico St., former HC App, poor man’s RichRod, gotta peek under the
hood, obviously has recruited the area and would piss off App sooo much!
Bobby Hauck – Montana HC – proven great coach, baggage
The Lunatic Fringe
Someone will bring them up; they would be shocking for JMU
Dana Holgerson
Both Grudens
Other JMU-ties Candidates
These guys are all going to be mentioned by JMU fans and boosters who know them and have an opinion. We mostly do not share those opinions.
Scott Lemm – HC Bridgewater, successful HC experience, bleeds purple, can he recruit at this level? Could another new guy convince him to come be OC/OLine/etc. first? Lots of other Dukes on his staff now/past
John Miller – JMU RB coach, time at Texas for ‘cruitin’
Justin Rascati – Vikings Assistant OLine, was Chattanooga OC so has been in college
John DeFilippo – USFL New Orleans Breakers HC; has been interested before; never recruited
DeLane Fitzgerald – HC, Southern Utah (FCS), former Frostburg St. HC
Blaine Stewart – Tight Ends Coach, WVU
D.J. Bryant – Penn St. Recruiting Coordinator
Dudzik, Schor, Hawkins are all starting out in the business
Stinespring – Roanoke College HC, for the 100th time, no.
Mike Houston – results speak for themselves, particularly once forced to build a roster
Our Personal and Early Uneducated Favorites
- Shanahan and/or Haynes and/or Sunseri
- Harisymiak, Gibson, Mack, RichRod
